不确定环境下的管理决策研究——效果推理视角
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摘要
如何在不确定环境下决策是管理研究和实践长期以来共同关心的问题。既有研究对该问题至少提出三种应对方法 :坚持预测并更好地计划;尽可能地适应;愿景驱动。与以上方法不同,效果推理强调对未来的控制,而不是聚焦于预测,从而建立了一整套关于不确定环境下的决策理论。该理论包含五个基本原理,是一套关于在不确定环境下如何思考、决策和行动的完整理论。经过近二十年的发展,效果推理理论的内涵不断明晰,相关的实证研究也取得了长足进展。然而,该理论仍处于发展阶段,对其重要缺陷进行补充完善,将对丰富和发展不确定环境下的决策理论有所助益。
Many firms operate in a highly uncertain business environment. How to make decisions in uncertain situations has been a common concern for academic researchers as well as practitioners. Existing studies have proposed at least three approaches to decision making in uncertain situations: Planning approach; Adaptive approach; Visionary approach. Planning approach suggests that decision makers should try harder to predict more accurately. Adaptive approach claims that decision makers should try to move faster in order to adapt better. Visionary approach focuses on constructing an organization and its environment by visualizing future possibilities and proactively turns them into reality. Effectuation approach is different from these three approaches in the sense that it emphasizes on controlling the future rather than prediction. In turn, a comprehensive theory of decision making under uncertainties is developed. Effectuation theory includes five principles including pilot-in-the plane principle, bird-in-hand principle, affordable-loss principle, the crazy-quilt principle and leveraging contingencies. This paper first summarizes the theoretical studies of effectuation theory. It is found that effectuation theory is an integrated theory about how to think, decide and act in uncertain situations. The theory has been developed for twenty years and the meaning of the theory has been clarified. Meanwhile, this paper reviews empirical studies conducted through the lens of effectuation theory. Although the theoretical and empirical research of effectuation theory has witnessed a rapid progress, effectuation theory is still under development. Researchers need to have further theoretical discussions in order to overcome the drawbacks of effectuation theory. Besides, future empirical studies should apply more rigorous methods and pay attention to the sample size. More studies could be conducted to examine the antecedents of applying effectuation approach. Further, it is suggested that scholars can use effectuation theory to examine strategic alliance, merge and acquisition, technology innovation, service innovation, and business model innovation in order to enrich theories of decision making in uncertain situations.
Many firms operate in a highly uncertain business environment. How to make decisions in uncertain situations has been a common concern for academic researchers as well as practitioners. Existing studies have proposed at least three approaches to decision making in uncertain situations: Planning approach; Adaptive approach; Visionary approach. Planning approach suggests that decision makers should try harder to predict more accurately. Adaptive approach claims that decision makers should try to move faster in order to adapt better. Visionary approach focuses on constructing an organization and its environment by visualizing future possibilities and proactively turns them into reality. Effectuation approach is different from these three approaches in the sense that it emphasizes on controlling the future rather than prediction. In turn, a comprehensive theory of decision making under uncertainties is developed. Effectuation theory includes five principles including pilot-in-the plane principle, bird-in-hand principle, affordable-loss principle, the crazy-quilt principle and leveraging contingencies. This paper first summarizes the theoretical studies of effectuation theory. It is found that effectuation theory is an integrated theory about how to think, decide and act in uncertain situations. The theory has been developed for twenty years and the meaning of the theory has been clarified. Meanwhile, this paper reviews empirical studies conducted through the lens of effectuation theory. Although the theoretical and empirical research of effectuation theory has witnessed a rapid progress, effectuation theory is still under development. Researchers need to have further theoretical discussions in order to overcome the drawbacks of effectuation theory. Besides, future empirical studies should apply more rigorous methods and pay attention to the sample size. More studies could be conducted to examine the antecedents of applying effectuation approach. Further, it is suggested that scholars can use effectuation theory to examine strategic alliance, merge and acquisition, technology innovation, service innovation, and business model innovation in order to enrich theories of decision making in uncertain situations.
引文
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(1)这个测量方法并不是基于量表的,作为文本分析法,其测量的含义与量表的测量有比较大的差异。考虑到该方法和量表测量性质不同,难以展开比较,所以表2并未将其加入对比。
[2]Thompson,J..Organizations in Action.New York:McGraw-Hill,1967.
