孑遗植物长苞铁杉(Tsuga longibracteata)分布格局对未来气候变化的响应
|
摘要
长苞铁杉(Tsuga longibracteata)是中国特有的珍贵树种,不仅对研究裸子植物的系统发育、古生态和古气候具有重要作用,而且该树种具有造林、用材和药用等方面的较高价值。研究长苞铁杉在气候变化下的分布格局变化是制定其保护和可持续利用的重要基础。采用最大熵模型(MaxEnt),结合不同时期(当前、2050年和2070年)和不同二氧化碳排放情境下(RCP2.6和RCP8.5)的气候因子变量,探讨气候变化与物种地理分布格局的关系,预测长苞铁杉的潜在分布区变迁。本研究考虑了空间约束对物种分布的限制作用,构建了气候因子预测模型(C)和气候+空间约束因子预测模型(C+S)分别进行潜在分布区预测,比较其结果差异。结果显示,最干月降水量和温度年较差是影响长苞铁杉地理分布的主导气候因子,空间约束因子对长苞铁杉未来的地理分布有重要影响。随时间年限增加,长苞铁杉总潜在适生区面积降低,特别是中高等级的适生区面积有不同程度地减少,分布范围总体向北移动,这些变化趋势在RCP8.5情境下更加突出。这一结果表明未来气候变化会导致长苞铁杉种群分布范围收缩和生境适宜度下降,加剧其受胁程度。加入空间约束因子后,C+S模型的预测精度更高,结果更符合长苞铁杉的迁移、扩散特性。长苞铁杉未来的核心分布区仍位于现存的湘、桂、黔结合部,表明其具有"原地避难"的特性,应进一步加强对现有野生资源的保护。渝、川、鄂结合部的大巴山等地区是未来气候变化下长苞铁杉的理论分布区域,可作为长苞铁杉应对未来气候变化的引种地区,应提早进行人工引种、栽培等前期研究。研究结果可为气候变化背景下长苞铁杉的保护、物种迁地保存和可持续管理提供科学依据,也可为准确预测濒危、珍稀植物的地理分布范围提供方法参考。
Tsuga longibracteata is a unique,precious,relic tree species in China,which has been used for afforestation,aswell as timber and medicine. Further,the plant is worth studying because it is important in the study of phylogeny of gymnosperms,paleoecology,and the Paleoclimate. Predicting changes in suitable distribution areas of Tsuga longibracteata under climate change scenarios are an important basis for formulating its conservation and development strategy. In this study,the Maximum Entropy Model( MaxEnt) was used to explore the relationship between climate change and the geographical distribution of the species in different time periods( current,2050,and 2070) and carbon dioxide emissions( RCP2.6 and RCP8.5),to predict the changes in the suitable distribution areas of Tsuga longibracteata. In addition,the spatial constraints on species distribution were considered,and the climate factor prediction model( C) and climate +spatial constraint factor prediction model( C+S) were respectively used to predict the changes in potential distribution areas of the tree. The results showed that the precipitation for the driest month and the annual temperature range were the dominant climatic factors affecting its geographical distribution with spatial constraints on having some important influences.With the increase in time,the total suitable distribution area of the tree was reduced,especially the most and more suitable distribution areas decreased greatly and shifted towards the north,which were more prominent trends in RCP 8.5 scenario.Our findings indicated that future climate change may lead to shrinkage of the Tsuga longibracteata population and decreased its suitable habitat area; thus,increasing threats to its population. On adding the space constraint factor in the model,the prediction accuracy of the C + S model was higher,and the results more strongly fit with the migration and diffusion characteristics of the tree. The core distribution area in the future was still located at the junction of the three provinces in Hunan,Guangxi,and Guizhou,where the tree is currently distributed,indicating the junction is a refuge place for the tree in the future climate changes. In addition,the Daba mountain area in combination with the Chongqing,Sichuan,and Hubei are the theoretical distribution area of Tsuga longibracteata in the future under climate change. They can be used as new introduction culture areas of the tree under the future climate change. The results provided a scientific basis for the conservation and sustainable management of the species in the context of the climate change,and a case integrating spatial constraint into a climate model for species distribution prediction,which will benefit accurate prediction of the geographical distribution of endangered and rare plants.
