大地震临震预测的研究进展
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摘要
短临地震预报尤其是临震预报 ,是当今国内外公认的世界性科学难点。文章综述了中国科学家从多学科交叉和内外因耦合的科学途径 ,已在大地震临震信号方面获得了次声波异常、地应力突跳、虎皮鹦鹉跳跃异常、地电和地磁异常、卫星红外异常、重力高频脉冲等临震预测的手段。笔者通过典型分析和普查对比各种地球物理因子和各种天文因子可能影响的整体研究 ,找到了大地震临震的主要触发因子———以月亮为主的非经典引潮力共振的异常叠加。在此基础上 ,采取内外因耦合的途径和方法 ,在 6a多来联合进行的临震预测内部试验表明 ,地震三要素均基本正确的成功率已达40 %。最后 ,还对临震预报问题提出了一些看法。
Short term and impending earthquake predictions are still well known hard challenges in the world This paper summarizes the study progress on the impending earthquake prediction by Chinese scientists from the method of multi subject intersection and the internal and external factors coupling Depending on very hard work during recent years, they get some important signals of predicting impending earthquakes, including the anomalies of infrasonic sound wave, crustal stress, behavior of budgerigars, general geoelectric, geomagnetic, satellite heat infrared and high frequency gravity pulsation The authors have discovered an important triggering factor of a violent earthquakes—the abnormal superimposition of tide generating force resonance from typical analysis and compared all astronomical and geophysical factors. Based on these, the examinational immediate prediction has been carried out by combining the tide generating force resonance with the impending signals for last six years The results show that the successful ratio of three basic elements of earthquake prediction accounts for 40% At last, the authors give some views on the impending violent earthquake problem
Short term and impending earthquake predictions are still well known hard challenges in the world This paper summarizes the study progress on the impending earthquake prediction by Chinese scientists from the method of multi subject intersection and the internal and external factors coupling Depending on very hard work during recent years, they get some important signals of predicting impending earthquakes, including the anomalies of infrasonic sound wave, crustal stress, behavior of budgerigars, general geoelectric, geomagnetic, satellite heat infrared and high frequency gravity pulsation The authors have discovered an important triggering factor of a violent earthquakes—the abnormal superimposition of tide generating force resonance from typical analysis and compared all astronomical and geophysical factors. Based on these, the examinational immediate prediction has been carried out by combining the tide generating force resonance with the impending signals for last six years The results show that the successful ratio of three basic elements of earthquake prediction accounts for 40% At last, the authors give some views on the impending violent earthquake problem
引文
徐好民 ,邓志辉 ,王煜 .随机共振新实例———卫星热红外温度异常点的发现及其意义 2 0 0 0
陈益惠等 重力仪高频信息与地震前兆 1987
[ 1] GELLERRJ,JACKSONDD ,KAGANYY ,etal Earthquakecan notbepredicted[J] Science ,1997,2 75 :16 16 16 17
[2 ] MAINI 地震预测 :简要结论 [J] 国际地震动态 ,1999,7:2 1 2 3 .
[3] 刘光鼎 ,陈运泰 ,陈 ,等 中国科学家谈地震预报 [A] “香山科学会议第 133次学术讨论会———特大自然灾害预测的新途径新方法”参考资料 [Z] 2 0 0 0
[4] 任振球 ,李均之 ,黄相宁 临震预报试验获得重要进展 [A] .地球物理与中国建设 [M] 北京 :地质出版社 ,2 0 0 0 2 92 2 94
