中国地震灾害人口死亡风险定量评估(英文)
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摘要
基于地震灾害风险形成机理,在建立人口震害脆弱性曲线与确定地震发生参数的基础上,本文利用评估模型对我国Ⅴ-Ⅺ地震烈度下各县域单元的人口死亡风险进行评估并分析其空间分布格局。主要研究内容有:(1)首次采用基于过去—现在—未来的多方面地震孕灾环境资料来处理地震发生的可能性。具体综合历史地震综合烈度、地震活动断裂带分布、地震动峰值加速度三方面来确定全国2355个县域单元的地震发生参数;(2)利用1990-2009年我国历史地震灾情数据,对地震烈度与人员死亡率之间进行线性拟合,建立适合我国地震灾害风险评估的震害人口死亡脆弱性曲线;(3)利用震害风险评估模型对我国各县域单元的人口死亡风险进行定量评估,并分析风险空间分布格局,彻底摸清Ⅴ-Ⅺ地震烈度下我国各县域单元的地震灾害人口死亡风险。研究表明:在不同地震烈度下,我国广大的东、中部地区面临更高的风险,而西部的人口死亡风险相对较低。高风险区域呈零星状分布于山东与江苏大部、安徽北部、黑龙江与吉林东部等人口分布较密集且孕灾环境发育完备的区域。而无风险区域在全国范围内呈斑块状散布,分布格局基本保持不变。
Based on the forming mechanism of seismic hazard risk, we established a seismic vulnerability curve on population and determined earthquake occurrence parameters. We then assessed the risk of seismic hazard mortality at the county level across China using the assessment model, and analyzed spatial patterns. We adopted past, present, and future disaster-breeding materials to assess the probability of earthquakes. In order to determine the earthquake parameters of 2355 counties accurately, we integrated history seismic intensities, seismic activity fault belts distributions and seismic peak ground acceleration. Based on data of seismic disasters from 1990 to 2009 in China, linear fitting between seismic intensities and mortalities was performed. And a vulnerability curve of seismic mortality, which was appropriate for seismic risk assessment, was established. Seismic mortality risks were assessed quantitatively at the county level using the model and the spatial patterns were analyzed. Seismic mortality risks of 2355 counties with intensities from Ⅴ to Ⅺ were analyzed thoroughly. This study indicates that under different seismic intensities, China’s eastern and central regions are generally confronted with higher risk than western regions. High-risk areas are scattered in Shandong and Jiangsu, northern Anhui and eastern Heilongjiang and Jilin, where populations are dense and the environment is conducive to disasters. Risk- free areas displayed patchy distributions nationwide, and patterns were mostly unchanged.
Based on the forming mechanism of seismic hazard risk, we established a seismic vulnerability curve on population and determined earthquake occurrence parameters. We then assessed the risk of seismic hazard mortality at the county level across China using the assessment model, and analyzed spatial patterns. We adopted past, present, and future disaster-breeding materials to assess the probability of earthquakes. In order to determine the earthquake parameters of 2355 counties accurately, we integrated history seismic intensities, seismic activity fault belts distributions and seismic peak ground acceleration. Based on data of seismic disasters from 1990 to 2009 in China, linear fitting between seismic intensities and mortalities was performed. And a vulnerability curve of seismic mortality, which was appropriate for seismic risk assessment, was established. Seismic mortality risks were assessed quantitatively at the county level using the model and the spatial patterns were analyzed. Seismic mortality risks of 2355 counties with intensities from Ⅴ to Ⅺ were analyzed thoroughly. This study indicates that under different seismic intensities, China’s eastern and central regions are generally confronted with higher risk than western regions. High-risk areas are scattered in Shandong and Jiangsu, northern Anhui and eastern Heilongjiang and Jilin, where populations are dense and the environment is conducive to disasters. Risk- free areas displayed patchy distributions nationwide, and patterns were mostly unchanged.
