基于SPEI的贵州省分区干旱时空演变特征
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摘要
【目的】干旱对贵州省水循环及水资源管理系统造成严重破坏,科学合理地认识干旱时空演变对抗旱减灾及社会稳定至关重要。【方法】利用贵州省18个气象站点1960—2012年逐月降水和平均气温数据计算标准化降水蒸散指数SPEI评估干旱,采用M-K趋势检验、B-G分割法、极点对称模态分解法ESMD和反距离权重插值法分析了贵州省分区分时段干旱时空演变特征。【结果】贵州省月、季和年尺度SPEI序列均呈波动下降趋势,其中夏季和冬季SPEI序列变化未通过显著性检验,且20世纪60—90年代,贵州省各分区干湿变化具有较强的一致性,21世纪各分区的干湿变化不具有明显的一致性;以黔西北年SPEI为例,基于ESMD分解法得到3个模态分量IMF和1个趋势项R,从R看出干旱指数整体上呈波动"减小-增大"趋势,分析IMF1-IMF3振荡可得黔西北地区干旱具有2.1、7.6和26.5 a的周期特征,且年代际周期26.5 a在干旱变化中起主导作用,ESMD法在非线性、非平稳时间序列周期及趋势分析中应用效果较好;依据B-G分割法检测结果,得到1960—1986年、1987—2003年和2004—2012年3个研究时段,2004—2012年黔西北地区的冬旱强度和黔西南地区的春旱频率达到最大,分别为1.82和77.78%,2004—2012年四季干旱强度明显增大,且1986—2012年贵州省高强度干旱呈现由北向南转移趋势,1960—2003年四季干旱高频区呈现由东南向西北转移趋势,1960—2012年各分区四季干旱频率呈现增加趋势。【结论】贵州省各分区呈干旱化趋势,且干旱频率和强度呈现不同程度的增加。
【Objective】Drought could alert hydrological cycle and damage water resources management. Understanding its spatiotemporal evolution is hence essential to regional development. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the spatiotemporal change in drought in Guizhou province.【Method】Monthly precipitation and average temperature measured from 18 meteorological stations in Guizhou province were used to calculate the standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index from 1960 to 2012. The M-K test, B-G segmentation algorithm, extreme-point symmetric mode decomposition method and the GIS were used to analyze the spatiotemporal evolution of the drought.【Result】The monthly, seasonal and annual SPEI all showed oscillating decrease; there is no significant difference in SPEI between summer and winter. Dry-wet alternation was consistent across the province from the 1960 s to 1990 s, but became inconsistent after the 21 st century. Using the ESMD method, we obtained three IMF components and a R trend component, which showed an increase in drought index. The IMF1-IMF3 analysis showed that the drought had three periods: 2.1 years, 7.6 years and 26.5-year period. The B-G segmentation algorithm gave three distinctive periods: 1960 to 1986, 1987 to 2003 and 2004 to 2012. From 2004 to2012, the northwest endured more droughts in winter, while the southwest saw more drought in spring. There were more droughts in 1987—2003 than in 2004—2012. From 1960 to 2003, the drought appeared to have shifted from southeast to northwest.【Conclusion】Across the province, there has been an increase in droughts in both frequency and severity.
【Objective】Drought could alert hydrological cycle and damage water resources management. Understanding its spatiotemporal evolution is hence essential to regional development. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the spatiotemporal change in drought in Guizhou province.【Method】Monthly precipitation and average temperature measured from 18 meteorological stations in Guizhou province were used to calculate the standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index from 1960 to 2012. The M-K test, B-G segmentation algorithm, extreme-point symmetric mode decomposition method and the GIS were used to analyze the spatiotemporal evolution of the drought.【Result】The monthly, seasonal and annual SPEI all showed oscillating decrease; there is no significant difference in SPEI between summer and winter. Dry-wet alternation was consistent across the province from the 1960 s to 1990 s, but became inconsistent after the 21 st century. Using the ESMD method, we obtained three IMF components and a R trend component, which showed an increase in drought index. The IMF1-IMF3 analysis showed that the drought had three periods: 2.1 years, 7.6 years and 26.5-year period. The B-G segmentation algorithm gave three distinctive periods: 1960 to 1986, 1987 to 2003 and 2004 to 2012. From 2004 to2012, the northwest endured more droughts in winter, while the southwest saw more drought in spring. There were more droughts in 1987—2003 than in 2004—2012. From 1960 to 2003, the drought appeared to have shifted from southeast to northwest.【Conclusion】Across the province, there has been an increase in droughts in both frequency and severity.