Tsuga longibracteata is a unique,precious,relic tree species in China,which has been used for afforestation,aswell as timber and medicine. Further,the plant is worth studying because it is important in the study of phylogeny of gymnosperms,paleoecology,and the Paleoclimate. Predicting changes in suitable distribution areas of Tsuga longibracteata under climate change scenarios are an important basis for formulating its conservation and development strategy. In this study,the Maximum Entropy Model( MaxEnt) was used to explore the relationship between climate change and the geographical distribution of the species in different time periods( current,2050,and 2070) and carbon dioxide emissions( RCP2.6 and RCP8.5),to predict the changes in the suitable distribution areas of Tsuga longibracteata. In addition,the spatial constraints on species distribution were considered,and the climate factor prediction model( C) and climate +spatial constraint factor prediction model( C+S) were respectively used to predict the changes in potential distribution areas of the tree. The results showed that the precipitation for the driest month and the annual temperature range were the dominant climatic factors affecting its geographical distribution with spatial constraints on having some important influences.With the increase in time,the total suitable distribution area of the tree was reduced,especially the most and more suitable distribution areas decreased greatly and shifted towards the north,which were more prominent trends in RCP 8.5 scenario.Our findings indicated that future climate change may lead to shrinkage of the Tsuga longibracteata population and decreased its suitable habitat area; thus,increasing threats to its population. On adding the space constraint factor in the model,the prediction accuracy of the C + S model was higher,and the results more strongly fit with the migration and diffusion characteristics of the tree. The core distribution area in the future was still located at the junction of the three provinces in Hunan,Guangxi,and Guizhou,where the tree is currently distributed,indicating the junction is a refuge place for the tree in the future climate changes. In addition,the Daba mountain area in combination with the Chongqing,Sichuan,and Hubei are the theoretical distribution area of Tsuga longibracteata in the future under climate change. They can be used as new introduction culture areas of the tree under the future climate change. The results provided a scientific basis for the conservation and sustainable management of the species in the context of the climate change,and a case integrating spatial constraint into a climate model for species distribution prediction,which will benefit accurate prediction of the geographical distribution of endangered and rare plants.
引文
[1]吕佳佳.气候变化对我国主要珍稀濒危物种分布影响及其适应对策研究.北京:中国环境科学研究院,2009.
[2] IPCC Work Group I. Climate Change 2013:The Physical Science Basis. New York:Cambridge University Press,2013.
[3]秦大河,陈振林,罗勇,丁一汇,戴晓苏,任贾文,翟盘茂,张小曳,赵宗慈,张德二,高学杰,沈永平.气候变化科学的最新认知.气候变化研究进展,2007,3(2):63-73.
[4]周海涛,那晓东,臧淑英,解瑞峰.最大熵(Maxent)模型在物种栖息地研究中的应用.环境科学与管理,2016,41(3):149-151.
[5]陈冬梅,康宏樟,刘春江.中国大陆第四纪冰期潜在植物避难所研究进展.植物研究,2011,31(5):623-632.
[6]朱耿平,刘强,高玉葆.提高生态位模型转移能力来模拟入侵物种的潜在分布.生物多样性,2014,22(2):223-230.
[7] Estrada A,Delgado M P,Arroyo B,Traba J,Morales M B. Forecasting large-scale habitat suitability of european bustards under climate change:the role of environmental and geographic variables. PLoS One,2016,11(3):e0149810.
[8]张路. MAXENT最大熵模型在预测物种潜在分布范围方面的应用.生物学通报,2015,50(11):9-12.
[9] Roberts D R,Hamann A. Predicting potential climate change impacts with bioclimate envelope models:a palaeoecological perspective. Global Ecology and Biogeography,2012,21(2):121-133.
[10]周佩,钱增强,陈克克,强毅.气候变化背景下费菜在中国适生区分布预测.中药材,2015,38(7):1379-1383.
[11]潘石玉,朱志红,姚天华,王彦星,周佩.气候变化背景下药用植物何首乌在中国适生区分布预测.西北农林科技大学学报:自然科学版,2016,44(1):192-198.
[12] Rana S K,Rana H K,Ghimire S K,Shrestha K K,Ranjitkar S. Predicting the impact of climate change on the distribution of two threatened Himalayan medicinal plants of Liliaceae in Nepal. Journal of Mountain Science,2017,14(3):558-570.
[13] Mammola S,Goodacre S L,Isaia M. Climate change may drive cave spiders to extinction. Ecography,2018,40(1):233-243.
