海平面上升情景下辽东湾海岸侵蚀及影响评估
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摘要
基于海洋站潮位观测和中国沿海海平面变化影响调查等数据,分析了辽东湾沿岸海平面变化及海岸侵蚀状况,并定量评估了未来海平面上升情景下,辽东湾两岸典型沙质海岸侵蚀影响和沙滩养护投入。分析预测和评估结果表明:1980-2017年,辽东湾沿海海平面上升速率为3.0 mm/a,其中辽东湾东岸沿海海平面上升速率明显高于西岸。2009-2017年,辽宁营口白沙湾、绥中网户、绥中南山港和绥中团山气象观测场岸段后退和下蚀较为严重,部分岸段滩肩蚀退达2～3 m/a。预计2100年,辽东湾沿海海平面上升幅度在20～48 cm之间,由海平面上升引发的辽东湾海岸侵蚀土地损失为23.1 km2,土地经济损失为1410万元。为减缓海岸侵蚀,旅游沙滩和一般沙滩养护总投入分别为11亿元和46亿元,全岸段养护成本较高,应选取旅游沙滩等重点岸段进行养护。
Based on tide gauge observation and sea level change influence investigation data, sea level changecharacteristics and coastal erosion status is analyzed. Meanwhile, potential sandy coast erosion and nourishment cost undersea level rise scenarios is assessed along Liaodong Bay. Results show that: sea level rise rate along Liaodong Bay coast was3.0 mm/yr during 1980-2017, with higher rate on the east coast than that on the west coast. During 2009-2017, on thebackground of sea level rise, sandy beaches along Baisha coast and Suizhong coast in Liaodong Bay were eroded successively,part of which is retreated by 2～3 m/yr. Sea level along Liaodong Bay coast is predicted to rise by 20～48 cm in 2100. And sea-level-rise-induced dry land loss is predicted to reach 23.1 square kilometers along Liaodong Bay, with corresponding to landloss cost of 14.1 million Yuan. It is optimal to nourish key beaches since the cost is huge for whole coastline nourishment,where the cost for tourist and common beaches are 1.1 and 4.6 billion Yuan, respectively.
Based on tide gauge observation and sea level change influence investigation data, sea level changecharacteristics and coastal erosion status is analyzed. Meanwhile, potential sandy coast erosion and nourishment cost undersea level rise scenarios is assessed along Liaodong Bay. Results show that: sea level rise rate along Liaodong Bay coast was3.0 mm/yr during 1980-2017, with higher rate on the east coast than that on the west coast. During 2009-2017, on thebackground of sea level rise, sandy beaches along Baisha coast and Suizhong coast in Liaodong Bay were eroded successively,part of which is retreated by 2～3 m/yr. Sea level along Liaodong Bay coast is predicted to rise by 20～48 cm in 2100. And sea-level-rise-induced dry land loss is predicted to reach 23.1 square kilometers along Liaodong Bay, with corresponding to landloss cost of 14.1 million Yuan. It is optimal to nourish key beaches since the cost is huge for whole coastline nourishment,where the cost for tourist and common beaches are 1.1 and 4.6 billion Yuan, respectively.
引文
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季子修,1996.中国海岸侵蚀特点及侵蚀加剧原因分析.自然灾害学报,(2):65-75.
郑文振,1999.我国海平面年速率的分布和长周期分潮的变化.海洋通报,18(4):1-10.
国家海洋局,2018,《2017年中国海平面公报》.北京:国家海洋局.
袁蕾,马恭博,王伟伟,等,2017.2014-2015年辽东湾东岸砂质海滩海岸侵蚀现状评价.海岸工程,(3):22-30.
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薛春汀,2016.滦河冲积扇-三角洲的范围和类型及其演化.海洋地质与第四纪地质,36(6):13-22.
Bruun P,1962.Sea-level rise as a cause of shore erosion.J.Waterway.Harbours Div.88,117-130.
Costanza R,Arge R,Groot R,et al,1997.The value of the world’s ecosystem services and natural capital.Nature,Vol.386:253-260.
Cozannet GL,et al,2014.Approaches to evaluate the recent impacts of sea-level rise on shoreline changes.Earth-Science Reviews,138(6):47-60.
Cazenave R J N A,2010.Sea-Level Rise and Its Impact on Coastal Zones.Science,328(5985):1517-1520.
Gutierrez B T,Plant N G,Thieler E R,2011.A Bayesian network to predict coastal vulnerability to sea level rise.J.Geophys.Res.Earth Surf.116,15.
IPCC,Climate Change 2013.The Physical Science Basis,Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,S.Solomon et al,Eds.(Cambridge Univ.Press,Cambridge,2013).
Karunarathna H,et al,2016.Linkages between sediment composition,wave climate and beach profile variability at multiple timescales.Marine Geology,381(000):194-208.
Leatherman S P,Zhang K,Douglas B C,2013.Sea level rise shown to drive coastal erosion.Eos Transactions American Geophysical Union,81(6):55-57.
P Shearman J B A J,2013.Trends in Deltaic Change over Three Decades in the Asia-Pacific Region.Journal of Coastal Research,29(5):1169-1183.
Ruggiero P,et al,1997.Extreme Waves and Coastal Erosion in the Pacific Northwest.in Oceans.
Yates M L,Le Cozannet G,2012.Brief communication‘Evaluating European coastal evolution using Bayesian networks’.Nat.Hazards Earth Syst.Sci.12(4):1173-1177.
王慧,刘克修,范文静,2013.渤海西部海平面资料均一性订正及变化特征.海洋通报,3(3):15-23.
王玉广,李淑媛,苗丽娟,2005.辽东湾两侧沙质海岸侵蚀灾害与防治,海岸工程,(1):9-18.
庄振业,王永红,包敏,等,2009.海滩养护过程和工程技术.中国海洋大学学报(自然科学版)自然科学版,39(5):1019-1024.
苗丰民,庄振业,1996a.辽东湾东部砂岸严重蚀退及其原因分析.海洋环境科学,(1):66-72.
苗丰民,李淑媛,符文侠,等,1996b.辽东湾东部沙岸的近期变化及演变趋势.海洋学报,18(2):74-84.
季子修,1996.中国海岸侵蚀特点及侵蚀加剧原因分析.自然灾害学报,(2):65-75.
郑文振,1999.我国海平面年速率的分布和长周期分潮的变化.海洋通报,18(4):1-10.
国家海洋局,2018,《2017年中国海平面公报》.北京:国家海洋局.
袁蕾,马恭博,王伟伟,等,2017.2014-2015年辽东湾东岸砂质海滩海岸侵蚀现状评价.海岸工程,(3):22-30.
谢高地,鲁春霞,成升魁,2001.全球生态系统服务价值评估研究进展.资源科学,23(6):5-9.
薛春汀,2016.滦河冲积扇-三角洲的范围和类型及其演化.海洋地质与第四纪地质,36(6):13-22.