安徽省农业碳排放的时空特征及影响因素研究
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摘要
利用农业碳排放测算方法和因素分解模型,对安徽省农业碳排放的时空分布特征及影响因素进行定量分析,结果显示:安徽省农业碳排放量逐年增长,农业用电和化肥消耗为其主要碳源,分别占排放总量的30.99%和47.50%,而碳排放强度则呈"波动起伏-稳步下降"两阶段变化特征;碳排放呈现明显的区域差异,其中碳排放总量分布与区域农业经济规模关系密切,而碳排放强度高值区主要集中在马鞍山、铜陵和淮南3个矿产资源型地市;在影响因素方面,农业效率因素、结构因素、劳动力因素对碳排放增长起到抑制作用,其年均减排贡献量分别为23.23、13.87和3.80万t,而农业经济发展因素则极大地驱动碳排放量的增长,年均增排贡献量达68.00万t。
In this paper,spatial-temporal characteristics and affecting factors of agriculture carbon emission in Anhui province form 2000 to 2013 is analyzed by calculation method of agriculture carbon emission and factor decomposition model. The result shows that: During the past fourteen years,agriculture carbon emission in Anhui province showed increased trend,and proportions of electrofarming and chemical fertilizer consumption are 30. 99% and 47. 50% respectively,while carbon emission intensity displays an obvious"fluctuate-steadily declining"phase-change characteristic,fluctuating form 2000 to 2005 and decreasing from 2006-2013;Agriculture carbon emission in different regions varies wildly. Regional distribution of gross emissions is closely related to agricultural economy scale,and high intensity area is concentrated in the minerals resource type city( Ma-anshan,Tongling and Huainan); Production efficiency,agricultural structure and labor force have inhibitory action on agricultural carbon emissions,with average contributions of 23. 23 × 104、13. 87 × 104and3. 80 × 104 t per annum,while the development of agriculture has a promotive effect,with average contribution of 68. 00 × 104 t per annum.
In this paper,spatial-temporal characteristics and affecting factors of agriculture carbon emission in Anhui province form 2000 to 2013 is analyzed by calculation method of agriculture carbon emission and factor decomposition model. The result shows that: During the past fourteen years,agriculture carbon emission in Anhui province showed increased trend,and proportions of electrofarming and chemical fertilizer consumption are 30. 99% and 47. 50% respectively,while carbon emission intensity displays an obvious"fluctuate-steadily declining"phase-change characteristic,fluctuating form 2000 to 2005 and decreasing from 2006-2013;Agriculture carbon emission in different regions varies wildly. Regional distribution of gross emissions is closely related to agricultural economy scale,and high intensity area is concentrated in the minerals resource type city( Ma-anshan,Tongling and Huainan); Production efficiency,agricultural structure and labor force have inhibitory action on agricultural carbon emissions,with average contributions of 23. 23 × 104、13. 87 × 104and3. 80 × 104 t per annum,while the development of agriculture has a promotive effect,with average contribution of 68. 00 × 104 t per annum.
引文
[1]何婷婷,张丽琼.安徽省农业碳排放现状及低碳农业发展路径探讨[J].安徽农业大学学报(社会科学版),2012,21(5):30-34.
[2]ACIL Tasman Pty Ltd.Agriculture and GHG mitigation policy:Options in addition to the CPRS[M].New South Wales:Industry&Investment NSW,2009.
[3]田云,张俊飚,李波.中国农业碳排放研究:测算、时空比较及脱钩效应[J].资源科学,2012,34(11):2097-2105.
[4]李国志,李宗植.中国农业能源消费碳排放因素分解实证分析—基于LMDI模型[J].农业技术经济,2010,(10):66-72.
[5]高标,房骄,许清涛,等.吉林省农业碳排放动态变化及驱动因素分析[J].农业现代化研究,2013,34(5):617-621.
[6]李波.经济增长与农业碳排放关系的实证研究[J].生态环境学报,2012,21(2):220-224.
[7]Ang B W.Decomposition analysis for policymaking in energy:What is preferred method[J].Energy Policy,2004,32(9):1131-1139.
[8]Ang B W,Zhang F Q,Choi K H.Factorizing changes in energy and environmental indicators through decomposition[J].Energy,1998,23(6):489-495.
[9]安徽省统计局.安徽统计年鉴[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2001~2014.
[10]国家统计局农村社会经济调查司.中国农村统计年鉴[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2001~2014.
[2]ACIL Tasman Pty Ltd.Agriculture and GHG mitigation policy:Options in addition to the CPRS[M].New South Wales:Industry&Investment NSW,2009.
[3]田云,张俊飚,李波.中国农业碳排放研究:测算、时空比较及脱钩效应[J].资源科学,2012,34(11):2097-2105.
[4]李国志,李宗植.中国农业能源消费碳排放因素分解实证分析—基于LMDI模型[J].农业技术经济,2010,(10):66-72.
[5]高标,房骄,许清涛,等.吉林省农业碳排放动态变化及驱动因素分析[J].农业现代化研究,2013,34(5):617-621.
[6]李波.经济增长与农业碳排放关系的实证研究[J].生态环境学报,2012,21(2):220-224.
[7]Ang B W.Decomposition analysis for policymaking in energy:What is preferred method[J].Energy Policy,2004,32(9):1131-1139.
[8]Ang B W,Zhang F Q,Choi K H.Factorizing changes in energy and environmental indicators through decomposition[J].Energy,1998,23(6):489-495.
[9]安徽省统计局.安徽统计年鉴[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2001~2014.
[10]国家统计局农村社会经济调查司.中国农村统计年鉴[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2001~2014.
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