不同季节划分尺度下巢湖流域气候变化趋势分析
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摘要
根据现代气候学、候平均气温及气象学上的季节划分等3种不同的季节划分方法,利用国家气候中心发布的1961～2010年气象台站观测资料插值格点化数据集(CN05.1),选取巢湖流域内及其周边的26个格点气温、降水量资料,运用年代际变化、距平、回归分析以及Mann-Kendall方法,分析比较巢湖流域近50a三类季节的气温、降水量变化趋势和特征。结果表明:3种方法划分出不同季节,分析温度和降水的变化趋势时,它们各自的结果有所差异,甚至差别相当明显,运用气象学季节划分方法就成功地推翻了全球变暖的说法。所以在全球变暖的大背景下,分析季节的气候变化应考虑每年实际气温,从多尺度进行分析,才能得到准确而又科学的结果。
Global climatic change is one of the most complex challenges to human today,and global environmental change has a huge impact on social economic activities,agriculture environment and the ecological system.IPCC fourth climatic change assessment report said that the global surface temperature rose by 0.74 between 1906 and 2005,and the temperature increased significantly.China average surface temperature rises significantly in recent 100 years,and the warming range is about 0.5-0.8.The temperature rise directly leads to the change of the length of four seasons.The change of the starting date of four seasons and the change of the temperature is consistent.The different methods of warming statistics leads directly to the inconsistency of the amplitude of the warming.According to three different season dividing methods,such as the division of season by modern climatology,season average temperature and meteorology,the author made use of the observational data based on more than 2400 ground meteorological offices and stations issued by the national climate center,and established a set of data set(CN05.1) in grids of 0.25×0.25 longitude resolution,and then selected 26 lattice point temperature precipitation data in the Claohu basin and its surrounding between 1961 and 2010.The author also applied the interdecadal change,anomaly,regression analysis and Mann-Kendall method to analyze and compare the trends and characteristics of temperature and precipitation changes of three seasons in recent 50 years.The result showed that,to different seasons divided by three methods,when the change trend of temperature and precipitation was analyzed,the result of theirs was different,even quite obviously different.From the three different interdecadal change of spring air temperature in nearly 50 years,the air temperature of meteorological spring and Houwen spring was 0.9 higher than the temperature of climatic spring,and the temperature change of the spring analyzed by climatic spring was different.The comparison of summer temperature changes showed that the temperature of climatic summer turned on great fluctuation,which reflected the characteristics of today summer air temperature.The temperature of climatic fall showed stable rise,and the temperature of weather fall turned on large variation,whose trend was not obvious.Three kinds of winter air temperature had significant rise,among which the sudden change of the weather winter and climatic winter occurred in the early 1980s,while the change of Houwen winter occurred in the mid 1960s.All kinds of rainfall change trend of the same season was similar on the whole,but there were obvious differences in fluctuation range and mutation time between them.The reason of the phenomenon is that under the big background of global warming the days of spring and autumn become less,resulting in big differences of calculated data of each season,which affects the seasonal change trend level.Using meteorology seasonal division method can overthrow the statement of global warming successfully.Thus,climate change of the season should consider the actual temperature every year,and be analyzed by multiscale.
Global climatic change is one of the most complex challenges to human today,and global environmental change has a huge impact on social economic activities,agriculture environment and the ecological system.IPCC fourth climatic change assessment report said that the global surface temperature rose by 0.74 between 1906 and 2005,and the temperature increased significantly.China average surface temperature rises significantly in recent 100 years,and the warming range is about 0.5-0.8.The temperature rise directly leads to the change of the length of four seasons.The change of the starting date of four seasons and the change of the temperature is consistent.The different methods of warming statistics leads directly to the inconsistency of the amplitude of the warming.According to three different season dividing methods,such as the division of season by modern climatology,season average temperature and meteorology,the author made use of the observational data based on more than 2400 ground meteorological offices and stations issued by the national climate center,and established a set of data set(CN05.1) in grids of 0.25×0.25 longitude resolution,and then selected 26 lattice point temperature precipitation data in the Claohu basin and its surrounding between 1961 and 2010.The author also applied the interdecadal change,anomaly,regression analysis and Mann-Kendall method to analyze and compare the trends and characteristics of temperature and precipitation changes of three seasons in recent 50 years.The result showed that,to different seasons divided by three methods,when the change trend of temperature and precipitation was analyzed,the result of theirs was different,even quite obviously different.From the three different interdecadal change of spring air temperature in nearly 50 years,the air temperature of meteorological spring and Houwen spring was 0.9 higher than the temperature of climatic spring,and the temperature change of the spring analyzed by climatic spring was different.The comparison of summer temperature changes showed that the temperature of climatic summer turned on great fluctuation,which reflected the characteristics of today summer air temperature.The temperature of climatic fall showed stable rise,and the temperature of weather fall turned on large variation,whose trend was not obvious.Three kinds of winter air temperature had significant rise,among which the sudden change of the weather winter and climatic winter occurred in the early 1980s,while the change of Houwen winter occurred in the mid 1960s.All kinds of rainfall change trend of the same season was similar on the whole,but there were obvious differences in fluctuation range and mutation time between them.The reason of the phenomenon is that under the big background of global warming the days of spring and autumn become less,resulting in big differences of calculated data of each season,which affects the seasonal change trend level.Using meteorology seasonal division method can overthrow the statement of global warming successfully.Thus,climate change of the season should consider the actual temperature every year,and be analyzed by multiscale.