[14] Skov F,Svenning J C. Potential impact of climatic change on the distribution of forest herbs in Europe. Ecography,2004,27(3):366-380.
[15] Crase B,Liedloff A,Vesk P A,Fukuda Y,Wintle B A. Incorporating spatial autocorrelation into species distribution models alters forecasts of climate-mediated range shifts. Global Change Biology,2014; 20(8):2566-2579.
[16] Márquez A L,Real R,Olivero J,Estrada A. Combining climate with other influential factors for modelling the impact of climate change on species distribution. Climatic Change,2011,108(1/2):135-157.
[17] Vedel-Srensen M,Tovaranonte J,Bcher P K,Balslev H,Barfod A S. Spatial distribution and environmental preferences of 10 economically important forest palms in western South America. Forest Ecology and Management,2013,307:284-292.
[18] Tovaranonte J,Blach-Overgaard A,Pongsattayapipat R,Svenning J C,Barfod A S. Distribution and diversity of palms in a tropical biodiversity hotspot(Thailand)assessed by species distribution modeling. Nordic Journal of Botany,2015,33(2):214-224.
[19] Raes N,Cannon C H,Hijmans R J,Piessens T,Saw L G,Van Welzen P C,Slik J W F. Historical distribution of Sundaland's dipterocarp rainforests at quaternary glacial maxima. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,2014,111(47):16790-16795.
[20] Fitzpatrick M C,Gove A D,Sanders N J,Dunn R R. Climate change,plant migration,and range collapse in a global biodiversity hotspot:the Banksia(Proteaceae)of Western Australia. Global Change Biology,2018,14(6):1337-1352.
[21] Chitale V S,Behera M D,Roy P S. Future of endemic flora of biodiversity hotspots in India. PLoS One,2014,9(12):e115264.
[22] Venevskaia I,Venevsky S,Thomas C D. Projected latitudinal and regional changes in vascular plant diversity through climate change:short-term gains and longer-term losses. Biodiversity and Conservation,2013,22(6/7):1467-1483.
[23] Zhang M G,Zhou Z K,Chen W Y,Cannon C H,Raes N,J,Slik J W F. Major declines of woody plant species ranges under climate change in Yunnan,China. Diversity and Distributions,2014,20(4):405-415.
[24]邱迎君,李作洲,黄宏文.濒危植物长苞铁杉的年龄结构与空间格局的研究.武汉植物学研究,2008,26(5):495-500.
[25]林金星,胡玉熹,王献溥,魏令波.中国特有植物长苞铁杉的生物学特性及其保护.生物多样性,1995,3(3):147-152.
[26]邹惠渝,周晓白.珍稀树种长苞铁杉更新特性的研究.南京林业大学学报,1994,18(1):45-50.
[27]钱莲文,郭建宏,吴承祯,洪伟,陈睿.长苞铁杉林林隙物种更新动态的初步研究.江西农业大学学报,2005,27(5):719-722.
[28]张琼,洪伟,吴承祯,姬桂珍,胡喜生,林勇明.长苞铁杉天然林群落种内及种间竞争关系研究.广西植物,2005,25(1):14-17,89-89.
[29] Zhang Y B,Wang Y Z,Zhang M G,Ma K P. Climate change threats to protected plants of China:an evaluation based on species distribution modeling. Chinese Science Bulletin,2014,59(34):4652-4659.
[30] Peterson A T,Soberón J,Pearson R G,Anderson R P,Martínez-Meyer E,Nakamura M,Araújo M B. Ecological Niches and Geographic Distributions(MPB-49). Princeton:Princeton University Press,2011:328.
[31]缪清玲.用多种稳定同位素分析法追溯褐飞虱远距离迁飞虫源地[D].杭州:浙江大学,2012.
[32]王江萍,马民涛,张菁.趋势面分析法在环境领域中应用的评述及展望.环境科学与管理,2009,34(1):1-5.
[33]董研.淄博市饮水型地方性氟中毒的GIS分析[D].青岛:青岛大学,2014.
[34]孙巧燕.基于趋势面分析的县级耕地质量时空变化研究——以长泰县为例[D].福州:福建农林大学,2018.
[35]管毕财,陈微,刘想,蔡英奇,刘以珍,葛刚.四照花物种分布格局模拟及冰期避难所推测.西北植物学报,2016,36(12):2541-2547.
