希腊Ionian海Kefallinia转换断裂带的地震复发行为
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摘要
采用历史地震资料和统计方法研究了希腊Ionian海Kefallinia转换断裂带的两条断层(Kefallinia和Lefkada)的整体强地震复发行为。研究发现,Kefallinia断层的地震复发行为表现出丛集性特征,存在时间可预测复发行为;Lefkada断层的地震复发行为具有近随机性特征,不存在时间可预测及滑动可预测的复发行为。造成其地震复发行为不同的原因可能有:(a)沿Kefallinia断裂带走向,由静力触发引起的断层分段间的相互作用;(b)Lefkada断层的地震复发行为受北部和东部的断层系影响。另外,活跃期内地震复发间隔分布的分散性较大,可用韦伯( Weibull)分布近似描述;而平静期持续时间分布的分散性不够,这样的分布不便进行拟合。
We examined the whole strong earthquake recurrence behaviors of two fault zones along the Kefallinia Transform, Ionian Sea, Greece, using seismological data and statistical methods. We found different recurrence behaviors for the Kefallinia Fault Zone (clustering and time-predictable recurrence behaviors) and the Lefkada Fault Zone (near random and non-slip-predictable or non-time-predictable recurrence nature). The different modes may be attributed to: (a) segment interaction along-strike (Kefallinia) by static triggering and (b) the influence of fault systems to the north and east on the recurrence on Lefkada. Within the active periods, earthquake recurrence intervals are distributed in a more dispersed fashion, and can be fitted well by a Weibull distribution. In contrast, the distribution of the quiet periods is relatively less dispersed and difficult to describe by suitable probability functions.
We examined the whole strong earthquake recurrence behaviors of two fault zones along the Kefallinia Transform, Ionian Sea, Greece, using seismological data and statistical methods. We found different recurrence behaviors for the Kefallinia Fault Zone (clustering and time-predictable recurrence behaviors) and the Lefkada Fault Zone (near random and non-slip-predictable or non-time-predictable recurrence nature). The different modes may be attributed to: (a) segment interaction along-strike (Kefallinia) by static triggering and (b) the influence of fault systems to the north and east on the recurrence on Lefkada. Within the active periods, earthquake recurrence intervals are distributed in a more dispersed fashion, and can be fitted well by a Weibull distribution. In contrast, the distribution of the quiet periods is relatively less dispersed and difficult to describe by suitable probability functions.
引文
闻学泽,1999,中国大陆活动断裂的段破裂地震复发行为,地震学报,21(4):411~418。
易桂喜、闻学泽,2000,活动断裂带的整体地震复发行为及其与分段地震复发行为的关系,地震学报,22(5):527~537。
易桂喜、闻学泽、徐锡伟,2002,川滇地区若干活动断裂带整体的强地震复发特征研究,中国地震,18(3):267~276。
Bakun W.H.,McEvilly T.V.,1984,Recurrence models and Parkfield,California,earthquakes,J.Geophys.Res.,B89:3051~3058.
Fokaefs A.,Papadopoulos G.A.,2004,Historical earthquakesinthe region of Lefkadaisland,Ioniansea-estimation of magnitudesfromepicentral intensities,Bulletin of the Geological Society of Greece,36:1389~1395.
Goes S.D.B.,1996,Irregular recurrence of large earthquakes:an analysis of historic and paleoseismic catalogs,J.Geophys.Res.,101(B3):5739~5749.
Hagiwara Y.,1974,Probability of earthquake occurrence as obtainedfroma韦伯distribution analysis of crustal strain,Tectonophysics,23:313~318.
Jacoby,G.C.,Sheppard P.R.,Sieh K.E.,1988,Irregular recurrence of large earthquakes along the San Andreas fault:Evidencefromtrees,Science,241:196~199.
Kagan Y.Y.,Jackson D.D.,1991,Seismic gap hypothesis:Ten years after,J.Geophy.Res.,96(B13):21419~21431.