引文
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Chan L S, Chen Y, Chen Q. 1998. Assessment of global seismic loss based on macroeconomic indicators. Natural Hazards, 17(3): 269–283.
Chen G N. 1984. Definition, distinguishing and classification of active faults. South China Journal of Seismology, (41):33–41. (in Chinese)
Chen Q F, Chen Y, Chen L. 1997. Earthquake loss estimation by using Gross Domestic Product and population data. Acta Seismologica Sinica, 19(6): 83–92. (in Chinese)
Chen Y, Chen Q F, Chen L. 2001. Vulnerability analysis in earthquake loss estimate. Natural Hazards, 23(2): 349–364.
Chen Y, Liu J, Chen L, et al. 1998. Global seismic hazard assessment based on area source model and seismicity data. Natural Hazards, 17(3): 251–267.
Chen Y, Chen Q F, Chen L, et al. 1999. Global seismic hazard assessment. Chinese Science Bulletin, 44(1):21–25. (in Chinese)
Chen Y, Chen Q F, Chen L. 1999. Vulnerability analysis in earthquake loss estimate. Earthquake Research in China, 15(2):97–105. (in Chinese)
Cheng J Y, Yang Z. 1994. Correlation analysis of percentage of Collapsing houses and seismic intensity of Tangshan earthquake. Seismology and Geology, 16(3):283–288. (in Chinese)
Chinese Academy of Building Research. 2008. Buildings damage images of 2008 Wenchuan earthquake. Beijing: China Architecture & Building Press, 1–10. (in Chinese)
Compilation Committee of National Seismic Zoning Map. 2008. The first modifying sheet of Seismic ground motion parameter zonation map of China (GB18306-2001). Beijing: Standards Press of China, 1–3. (in Chinese)
Compilation Committee of National Seismic Zoning Map. 2010. The second modifying sheet of seismic ground motion parameter zonation map of China (GB18306-2001). Beijing: Standards Press of China, 1–3. (in Chinese)
Comprehensive Disaster Study Group of Ministry of Science and Technology, State Planning Commission and State Economic and Trade Commission of China. 2004. Atlas of major natural disasters and society responding to them in China. Guangdong: Guangdong Science and Technology Publishing House, 52–53.
Deng Q D, Zhang Y M, Huan W L, et al. 1978. The main features of seismic activity and seismic geology in China. Chinese Science Bulletin, (4):193–199. (in Chinese)
Deng Q D, Zheng P Z, Ran Y K, et al. 2002. Basic characteristics features of active tectonics of China. Science in China (series D), 32(12):1020–1030. (in Chinese)
Division of Monitoring and Prediction, China Earthquake Administration. 2001. Compilation on earthquake disaster loss assessment in Chinese Mainland (1996–2000). Beijing: Earthquake Publishing House, 1–390. (in Chinese)
Experts Group of Earthquake Resistance and Disaster Relief, National Disaster-reduction Committee and Ministry of Science and Technology. 2008. Comprehensive analysis and assessment of Wenchuan seismic disaster. Beijing: Science Press, 14–17. (in Chinese)
Fang S M, Zhang X K, Liu B J, et al. 2002. Geophysical methods for the exploration of urban active faults. Seismology and Geology, 24(4): 606–613. (in Chinese)
Gao Q H, Ma Z J, Zhang Y C, et al. 2007. Natural disaster assessment. Beijing: Meteorology Press, 30–39. (in Chinese)
Ge Q S, Zou M, Zhen J Y, et al. 2008. Integrated assessment of natural disaster risk in China. Beijing: Science Press, 1–6. (in Chinese)
Guzzetti F, A Carrara, M Cardinali, et al. 1999. Landslide hazard evaluation: A review of current techniques and their application in a multi-scale study, Central Italy. Geomorphology, 31(4):181–216.
