活动断裂地震危险性的研究现状和展望
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摘要
本文综述了活动断裂地震危险性研究的历史、发展现状、存在的问题及发展方向。在活动断裂地震危险性研究中,重点论述了在概率分析研究阶段地震复发模式、概率模型、断裂间相互作用以及最大震级的评估等问题,指出未来活动断裂地震危险性分析研究的主要发展方向是多学科资料和研究手段、动力环境分析和力学模型的引入。
This paper reviewed the history, progress, problem and prospect on the seismic hazard assessment of active faults. Great attention was paid to the following four aspects: recurrence mode, probability model, interaction of faults and estimation of maximum magnitude. We believe that the development of multidisciplinary data, multidisciplinary methods, dynamic environment analysis and dynamic models is the most prospective direction of the future study on seismic hazard assessment of active faults.
This paper reviewed the history, progress, problem and prospect on the seismic hazard assessment of active faults. Great attention was paid to the following four aspects: recurrence mode, probability model, interaction of faults and estimation of maximum magnitude. We believe that the development of multidisciplinary data, multidisciplinary methods, dynamic environment analysis and dynamic models is the most prospective direction of the future study on seismic hazard assessment of active faults.
引文
陈培善,荣玉仿,白彤霞,2002.断裂力学地震破裂模式和应力降模式的比较及其应用.地球物理学报,45(增刊):175—188.
陈立春,冉勇康,2002.京西北盆岭构造区强震复发概率模型及地震潜势的定量评估.地震地质,24(192—99.
邓起东,1996.中国活动构造研究.地质论评,42(4):295—299.
邓起东,2002.城市活动断裂探测和地震危险性评价问题.地震地质,24(4):601—605.
邓起东,陈立春,冉勇康,2004.活动构造定量研究与应用.地学前缘,11(4):383—392.
丁国瑜,1992.有关活断层分段的一些问题.中国地震,8(2):1—10.
冉勇康,邓起东,1999.大地震重复特征与平均重复间隔的取值问题.地震地质,21(4):316—323.
冉勇康,陈立春,徐锡伟,2001.北京西北活动构造定量资料与未来强震地点的讨论.地震学报,23(5):502—513.
冉洪流,周本刚,2004a.布朗模型在北京西北地区的应用.地震学报,26(增刊):96—102.
冉洪流,2004b.海原断裂带M≥6.7地震概率及其震级分布.地震学报,26(6):609—615.
冉洪流,何宏林,2006.鲜水河断裂带北西段不同破裂源强震震级(M≥6.7)及复发间隔研究.地球物理学报,49(1):153—161.
王时标,1998.具有随机地震应力积累速率的地震发生概率模型.地球物理学报,41(增刊):281—289.
闻学泽,1995.活动断裂地震潜势的定量评估.北京:地震出版社,1—150.
闻学泽,1998.时间相依的活动断裂分段地震危险性评估及其问题.科学通报,43(14):1457—1466.
徐锡伟,2006.活动断层、地震灾害与减灾对策问题.震灾防御技术,1(1):7—14.
谢富仁,崔效锋等,2004.中国大陆及邻区现代构造应力场分区.地球物理学报,47(4):654—662.
张秋文,张培震,1999.地震中长期预测研究的进展和方向.地球科学进展,14(2):147—152.
张秋文,2002.中国大陆若干地震构造带的地震准周期丛集复发行为.大地测量与地球动力学,22(1):56—62.
张秋文,2004.断层间相互作用的触震与缓震效应定量评价.地球学报,25(4):483—488.
郑文俊等,2004.祁连山中东段强震复发概率模型及未来强震地点预测.西北地震学报,26(3):228—233.
周本刚,冉洪流,2002.工程活动断裂鉴定的时限标准讨论.工程地质学报,10(3):274—278.
周本刚,周庆,2005.对现今地壳变形资料在地震区划中应用的初步探讨.中国地震,21(2):155—164.
朱金芳,徐锡伟等,2005.福州市活断层探测与地震危险性评价.北京:科学出版社.
