地震预报的新途径——加卸载响应比理论
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摘要
从力学角度看,地震的孕育过程实质上是孕震区介质的损伤演化过程,这个过程主要是一个力学过程.但解决与地震预测有关的力学问题与工程中的力学问题有许多不同之处.通常力学问题的解决需要知道其本构关系、边界条件、初始条件以及某些力学量的变化历史(如流变).但是在地震孕育过程中它们却是未知的或者不完全知道的.人们知道的只是地壳中某些物理量的变化.由此提出了加卸载响应比作为一种地震预测的新途径,并简述了加卸载响应比的基本概念、实际应用及一些最新结果.
From the viewpoint of mechanics, the essence of seismogenic process is the damage evolution of the focal media, so it is mainly a mechanical process. But the earthquake prediction is different from other mechanics problems in engineering. The constitutive law, boundary condition, initial condition and the history of some mechanics quantities (such as rheology) must be known in a resolvable mechanics problem in engineering. But in earthquake generation they are unknown or almost unknown, and only the variation of some physical quantities in the earth crust can be measured. Prom this consideration, the concept of load/unload response ratio (LURR) was proposed as a new approach to earthquake prediction. In this paper the basic concepts, case-examination and some new results of LURR are introduced.
From the viewpoint of mechanics, the essence of seismogenic process is the damage evolution of the focal media, so it is mainly a mechanical process. But the earthquake prediction is different from other mechanics problems in engineering. The constitutive law, boundary condition, initial condition and the history of some mechanics quantities (such as rheology) must be known in a resolvable mechanics problem in engineering. But in earthquake generation they are unknown or almost unknown, and only the variation of some physical quantities in the earth crust can be measured. Prom this consideration, the concept of load/unload response ratio (LURR) was proposed as a new approach to earthquake prediction. In this paper the basic concepts, case-examination and some new results of LURR are introduced.
引文
1 尹祥础.固体力学.地震出版社, 1985(Yin Xiangchu.SolidMechanics.Beijing:Seismological Press,1985(in Chi-nese))
2 尹祥础.地震预测新途径的探索.中国地震, 1987,3(1) :1～7(Yin Xiangchu.Exploring new approach to earthquake pre-diction.Earthquake Research in China,1987,3(1) :1-7 (inChinese))
3 尹祥础,尹灿.非线性系统的失稳前兆与地震预测.中国科学,1991(5) :512-518(Yin Xiangchu,Yin Can.The pre-cursor of instability for nonlinear systems and its applica-tion to earthquake prediction.Science in China,1991 (5) :512-518(in Chinese))
4 1993(1) :21-27(Yin Xiangchu.Russia's Na-ture,1993(1) :21-27 (in Russian))
5 Yin Xiangchu,Yin Can,Chen Xuezhong.The precursor 0f instability for nonlinear system and its application to earthquake prediction-the load-unload response ratio (LURR) theory. In: Naman WI, Gabrelov AM, eds. Non-linear dynamics and Predictability of Geophysical Phenomena. AGU Geophysical Monograph, 1994, 83: 55-60
6 Yin Xiangchu, Chen Xuezhong, Song Zhiping, et al. A new approach to earthquake prediction-the load/unload response ratio (LURR) theory. Pure and Applied Geophysics, 1995, 145(3/4) : 701-715
7 Yin Xiangchu, Wang Yucang, Pang Keyin, et al. Development of a new approach to earthquake prediction-load/unload response ratio (LURR) theory. Pure Appl Geophys, 2000, 157: 2365-2383
9 Mora P, Wang Y, Yin C, et al. Simulation of load-unload response ratio and critical sensitivity in the lattice solid model. Pure Appl Geophys, 2002, 159: 2525-2536
10 王海涛,彭克银,张永仙等.新疆伽师强震群过程中加卸载响应比变化特征.科学通报, 1998:1109～1111(Wang Haitao, Peng Keyin, Zhang Yongxian, et al. Characters of variation of LURR during the earthquake sequence of Xinjiang. Chinese Sciences Bulletin, 1998, 43(20) : 1752-1755 (in Chinese))
11 Yin XC, Mora P, Peng KY, et al. Load-unload response ratio and accelerating moment/energy release. Critical region scaling and earthquake prediction. Pure Appl Geophys, 2002, 159: 2511-2524
12 尹祥础,陈学忠,宋志平等.关东等地区加卸载响应比的时间变化及其预测意义.中国地震, 1996,12(3) :31～335 (Yin Xiangchu, Chen Xuezong, Song Zheping, et al. The temporal variation of LURR in Kanto and other regions in Japan and its application to earthquake prediction. Earthquake Research in China, 1996(10) : 381-385 (in Chinese))
13 陈学忠,尹祥础.水库地震主震前加卸载响应比的变化特征.中国地震, 1995,11(4) :361～367 (Chen Xuezhong, Yin Xiangchu. Application of the theory of load/unload response ratio (LURR) to prediction of reservoir-induced earthquakes. Earthquake Research in China, 1995, 11(4) : 361-367 (in Chinese))
14 尹祥础,尹迅飞,余怀忠等.加卸载响应比理论用于矿震预测的初步研究.地震, 2004(1) (Yin Xiangchu, Yin Xunfei, Yu Huaizhong, et al. A primary study of application to mining earthquake prediction in terms of the theory of Theory of Load/Unload Response Ratio (LURR). Earthquake, 2004(1) (in Chinese))