Hu Y X. 2001. Publicizing and implementing material of Seismic ground motion parameter zonation map of China (GB18306-2001). Beijing: Standards Press of China, 1–113. (in Chinese)
Lantada N, J Irizarry, A H Barbat, et al. 2010. Seismic hazard and risk scenarios for Barcelona, Spain, using the Risk-UE vulnerability index method. Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering, (8):201–229.
Lee S, B Pradhan. 2007. Landslide hazard mapping at Selangor, Malaysia using frequency ratio and logistic regression models. Landslides, 4(1): 33–41.
Liao K, et al. 2000. National Physical Atlas. Beijing: SinoMaps Press, 29. (inChinese)
Nadim F, O Kjekstad. 2009. Assessment of global high-risk landslide disaster hotspots. Landslides, 213–221.
National Bureau of Statistics of China, Ministry of Civil Affairs of China.1995. Report of the damage caused by disaster in China (1949–1995).Beijing: China Statistics Press, 166–240. (in Chinese)
Pan M, Li T F. 2002. Hazard Geology. Beijing: Peking University Press, 38–57. (in Chinese)
Remondo J, J Bonachea, A Cendrero. 2005. A statistical approach to landsliderisk modelling at basin scale: from landslide susceptibility to quantitativerisk assessment. Landslides, 2(4): 321–328.
Restoration and Reconstruction Group of Yushu Earthquake. 2010. Restorationand reconstruction general planning after Yushu earthquake. Beijing:Standards Press of China, 1–42. (in Chinese)
Sarris A, C Loupasakis, P Soupios, et al. 2009. Earthquake vulnerability and seismic risk assessment of urban areas in high seismic regions: Application to Chania City, Crete Island, Greece. Natural Hazards, 1–18.
Shi P J, et al. 2006. Urban risk assessment research of major natural disasters in China. Advances in Earth Science, 21(2):170–177.
State Bureau of Quality and Technical Supervision. 2001. Seismic ground motion parameter zonation map of China (GB18306-2001). Beijing: Standards Press of China, 1–4. (in Chinese)
Steinbrugge K V, F E McGuire, A J Snow. 1969. Studies in seismicity and earthquake damage statistics. Appendix A, Washington, D C: U S Department of Commerce, Coast and Geodetic Survey, 15–37.
Sun L S, Jiang N Q. 1993. Research and discussion on predicting casualties caused by earthquakes in China. Recent Developments in World Seismology, (10):9–14. (in Chinese)
United Nations Disaster Relief Organization. Mitigating Natural Disasters: Phenomena, Effects and Options: A Manual for Policy makers and Planners. New York: United Nations, 1991, 1–164.
Wang J A, Shi P J, Wang P. 2006. Temporal-spatial pattern of natural disasters in China. Beijing: Science Press, 3–23. (in Chinese)
Wang Y, Shi P J, Wang J A. 2005. The housing loss assessment of rural villages caused by earthquake disaster in Yunnan province. Acta Seismologica Sinica, 27(5):551–560. (in Chinese)
Xu S X. 2003. Exploration of earthquake prediction. Recent Developments in World Seismolog, (2):1–6. (in Chinese)
Xu W, Wang J A, Shi P J, et al. 2004. Hazard degree assessment of urban earthquake disaster in China. Journal of Natural Disasters, 13(1):9–15. (in Chinese)
Zhang J Q, OKADA Norio, TATANO Hirokaz. 2006. Integrated natural disaster risk management: Comprehensive and integrated model and Chinese strategy choice. Journal of Natural Disasters, 15(1):29–37. (in Chinese)
Zhu L F, Yin K L, Zhang L, et al. 2002. Risk analysis system of geo-hazards by using GIS technique. Journal of Engineering Geology, 10(4):428–433. (in Chinese)
Zonno G, M Garcia-Fernandez, M J Jiménez et al. 2003. The SERGISAI procedure for seismic risk assessment. J. Seismol, 7(2): 255–277.
Carrara A, R J Pike. 2008. GIS technology and models for assessing landslide hazard and risk. Geomorphology, 94(3):257–260.