入倉孝次郎,三宅弘恵,2000.M8クラスの大地震の断層パラメーター一断層長さ,幅,変位，面積と地震モーメントの関係.京都大学防災研究所.
Boncio P.,Lavecchia G.and Pace B.,2004.Defining a model of3D seismogenic sources for seismic hazard assessment applications:the case of central Apennines(Italy).Journal of Seismology,8:407—425.
Bakun W.H.,McEvilly T.V.,1984.Recurrence models and Parkfield,California,earthquakes.J.Geophys.Res.,B89:3051—3058.
Beauval C.,S.Hainzl and F.Scherbaum,2005.Probabilistic seismic hazard in low seismicity regions considering non-Poissonian seismic occurrence.Geophysical Journal International,in press.
Cornnel C.A.,1968.Engineering seismic risk analysis.Bull.Seism.SOC.Am.,58:1583—1606.
Diane I.Doser,2003.Merging Historical and Recent Records of Seismicity to Better Define Earthquake Source Zones within the Anchorage Region,Final Technical Report,USGS,Award Number:01HQGR0159.
E.H.Field,2006.A Review of the Working-Groups on California Earthquake Probabilities.Submitted to BSSA.
Eleftheria Papadimitriou,Xueze Wen et al.,2004.Earthquake triggering along the Xianshuihe fault zone of western Sichuan,China.Pure and Applied Geophysics,161(8):1683—1707.
Ellsworth W.L.,1999.A physically based earthquake recurrence model for estimation of long-term earthquake probabilities.US Geol.Surv.Open-File Rept.:99—552.
Gomberg J.,M.E.Belardinelli,M.Cocco and P.Reasenberg,2005.Time-dependent earthquake probabilities.J.Geophys.Res.,110:B05S04.
Hardebeck J.L.,2004.Stress Triggering and Earthquake Probability Estimates.J.Geophys.Res.,109:B04310.
Harris R.A.,1998.Introduction to special section:stress triggers,stress shadows,and implications for seismic hazard.J.Geophys.Res.,103:24347—24358.
Kagan,Y.Y.,D.D.Jackson and Z.Liu,2005.Stress and earthquakes in southern California.J.Geophys.Res.,110:1850—2004.
Matthews M.V.,Ellsworth W.L.and Reasenberg P.A.,2002.A Brownian model for recurrent earthquakes.Bull.Seism.Soc.Amer.,92:2233—2250.
Mohammadioun B.and Serva L.,2001.Stress drop,slip type,earthquake magnitude,and seismic hazard.Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,91(4):694—707.
Nishenko S.P.and Buland R.,1987.A generic recurrence interval distribution for earthquake forecasting.Bull.Seism.Soc.Am.,77:1382—1399.
Ned Field,2003.Summary of Previous Working-Groups on California Earthquake Probabilities.Website:http://www.relm.org/tutorial_materials/WGCEP_Src_Models_v1.pdf.
Pace B.,Peruzza L.,Lavecchia G.and Boncio P.,2006.Layered seismogenic source model and probabilisticseismic-hazard analyses in Central Italy.Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,96(1):107—132.
Page M.T.and Carlson J.M.,2006.Methodologies for earthquake hazard assessment:model uncertainty and the WGCEP-2002forecast.Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,96(5):1624—1633.
Reid H.F.,1910.The Mechanics of the Earthquake,v.2of the California Earthquake of April18,1906.Report of the State Earthquake Investigation Commission:Carnegie Institution of Washington Publication.
Reid H.F.,1911.The elastic-rebound theory of earthquakes.Univ.Calif.Pub.Bull.Dept.of Geol.,6:413—444.
Robinson R.and Benites R.,1996.Synthetic seismicity models of multiple interacting faults.See:International Journal of Rock Mechanics and Mining Sciences and Geomechanics Abstracts,33(7):293A—293A(1).
Robinson R.and Benites R.,2001.Upgrading a synthetic seismicity model for more realistic fault rupturesGeophysical Research Letters,28(9):1843—1846.