引文
[1]BUTTAFUOCO Gabriele,CALOIERO Tommaso,COSCARELLI Roberto.Analyses of drought events in Calabria(Southern Italy)using standardized precipitation index[J].Water Resources Management,2015,29(2):557-573.
[2]玉院和,王金亮,李晓鹏.基于MODIS数据的滇中地区干旱监测[J].灌溉排水学报,2018,37(11):91-98.
[3]朱玲玲,张竟竟,李治国,等.基于SPI的河南省冬小麦生育期干旱时空变化特征分析[J].灌溉排水学报,2018,37(5):51-58.
[4]詹存,梁川,赵璐.川中丘陵区季节性干旱时空分布特征及成因分析[J].农业工程学报,2013,29(21):82-90,301.
[5]RAPHAEL M W,BENEDICT M M,JAMES M R.Analysis of spatial and temporal drought variability in a tropical river basin using Palmer Drought Severity Index(PDSI)[J].International Journal of Water Resources and Environmental Engineering,2017,9(8):178-190.
[6]GUO Hao,BAO Anming,LIU Tie,et al.Spatial and temporal characteristics of droughts in Central Asia during 1966-2015[J].Science of the Total Environment,2018,624:1 523-1 538.
[7]杨庆,李明星,郑子彦,等.7种气象干旱指数的中国区域适应性[J].中国科学:地球科学,2017,47(3):337-353.
[8]YAO Ning,LI Yi,LEI Tianjie,et al.Drought evolution,severity and trends in mainland China over 1961-2013[J].Science of the Total Environment,2017,616/617:73-89.
[9]VICENTESERRANO S M,BEGUEIA Santiago,LOPEZMORENO Juan.A multiscalar drought index sensitive to global warming:The standardized precipitation evapotrans-piration index[J].Journal of Climate,2010,23:1 696-1 718.
[10]郭树龙,温季,姜新.基于SPEI的1960-2015年江汉平原旱涝规律分析及预测[J].灌溉排水学报,2018,37(9):108-115.
[11]王兆礼,黄泽勤,李军,等.基于SPEI和NDVI的中国流域尺度气象干旱及植被分布时空演变[J].农业工程学报,2016,32(14):177-186.
[12]赵平伟,郭萍,李立印,等.SPEI及SPI指数在滇西南地区干旱演变中的对比分析[J].长江流域资源与环境,2017,26(1):142-149.
[13]刘可晶,王文,朱烨,等.淮河流域过去60年干旱趋势特征及其与极端降水的联系[J].水利学报,2012,43(10):1 179-1 187.
[14]陈子燊,黄强,刘曾美.1962-2007年广东干湿时空变化特征分析[J].水科学进展,2013,24(4):469-476.
[15]雷江群,黄强,王义民,等.基于可变模糊评价法的渭河流域综合干旱分区研究[J].水利学报,2014,45(5):574-584.
[16]杨永峰,吴亚峰.经验模态分解在振动分析中的应用[M].北京:国防工业出版社,2013:52-53.
[17]WANG Jinliang,LI Zongjun.Extreme-point symmetric mode decomposition method for data analysis[J].Advances in Adaptive Data Analysis,2013,5(3):1 137.
[18]赵直,徐晗.极点对称模态分解下中国新疆温度变化趋势的区域特征[J].地理研究,2014,33(12):2 358-2 366.
[19]李双双,延军平,孔锋,等.极点对称模态分解下西安高温天气的趋势特征[J].地理研究,2018,37(1):209-219.
[20]段志鹏,李继清.基于极点对称模态分解的北京市降水特征分析[J].中国农村水利水电,2018(3):17-21.
[21]冯禹,崔宁博,徐燕梅,等.贵州省干旱时空分布特征研究[J].干旱区资源与环境,2015,29(8):82-86.
[22]陈学凯,徐建新,雷宏军,等.贵州省干旱时空变化特征及其对气候变化的响应[J].灌溉排水学报,2015,34(8):72-81.
[23]张金凤,冯杰,何祺胜.基于CI指数的贵州省干旱时空变化规律研究[J].水电能源科学,2014,32(4):4-8.
[24]李伟光,易雪,侯美亭,等.基于标准化降水蒸散指数的中国干旱趋势研究[J].中国生态农业学报,2012,20(5):643-649.