[36]唐继洪,程云霞,罗礼智,张蕾,江幸福.基于Maxent模型的不同气候变化情景下我国草地螟越冬区预测.生态学报,2017,37(14):4852-4863.
[37]胡忠俊,张镱锂,刘林山,于海彬.生物避难所及其识别方法评述.生态学杂志,2013,32(12):3397-3406.
[38] Hewitt G M. Some genetic consequences of ice ages,and their role in divergence and speciation. Biological Journal of the Linnean Society,1996,58(3):247-276.
[39]张爱平,王毅,熊勤犁,伍小刚,孙晓铭,黄艳蒙,张林,潘开文.末次间冰期以来3种云杉属植物的历史分布变迁及避难所.应用生态学报,2018,29(7):2411-2421.
[40] Thuiller W. Biodiversity:Climate change and the ecologist. Nature,2007,448(7153):550-552.
[41]李垚,张兴旺,方炎明.小叶栎分布格局对末次盛冰期以来气候变化的响应.植物生态学报,2016,40(11):1164-1178.
[42]应凌霄,刘晔,陈绍田,沈泽昊.气候变化情景下基于最大熵模型的中国西南地区清香木潜在分布格局模拟.生物多样性,2016,24(4):453-461.
[43]徐振朋,张佳琦,宛涛,蔡萍,伊卫东.孑遗植物裸果木历史分布格局模拟及避难区研究.西北植物学报,2017,37(10):2074-2081.
[44]刘会良,张玲卫,张宏祥,布海丽且姆·阿卜杜热合曼,张道远,管开云.基于物种分布模型的新疆野生果树物种丰富度分布格局.林业科学,2015,51(12):1-8.
[45]殷晓洁,周广胜,隋兴华,何奇瑾,李荣平.蒙古栎地理分布的主导气候因子及其阈值.生态学报,2013,33(1):103-109.
[46]贾翔,马芳芳,周旺明,周莉,于大炮,秦静,代力民.气候变化对阔叶红松林潜在地理分布区的影响.生态学报,2017,37(2):464-473.
[47]朱小龙,李振基,赖志华,宋爱琴,王建林,关少华,杨伟伟,郑凌峰.不同光照下土壤水分胁迫对长苞铁杉幼苗的作用.北京林业大学学报,2007,29(2):76-81.
[48] Liu J,M9ller M,Provan J,Gao L M,Poudel R C,Li D Z. Geological and ecological factors drive cryptic speciation of yews in a biodiversity hotspot. New Phytologist,2013,199(4):1093-1108.
[49]颜海飞,王小兰,胡启明,郝刚.鄂报春(Primula obconica Hance)亲缘地理学的初步研究.热带亚热带植物学报,2005,13(6):526-532.
[50] Leng W F,He H S,Bu R C,Dai L M,Hu Y M,Wang X G. Predicting the distributions of suitable habitat for three larch species under climate warming in Northeastern China. Forest Ecology and Management,2008,254(3):420-428.
[51]邱迎君,易官美,宁祖林,黄宏文.濒危植物长苞铁杉的地理分布和资源现状及致危因素分析.植物资源与环境学报,2011,20(1):53-59.
[52]吴建国,吕佳佳,周巧富.我国珍稀濒危物种适应气候变化的对策探讨.中国人口·资源与环境,2011,21(S1):566-570.
[53] Johnston A,Ausden M,Dodd A M,Bradbury R B,Chamberlain D E,Jiguet F,Thomas C D,Cook A S C P,Newson S E,Ockendon N,Rehfisch M M,S,Roos S,Thaxter C B,Brown A,Crick H Q P,Douse A,Mc Call R A,Pontier H,Stroud D A,Cadiou B,Crowe O,Deceuninck B,Hornman M,Pearce-Higgins J W. Observed and predicted effects of climate change on species abundance in protected areas. Nature Climate Change,2013,3(12):1055-1061.
[54]刘然,王春晶,何健,张志翔.气候变化背景下中国冷杉属植物地理分布模拟分析.植物研究,2018,38(1):37-46.
[55]朱小龙,冯大兰.长苞铁杉天然更新研究Ⅰ.种子的输入与散布.福建林学院学报,2011,31(3):212-216.
[56]朱小龙,冯大兰.长苞铁杉天然更新研究Ⅱ.不同群落的幼苗建立及其环境影响.福建林学院学报,2011,31(4):315-319.