Savage J.C.and Cockerham R.S.,1986.Quasi-periodic occurrence of earthquakes in the1978—1986Bishop-Mammoth lakes sequence,eastern California.Bull.Seism.Soc.Amer.,77(4):1347—1358.
Savage J.C.and Simpeon R.W.,1997.Surface strain accumulation and the seismic moment tensor.Bull.Seism.Soc.Am.,87:1345—1353.
Scholz C.H.,2002.The Mechanics of Earthquakes and Faulting,2nd Edn.Cambridge University Press,Cambridge.
Shimazaki K.and Nakata T.,1980.Time-predictable recurrence model for large earthquakes.Geophys.Res.Lett.,7:279—282.
Stein R.S.,Barka A.A.and Dieterich J.H.,1997.Progressive failure on the North Anatolian fault since1939by earthquake static stress triggering.Geophys.J.Int.,128:594—604.
Ward S.N.,1991.A synthetic seismicity model for the Middle America Trench.Journal of Geophysical Research,96:21433—21442.
Ward S.N.,Goes,and Saskia D.B.,1993.How regularly do earthquakes recur?A synthetic seismicity model for the San Andreas Fault.Geophysical Research Letters,20(19):2131—2134.
Ward S.N.,1994.A multidisciplinary approach to seismic hazard in southern California.Bull.Seism.Soc.Am.,84:1293—1309.
Ward S.N.,1996.A synthetic seismicity model for Southern California cycles,probability and hazard.J.G.Res.,l01:22393—22418.
Ward S.N.,1998.On the consistence of earthquake moment rates,geological fault data,and space geodetic strain:the United States.Geophys.J.Int.,134:172—186.
Ward S.N.,2000.San Francisco Bay Area earthquake simulations:a step toward a standard physical earthquake model.Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,90(2):370—386.
Wells D.L.and Coppersmith K.J.,1994.New empirical relationships among magnitude,rupture length,rupture width,rupture area,and surface displacement.Seismological Society of America Bulletin,84(4):974—1002.
Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities,1988.Probabilities of large earthquakes occurring in California on the San Andreas fault.U.S.Geol.Surv.Open-File Rep.:88—398.
Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities,1990.Probabilities of large earthquakes in the San Francisco Bay Region,California.U.S.Geol.Surv.Circ.:1053—1103.
Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities,1995.Seismic hazards in Southern California:probable earthquakes,1994—2024.Bull.Seis.Soc.Am.,85:379—439.
Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities,1999.Earthquake probabilities in the San Francisco Bay Region,2000—2030.A Summary of findings:U.S.Geological Survey Open-File Report:99—517.
Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities,2003.Earthquake probabilities in the San Francisco Bay Region,2002—2031.US Geol.Surv.Open-File Rept.:3—214.
陈立春,冉勇康,2002.京西北盆岭构造区强震复发概率模型及地震潜势的定量评估.地震地质,24(192—99.
邓起东,1996.中国活动构造研究.地质论评,42(4):295—299.
邓起东,2002.城市活动断裂探测和地震危险性评价问题.地震地质,24(4):601—605.
邓起东,陈立春,冉勇康,2004.活动构造定量研究与应用.地学前缘,11(4):383—392.
丁国瑜,1992.有关活断层分段的一些问题.中国地震,8(2):1—10.
冉勇康,邓起东,1999.大地震重复特征与平均重复间隔的取值问题.地震地质,21(4):316—323.
冉勇康,陈立春,徐锡伟,2001.北京西北活动构造定量资料与未来强震地点的讨论.地震学报,23(5):502—513.
冉洪流,周本刚,2004a.布朗模型在北京西北地区的应用.地震学报,26(增刊):96—102.
冉洪流,2004b.海原断裂带M≥6.7地震概率及其震级分布.地震学报,26(6):609—615.
冉洪流,何宏林,2006.鲜水河断裂带北西段不同破裂源强震震级(M≥6.7)及复发间隔研究.地球物理学报,49(1):153—161.
王时标,1998.具有随机地震应力积累速率的地震发生概率模型.地球物理学报,41(增刊):281—289.