Karakostas V.G.,Papadimitriou E.E.,Papazachos C.B.,2004,Properties of the2003Lefkada,IonianIslands,Greece,earthquakeseismic sequence and seismicitytriggering,Bull.Seism.Soc.Am.,94(5):1976~1981.
Kiratzi A.A.,Langston C.A.,1991,Moment Tensor Inversion of the1983January17Kefallinia event of Ionian Islands(Greece),Geophysical Journal International,105:529~535.
Kokinou E.,Vafidis A.,2003,Seismic modeling of marine reflection data fromIonian Sea,Journal of the Balkan Geophysical Society,6(1):21~36.
Le Pichon X.,Chamot-Rooke N.,Lallemant S.,et al.,1995,Geodetic determination of the kinematics of central Greece withrespectto Europe.Implications for Eastern Mediterraneantectonics,J.Geophy.Res.,100:12675~12690.
Louvari,E.,Kiratzi,A.A.,Papazachos,B.C.,1999,The Cephalonia TransformFault and its extension to western Lefkada island(Greece),Tectonophysics,308:223~236.
Mercier,J.,Sorel,D.,Simeakis,K.,1987,Changes inthe state of stress in the overriding plate of a subduction zone:the AegeanArc fromthe Pliocene tothe Present,Annales Tectonicae,1:20~39.
Nishenko S.P.,Buland R.,1987,Ageneric recurrence interval distributionfor earthquake forecasting,Bull.Seism.Soc.Am.,77:1382~1399.
Papadimitriou E.E.,2002,Mode of strong earthquake recurrence in the central Ionian Islands(Greece):possible triggering due toCoulomb stress changes generated bythe occurrence of previous strong shocks,Bull.Seism.Soc.Am.,92(8):3293~3308.
Papadopoulos G.A.,Karastathis V.K.,Ganas A.,et al.,2003,The Lefkada,Ionian Sea(Greece),Shock(MW6·2)of14August2003:Evidence for the Characteristic Earthquake fromSeismicity and Ground Failures,Earth Planets Space,55(11):713~718.
Papazachos B.C.,1989,Atime-predictable model for earthquake generationin Greece,Bull.Seism.Soc.Am.,79:77~84.
Papazachos B.C.,1990,Seismicity of the Aegean and surrounding area,Tectonophysics,178:287~308.
Papazachos C.,Kiratzi A.,1996,A detailed study of the active crustal deformation in the Aegean and surrounding area,Tectonophysics,253:129~154.
Pavlides S.B.,Papadopoulos G.A,Ganas A.P.,et al.,2004,The14August2003Lefkada(Ionian Sea)earthquake.In Proceedingsof the5thInternational Symposiumon Eastern Mediterranean Geology,Thessaloniki,Greece,14~20April2004,T5~34.
Perkins D.M.,1987,Contagiousfault rupture,probabilistic hazard,and contagion observability.In Directionsin Palaeoseismology(A.J.Crone and E.M.Omdahl eds.),U.S.Geol.Surv.Open File Rept8720673,Denver:Federal center,428~439.
Rikitake T.,1975,Statistics of ultimate strain of the earth s crust and probability of earthquake occurrence,Tectonophysics,26:1~21.
Rikitake T.,1976,Recurrence of great earthquakes at subduction zones,Tectonophysics,35:335~362.
Rikitake T.,1982,Current Researchin Earthquake Prediction I,Reidel Publ.Co,Dordrecht,The Netherlands,383.
Rundle J.B.,Rundle P.B.,Donnellan A.,et al.,2005,Asimulation-based approach to forecasting the next great San Franciscoearthquake,Proc.Nat.Acad.Sci.,102:15363~15367.
Savage J.C.,CockerhamR.S.,1987,Quasi-periodic occurrence of earthquakes inthe1978~1986Bishop-Mammothlakes sequence,eastern California,Bull.Seism.Soc.Am.,77(4):1347~1358.