[5 ] 香山科学会议第 133次学术讨论会筹备组 “香山科学会议第 133次学术讨论会———特大自然灾害预测的新途径新方法”[Z] .2 0 0 0
[6 ] Internationalworkshoponseismoelectromagnetics[Z] 2 0 0 0ofNAS DA September 192 2 ,2 0 0 0 TokyoJapan
[7] 李均之 临震预测试验及有关预测机理 [A] “香山科学会议第 133次学术讨论会———特大自然灾害预测的新途径新方法”报告 [R] 2 0 0 0
[8] 张国民 ,李宣瑚 我国地震分析预报的进展和展望 [A] 地球物理与中国建设 [M] 北京 :地质出版社 ,2 0 0 0 2 89 2 91
[ 9 ] 曾小苹 ,林云芳 ,李曾中 ,等 地磁学与灾害 [A] “香山科学会议第 133次学术讨论会———特大自然灾害预测的新途径新方法”报告 [R] 2 0 0 0
[10 ] 杨少峰 新疆和田强震前超低频异常电磁辐射致多台定位法[A] “香山科学会议第 133次学术讨论会———特大自然灾害预测的新途径新方法”报告 [R] 2 0 0 0
[11] 张铁铮 磁暴二倍法预报唐山 7 8级地震 [J] 西北地震学报 ,1998,2 0 :2
[12 ] 沈宗丕 ,徐道一 应用磁暴月相二倍法对应全球Ms≥ 7 5大地震的预报效果分析 [J] 西北地震学报 ,1996 ,18:3
[13] 强祖基 ,赁常恭 ,李玲芝 ,等 台湾特大地震的预测研究[A] .“香山科学会议第 133次学术讨论会———特大自然灾害预测的新途径新方法”报告 [R] 2 0 0 0
[14 ] UYEDAS ,NAGAOT ,ORIHARAY ,etal Geoelectricpotentialchanges:possibleprecursorstoearthquakesinJapan[J] PNAS ,2 0 0 0 ,97(9) :45 6 1 45 6 6
[15 ] LIUJY ,CHUOY ,PULINETSSA ,etal AstudyonTECpertur bationspriortotheRei Li,Chi ChiandChia Yiearthquakes[A] InternationalWorkshoponSeismo electromagnetics[C] 2 0 0 0ofNASDA September 192 2 ,2 0 0 0 TokyoJapan
[16 ] 任振球 引潮力共振对大地震临震的触发机理和预测检验[A] .“香山科学会议第 133次学术讨论会———特大自然灾害预测的新途径新方法”报告 [R] 2 0 0 0
[17] RENZhenqiu Triggeringeffectoftide generatingforcesresonance(TGFR)ongreatearthquakeandtheirimmediatepredictiontest[A] InternationalWorkshoponSeismo electromagnetics [C] . 2 0 0 0ofNASDA September 192 2 ,2 0 0 0 TokyoJapan
陈益惠等 重力仪高频信息与地震前兆 1987
[ 1] GELLERRJ,JACKSONDD ,KAGANYY ,etal Earthquakecan notbepredicted[J] Science ,1997,2 75 :16 16 16 17
[2 ] MAINI 地震预测 :简要结论 [J] 国际地震动态 ,1999,7:2 1 2 3 .
[3] 刘光鼎 ,陈运泰 ,陈 ,等 中国科学家谈地震预报 [A] “香山科学会议第 133次学术讨论会———特大自然灾害预测的新途径新方法”参考资料 [Z] 2 0 0 0
[4] 任振球 ,李均之 ,黄相宁 临震预报试验获得重要进展 [A] .地球物理与中国建设 [M] 北京 :地质出版社 ,2 0 0 0 2 92 2 94
[5 ] 香山科学会议第 133次学术讨论会筹备组 “香山科学会议第 133次学术讨论会———特大自然灾害预测的新途径新方法”[Z] .2 0 0 0
[6 ] Internationalworkshoponseismoelectromagnetics[Z] 2 0 0 0ofNAS DA September 192 2 ,2 0 0 0 TokyoJapan
[7] 李均之 临震预测试验及有关预测机理 [A] “香山科学会议第 133次学术讨论会———特大自然灾害预测的新途径新方法”报告 [R] 2 0 0 0
[8] 张国民 ,李宣瑚 我国地震分析预报的进展和展望 [A] 地球物理与中国建设 [M] 北京 :地质出版社 ,2 0 0 0 2 89 2 91
[ 9 ] 曾小苹 ,林云芳 ,李曾中 ,等 地磁学与灾害 [A] “香山科学会议第 133次学术讨论会———特大自然灾害预测的新途径新方法”报告 [R] 2 0 0 0
[10 ] 杨少峰 新疆和田强震前超低频异常电磁辐射致多台定位法[A] “香山科学会议第 133次学术讨论会———特大自然灾害预测的新途径新方法”报告 [R] 2 0 0 0
[11] 张铁铮 磁暴二倍法预报唐山 7 8级地震 [J] 西北地震学报 ,1998,2 0 :2
[12 ] 沈宗丕 ,徐道一 应用磁暴月相二倍法对应全球Ms≥ 7 5大地震的预报效果分析 [J] 西北地震学报 ,1996 ,18:3
[13] 强祖基 ,赁常恭 ,李玲芝 ,等 台湾特大地震的预测研究[A] .“香山科学会议第 133次学术讨论会———特大自然灾害预测的新途径新方法”报告 [R] 2 0 0 0
[14 ] UYEDAS ,NAGAOT ,ORIHARAY ,etal Geoelectricpotentialchanges:possibleprecursorstoearthquakesinJapan[J] PNAS ,2 0 0 0 ,97(9) :45 6 1 45 6 6
[15 ] LIUJY ,CHUOY ,PULINETSSA ,etal AstudyonTECpertur bationspriortotheRei Li,Chi ChiandChia Yiearthquakes[A] InternationalWorkshoponSeismo electromagnetics[C] 2 0 0 0ofNASDA September 192 2 ,2 0 0 0 TokyoJapan
[16 ] 任振球 引潮力共振对大地震临震的触发机理和预测检验[A] .“香山科学会议第 133次学术讨论会———特大自然灾害预测的新途径新方法”报告 [R] 2 0 0 0
[17] RENZhenqiu Triggeringeffectoftide generatingforcesresonance(TGFR)ongreatearthquakeandtheirimmediatepredictiontest[A] InternationalWorkshoponSeismo electromagnetics [C] . 2 0 0 0ofNASDA September 192 2 ,2 0 0 0 TokyoJapan
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