引文
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[10]张世轩,支蓉,封国林,等.中国东部地区前冬季节来临早晚与夏季降水的关系探究[J].大气科学,2012,36(3):564-578.
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[14]李海东,沈渭寿,佘光辉,等.雅鲁藏布江中游河谷气温时序变化的小波分析[J].长江流域资源与环境,2010,19(z2):87-93.
[15]石涛,杨元建,蒋跃林,等.城市热岛强度变化对安徽省气温序列的影响[J].气候与环境研究,2011,16(6):779-788.
[16]任国玉,吴虹,陈正洪.我国降水变化趋势的空间特征[J].应用气象学报,2000,11(3):322-330.
[17]江俊杰,孙卫国.1959～2007年安徽省降水时空变化特征分析[J].中国农业气象,2012,33(1):27-33.
[2]IPCC.IPCC fourth assessment report:Climate change 2007(AR4)[R/OL].[2010-01-20].http://ipcc-wgl.ucar.edu/wgl/wgl-report html.
[3]张晶晶,陈爽,赵昕奕.近50年中国气温变化的区域差异与全球气候变化的联系[J].干旱区资源与环境,2006,20(4):1-6.
[4]郁珍艳,范广洲,华维,等.气温突变对我国四季开始日期的影响[J].气象,2010,36(11):32-37.
[5]郁珍艳,范广洲,华维,等.近47年我国四季长度的变化研究[J].高原气象,2011,30(1):182-190.
[6]孙树鹏,张璐,侯威,等.基于非线性相似度量方法研究中国季节划分[J].物理学报,2011,60(2):029201-1-029201-7.
[7]张世轩,张璐,孙树鹏,等.全球变暖情况下中国季节的变化[J].高原气象,2011,30(3):659-667.
[8]赵俊虎,封国林,张世轩,等.近48年中国的季节变化与极端温度事件的联系[J].物理学报,2011,60(9):099205-1-099205-9.
[9]侯威,孙树鹏,张世轩,等.东亚地区大气环流的季节划分及其时空变化特征[J].物理学报,2011,60(10):109201-1-109201-9.
[10]张世轩,支蓉,封国林,等.中国东部地区前冬季节来临早晚与夏季降水的关系探究[J].大气科学,2012,36(3):564-578.
[11]XU Y,GAO X J,SHEN Y,et al.A daily temperature datasetover China and its application in validating a RCM simulation[J].Advances in Atmospheric Sciences,2009,26:763-772.
[12]崔建英.气温测算与季节划分[J].统计与管理,2006,6(22):65-66.
[13]SU B D,JIANG T.Recent trends in temperature and pre-cipitation extremes in the Yangtze River basin,China[J].Theoretical and Applied Climatology,2006,83(1-4):139-151.
[14]李海东,沈渭寿,佘光辉,等.雅鲁藏布江中游河谷气温时序变化的小波分析[J].长江流域资源与环境,2010,19(z2):87-93.
[15]石涛,杨元建,蒋跃林,等.城市热岛强度变化对安徽省气温序列的影响[J].气候与环境研究,2011,16(6):779-788.
[16]任国玉,吴虹,陈正洪.我国降水变化趋势的空间特征[J].应用气象学报,2000,11(3):322-330.
[17]江俊杰,孙卫国.1959～2007年安徽省降水时空变化特征分析[J].中国农业气象,2012,33(1):27-33.
目录
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