闻学泽,1995.活动断裂地震潜势的定量评估.北京:地震出版社,1—150.
闻学泽,1998.时间相依的活动断裂分段地震危险性评估及其问题.科学通报,43(14):1457—1466.
徐锡伟,2006.活动断层、地震灾害与减灾对策问题.震灾防御技术,1(1):7—14.
谢富仁,崔效锋等,2004.中国大陆及邻区现代构造应力场分区.地球物理学报,47(4):654—662.
张秋文,张培震,1999.地震中长期预测研究的进展和方向.地球科学进展,14(2):147—152.
张秋文,2002.中国大陆若干地震构造带的地震准周期丛集复发行为.大地测量与地球动力学,22(1):56—62.
张秋文,2004.断层间相互作用的触震与缓震效应定量评价.地球学报,25(4):483—488.
郑文俊等,2004.祁连山中东段强震复发概率模型及未来强震地点预测.西北地震学报,26(3):228—233.
周本刚,冉洪流,2002.工程活动断裂鉴定的时限标准讨论.工程地质学报,10(3):274—278.
周本刚,周庆,2005.对现今地壳变形资料在地震区划中应用的初步探讨.中国地震,21(2):155—164.
朱金芳,徐锡伟等,2005.福州市活断层探测与地震危险性评价.北京:科学出版社.
入倉孝次郎,三宅弘恵,2000.M8クラスの大地震の断層パラメーター一断層長さ,幅,変位，面積と地震モーメントの関係.京都大学防災研究所.
Boncio P.,Lavecchia G.and Pace B.,2004.Defining a model of3D seismogenic sources for seismic hazard assessment applications:the case of central Apennines(Italy).Journal of Seismology,8:407—425.
Bakun W.H.,McEvilly T.V.,1984.Recurrence models and Parkfield,California,earthquakes.J.Geophys.Res.,B89:3051—3058.
Beauval C.,S.Hainzl and F.Scherbaum,2005.Probabilistic seismic hazard in low seismicity regions considering non-Poissonian seismic occurrence.Geophysical Journal International,in press.
Cornnel C.A.,1968.Engineering seismic risk analysis.Bull.Seism.SOC.Am.,58:1583—1606.
Diane I.Doser,2003.Merging Historical and Recent Records of Seismicity to Better Define Earthquake Source Zones within the Anchorage Region,Final Technical Report,USGS,Award Number:01HQGR0159.
E.H.Field,2006.A Review of the Working-Groups on California Earthquake Probabilities.Submitted to BSSA.
Eleftheria Papadimitriou,Xueze Wen et al.,2004.Earthquake triggering along the Xianshuihe fault zone of western Sichuan,China.Pure and Applied Geophysics,161(8):1683—1707.
Ellsworth W.L.,1999.A physically based earthquake recurrence model for estimation of long-term earthquake probabilities.US Geol.Surv.Open-File Rept.:99—552.
Gomberg J.,M.E.Belardinelli,M.Cocco and P.Reasenberg,2005.Time-dependent earthquake probabilities.J.Geophys.Res.,110:B05S04.
Hardebeck J.L.,2004.Stress Triggering and Earthquake Probability Estimates.J.Geophys.Res.,109:B04310.
Harris R.A.,1998.Introduction to special section:stress triggers,stress shadows,and implications for seismic hazard.J.Geophys.Res.,103:24347—24358.
Kagan,Y.Y.,D.D.Jackson and Z.Liu,2005.Stress and earthquakes in southern California.J.Geophys.Res.,110:1850—2004.
Matthews M.V.,Ellsworth W.L.and Reasenberg P.A.,2002.A Brownian model for recurrent earthquakes.Bull.Seism.Soc.Amer.,92:2233—2250.
Mohammadioun B.and Serva L.,2001.Stress drop,slip type,earthquake magnitude,and seismic hazard.Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,91(4):694—707.
Nishenko S.P.and Buland R.,1987.A generic recurrence interval distribution for earthquake forecasting.Bull.Seism.Soc.Am.,77:1382—1399.
