铜陵市近49年气温变化特征及其趋势分析
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摘要
气候变化已成为当前各国关注的重大环境问题,气温变化特征及其趋势分析是研究气候变化的重要内容。根据铜陵市气象站1960~2008年气温观测资料,采用线性回归法、Mann-Kendall法和累积距平法,分析了近49年来铜陵市气温变化特征及其趋势。结果表明:(1)近49年来,铜陵市年平均气温呈上升趋势,气候倾向率为0.208℃/10a,且达到0.05显著水平,气温时间序列在2004年发生了由低温向高温突变。(2)年内气温变化存在季节性差异,除夏季外,春、秋、冬3个季节气温均呈上升趋势且达到0.05显著性水平,春季升温最为明显,其次为冬季和秋季。夏季气温升幅最小。
Climate change has become the major international environmental issue.The characteristics and tendencies of temperature variation were the main study content of climate change.Based on the air temperature data of Tongling from 1960 to 2008,using linear regression method,Mann-Kendall method and accumulative anomaly method,the characteristics and tendencies of annual temperature variation were analyzed.The results showed that:(1) In the last 49 years,the annual average temperature in Tongling was in upward tendency obviously,and the average rising rate was 0.208℃ per 10 years.There was an abrupt temperature change in 2004.(2)There were seasonal differences on the variation of temperature.The temperature in spring,autumn and winter ascended and their temperature increases were significant at 0.05 leve1.The variation of summer temperature was the minimum.
Climate change has become the major international environmental issue.The characteristics and tendencies of temperature variation were the main study content of climate change.Based on the air temperature data of Tongling from 1960 to 2008,using linear regression method,Mann-Kendall method and accumulative anomaly method,the characteristics and tendencies of annual temperature variation were analyzed.The results showed that:(1) In the last 49 years,the annual average temperature in Tongling was in upward tendency obviously,and the average rising rate was 0.208℃ per 10 years.There was an abrupt temperature change in 2004.(2)There were seasonal differences on the variation of temperature.The temperature in spring,autumn and winter ascended and their temperature increases were significant at 0.05 leve1.The variation of summer temperature was the minimum.
引文
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[11]刘玲,张庆国,陈庭甫,等.安庆市多年气象数据定量分析[J].安徽农学通报,2008,14(7):131-133.
[2]王国庆,张建云,贺瑞敏,等.黄河兰州上游地区降水、气温变化及趋势诊断[J].干旱地区资源与环境,2009,23(1):77-81.
[3]屠其璞.气温序列的延长与插补[J].气象,1984,6(5):14-16.
[4]任国玉,初子莹,周雅清,等.中国气温变化研究最新进展[J].气候与环境研究,2005,10(4):701-716.
[5]张国庆,李鹏飞,黄立,等.全球未来50年平均气温的时间序列分析与预测[J].甘肃科技,2008,24(17):72-74.
[6]康丽莉,顾俊强,樊高峰.兰江流域近43年气候变化及对水资源的影响[J].气象,2007,33(2):70-75.
[7]符淙斌.气候突变现象的研究[J].大气科学,1994,18(3):373-384.
[8]刘春玲,许有鹏,张强.长江三角洲地区气候变化趋势及突变分析[J].曲阜师范大学学报,2005,31(1):109-114.
[9]张宝军,马金珠,赵鑫,等.近5O年来民勤县气温变化特征及其原因分析[J].干旱地区农业研究,2007,25(2):226-229.
[10]姜彤,苏不达,王艳君等.四十年来长江流域气温、降水与径流变化趋势[J].气候变化研究进展,2005,1(2):65-68.
[11]刘玲,张庆国,陈庭甫,等.安庆市多年气象数据定量分析[J].安徽农学通报,2008,14(7):131-133.
目录
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