南昌市城镇空间扩展与景观生态风险的耦合关系
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摘要
为探究城镇用地空间扩展对景观生态风险的影响,以南昌市为例,运用遥感、GIS及数理统计的方法,借助城镇扩展强度指数研究了南昌市2000—2017年城镇空间扩展的时空变化特征,构建了景观生态风险指数,以3 km×3 km的单元网格进行系统采样,探究城镇扩展下南昌市景观格局的动态变化和景观生态风险,最后基于地理加权回归(GWR)模型,定量分析2000—2017年南昌市城镇空间扩展与景观生态风险之间的耦合关系。结果表明:(1)2000—2017年,南昌市城镇用地增加了247.56 km~2,年均扩展速率达17.75 km~2,其中2000—2005年扩展最快,呈现出剧烈扩展的态势,扩展强度达到0.55。城镇扩展主要沿正北和西北方向扩展,分布在青山湖区、南昌县、新建区等,总体上呈快速扩展趋势;(2)南昌市景观格局以耕地为主,建设用地快速扩张,耕地、林地、草地面积持续减少,土地利用的景观格局指数反映此期间人类活动的干扰程度加剧,景观斑块数量增加,整体破碎度提高。借助地统计分析方法,计算得到南昌市景观生态风险由2000年的0.1354上升至2017年的0.1420,景观生态风险呈逐渐升高的趋势;(3)2000—2017年,城镇用地面积与景观生态风险、城镇空间扩展强度指数和景观生态险变化值之间,都呈现负相关影响,后者相关性在减弱。回归系数的空间分布上,由中部向外逐渐升高,低值位于城镇扩展较快的南昌市区,城镇的快速扩展使城镇用面积大幅增加,景观破碎度、损失度降低,景观生态风险随之降低;高值出现在进贤县、安义县等经济发展缓慢的地区,城镇用地扩展幅度小,扩展边界斑块破碎度大,分离度上升,景观生态风险增加。研究结果为促进城市建设与生态环境保护的相互协调,正确评价人类活动对城市生态系统的影响,以及南昌市的可持续发展和科学管理提供借鉴。
This paper introduced the urban expansion intensity index to study the spatial and temporal variation characteristics of urban spatial expansion in Nanchang City from 2000 to 2017. Then, the 3 km × 3 km unit grid was systematically sampled to construct the landscape ecological risk index to explore dynamic changes in the landscape pattern and landscape ecological risk. Finally, by using the geographic weighted regression(GWR) model, the relationship between urban spatial expansion and landscape ecological risk in Nanchang City from 2000 to 2017 was quantitatively analyzed to explore the impact of urban land expansion on landscape ecological risk. The results showed that:(1) From 2000 to 2017, urban land use in Nanchang increased by 247.56 km~2, with an average annual expansion rate of 17.75 km~2. Among them, the fastest expansion strength was 0.55 in 2000—2005, showing a dramatic change. The urban expansion mainly expanded to the north and northwest, and was distributed in the Qingshan Lake District, Nanchang County, and Xinjian County, among others, which showed a rapid expansion trend;(2) The landscape pattern of Nanchang City was dominated by cultivated land, and the construction land was expanding rapidly. The area of cultivated land, forest land, and grassland continued to decline, and the landscape pattern index of land use reflected that the degree of disturbance of human activities increased during the period, the number of landscape patches increased, and the overall fragmentation increased. By using the geostatistical analysis method, the ecological risk of Nanchang City increased from 0.1354 to 0.1420 between 2000 and 2017, and the ecological risk gradually increased.(3) From 2000 to 2017, there was a negative correlation between urban land area and landscape ecological risk, the urban spatial expansion intensity index, and the landscape ecological risk change value, with the latter weakening. The spatial distribution of the regression coefficient gradually increased from the central part to the outside, and the low value was located in the Nanchang urban area where the urban expansion was relatively fast. The rapid expansion of the urban area has greatly increased the urban area, and the degree of fragmentation and loss degree have been reduced. Ecological risks are reduced. High values occurred in areas with slow economic development, such as Jinxian County and Anyi County. With a small extend of urban land use and large degree of extended boundary patches, the ecological risk of the landscape increased. The research results could promote the coordination between urban construction and ecological environmental protection, correctly evaluate the impact of human activities on urban ecosystems, and provide references for sustainable development and scientific management in Nanchang.