Scordilis E.M,Karakaisis G.F.,Karacostas B.G.,et al.,1985,Evidence for transformfaulting in the Ionian Sea-the Cephaloniaisland earthquake sequence of1983,Pure and Applied Geophysics,123(3):388~397.
Serpelloni E.,Anzidei M.,Baldi P.,et al.,2005,Crustal velocity and strain-rate fieldsinItaly and surroundingregions:newresultsfromthe analysis of permanent and non-permanent GPS networks,Geophys.J.Int.,161(3):861~880.
Shimazaki K.,Nakata T.,1980,Time-predictable recurrence model for large earthquakes,Geophys Res Lett,7:279~282.
Sorel D.,1976,Etude neotectonique damI arc Pgeen externe occidental:les iles ioniennes de Kephallinia et Zakinthos,et I Elideoccidentale.These3e cycle,Lab.de Gtol.Dyn.Interne.Bit.509.Centre Universitaire,91504Orsay,France.
Taymaz T.,Jackson J.,McKenzie D.,1991,Activetectonics of the northand central Aegean Sea,Geophys.J.Int.,106:433~490.
Utsu T.,1984,Estimation of parameters for recurrence models of earthquakes,Bull Earthquake Res lnst Univ Tokyo,59:53~66.
易桂喜、闻学泽,2000,活动断裂带的整体地震复发行为及其与分段地震复发行为的关系,地震学报,22(5):527~537。
易桂喜、闻学泽、徐锡伟,2002,川滇地区若干活动断裂带整体的强地震复发特征研究,中国地震,18(3):267~276。
Bakun W.H.,McEvilly T.V.,1984,Recurrence models and Parkfield,California,earthquakes,J.Geophys.Res.,B89:3051~3058.
Fokaefs A.,Papadopoulos G.A.,2004,Historical earthquakesinthe region of Lefkadaisland,Ioniansea-estimation of magnitudesfromepicentral intensities,Bulletin of the Geological Society of Greece,36:1389~1395.
Goes S.D.B.,1996,Irregular recurrence of large earthquakes:an analysis of historic and paleoseismic catalogs,J.Geophys.Res.,101(B3):5739~5749.
Hagiwara Y.,1974,Probability of earthquake occurrence as obtainedfroma韦伯distribution analysis of crustal strain,Tectonophysics,23:313~318.
Jacoby,G.C.,Sheppard P.R.,Sieh K.E.,1988,Irregular recurrence of large earthquakes along the San Andreas fault:Evidencefromtrees,Science,241:196~199.
Kagan Y.Y.,Jackson D.D.,1991,Seismic gap hypothesis:Ten years after,J.Geophy.Res.,96(B13):21419~21431.
Karakostas V.G.,Papadimitriou E.E.,Papazachos C.B.,2004,Properties of the2003Lefkada,IonianIslands,Greece,earthquakeseismic sequence and seismicitytriggering,Bull.Seism.Soc.Am.,94(5):1976~1981.
Kiratzi A.A.,Langston C.A.,1991,Moment Tensor Inversion of the1983January17Kefallinia event of Ionian Islands(Greece),Geophysical Journal International,105:529~535.
Kokinou E.,Vafidis A.,2003,Seismic modeling of marine reflection data fromIonian Sea,Journal of the Balkan Geophysical Society,6(1):21~36.
Le Pichon X.,Chamot-Rooke N.,Lallemant S.,et al.,1995,Geodetic determination of the kinematics of central Greece withrespectto Europe.Implications for Eastern Mediterraneantectonics,J.Geophy.Res.,100:12675~12690.
Louvari,E.,Kiratzi,A.A.,Papazachos,B.C.,1999,The Cephalonia TransformFault and its extension to western Lefkada island(Greece),Tectonophysics,308:223~236.
Mercier,J.,Sorel,D.,Simeakis,K.,1987,Changes inthe state of stress in the overriding plate of a subduction zone:the AegeanArc fromthe Pliocene tothe Present,Annales Tectonicae,1:20~39.