[57]沈浪,陈小勇,李媛媛.生物冰期避难所与冰期后的重新扩散.生态学报,2002,22(11):1983-1990.
[58] Yan H F,Zhang C Y,Wang F Y,Hu C M,Ge X J,Hao G. Population expanding with the phalanx model and lineages split by environmental heterogeneity:a case study of Primula obconica in subtropical China. PLoS One,2012,7(9):e41315.
[59] Qiu Y X,Fu C X,Comes H P. Plant molecular phylogeography in China and adjacent regions:Tracing the genetic imprints of Quaternary climate and environmental change in the world's most diverse temperate flora. Molecular Phylogenetics and Evolution,2011,59(1):225-244.
[60]王献溥,刘玉凯.生物多样性的理论与实践.北京:中国环境科学出版社,1994.
[61]周先容,向邓云,戴玄.金佛山自然保护区中国种子植物特有属.生态学杂志,2007,26(1):88-93.
[62]陈林,龚粤宁,谢国光,董安强,王发国,邢福武.广东南岭国家级自然保护区珍稀濒危植物及其保护.植物科学学报,2012,30(3):277-284.
[2] IPCC Work Group I. Climate Change 2013:The Physical Science Basis. New York:Cambridge University Press,2013.
[3]秦大河,陈振林,罗勇,丁一汇,戴晓苏,任贾文,翟盘茂,张小曳,赵宗慈,张德二,高学杰,沈永平.气候变化科学的最新认知.气候变化研究进展,2007,3(2):63-73.
[4]周海涛,那晓东,臧淑英,解瑞峰.最大熵(Maxent)模型在物种栖息地研究中的应用.环境科学与管理,2016,41(3):149-151.
[5]陈冬梅,康宏樟,刘春江.中国大陆第四纪冰期潜在植物避难所研究进展.植物研究,2011,31(5):623-632.
[6]朱耿平,刘强,高玉葆.提高生态位模型转移能力来模拟入侵物种的潜在分布.生物多样性,2014,22(2):223-230.
[7] Estrada A,Delgado M P,Arroyo B,Traba J,Morales M B. Forecasting large-scale habitat suitability of european bustards under climate change:the role of environmental and geographic variables. PLoS One,2016,11(3):e0149810.
[8]张路. MAXENT最大熵模型在预测物种潜在分布范围方面的应用.生物学通报,2015,50(11):9-12.
[9] Roberts D R,Hamann A. Predicting potential climate change impacts with bioclimate envelope models:a palaeoecological perspective. Global Ecology and Biogeography,2012,21(2):121-133.
[10]周佩,钱增强,陈克克,强毅.气候变化背景下费菜在中国适生区分布预测.中药材,2015,38(7):1379-1383.
[11]潘石玉,朱志红,姚天华,王彦星,周佩.气候变化背景下药用植物何首乌在中国适生区分布预测.西北农林科技大学学报:自然科学版,2016,44(1):192-198.
[12] Rana S K,Rana H K,Ghimire S K,Shrestha K K,Ranjitkar S. Predicting the impact of climate change on the distribution of two threatened Himalayan medicinal plants of Liliaceae in Nepal. Journal of Mountain Science,2017,14(3):558-570.
[13] Mammola S,Goodacre S L,Isaia M. Climate change may drive cave spiders to extinction. Ecography,2018,40(1):233-243.
[14] Skov F,Svenning J C. Potential impact of climatic change on the distribution of forest herbs in Europe. Ecography,2004,27(3):366-380.
[15] Crase B,Liedloff A,Vesk P A,Fukuda Y,Wintle B A. Incorporating spatial autocorrelation into species distribution models alters forecasts of climate-mediated range shifts. Global Change Biology,2014; 20(8):2566-2579.
[16] Márquez A L,Real R,Olivero J,Estrada A. Combining climate with other influential factors for modelling the impact of climate change on species distribution. Climatic Change,2011,108(1/2):135-157.
[17] Vedel-Srensen M,Tovaranonte J,Bcher P K,Balslev H,Barfod A S. Spatial distribution and environmental preferences of 10 economically important forest palms in western South America. Forest Ecology and Management,2013,307:284-292.
[18] Tovaranonte J,Blach-Overgaard A,Pongsattayapipat R,Svenning J C,Barfod A S. Distribution and diversity of palms in a tropical biodiversity hotspot(Thailand)assessed by species distribution modeling. Nordic Journal of Botany,2015,33(2):214-224.