This paper introduced the urban expansion intensity index to study the spatial and temporal variation characteristics of urban spatial expansion in Nanchang City from 2000 to 2017. Then, the 3 km × 3 km unit grid was systematically sampled to construct the landscape ecological risk index to explore dynamic changes in the landscape pattern and landscape ecological risk. Finally, by using the geographic weighted regression(GWR) model, the relationship between urban spatial expansion and landscape ecological risk in Nanchang City from 2000 to 2017 was quantitatively analyzed to explore the impact of urban land expansion on landscape ecological risk. The results showed that:(1) From 2000 to 2017, urban land use in Nanchang increased by 247.56 km~2, with an average annual expansion rate of 17.75 km~2. Among them, the fastest expansion strength was 0.55 in 2000—2005, showing a dramatic change. The urban expansion mainly expanded to the north and northwest, and was distributed in the Qingshan Lake District, Nanchang County, and Xinjian County, among others, which showed a rapid expansion trend;(2) The landscape pattern of Nanchang City was dominated by cultivated land, and the construction land was expanding rapidly. The area of cultivated land, forest land, and grassland continued to decline, and the landscape pattern index of land use reflected that the degree of disturbance of human activities increased during the period, the number of landscape patches increased, and the overall fragmentation increased. By using the geostatistical analysis method, the ecological risk of Nanchang City increased from 0.1354 to 0.1420 between 2000 and 2017, and the ecological risk gradually increased.(3) From 2000 to 2017, there was a negative correlation between urban land area and landscape ecological risk, the urban spatial expansion intensity index, and the landscape ecological risk change value, with the latter weakening. The spatial distribution of the regression coefficient gradually increased from the central part to the outside, and the low value was located in the Nanchang urban area where the urban expansion was relatively fast. The rapid expansion of the urban area has greatly increased the urban area, and the degree of fragmentation and loss degree have been reduced. Ecological risks are reduced. High values occurred in areas with slow economic development, such as Jinxian County and Anyi County. With a small extend of urban land use and large degree of extended boundary patches, the ecological risk of the landscape increased. The research results could promote the coordination between urban construction and ecological environmental protection, correctly evaluate the impact of human activities on urban ecosystems, and provide references for sustainable development and scientific management in Nanchang.
引文
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[26] Gong J, Yang J X, Tang W W. Spatially explicit landscape-level ecological risks induced by land use and land cover change in a national ecologically representative region in China. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 2015, 12(11): 14192-14215.
[27] 黄寒江, 葛大兵, 肖智华. 洞庭湖生态经济区景观生态风险评价. 农业现代化研究, 2018, 39(3): 478-485.
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[30] 庞瑞秋, 腾飞, 魏冶. 基于地理加权回归的吉林省人口城镇化动力机制分析. 地理科学, 2014, 34(10): 1210-1217.
[31] 蒙永辉, 王集宁. 基于地理加权回归的莱州湾南岸土壤盐渍化与环境因子的关系研究. 地质论评, 2018, 64(5): 1180-1189.
[32] 尹上岗, 宋伟轩, 马志飞, 李在军, 吴启焰. 南京市住宅价格时空分异格局及其影响因素分析——基于地理加权回归模型的实证研究. 人文地理, 2018, 33(3): 68-77.
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[2] 李双成, 赵志强, 王仰麟. 中国城市化过程及其资源与生态环境效应机制. 地理科学进展, 2009, 28(1): 63-70.
[3] 石铁矛, 李绥. 基于空间信息技术的城镇化生态风险预警研究——以南充市为例. 城市规划, 2012, 36(2): 51-57.
[4] 龚艳冰. 基于正态云模型和熵权的河西走廊城市化生态风险综合评价. 干旱区资源与环境, 2012, 26(5): 169-174.
[5] 吴永娇, 马海州, 董锁成. 城市扩张进程中水环境污染成本响应模拟. 地理研究, 2009, 28(2): 311-320.
[6] 吴宏安, 蒋建军, 张海龙, 张丽, 解修平, 周杰. 西安地区城镇扩展及其生态环境效应研究. 自然资源学报, 2006, 21(2): 311-318.
[7] 檀满枝, 陈杰, 张学雷. 基于RS和GIS苏州市近20年来城镇扩展对土壤资源的影响研究. 土壤, 2004, 36(6): 621-625.