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[6]Kahneman,D.,Slovic,P.,Tversky,A..Judgement under Uncertainty:Heuristics and Biases.New York:Cambridge University Press,1982.
[7]Ansoff,H..Corporate Strategy.New York:Mc Graw-Hill,1965.
[8]Porter,M..Competitive Strategy:Techniques for Analyzing Industries and Competitors.New York:The Free Press,1980.
[9]Simon,H..A Behavioural Model of Rational Choice.Quarterly Journal of Economics,1955,69(1):99-118.
[10]Quinn,J..Strategies for Change:Logical Incrementalism.Homewood:Irwin,198.
[11]Mintzberg,H..Patterns in Strategy Formation.Management Science,1978,24(9):934-948.
[12]Teece,D.,Pisano,G.,Shuen,A..Dynamic Capabilities and Strategic Management.Strategic Management Journal,1997,18(7):509-533.
[13]Schoemaker,P..Multiple Scenarios Development:Its Conceptual and Behavioural Foundation.Strategic Management Journal,1993,14(1):193-213.
[14]Hamel,G.,Prahalad,C..Strategic Intent.Harvard Business Review,1989,67(3):63-76.
[15]Wiltbank,R.,Dew,N.,Read,S.,Sarasvathy,S..What to Do Next?The Case for Non-predictive Strategy.Strategic Management Journal,2006,27(10):981-998.
[16]Sarasvathy,S..Causation and Effectuation:Toward a Theoretical Shift from Economic Inevitability to Entrepreneurial Contingency.Academy of Management Review,2001,26(2):243-263.
[17]Sarasvathy,S..How Do Firms Come to Be?Towards a Theory of the Prefirm.Carnegie Mellon University:Pittsburgh,1998.
[18]Sarasvathy,S..Effectuation-elements of Entrepreneurial Expertise.Northampton,MA:Edward Elgar Publishing,2008.
[19]方世建.试析效果逻辑的理论渊源核心内容与发展走向.外国经济与管理,2012,34(1):10-17.
[20]Read,S.,Sarasvathy,S.,Dew,N.,Wiltbank,R..Effectual Entrepreneurship.Second Edition.New York:Routledge,2016.
[21]Read,S.,Sarasvathy,S.,Dew,N.,Wiltbank,R.,Ohlsson,A..Effectual Entrepreneurship.New York:Routledge,2011.
[22]Engel,Y.,Kaandorp,M.,Elfring,T..Toward a Dynamic Process Model of Entrepreneurial Networking under Uncertainty.Journal of Business Venturing,2017,32(1):35-51.
[23]Andries,P.,Debackere,K.,Van Looy,B..Simultaneous Experimentation as a Learning Strategy:Business Model Development under Uncertainty.Strategic Entrepreneurship Journal,2013,7(4):288-310.
[24]Daniel,E.,Domenico,M.,Sharma,S..Effectuation and HomeBased Online Business Entrepreneurs.International Small Business Journal,2015,33(8):799-823.
[25]Dew,N.,Sarasvathy,S.,Read,S.,Wiltbank,R..Affordable Loss:Behavioral Economic Aspects of the Plunge Decision.Strategic Entrepreneurship Journal,2009,3(1):105-126.
[26]Harmeling,S..Contingency as an Entrepreneurial Resource:How Private Obsession Fulfills Public Need.Journal of Business Venturing,2011,26(3):293-305.
[27]Harmeling,S.,Sarasvathy,S..When Contingency Is a Resource:Educating Entrepreneurs in the Balkans,the Bronx,and Beyond.Entrepreneurship Theory and Practice,2013,37(4):713-744.
[28]Dew,N.,Sarasvathy,S..What Effectuation Is Not:Further Development of an Alternative to Rational Choice,in Annual Meeting of the Academy of Management.Denver,2002.
[29]Sarasvathy,S.,Dew,N.,Velamuri,R.,Venkataraman,S..Three Views of Entrepreneurial Opportunity,in Handbook of Entrepreneurial Research.Kluwer:Dordrecht,2003:141-160.
