地震预警震级确定方法研究
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摘要
地震预警技术是减轻地震灾害损失的有效手段之一.地震预警系统中,地震震级计算是最重要也是最困难的部分之一.利用日本KiK-net台网和四川汶川余震共142次地震事件的记录,分别采用τc和Pd方法统计得到了地震预警震级的计算公式,震级计算的方差分别为0.62和0.56个震级单位.为消除震级计算过程中出现的震级饱和现象,作者拓展了Pd方法,提出了一套对位移幅值连续追踪测定的算法.当时间窗长度为10s时,采用该方法的震级计算方差仅为0.37个震级单位,充分满足地震预警系统的需求.同时,该方法也实现了信息的连续过渡,提高了对现有信息的利用率.最后,还对位移幅值Pd用于地震动峰值PGV的估计以及不同特征参数间的相容性等内容进行了讨论.
Earthquake early warning(EEW) is one of the effective ways to reduce earthquake damage.Earthquake magnitude estimation is the most important and also most difficult part in the whole EEW system.Based on 142 earthquake records from KiK-net in Japan and aftershock records of the great Wenchuan earthquake in Sichuan,China,we worked out the magnitude estimation relationships by using τc and Pd methods,with corresponding variances of 0.62 and 0.56,respectively.In order to remove the effect of magnitude saturation,we expanded the Pd method and proposed a new method of continuously calculating the peak displacement.When the time window is 10 s,the variance of magnitude estimation is reduced to 0.37,fully meeting the need of EEW systems.Meanwhile,our method realized the continuous transition of different information,and improved the utilization of seismic records.We also discussed the relation between Pd and PGV,and the compatibility between different characteristic parameters.
Earthquake early warning(EEW) is one of the effective ways to reduce earthquake damage.Earthquake magnitude estimation is the most important and also most difficult part in the whole EEW system.Based on 142 earthquake records from KiK-net in Japan and aftershock records of the great Wenchuan earthquake in Sichuan,China,we worked out the magnitude estimation relationships by using τc and Pd methods,with corresponding variances of 0.62 and 0.56,respectively.In order to remove the effect of magnitude saturation,we expanded the Pd method and proposed a new method of continuously calculating the peak displacement.When the time window is 10 s,the variance of magnitude estimation is reduced to 0.37,fully meeting the need of EEW systems.Meanwhile,our method realized the continuous transition of different information,and improved the utilization of seismic records.We also discussed the relation between Pd and PGV,and the compatibility between different characteristic parameters.
引文
金星,马强,李山有.2003.四种计算地震反应数值方法的比较研究[J].地震工程与工程振动,23(1):18--30.
马强,金星,李山有.2003.单自由度系统地震动力反应的实时计算方法[J].地震工程与工程振动,23(5):61--68.
马强.2008.地震预警技术研究与应用[D].哈尔滨:中国地震局工程力学研究所:124--134.
张红才,金星,李军,韦永祥,马强.2012.地震预警震级计算方法研究综述[J].地球物理学进展,27(2):464--474.
Allen R M,Kanamori H.2003.The potential for earthquake early warning in southern California[J].Science,300:786--789.
Allen R M,Brown H,Hellweg M,Kireev A,Neuhauser D.2007.Real-time test of the ElarmS earthquake early warning methodology[J].J Geophys Res,112(B08311),doi:10.1029/2008GL036366.
Ellsworth W L,Beroza G C.1995.Seismic evidence for an earthquake nucleation phase[J].Science,268:851--855.
Ellsworth W L,Heaton T.1994.Real-time analysis of earthquakes:Early-warning systems and rapid damageassessment[J].Sensors,(April):27--33.
Erdik M,Fahjan Y,Ozel O,Alcik H,Mert A,Gul M.2003.Istanbul earthquake rapid response and the early warningsystem[J].Bull Earthq Eng,1(1):157--163.
Hsiao N C,Wu Y M,Shin T C,Li Z,Teng T L.2009.Development of an earthquake early warning system inTaiwan[J].Geophys Res Lett,36:L00B02,doi:10.1029/2008GL036596.
Iannaccone G,Zollo A,Elia L.2010.A prototype system for earthquake early-warning and alert management in southernItaly[J].Bull Earthq Eng,8(5):1105--1129.
Iglesias A,Singh S K,Santoyo M A,Pacheco J,Ordaz M.2007.The seismic alert system for Mexico City:An evaluation of its performance and a strategy for its improvement[J].Bull Seism Soc Amer,97(5):1718--1729.