15 许强,黄润秋.用加卸载响应比理论探讨斜坡失稳前兆.中国地质灾害与防治学报, 1995,6(2) :22～31 (Xu Qiang, Huang Runqiu. A theoretical study of the slope instability using the theory of load/unload response ratio (LURR). The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control, 1995, 6(2) : 22-31 (in Chinese))
16 Bai YL, Lu CS, Ke FJ, et al. Evolution induced catastro-phy. Phys Lett, 1994 (A185) : 196-199
17 Li HL, Bai YL, Xia MF, et al. Damige localization as a possible precursor of earthquake rupture. PAGEOPH, 2000, 157: 1929-1943
18 Wei Yujie, Xia Mengfen, Ke Fujiu, et al. Evolution induced catastrophe and its predictability. PAGEOPH, 2000, 157: 1945-1957
19 Xia MF, Ke FJ, Bai YL. Evolution induced catastrophy in a nonlinear model. Nonlinear Dynamics, 2000, 22: 205-224
20 Yin Xiangchu, Yu Huaizhong, Victor Kukshenko, et al. Load-unload response ratio (LURR), accelerating energy release (AER) and state vector evolution as precursors to failure of rock specimens. Pure Appl Geophys, 2004, 161 (11/12)
2 尹祥础.地震预测新途径的探索.中国地震, 1987,3(1) :1～7(Yin Xiangchu.Exploring new approach to earthquake pre-diction.Earthquake Research in China,1987,3(1) :1-7 (inChinese))
3 尹祥础,尹灿.非线性系统的失稳前兆与地震预测.中国科学,1991(5) :512-518(Yin Xiangchu,Yin Can.The pre-cursor of instability for nonlinear systems and its applica-tion to earthquake prediction.Science in China,1991 (5) :512-518(in Chinese))
4 1993(1) :21-27(Yin Xiangchu.Russia's Na-ture,1993(1) :21-27 (in Russian))
5 Yin Xiangchu,Yin Can,Chen Xuezhong.The precursor 0f instability for nonlinear system and its application to earthquake prediction-the load-unload response ratio (LURR) theory. In: Naman WI, Gabrelov AM, eds. Non-linear dynamics and Predictability of Geophysical Phenomena. AGU Geophysical Monograph, 1994, 83: 55-60
6 Yin Xiangchu, Chen Xuezhong, Song Zhiping, et al. A new approach to earthquake prediction-the load/unload response ratio (LURR) theory. Pure and Applied Geophysics, 1995, 145(3/4) : 701-715
7 Yin Xiangchu, Wang Yucang, Pang Keyin, et al. Development of a new approach to earthquake prediction-load/unload response ratio (LURR) theory. Pure Appl Geophys, 2000, 157: 2365-2383
9 Mora P, Wang Y, Yin C, et al. Simulation of load-unload response ratio and critical sensitivity in the lattice solid model. Pure Appl Geophys, 2002, 159: 2525-2536
10 王海涛,彭克银,张永仙等.新疆伽师强震群过程中加卸载响应比变化特征.科学通报, 1998:1109～1111(Wang Haitao, Peng Keyin, Zhang Yongxian, et al. Characters of variation of LURR during the earthquake sequence of Xinjiang. Chinese Sciences Bulletin, 1998, 43(20) : 1752-1755 (in Chinese))
11 Yin XC, Mora P, Peng KY, et al. Load-unload response ratio and accelerating moment/energy release. Critical region scaling and earthquake prediction. Pure Appl Geophys, 2002, 159: 2511-2524
12 尹祥础,陈学忠,宋志平等.关东等地区加卸载响应比的时间变化及其预测意义.中国地震, 1996,12(3) :31～335 (Yin Xiangchu, Chen Xuezong, Song Zheping, et al. The temporal variation of LURR in Kanto and other regions in Japan and its application to earthquake prediction. Earthquake Research in China, 1996(10) : 381-385 (in Chinese))
13 陈学忠,尹祥础.水库地震主震前加卸载响应比的变化特征.中国地震, 1995,11(4) :361～367 (Chen Xuezhong, Yin Xiangchu. Application of the theory of load/unload response ratio (LURR) to prediction of reservoir-induced earthquakes. Earthquake Research in China, 1995, 11(4) : 361-367 (in Chinese))
14 尹祥础,尹迅飞,余怀忠等.加卸载响应比理论用于矿震预测的初步研究.地震, 2004(1) (Yin Xiangchu, Yin Xunfei, Yu Huaizhong, et al. A primary study of application to mining earthquake prediction in terms of the theory of Theory of Load/Unload Response Ratio (LURR). Earthquake, 2004(1) (in Chinese))
15 许强,黄润秋.用加卸载响应比理论探讨斜坡失稳前兆.中国地质灾害与防治学报, 1995,6(2) :22～31 (Xu Qiang, Huang Runqiu. A theoretical study of the slope instability using the theory of load/unload response ratio (LURR). The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control, 1995, 6(2) : 22-31 (in Chinese))
16 Bai YL, Lu CS, Ke FJ, et al. Evolution induced catastro-phy. Phys Lett, 1994 (A185) : 196-199
17 Li HL, Bai YL, Xia MF, et al. Damige localization as a possible precursor of earthquake rupture. PAGEOPH, 2000, 157: 1929-1943
18 Wei Yujie, Xia Mengfen, Ke Fujiu, et al. Evolution induced catastrophe and its predictability. PAGEOPH, 2000, 157: 1945-1957
19 Xia MF, Ke FJ, Bai YL. Evolution induced catastrophy in a nonlinear model. Nonlinear Dynamics, 2000, 22: 205-224
20 Yin Xiangchu, Yu Huaizhong, Victor Kukshenko, et al. Load-unload response ratio (LURR), accelerating energy release (AER) and state vector evolution as precursors to failure of rock specimens. Pure Appl Geophys, 2004, 161 (11/12)
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