[19] Raes N,Cannon C H,Hijmans R J,Piessens T,Saw L G,Van Welzen P C,Slik J W F. Historical distribution of Sundaland's dipterocarp rainforests at quaternary glacial maxima. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,2014,111(47):16790-16795.
[20] Fitzpatrick M C,Gove A D,Sanders N J,Dunn R R. Climate change,plant migration,and range collapse in a global biodiversity hotspot:the Banksia(Proteaceae)of Western Australia. Global Change Biology,2018,14(6):1337-1352.
[21] Chitale V S,Behera M D,Roy P S. Future of endemic flora of biodiversity hotspots in India. PLoS One,2014,9(12):e115264.
[22] Venevskaia I,Venevsky S,Thomas C D. Projected latitudinal and regional changes in vascular plant diversity through climate change:short-term gains and longer-term losses. Biodiversity and Conservation,2013,22(6/7):1467-1483.
[23] Zhang M G,Zhou Z K,Chen W Y,Cannon C H,Raes N,J,Slik J W F. Major declines of woody plant species ranges under climate change in Yunnan,China. Diversity and Distributions,2014,20(4):405-415.
[24]邱迎君,李作洲,黄宏文.濒危植物长苞铁杉的年龄结构与空间格局的研究.武汉植物学研究,2008,26(5):495-500.
[25]林金星,胡玉熹,王献溥,魏令波.中国特有植物长苞铁杉的生物学特性及其保护.生物多样性,1995,3(3):147-152.
[26]邹惠渝,周晓白.珍稀树种长苞铁杉更新特性的研究.南京林业大学学报,1994,18(1):45-50.
[27]钱莲文,郭建宏,吴承祯,洪伟,陈睿.长苞铁杉林林隙物种更新动态的初步研究.江西农业大学学报,2005,27(5):719-722.
[28]张琼,洪伟,吴承祯,姬桂珍,胡喜生,林勇明.长苞铁杉天然林群落种内及种间竞争关系研究.广西植物,2005,25(1):14-17,89-89.
[29] Zhang Y B,Wang Y Z,Zhang M G,Ma K P. Climate change threats to protected plants of China:an evaluation based on species distribution modeling. Chinese Science Bulletin,2014,59(34):4652-4659.
[30] Peterson A T,Soberón J,Pearson R G,Anderson R P,Martínez-Meyer E,Nakamura M,Araújo M B. Ecological Niches and Geographic Distributions(MPB-49). Princeton:Princeton University Press,2011:328.
[31]缪清玲.用多种稳定同位素分析法追溯褐飞虱远距离迁飞虫源地[D].杭州:浙江大学,2012.
[32]王江萍,马民涛,张菁.趋势面分析法在环境领域中应用的评述及展望.环境科学与管理,2009,34(1):1-5.
[33]董研.淄博市饮水型地方性氟中毒的GIS分析[D].青岛:青岛大学,2014.
[34]孙巧燕.基于趋势面分析的县级耕地质量时空变化研究——以长泰县为例[D].福州:福建农林大学,2018.
[35]管毕财,陈微,刘想,蔡英奇,刘以珍,葛刚.四照花物种分布格局模拟及冰期避难所推测.西北植物学报,2016,36(12):2541-2547.
[36]唐继洪,程云霞,罗礼智,张蕾,江幸福.基于Maxent模型的不同气候变化情景下我国草地螟越冬区预测.生态学报,2017,37(14):4852-4863.
[37]胡忠俊,张镱锂,刘林山,于海彬.生物避难所及其识别方法评述.生态学杂志,2013,32(12):3397-3406.
[38] Hewitt G M. Some genetic consequences of ice ages,and their role in divergence and speciation. Biological Journal of the Linnean Society,1996,58(3):247-276.
[39]张爱平,王毅,熊勤犁,伍小刚,孙晓铭,黄艳蒙,张林,潘开文.末次间冰期以来3种云杉属植物的历史分布变迁及避难所.应用生态学报,2018,29(7):2411-2421.
[40] Thuiller W. Biodiversity:Climate change and the ecologist. Nature,2007,448(7153):550-552.
[41]李垚,张兴旺,方炎明.小叶栎分布格局对末次盛冰期以来气候变化的响应.植物生态学报,2016,40(11):1164-1178.
[42]应凌霄,刘晔,陈绍田,沈泽昊.气候变化情景下基于最大熵模型的中国西南地区清香木潜在分布格局模拟.生物多样性,2016,24(4):453-461.