Iio Y.1992.Slow initial phase of the P-wave velocity pulse generated by micro-earthquakes[J].Geophys Res Lett,19(5):477--80.
Iio Y.1995.Observations of the slow initial phase generated by micro-earthquakes:Implications for earthquake nucleation and propagation[J].J Geophys Res,100(B8):15333--15349.
Kamigaichi O,Saito M,Doi K,Matsumori T,Tsukada S,Takeda K,Shimoyama T,Nakamura K,Kiyomoto M,Watanabe Y.2009.Earthquake early warning in Japan:Warning the general public and future prospects[J].SeismRes Lett,80(5):717--726.
Kanamori H,Hauksson E,Heaton T.1997.Real-time seismology and earthquake hazard mitigation[J].Nature,390:461--464.
Kanamori H.2005.Real-time seismology and earthquake damage mitigation[J].Annu Rev Earth Pl Sci,33:195--214.
Kilb D,Gomberg J.1999.The initial subevent of the1994Northridge,California,earthquake:Is earthquake sizepredictable?[J].J Seismol,3(4):409--420.
Lancieri M,Zollo A.2008.A Bayesian approach to the real-time estimation of magnitude from the early P and S wavedisplacement peaks[J].J Geophys Res,113:B12302,doi:10.1029/2007JB005386.
Mori J,Kanamori H.1996.Rupture initiations of microearthquakes in the1995Ridgecrest,California,sequence[J].Geophys Res Lett,23:2437--2440.
Murphy S,Nielsen S.2009.Estimating earthquake magnitude with early arrivals:A test using dynamic and kinematicmodels[J].Bull Seism Soc Amer,99(1):1--23.
Nakamura Y.1988.On the urgent earthquake detection and alarm system(UrEDAS)[C]∥Proceedings of Ninth WorldConference on Earthquake Engineering,7:673--678.
Nakatani M,Kaneshima S,Fukao Y.2000.Size dependent microearthquake initiation inferred from high-gain and lownoise observations at Nikko district,Japan[J].J Geophys Res,105(B12):28095--28109.
Olson E L,Allen R M.2005.The deterministic nature of earthquake rupture[J].Nature,438:212--215.
Rydelek P,Horiuchi S.2006.Is earthquake rupture deterministic?[J].Nature,442:E5--E6,doi:10.1038/nature04963.
Umeda Y.1990.High-amplitude seismic waves radiated from the bright spot of an earthquake[J].Tectonophysics,175(1-3):81--92.
Umeda Y.1992.The bright spot of an earthquake[J].Tectonophysics,211(1-4):13--22.
Wolfe C J.2006.On the properties of predominant-period estimators for earthquake early warning[J].Bull Seism SocAmer,96(5):1961--1965.
Wu Y M,Kanamori H.2005.Experiment on an onsite early warning method for the Taiwan early warning system[J].Bull Seism Soc Amer,95(1):347--353.
Wu Y M,Li Z.2006.Magnitude estimation using the first three seconds P-wave amplitude in earthquake earlywarning[J].Geophys Res Lett,33:L16312,doi:10.1029/2006GL026871.
Wu Y M,Kanamori H,Richard M A,Hauksson E.2007.Determination of earthquake early warning parameters,τcandPd,for southern California[J].Geophys J Int,170:711--717.
Wu Y M,Kanamori H.2008.Development of an earthquake early warning system using real-time strong motionsignals[J].Sensors,8(1):1--9.
Zollo A,Lancieri M,Nielsen S.2006.Earthquake magnitude estimation from peak amplitudes of very early seismicsignals on strong motion records[J].Geophys Res Lett,33:L23312,dio:10.1029/2006GL027795.
马强,金星,李山有.2003.单自由度系统地震动力反应的实时计算方法[J].地震工程与工程振动,23(5):61--68.
马强.2008.地震预警技术研究与应用[D].哈尔滨:中国地震局工程力学研究所:124--134.
张红才,金星,李军,韦永祥,马强.2012.地震预警震级计算方法研究综述[J].地球物理学进展,27(2):464--474.
Allen R M,Kanamori H.2003.The potential for earthquake early warning in southern California[J].Science,300:786--789.
Allen R M,Brown H,Hellweg M,Kireev A,Neuhauser D.2007.Real-time test of the ElarmS earthquake early warning methodology[J].J Geophys Res,112(B08311),doi:10.1029/2008GL036366.
Ellsworth W L,Beroza G C.1995.Seismic evidence for an earthquake nucleation phase[J].Science,268:851--855.
Ellsworth W L,Heaton T.1994.Real-time analysis of earthquakes:Early-warning systems and rapid damageassessment[J].Sensors,(April):27--33.
