吉林省人口年龄结构变化对区域经济影响研究
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摘要
人口生育政策是导致地区人口年龄结构变化的重要因素之一,具有很强的滞后性。吉林省在贯彻实施计划生育政策时,执行力度强,对抑制人口增长起到明显的效果,但也使得当前吉林省的人口年龄结构问题较其它省份更为突出。文章基于ESDA分析方法,对2005—2015年吉林省47个行政单元的人口年龄结构时空特征进行分析。结果表明:2005年以来,吉林省少年儿童人口占比不断缩减,适龄劳动人口聚集情况有所减弱,核心城市对适龄劳动人口吸引力有所降低,并且全省老年人口占比不断上升,老龄化进程不断加快。在研究人口年龄结构变化对区域经济的影响时,引入空间计量模型,采用SLX模型和SDM模型,计量分析结果表明:当前,吉林省人口出生率的提高、少年儿童占比的上升会对经济增长有促进作用。从短期来看,老年人口占比的上升,依然对地区经济产生促进作用,而死亡率的提高则对经济增长有负向作用,但影响程度较小。
Population fertility policy is one of the important factors leading to changes in the age structure of the population in the region and has a strong lag. It strongly implements the family planning policy in Jilin Province, which has a significant effect on the suppression of population growth, but it also makes its age structure problem more prominent than other provinces. Based on the ESDA analysis method, this paper analyzes the temporal and spatial characteristics of the age structure of 47 administrative units in Jilin Province from 2005 to 2015. The results show that,since 2005, the proportion of juvenile in Jilin Province has continuously shrunk, and the concentration of working-age population has weakened. The attractiveness of core cities to the working-age has decreased, and the proportion of the elderly in the province has continuously increased with the acceleration of aging process. This paper analyzes the influence of age structure change on regional economy by the method of the spatial econometric model, SLX model and SDM model. The results of the measurement analysis show that: Currently, the increase of the birth rate and the proportion of juvenile will enhance the economic growth. In the short term, the increase in the proportion of the elderly have a positive effect on the regional economy, while the increase in mortality rate will have a negative effect on the economic growth, but the degree of impact is small.
Population fertility policy is one of the important factors leading to changes in the age structure of the population in the region and has a strong lag. It strongly implements the family planning policy in Jilin Province, which has a significant effect on the suppression of population growth, but it also makes its age structure problem more prominent than other provinces. Based on the ESDA analysis method, this paper analyzes the temporal and spatial characteristics of the age structure of 47 administrative units in Jilin Province from 2005 to 2015. The results show that,since 2005, the proportion of juvenile in Jilin Province has continuously shrunk, and the concentration of working-age population has weakened. The attractiveness of core cities to the working-age has decreased, and the proportion of the elderly in the province has continuously increased with the acceleration of aging process. This paper analyzes the influence of age structure change on regional economy by the method of the spatial econometric model, SLX model and SDM model. The results of the measurement analysis show that: Currently, the increase of the birth rate and the proportion of juvenile will enhance the economic growth. In the short term, the increase in the proportion of the elderly have a positive effect on the regional economy, while the increase in mortality rate will have a negative effect on the economic growth, but the degree of impact is small.
引文
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[3] Bloom,D.E and Williamson,J.G,Demographic Transitions and Economic Miracles in Emerging Asia[J]. World Bank Econom‐ic Review,1998,12(3):419-455.
[4] Futagami K,Nakajima T.Population aging and economic growth[J]. Journal of Macroeconomics,2002,23(1):31-44.
[5] Boucekkine R,Fabbri G,Gozzi F. Egalitarianism under population change:age structure does matter[J]. Journal of Mathemati‐cal Economics,2014,55:86-100.
[6] Choi K.H,Shin S. Population aging,economic growth and the social transmission of human capital:An analysis with an over‐lapping generations model[J]. Economic Modelling,2015,50:138-147.
[7] Uddin G.A,Alam K,Gow J. Population age structure and savings rate impacts on economic growth:Evidence from Australia[J]. Economic Analysis and Policy,2016,52:23-33.
[8] Fair R C,Dominguez K. M. Effects of the Changing US Age Distribution on Macroeconomic Equations[J]. The American Economic Review,1991,81(5):1 276-1 294.
[9] Linda T,Malmberg B. Age Structure Effects and Growth in the OECD,1950-1990[J]. Journal of Population Economics,1999,12(3):431-449.
[10] Alders P,Broer D.P. Ageing Fertility and Growth[J]. Journal of Public Economics,2005,89(6):1 075-1 095.
[11] Prettner K. Population Ageing and Endogenous Economic Growth[J]. Journal of Population Economic,2013,26(2):811-834.
[12] Wang F and A Mason. Demographic Dividend and Prospects for Economic Development in China,UN Expert Group Meet‐ing on Social and Economic Implications of Changing Popula‐tion Age Structure[J]. Population Division,Mexico,2005(8-9):141-154.
[13]蒋云赟.我国人口结构变动对国民储蓄的影响的代际分析[J].经济科学,2009(1):30-38.
[14]王颖,倪超. OECD国家人口转变与经济增长关系研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2013(5):106-112.
[15]刘凯豪,刘渝琳.破解中国经济增长之谜——来自人口结构变化的解释[J].经济科学,2013(3):5-21.
[16]于婷婷,宋玉祥,浩飞龙,等.东北地区人口结构对经济增长的影响[J].经济地理,2016,36(10):26-32.
[17]于庆国.吉林省人口年龄结构与经济关系实证分析[J].产业与科技论坛,2017,16(13):113-115.
[18]沈体雁,冯等田,孙铁山.空间计量经济学[M].北京:北京大学出版社,2010.
[19]武剑,杨爱婷.基于ESDA和CSDA的京津冀区域经济空间结构实证分析[J].中国软科学,2010(3):111-119.
[20]国家统计局.人口[EB/OL]. http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/zbjs/201310/t20131029_449552.html,2013-10-29.