[25]YANG Meijian,YAN Denghua,YU Yingdong,et al.SPEI-Based Spatiotemporal Analysis of Drought in Haihe River Basin from 1961 to 2010[J].Advances in Meteorology,2016(1):1-10.
[26]高瑞,王龙,杨茂灵,等.基于SPEI的南盘江流域近40年冬春干旱时空特征研究[J].灌溉排水学报,2013,32(3):67-70.
[27]王金良,李宗军.可用于气候数据分析的ESMD方法[J].气候变化研究快报,2014(3):1-5.
[28]LI Huifeng,WANG Jinliang,LI Zongjun.Application of ESMD Method to Air-Sea Flux Investigation[J].International Journal of Geosciences,2013,4(5):8-11.
[29]黄生志,黄强,王义民,等.基于启发式分割和近似熵法的径流序列变异诊断[J].中山大学学报(自然科学版),2014,53(4):154-160.
[30]陈广才,谢平.基于启发式分割算法的水文变异分析研究[J].中山大学学报(自然科学版),2008(5):122-125.
[31]BERNAOLA Galván Pedro,IVANOV Plamen Ch,AMARAL Luis A Nuaes,et al.Scale invariance in the nonstationarity of human heart rate[J].Physical Review Letters,2001,87(16):168105.
[32]封国林,龚志强,董文杰,等.基于启发式分割算法的气候突变检测研究[J].物理学报,2005(11):5 494-5 499.
[33]王明田,王翔,黄晚华,等.基于相对湿润度指数的西南地区季节性干旱时空分布特征[J].农业工程学报,2012,28(19):85-92.
[34]黄晚华,杨晓光,李茂松,等.基于标准化降水指数的中国南方季节性干旱近58a演变特征[J].农业工程学报,2010,26(7):50-59.
[35]李月,白晓永,周运超,等.基于SPEI的贵州省近60年干旱时空特征分析[J].中国水土保持,2015(7):57-60.
[36]张勇荣,马士彬,闫利会.贵州省近55年降水事件变化特征[J].长江科学院院报,2017,34(1):40-44.
[37]张波,谷晓平,易俊莲.1961-2010年贵州省高温气候的时空分布特征[J].贵州农业科学,2015,43(6):210-213.
[38]张波,谷晓平,古书鸿,等.近55年贵州省潜在蒸散量变化特征及影响因子分析[J].水资源与水工程学报,2017,28(3):20-26.
[2]玉院和,王金亮,李晓鹏.基于MODIS数据的滇中地区干旱监测[J].灌溉排水学报,2018,37(11):91-98.
[3]朱玲玲,张竟竟,李治国,等.基于SPI的河南省冬小麦生育期干旱时空变化特征分析[J].灌溉排水学报,2018,37(5):51-58.
[4]詹存,梁川,赵璐.川中丘陵区季节性干旱时空分布特征及成因分析[J].农业工程学报,2013,29(21):82-90,301.
[5]RAPHAEL M W,BENEDICT M M,JAMES M R.Analysis of spatial and temporal drought variability in a tropical river basin using Palmer Drought Severity Index(PDSI)[J].International Journal of Water Resources and Environmental Engineering,2017,9(8):178-190.
[6]GUO Hao,BAO Anming,LIU Tie,et al.Spatial and temporal characteristics of droughts in Central Asia during 1966-2015[J].Science of the Total Environment,2018,624:1 523-1 538.
[7]杨庆,李明星,郑子彦,等.7种气象干旱指数的中国区域适应性[J].中国科学:地球科学,2017,47(3):337-353.
[8]YAO Ning,LI Yi,LEI Tianjie,et al.Drought evolution,severity and trends in mainland China over 1961-2013[J].Science of the Total Environment,2017,616/617:73-89.
[9]VICENTESERRANO S M,BEGUEIA Santiago,LOPEZMORENO Juan.A multiscalar drought index sensitive to global warming:The standardized precipitation evapotrans-piration index[J].Journal of Climate,2010,23:1 696-1 718.
[10]郭树龙,温季,姜新.基于SPEI的1960-2015年江汉平原旱涝规律分析及预测[J].灌溉排水学报,2018,37(9):108-115.
[11]王兆礼,黄泽勤,李军,等.基于SPEI和NDVI的中国流域尺度气象干旱及植被分布时空演变[J].农业工程学报,2016,32(14):177-186.