Erdik M,Fahjan Y,Ozel O,Alcik H,Mert A,Gul M.2003.Istanbul earthquake rapid response and the early warningsystem[J].Bull Earthq Eng,1(1):157--163.
Hsiao N C,Wu Y M,Shin T C,Li Z,Teng T L.2009.Development of an earthquake early warning system inTaiwan[J].Geophys Res Lett,36:L00B02,doi:10.1029/2008GL036596.
Iannaccone G,Zollo A,Elia L.2010.A prototype system for earthquake early-warning and alert management in southernItaly[J].Bull Earthq Eng,8(5):1105--1129.
Iglesias A,Singh S K,Santoyo M A,Pacheco J,Ordaz M.2007.The seismic alert system for Mexico City:An evaluation of its performance and a strategy for its improvement[J].Bull Seism Soc Amer,97(5):1718--1729.
Iio Y.1992.Slow initial phase of the P-wave velocity pulse generated by micro-earthquakes[J].Geophys Res Lett,19(5):477--80.
Iio Y.1995.Observations of the slow initial phase generated by micro-earthquakes:Implications for earthquake nucleation and propagation[J].J Geophys Res,100(B8):15333--15349.
Kamigaichi O,Saito M,Doi K,Matsumori T,Tsukada S,Takeda K,Shimoyama T,Nakamura K,Kiyomoto M,Watanabe Y.2009.Earthquake early warning in Japan:Warning the general public and future prospects[J].SeismRes Lett,80(5):717--726.
Kanamori H,Hauksson E,Heaton T.1997.Real-time seismology and earthquake hazard mitigation[J].Nature,390:461--464.
Kanamori H.2005.Real-time seismology and earthquake damage mitigation[J].Annu Rev Earth Pl Sci,33:195--214.
Kilb D,Gomberg J.1999.The initial subevent of the1994Northridge,California,earthquake:Is earthquake sizepredictable?[J].J Seismol,3(4):409--420.
Lancieri M,Zollo A.2008.A Bayesian approach to the real-time estimation of magnitude from the early P and S wavedisplacement peaks[J].J Geophys Res,113:B12302,doi:10.1029/2007JB005386.
Mori J,Kanamori H.1996.Rupture initiations of microearthquakes in the1995Ridgecrest,California,sequence[J].Geophys Res Lett,23:2437--2440.
Murphy S,Nielsen S.2009.Estimating earthquake magnitude with early arrivals:A test using dynamic and kinematicmodels[J].Bull Seism Soc Amer,99(1):1--23.
Nakamura Y.1988.On the urgent earthquake detection and alarm system(UrEDAS)[C]∥Proceedings of Ninth WorldConference on Earthquake Engineering,7:673--678.
Nakatani M,Kaneshima S,Fukao Y.2000.Size dependent microearthquake initiation inferred from high-gain and lownoise observations at Nikko district,Japan[J].J Geophys Res,105(B12):28095--28109.
Olson E L,Allen R M.2005.The deterministic nature of earthquake rupture[J].Nature,438:212--215.
Rydelek P,Horiuchi S.2006.Is earthquake rupture deterministic?[J].Nature,442:E5--E6,doi:10.1038/nature04963.
Umeda Y.1990.High-amplitude seismic waves radiated from the bright spot of an earthquake[J].Tectonophysics,175(1-3):81--92.
Umeda Y.1992.The bright spot of an earthquake[J].Tectonophysics,211(1-4):13--22.
Wolfe C J.2006.On the properties of predominant-period estimators for earthquake early warning[J].Bull Seism SocAmer,96(5):1961--1965.
Wu Y M,Kanamori H.2005.Experiment on an onsite early warning method for the Taiwan early warning system[J].Bull Seism Soc Amer,95(1):347--353.
Wu Y M,Li Z.2006.Magnitude estimation using the first three seconds P-wave amplitude in earthquake earlywarning[J].Geophys Res Lett,33:L16312,doi:10.1029/2006GL026871.
Wu Y M,Kanamori H,Richard M A,Hauksson E.2007.Determination of earthquake early warning parameters,τcandPd,for southern California[J].Geophys J Int,170:711--717.
Wu Y M,Kanamori H.2008.Development of an earthquake early warning system using real-time strong motionsignals[J].Sensors,8(1):1--9.
Zollo A,Lancieri M,Nielsen S.2006.Earthquake magnitude estimation from peak amplitudes of very early seismicsignals on strong motion records[J].Geophys Res Lett,33:L23312,dio:10.1029/2006GL027795.
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