[43]徐振朋,张佳琦,宛涛,蔡萍,伊卫东.孑遗植物裸果木历史分布格局模拟及避难区研究.西北植物学报,2017,37(10):2074-2081.
[44]刘会良,张玲卫,张宏祥,布海丽且姆·阿卜杜热合曼,张道远,管开云.基于物种分布模型的新疆野生果树物种丰富度分布格局.林业科学,2015,51(12):1-8.
[45]殷晓洁,周广胜,隋兴华,何奇瑾,李荣平.蒙古栎地理分布的主导气候因子及其阈值.生态学报,2013,33(1):103-109.
[46]贾翔,马芳芳,周旺明,周莉,于大炮,秦静,代力民.气候变化对阔叶红松林潜在地理分布区的影响.生态学报,2017,37(2):464-473.
[47]朱小龙,李振基,赖志华,宋爱琴,王建林,关少华,杨伟伟,郑凌峰.不同光照下土壤水分胁迫对长苞铁杉幼苗的作用.北京林业大学学报,2007,29(2):76-81.
[48] Liu J,M9ller M,Provan J,Gao L M,Poudel R C,Li D Z. Geological and ecological factors drive cryptic speciation of yews in a biodiversity hotspot. New Phytologist,2013,199(4):1093-1108.
[49]颜海飞,王小兰,胡启明,郝刚.鄂报春(Primula obconica Hance)亲缘地理学的初步研究.热带亚热带植物学报,2005,13(6):526-532.
[50] Leng W F,He H S,Bu R C,Dai L M,Hu Y M,Wang X G. Predicting the distributions of suitable habitat for three larch species under climate warming in Northeastern China. Forest Ecology and Management,2008,254(3):420-428.
[51]邱迎君,易官美,宁祖林,黄宏文.濒危植物长苞铁杉的地理分布和资源现状及致危因素分析.植物资源与环境学报,2011,20(1):53-59.
[52]吴建国,吕佳佳,周巧富.我国珍稀濒危物种适应气候变化的对策探讨.中国人口·资源与环境,2011,21(S1):566-570.
[53] Johnston A,Ausden M,Dodd A M,Bradbury R B,Chamberlain D E,Jiguet F,Thomas C D,Cook A S C P,Newson S E,Ockendon N,Rehfisch M M,S,Roos S,Thaxter C B,Brown A,Crick H Q P,Douse A,Mc Call R A,Pontier H,Stroud D A,Cadiou B,Crowe O,Deceuninck B,Hornman M,Pearce-Higgins J W. Observed and predicted effects of climate change on species abundance in protected areas. Nature Climate Change,2013,3(12):1055-1061.
[54]刘然,王春晶,何健,张志翔.气候变化背景下中国冷杉属植物地理分布模拟分析.植物研究,2018,38(1):37-46.
[55]朱小龙,冯大兰.长苞铁杉天然更新研究Ⅰ.种子的输入与散布.福建林学院学报,2011,31(3):212-216.
[56]朱小龙,冯大兰.长苞铁杉天然更新研究Ⅱ.不同群落的幼苗建立及其环境影响.福建林学院学报,2011,31(4):315-319.
[57]沈浪,陈小勇,李媛媛.生物冰期避难所与冰期后的重新扩散.生态学报,2002,22(11):1983-1990.
[58] Yan H F,Zhang C Y,Wang F Y,Hu C M,Ge X J,Hao G. Population expanding with the phalanx model and lineages split by environmental heterogeneity:a case study of Primula obconica in subtropical China. PLoS One,2012,7(9):e41315.
[59] Qiu Y X,Fu C X,Comes H P. Plant molecular phylogeography in China and adjacent regions:Tracing the genetic imprints of Quaternary climate and environmental change in the world's most diverse temperate flora. Molecular Phylogenetics and Evolution,2011,59(1):225-244.
[60]王献溥,刘玉凯.生物多样性的理论与实践.北京:中国环境科学出版社,1994.
[61]周先容,向邓云,戴玄.金佛山自然保护区中国种子植物特有属.生态学杂志,2007,26(1):88-93.
[62]陈林,龚粤宁,谢国光,董安强,王发国,邢福武.广东南岭国家级自然保护区珍稀濒危植物及其保护.植物科学学报,2012,30(3):277-284.