[12]赵平伟,郭萍,李立印,等.SPEI及SPI指数在滇西南地区干旱演变中的对比分析[J].长江流域资源与环境,2017,26(1):142-149.
[13]刘可晶,王文,朱烨,等.淮河流域过去60年干旱趋势特征及其与极端降水的联系[J].水利学报,2012,43(10):1 179-1 187.
[14]陈子燊,黄强,刘曾美.1962-2007年广东干湿时空变化特征分析[J].水科学进展,2013,24(4):469-476.
[15]雷江群,黄强,王义民,等.基于可变模糊评价法的渭河流域综合干旱分区研究[J].水利学报,2014,45(5):574-584.
[16]杨永峰,吴亚峰.经验模态分解在振动分析中的应用[M].北京:国防工业出版社,2013:52-53.
[17]WANG Jinliang,LI Zongjun.Extreme-point symmetric mode decomposition method for data analysis[J].Advances in Adaptive Data Analysis,2013,5(3):1 137.
[18]赵直,徐晗.极点对称模态分解下中国新疆温度变化趋势的区域特征[J].地理研究,2014,33(12):2 358-2 366.
[19]李双双,延军平,孔锋,等.极点对称模态分解下西安高温天气的趋势特征[J].地理研究,2018,37(1):209-219.
[20]段志鹏,李继清.基于极点对称模态分解的北京市降水特征分析[J].中国农村水利水电,2018(3):17-21.
[21]冯禹,崔宁博,徐燕梅,等.贵州省干旱时空分布特征研究[J].干旱区资源与环境,2015,29(8):82-86.
[22]陈学凯,徐建新,雷宏军,等.贵州省干旱时空变化特征及其对气候变化的响应[J].灌溉排水学报,2015,34(8):72-81.
[23]张金凤,冯杰,何祺胜.基于CI指数的贵州省干旱时空变化规律研究[J].水电能源科学,2014,32(4):4-8.
[24]李伟光,易雪,侯美亭,等.基于标准化降水蒸散指数的中国干旱趋势研究[J].中国生态农业学报,2012,20(5):643-649.
[25]YANG Meijian,YAN Denghua,YU Yingdong,et al.SPEI-Based Spatiotemporal Analysis of Drought in Haihe River Basin from 1961 to 2010[J].Advances in Meteorology,2016(1):1-10.
[26]高瑞,王龙,杨茂灵,等.基于SPEI的南盘江流域近40年冬春干旱时空特征研究[J].灌溉排水学报,2013,32(3):67-70.
[27]王金良,李宗军.可用于气候数据分析的ESMD方法[J].气候变化研究快报,2014(3):1-5.
[28]LI Huifeng,WANG Jinliang,LI Zongjun.Application of ESMD Method to Air-Sea Flux Investigation[J].International Journal of Geosciences,2013,4(5):8-11.
[29]黄生志,黄强,王义民,等.基于启发式分割和近似熵法的径流序列变异诊断[J].中山大学学报(自然科学版),2014,53(4):154-160.
[30]陈广才,谢平.基于启发式分割算法的水文变异分析研究[J].中山大学学报(自然科学版),2008(5):122-125.
[31]BERNAOLA Galván Pedro,IVANOV Plamen Ch,AMARAL Luis A Nuaes,et al.Scale invariance in the nonstationarity of human heart rate[J].Physical Review Letters,2001,87(16):168105.
[32]封国林,龚志强,董文杰,等.基于启发式分割算法的气候突变检测研究[J].物理学报,2005(11):5 494-5 499.
[33]王明田,王翔,黄晚华,等.基于相对湿润度指数的西南地区季节性干旱时空分布特征[J].农业工程学报,2012,28(19):85-92.
[34]黄晚华,杨晓光,李茂松,等.基于标准化降水指数的中国南方季节性干旱近58a演变特征[J].农业工程学报,2010,26(7):50-59.
[35]李月,白晓永,周运超,等.基于SPEI的贵州省近60年干旱时空特征分析[J].中国水土保持,2015(7):57-60.
[36]张勇荣,马士彬,闫利会.贵州省近55年降水事件变化特征[J].长江科学院院报,2017,34(1):40-44.
[37]张波,谷晓平,易俊莲.1961-2010年贵州省高温气候的时空分布特征[J].贵州农业科学,2015,43(6):210-213.
[38]张波,谷晓平,古书鸿,等.近55年贵州省潜在蒸散量变化特征及影响因子分析[J].水资源与水工程学报,2017,28(3):20-26.