基于故障树方法的供电可靠性灰色关联分析
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摘要
新电改方案中重点要求加强政府监管,提升电力安全高效运行和可靠性供应水平,为提升电网企业的供电可靠性,需要全面分析影响供电可靠性,主要是造成居民和工业等用户停电的原因。目前对配电网供电可靠性的研究,多侧重于配电网评估算法方面的研究,首先对电网企业供电可靠性及其影响因素进行分析,利用故障树分析建立停电原因故障树逻辑图,并根据集对分析法得出底事件的最大影响因素;然后,基于这些最大影响因素选取6个影响供电可靠性的评价指标,采用灰色关联度分析法,得到了评价指标与供电可靠性之间的灰色关联度。最后,以算例分析找出影响供电可靠性的因素排序,据此为电网企业提供改善供电质量、提升服务质量的技术支撑。
New electricity reform program focuses on strengthening government supervision,improving electric power operation safety,efficiency and reliability.In order to improve power supply reliability,reasons that cause residents and industrial user 's blackout need comprehensive analysis.Recent research on power supply reliability of distribution network emphasizes more on network evaluation algorithm.The paper analyzes power supply reliability and its influence factors firstly,builds blackout reasons fault tree logic diagram using fault tree analysis,and obtains maximum influence factor of the bottom event according to set pair analysis.Then,based on maximum influence factors,six evaluation indexes affecting power supply reliability are chosen.Grey correlation degrees among evaluation index and power supply reliability are obtained by grey incidence analysis method.Finally,power supply reliability influence factors ranking is obtained through case study.The results provide technical support to quality improvement of power supply and power grid enterprise service.
New electricity reform program focuses on strengthening government supervision,improving electric power operation safety,efficiency and reliability.In order to improve power supply reliability,reasons that cause residents and industrial user 's blackout need comprehensive analysis.Recent research on power supply reliability of distribution network emphasizes more on network evaluation algorithm.The paper analyzes power supply reliability and its influence factors firstly,builds blackout reasons fault tree logic diagram using fault tree analysis,and obtains maximum influence factor of the bottom event according to set pair analysis.Then,based on maximum influence factors,six evaluation indexes affecting power supply reliability are chosen.Grey correlation degrees among evaluation index and power supply reliability are obtained by grey incidence analysis method.Finally,power supply reliability influence factors ranking is obtained through case study.The results provide technical support to quality improvement of power supply and power grid enterprise service.
引文
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[14]陈玉林,陈允平,孙金莉,等.电网故障诊断方法综述[J].中国电力,2006,39(5):27-31.CHEN Yulin,CHEN Yunping,SUN Jinli,et al.A survey of power system fault diagnoses[J].Electric Power,2006,39(5):27-31.
[2]唐正森.提高配电网供电可靠性措施的研究[D].长沙:长沙理工大学,2009.
[3]宋云亭,张东霞,吴俊玲,等.国内外城市配电网供电可靠性对比分析[J].电网技术,2008,32(23):13-18.SONG Yunting,ZHANG Dongxia,WU Junling,et al.Comparison and analysis on power supply reliability of urban powe distribution network at home and abroad[J].Power System Technology,2008,32(23):13-18.
[4]张巍峰,车延博,林济铿,等.基于改进抽样法的电力系统可靠性评估[J].中国电力,2015,48(5):56-63.ZHANG Weifeng,CHE Yanbo,LIN Jikeng,et al.Power system reliability evaluation based on improved sampling method[J]Electric Power,2015,48(5):56-63.
[5]钱虹,骆建波,金蔚霄,等.基于动态故障树的DEH系统优化的可靠性评价[J].中国电力,2014,47(5):92-96.QIAN Hong,LUO Jianbo,JIN Weixiao,et al.Reliabilit assessment of DEH system optimization based on dynamic faul tree analysis[J].Electric Power,2014,47(5):92-96.
[6]许荣,车建国,杨作宾,等.故障树分析法及其在系统可靠性分析中的应用[J].指挥控制与仿真,2010,32(1):112-115.XU Rong,CHE Jianguo,YANG Zuobin,et al.The fault tre analysis and its application in the system reliability analysis[J]Command Control&Simulation,2010,32(1):112-115.
[7]张丽英,王绵斌,谭忠富,等.基于集对故障树方法的电网安全运行风险评估模型[J].技术经济,2009,28(5):26-31.ZHANG Liying,WANG Mianbin,TAN Zhongfu,et al.Risk evaluation model of power grid security based on set pair and fault tree method[J].Technology Economics,2009,28(5):26-31.
[8]高文学,李建勋,王启,等.故障树分析法在城市燃气管道安全评价的应用[J].煤气与热力,2009,29(12):82-88.GAO Wenxue,LI Jianxun,WANG Qi,et al.Application of faul tree analysis to urban gas pipeline safety assessment[J].Gas&Heat,2009,29(12):82-88.
[9]刘岩.配电网供电可靠性评估方法与提高策略研究[D].北京华北电力大学,2014.
[10]杨家鸣.乌海电业局城市供电可靠性规划[D].北京:华北电力大学,2011.
[11]刘伟.海勃湾城市供电可靠性研究[D].天津:天津大学,2011.
[12]蔡伯华.基于供电可靠性的北京城市电网规划经济性研究[D]北京:华北电力大学,2012.
[13]刘娜,高文胜,谈克雄,等.大型电力变压器故障树的构建及分析[J].中国电力,2003,36(11):33-36.LIU Na,GAO Wensheng,TAN Kexiong,et al.Construction and analysis of fault tree for large-scale power transformer[J]Electric Power,2003,36(11):33-36.
[14]陈玉林,陈允平,孙金莉,等.电网故障诊断方法综述[J].中国电力,2006,39(5):27-31.CHEN Yulin,CHEN Yunping,SUN Jinli,et al.A survey of power system fault diagnoses[J].Electric Power,2006,39(5):27-31.