Nishenko S.P.,Buland R.,1987,Ageneric recurrence interval distributionfor earthquake forecasting,Bull.Seism.Soc.Am.,77:1382~1399.
Papadimitriou E.E.,2002,Mode of strong earthquake recurrence in the central Ionian Islands(Greece):possible triggering due toCoulomb stress changes generated bythe occurrence of previous strong shocks,Bull.Seism.Soc.Am.,92(8):3293~3308.
Papadopoulos G.A.,Karastathis V.K.,Ganas A.,et al.,2003,The Lefkada,Ionian Sea(Greece),Shock(MW6·2)of14August2003:Evidence for the Characteristic Earthquake fromSeismicity and Ground Failures,Earth Planets Space,55(11):713~718.
Papazachos B.C.,1989,Atime-predictable model for earthquake generationin Greece,Bull.Seism.Soc.Am.,79:77~84.
Papazachos B.C.,1990,Seismicity of the Aegean and surrounding area,Tectonophysics,178:287~308.
Papazachos C.,Kiratzi A.,1996,A detailed study of the active crustal deformation in the Aegean and surrounding area,Tectonophysics,253:129~154.
Pavlides S.B.,Papadopoulos G.A,Ganas A.P.,et al.,2004,The14August2003Lefkada(Ionian Sea)earthquake.In Proceedingsof the5thInternational Symposiumon Eastern Mediterranean Geology,Thessaloniki,Greece,14~20April2004,T5~34.
Perkins D.M.,1987,Contagiousfault rupture,probabilistic hazard,and contagion observability.In Directionsin Palaeoseismology(A.J.Crone and E.M.Omdahl eds.),U.S.Geol.Surv.Open File Rept8720673,Denver:Federal center,428~439.
Rikitake T.,1975,Statistics of ultimate strain of the earth s crust and probability of earthquake occurrence,Tectonophysics,26:1~21.
Rikitake T.,1976,Recurrence of great earthquakes at subduction zones,Tectonophysics,35:335~362.
Rikitake T.,1982,Current Researchin Earthquake Prediction I,Reidel Publ.Co,Dordrecht,The Netherlands,383.
Rundle J.B.,Rundle P.B.,Donnellan A.,et al.,2005,Asimulation-based approach to forecasting the next great San Franciscoearthquake,Proc.Nat.Acad.Sci.,102:15363~15367.
Savage J.C.,CockerhamR.S.,1987,Quasi-periodic occurrence of earthquakes inthe1978~1986Bishop-Mammothlakes sequence,eastern California,Bull.Seism.Soc.Am.,77(4):1347~1358.
Scordilis E.M,Karakaisis G.F.,Karacostas B.G.,et al.,1985,Evidence for transformfaulting in the Ionian Sea-the Cephaloniaisland earthquake sequence of1983,Pure and Applied Geophysics,123(3):388~397.
Serpelloni E.,Anzidei M.,Baldi P.,et al.,2005,Crustal velocity and strain-rate fieldsinItaly and surroundingregions:newresultsfromthe analysis of permanent and non-permanent GPS networks,Geophys.J.Int.,161(3):861~880.
Shimazaki K.,Nakata T.,1980,Time-predictable recurrence model for large earthquakes,Geophys Res Lett,7:279~282.
Sorel D.,1976,Etude neotectonique damI arc Pgeen externe occidental:les iles ioniennes de Kephallinia et Zakinthos,et I Elideoccidentale.These3e cycle,Lab.de Gtol.Dyn.Interne.Bit.509.Centre Universitaire,91504Orsay,France.
Taymaz T.,Jackson J.,McKenzie D.,1991,Activetectonics of the northand central Aegean Sea,Geophys.J.Int.,106:433~490.
Utsu T.,1984,Estimation of parameters for recurrence models of earthquakes,Bull Earthquake Res lnst Univ Tokyo,59:53~66.
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