Ned Field,2003.Summary of Previous Working-Groups on California Earthquake Probabilities.Website:http://www.relm.org/tutorial_materials/WGCEP_Src_Models_v1.pdf.
Pace B.,Peruzza L.,Lavecchia G.and Boncio P.,2006.Layered seismogenic source model and probabilisticseismic-hazard analyses in Central Italy.Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,96(1):107—132.
Page M.T.and Carlson J.M.,2006.Methodologies for earthquake hazard assessment:model uncertainty and the WGCEP-2002forecast.Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,96(5):1624—1633.
Reid H.F.,1910.The Mechanics of the Earthquake,v.2of the California Earthquake of April18,1906.Report of the State Earthquake Investigation Commission:Carnegie Institution of Washington Publication.
Reid H.F.,1911.The elastic-rebound theory of earthquakes.Univ.Calif.Pub.Bull.Dept.of Geol.,6:413—444.
Robinson R.and Benites R.,1996.Synthetic seismicity models of multiple interacting faults.See:International Journal of Rock Mechanics and Mining Sciences and Geomechanics Abstracts,33(7):293A—293A(1).
Robinson R.and Benites R.,2001.Upgrading a synthetic seismicity model for more realistic fault rupturesGeophysical Research Letters,28(9):1843—1846.
Savage J.C.and Cockerham R.S.,1986.Quasi-periodic occurrence of earthquakes in the1978—1986Bishop-Mammoth lakes sequence,eastern California.Bull.Seism.Soc.Amer.,77(4):1347—1358.
Savage J.C.and Simpeon R.W.,1997.Surface strain accumulation and the seismic moment tensor.Bull.Seism.Soc.Am.,87:1345—1353.
Scholz C.H.,2002.The Mechanics of Earthquakes and Faulting,2nd Edn.Cambridge University Press,Cambridge.
Shimazaki K.and Nakata T.,1980.Time-predictable recurrence model for large earthquakes.Geophys.Res.Lett.,7:279—282.
Stein R.S.,Barka A.A.and Dieterich J.H.,1997.Progressive failure on the North Anatolian fault since1939by earthquake static stress triggering.Geophys.J.Int.,128:594—604.
Ward S.N.,1991.A synthetic seismicity model for the Middle America Trench.Journal of Geophysical Research,96:21433—21442.
Ward S.N.,Goes,and Saskia D.B.,1993.How regularly do earthquakes recur?A synthetic seismicity model for the San Andreas Fault.Geophysical Research Letters,20(19):2131—2134.
Ward S.N.,1994.A multidisciplinary approach to seismic hazard in southern California.Bull.Seism.Soc.Am.,84:1293—1309.
Ward S.N.,1996.A synthetic seismicity model for Southern California cycles,probability and hazard.J.G.Res.,l01:22393—22418.
Ward S.N.,1998.On the consistence of earthquake moment rates,geological fault data,and space geodetic strain:the United States.Geophys.J.Int.,134:172—186.
Ward S.N.,2000.San Francisco Bay Area earthquake simulations:a step toward a standard physical earthquake model.Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,90(2):370—386.
Wells D.L.and Coppersmith K.J.,1994.New empirical relationships among magnitude,rupture length,rupture width,rupture area,and surface displacement.Seismological Society of America Bulletin,84(4):974—1002.
Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities,1988.Probabilities of large earthquakes occurring in California on the San Andreas fault.U.S.Geol.Surv.Open-File Rep.:88—398.
Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities,1990.Probabilities of large earthquakes in the San Francisco Bay Region,California.U.S.Geol.Surv.Circ.:1053—1103.
Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities,1995.Seismic hazards in Southern California:probable earthquakes,1994—2024.Bull.Seis.Soc.Am.,85:379—439.
Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities,1999.Earthquake probabilities in the San Francisco Bay Region,2000—2030.A Summary of findings:U.S.Geological Survey Open-File Report:99—517.
Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities,2003.Earthquake probabilities in the San Francisco Bay Region,2002—2031.US Geol.Surv.Open-File Rept.:3—214.
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