[8] Karl T R, Diaz H F, Kukla G. Urbanization: Its detection and effect in the United States climate record. Journal of Climate, 1988, 1(11): 1099-1123.
[9] 李广娣, 冯长春, 曹敏政. 基于土地生态敏感性评价的城市空间增长策略研究——以铜陵市为例. 城市发展研究, 2013, 20(11): 69-74.
[10] 刘嘉勋. 城市扩展模拟与生态空间质量约束的城市开发边界划定研究[D]. 南京: 南京大学, 2018.
[11] Tang Z, Engel B A, Pijanowski B C, Lim K J. Forecasting land use change and its environmental impact at a watershed scale. Journal of Environmental Management, 2005, 76(1): 35-45.
[12] 任晓娟, 陈晓键, 马泉. 中国城市增长边界的研究进程及观点综述. 华中建筑, 2018, 36(1): 11-15.
[13] 蔺雪芹, 王岱, 刘旭. 北京城市空间扩展的生态环境响应及驱动力. 生态环境学报, 2015, 24(7): 1159-1165.
[14] 吴永娇, 马海州, 董锁成, 仝彩蓉. 城市化进程中生态环境响应模型研究——以西安为例. 地理科学, 2009, 29(1): 64-70.
[15] 邱从毫, 李阳兵, 冯元嵩. 贵阳市城市土地扩展空间的生态适宜性与优化. 应用生态学报, 2015, 26(9): 2777-2784.
[16] Alberti M, Marzluff J M. Ecological resilience in urban ecosystems: linking urban patterns to human and ecological functions. Urban Ecosystems, 2004, 7(3): 241-265.
[17] 曹祺文, 张曦文, 马洪坤, 吴健生. 景观生态风险研究进展及基于生态系统服务的评价框架: ESRISK. 地理学报, 2018, 73(5): 843-855.
[18] 刘世梁, 刘琦, 张兆苓, 邓丽, 董世魁. 云南省红河流域景观生态风险及驱动力分析. 生态学报, 2014, 34(13): 3728-3734.
[19] 谢小平, 陈芝聪, 王芳, 白毛伟, 徐文阳. 基于景观格局的太湖流域生态风险评估. 应用生态学报, 2017, 28(10): 3369-3377.
[20] 吕乐婷, 张杰, 孙才志, 王晓蕊, 郑德凤. 基于土地利用变化的细河流域景观生态风险评估. 生态学报, 2018, 38(16): 5952-5960.
[21] 吴莉, 侯西勇, 邸向红. 山东省沿海区域景观生态风险评价. 生态学杂志, 2014, 33(1): 214-220.
[22] 关兴良, 胡仕林, 蔺雪芹, 鲁莎莎. 武汉城市群城镇用地扩展的动态模式及其驱动机制. 长江流域资源与环境, 2014, 23(11): 1493-1501.
[23] 王琳娟, 甄江红, 何孙鹏. 呼和浩特市区景观生态风险动态评价. 内蒙古农业大学学报: 自然科学版, 2016, 37(3): 37-43.
[24] 潘竟虎, 刘晓. 疏勒河流域景观生态风险评价与生态安全格局优化构建. 生态学杂志, 2016, 35(3): 791-799.
[25] Maanan M, Saddik M, Maanan M, Chaibi M, Assobhei O, Zourarah B. Environmental and ecological risk assessment of heavy metals in sediments of Nador lagoon, Morocco. Ecological Indicators, 2015, 48: 616-626.
[26] Gong J, Yang J X, Tang W W. Spatially explicit landscape-level ecological risks induced by land use and land cover change in a national ecologically representative region in China. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 2015, 12(11): 14192-14215.
[27] 黄寒江, 葛大兵, 肖智华. 洞庭湖生态经济区景观生态风险评价. 农业现代化研究, 2018, 39(3): 478-485.
[28] 刘春艳, 张科, 刘吉平. 1976-2013年三江平原景观生态风险变化及驱动力. 生态学报, 2018, 38(11): 3729-3740.
[29] 彭建, 党威雄, 刘焱序, 宗敏丽, 胡晓旭. 景观生态风险评价研究进展与展望. 地理学报, 2015, 70(4): 664-677.
[30] 庞瑞秋, 腾飞, 魏冶. 基于地理加权回归的吉林省人口城镇化动力机制分析. 地理科学, 2014, 34(10): 1210-1217.
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