[30]Dew,N.,Read,S.,Sarasvathy,S.,Wiltbank,R..Outlines of Behavioral Theory of the Entrepreneurial Firm.Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization,2008,66(1):37-59.
[31]Sarasvathy,S.,Dew,N.,Read,S.,Wiltbank,R..Designing Organizations that Design Environments:Lessons from Entrepreneurial Expertise.Organization Studies,2008,29(3):331-350.
[32]Sarasvathy,S.,Simon,H.,Lave,L..Perceiving and Managing Business Risks:Differences between Entrepreneurs and Bankers.Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization,1998,33(2):207-226.
[33]Sarasvathy,S.,Dew,N..New Market Creation through Transformation.Journal of Evolutionary Economics,2005,15(5):533-565.
[34]Dew,N.,Read,S.,Sarasvathy,S.,Wiltbank,R..Effectual Versus Predictive Logics in Entrepreneurial Decision-making:Differences between Experts and Novices.Journal of Business Venturing,2009,24(4):287-309.
[35]Read,S.,Dew,N.,Sarasvathy,S.,Song,M.,Wiltbank,R..Marketing under Uncertainty:The Logic of an Effectual Approach.Journal of Marketing,2009,73(1):1-18.
[36]Dew,N.,Read,S.,Sarasvathy,S.,Wiltbank,R..On the Entrepreneurial Genesis of New Markets:Effectual Transformations versus Causal Search and Selection.Journal of Evolutionary Economics,2011,21(2):231-253.
[37]Baron,R..Effectual Versus Predictive Logics in Entrepreneurial Decision Making:Differences between Experts and Novices Does Experience in Starting New Ventures Change the Way Entrepreneurs Think?Perhaps,but for Now,“Caution”Is Essential.Journal of Business Venturing,2009,24(4):310-315.
[38]Wagner,D.,Berger,J..Do Sociological Theories Grow?American Journal of Sociology,1985,90(4):697-728.
[39]陈昭全,张志学,Whetten,D..管理研究中的理论构建.陈晓萍,徐淑英,樊景立.组织与管理研究的实证方法.北京大学出版社,2012:63-95.
[40]Politis,D..Does Prior Start-up Experience Matter for Entrepreneurs`Learning?A Comparison between Novice and Habitual Entrepreneurs.Journal of Small Business and Enterprise Development,2008,15(3):472-489.
[41]Da Costa,A.,Brettel,M..Employee Effectuation:What Makes Corporate Employees Act Like Entrepreneurs?Frontiers of Entrepreneurship Research,2011,31(17):555-565.
[42]Fischer,E.,Reuber,R..Social Interaction via New Social Media:(How)Can Interactions on Twitter Affect Effectual Thinking and Behavior?Journal of Business Venturing,2015,26(1):1-18.
[43]Gabrielsson,J.,Politis,D..Career Motives and Entrepreneurial Decision-making:Examining Preferences for Causal and Effectual Logics in the Early Stage of New Ventures.Small Business Economics,2011,36(3):281-298.
[44]De Tienne,D.,Chandler,G..The Impact of Motivation and Causation and Effectuation Approaches on Exit Strategies.Frontiers of Entrepreneurship Research,2010,30(1):1-13.
[45]Alsos,G.,Clausen,T.,Solvoll,S..Tourism Firm Innovation,the Role of Effectual and Causational Reasoning,in RENT.Lyon,France,2012.
[46]Harms,R.,Schiele,H..Antecedents and Consequences of Effectuation and Causation in the International New Venture Creation Process.Journal of International Entrepreneurship,2012,10(1):95-116.
[47]Chetty,S.,Ojala,A.,Leppaaho,T..Effectuation and Foreign Market Entry of Entrepreneurial Firms.European Journal of Marketing,2015,49(9):1436-1459.
[48]Mthanti,T.,Urban,B..Effectuation and Entrepreneurial Orientation in High-technology Firms.Technology Analysis and Strategic Management,2014,26(2):121-133.
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(1)这个测量方法并不是基于量表的,作为文本分析法,其测量的含义与量表的测量有比较大的差异。考虑到该方法和量表测量性质不同,难以展开比较,所以表2并未将其加入对比。
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