Chan L S, Chen Y, Chen Q. 1998. Assessment of global seismic loss based on macroeconomic indicators. Natural Hazards, 17(3): 269–283.
Chen G N. 1984. Definition, distinguishing and classification of active faults. South China Journal of Seismology, (41):33–41. (in Chinese)
Chen Q F, Chen Y, Chen L. 1997. Earthquake loss estimation by using Gross Domestic Product and population data. Acta Seismologica Sinica, 19(6): 83–92. (in Chinese)
Chen Y, Chen Q F, Chen L. 2001. Vulnerability analysis in earthquake loss estimate. Natural Hazards, 23(2): 349–364.
Chen Y, Liu J, Chen L, et al. 1998. Global seismic hazard assessment based on area source model and seismicity data. Natural Hazards, 17(3): 251–267.
Chen Y, Chen Q F, Chen L, et al. 1999. Global seismic hazard assessment. Chinese Science Bulletin, 44(1):21–25. (in Chinese)
Chen Y, Chen Q F, Chen L. 1999. Vulnerability analysis in earthquake loss estimate. Earthquake Research in China, 15(2):97–105. (in Chinese)
Cheng J Y, Yang Z. 1994. Correlation analysis of percentage of Collapsing houses and seismic intensity of Tangshan earthquake. Seismology and Geology, 16(3):283–288. (in Chinese)
Chinese Academy of Building Research. 2008. Buildings damage images of 2008 Wenchuan earthquake. Beijing: China Architecture & Building Press, 1–10. (in Chinese)
Compilation Committee of National Seismic Zoning Map. 2008. The first modifying sheet of Seismic ground motion parameter zonation map of China (GB18306-2001). Beijing: Standards Press of China, 1–3. (in Chinese)
Compilation Committee of National Seismic Zoning Map. 2010. The second modifying sheet of seismic ground motion parameter zonation map of China (GB18306-2001). Beijing: Standards Press of China, 1–3. (in Chinese)
Comprehensive Disaster Study Group of Ministry of Science and Technology, State Planning Commission and State Economic and Trade Commission of China. 2004. Atlas of major natural disasters and society responding to them in China. Guangdong: Guangdong Science and Technology Publishing House, 52–53.
Deng Q D, Zhang Y M, Huan W L, et al. 1978. The main features of seismic activity and seismic geology in China. Chinese Science Bulletin, (4):193–199. (in Chinese)
Deng Q D, Zheng P Z, Ran Y K, et al. 2002. Basic characteristics features of active tectonics of China. Science in China (series D), 32(12):1020–1030. (in Chinese)
Division of Monitoring and Prediction, China Earthquake Administration. 2001. Compilation on earthquake disaster loss assessment in Chinese Mainland (1996–2000). Beijing: Earthquake Publishing House, 1–390. (in Chinese)
Experts Group of Earthquake Resistance and Disaster Relief, National Disaster-reduction Committee and Ministry of Science and Technology. 2008. Comprehensive analysis and assessment of Wenchuan seismic disaster. Beijing: Science Press, 14–17. (in Chinese)
Fang S M, Zhang X K, Liu B J, et al. 2002. Geophysical methods for the exploration of urban active faults. Seismology and Geology, 24(4): 606–613. (in Chinese)
Gao Q H, Ma Z J, Zhang Y C, et al. 2007. Natural disaster assessment. Beijing: Meteorology Press, 30–39. (in Chinese)
Ge Q S, Zou M, Zhen J Y, et al. 2008. Integrated assessment of natural disaster risk in China. Beijing: Science Press, 1–6. (in Chinese)
Guzzetti F, A Carrara, M Cardinali, et al. 1999. Landslide hazard evaluation: A review of current techniques and their application in a multi-scale study, Central Italy. Geomorphology, 31(4):181–216.
Hu Y X. 2001. Publicizing and implementing material of Seismic ground motion parameter zonation map of China (GB18306-2001). Beijing: Standards Press of China, 1–113. (in Chinese)
Lantada N, J Irizarry, A H Barbat, et al. 2010. Seismic hazard and risk scenarios for Barcelona, Spain, using the Risk-UE vulnerability index method. Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering, (8):201–229.
Lee S, B Pradhan. 2007. Landslide hazard mapping at Selangor, Malaysia using frequency ratio and logistic regression models. Landslides, 4(1): 33–41.
Liao K, et al. 2000. National Physical Atlas. Beijing: SinoMaps Press, 29. (inChinese)
Nadim F, O Kjekstad. 2009. Assessment of global high-risk landslide disaster hotspots. Landslides, 213–221.
National Bureau of Statistics of China, Ministry of Civil Affairs of China.1995. Report of the damage caused by disaster in China (1949–1995).Beijing: China Statistics Press, 166–240. (in Chinese)
Pan M, Li T F. 2002. Hazard Geology. Beijing: Peking University Press, 38–57. (in Chinese)
Remondo J, J Bonachea, A Cendrero. 2005. A statistical approach to landsliderisk modelling at basin scale: from landslide susceptibility to quantitativerisk assessment. Landslides, 2(4): 321–328.
Restoration and Reconstruction Group of Yushu Earthquake. 2010. Restorationand reconstruction general planning after Yushu earthquake. Beijing:Standards Press of China, 1–42. (in Chinese)
Sarris A, C Loupasakis, P Soupios, et al. 2009. Earthquake vulnerability and seismic risk assessment of urban areas in high seismic regions: Application to Chania City, Crete Island, Greece. Natural Hazards, 1–18.
Shi P J, et al. 2006. Urban risk assessment research of major natural disasters in China. Advances in Earth Science, 21(2):170–177.
State Bureau of Quality and Technical Supervision. 2001. Seismic ground motion parameter zonation map of China (GB18306-2001). Beijing: Standards Press of China, 1–4. (in Chinese)
Steinbrugge K V, F E McGuire, A J Snow. 1969. Studies in seismicity and earthquake damage statistics. Appendix A, Washington, D C: U S Department of Commerce, Coast and Geodetic Survey, 15–37.
Sun L S, Jiang N Q. 1993. Research and discussion on predicting casualties caused by earthquakes in China. Recent Developments in World Seismology, (10):9–14. (in Chinese)
United Nations Disaster Relief Organization. Mitigating Natural Disasters: Phenomena, Effects and Options: A Manual for Policy makers and Planners. New York: United Nations, 1991, 1–164.
Wang J A, Shi P J, Wang P. 2006. Temporal-spatial pattern of natural disasters in China. Beijing: Science Press, 3–23. (in Chinese)
Wang Y, Shi P J, Wang J A. 2005. The housing loss assessment of rural villages caused by earthquake disaster in Yunnan province. Acta Seismologica Sinica, 27(5):551–560. (in Chinese)
Xu S X. 2003. Exploration of earthquake prediction. Recent Developments in World Seismolog, (2):1–6. (in Chinese)
Xu W, Wang J A, Shi P J, et al. 2004. Hazard degree assessment of urban earthquake disaster in China. Journal of Natural Disasters, 13(1):9–15. (in Chinese)
Zhang J Q, OKADA Norio, TATANO Hirokaz. 2006. Integrated natural disaster risk management: Comprehensive and integrated model and Chinese strategy choice. Journal of Natural Disasters, 15(1):29–37. (in Chinese)
Zhu L F, Yin K L, Zhang L, et al. 2002. Risk analysis system of geo-hazards by using GIS technique. Journal of Engineering Geology, 10(4):428–433. (in Chinese)
Zonno G, M Garcia-Fernandez, M J Jiménez et al. 2003. The SERGISAI procedure for seismic risk assessment. J. Seismol, 7(2): 255–277.
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