中国西部走滑型活动断裂的地震破裂参数与震级的经验关系
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摘要
为建立中国西部走滑型活动断裂的滑动速率、破裂参数与震级之间的经验关系,系统搜集和整理了中国西部地区30个大地震的震级以及发震断裂(段)的活动参数和破裂参数资料,包括断裂(段)长度、滑动速率、最大位错等及其不确定性。为考虑各种参数的不确定性,采用蒙特卡罗(Monte Carlo)方法,对各种参数进行最小二乘法回归分析,给出了这些参数之间的统计关系。与已有同类经验关系式的对比分析表明,文中给出的关系式,特别是考虑滑动速率的关系式,能够较好地反映各种参数之间的关系,更适用于活动断裂地震危险性分析。
In this paper,the relevant faulting and rupture-scale parameters of 30 large earthquakes were systematically collected and compiled,including fault length,slip rate,magnitude and their uncertainties.Considering the uncertainties of these parameters,10000 Monte Carlo realizations were generated consistent with the ranges of data,and for each a standard least-squares technique was used to find the coefficients of regressions.A comparative analysis with previous empirical relationships of the same type suggests that the empirical relationships developed in this research,especially the inclusion of fault slip rate in such regressions,are suitable very well for estimates of the seismic hazard on mapped active strike-slip faults in western China.
In this paper,the relevant faulting and rupture-scale parameters of 30 large earthquakes were systematically collected and compiled,including fault length,slip rate,magnitude and their uncertainties.Considering the uncertainties of these parameters,10000 Monte Carlo realizations were generated consistent with the ranges of data,and for each a standard least-squares technique was used to find the coefficients of regressions.A comparative analysis with previous empirical relationships of the same type suggests that the empirical relationships developed in this research,especially the inclusion of fault slip rate in such regressions,are suitable very well for estimates of the seismic hazard on mapped active strike-slip faults in western China.
引文
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闻学泽,徐锡伟,郑荣章,等.2003.甘孜-玉树断裂的平均滑动速率与近代大地震破裂[J].中国科学(D辑),33(增刊),199—208.WEN Xue-ze,XU Xi-wei,ZHENG Rong-zhang,et al.2003.Average slip-rate and recent large earthquake ruptures along the Ganze-Yushu Fault[J].Science in China(Ser D),33(suppl):199—208(in Chinese).
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刘小凤,刘百篪,吕太乙.1994.老虎山断裂研究[J].华南地震,14(4):9—16.LIU Xiao-feng,LIU Bai-chi,LTai-yi.1994.Research on Laohu Mountain active fault[J].South China Journal of Seismology,14(4):9—16(in Chinese).
龙锋,闻学泽,徐锡伟.2006.华北地区地震活动断层的震级-破裂长度、破裂面积的经验关系[J].地震地质,28(4):511—535.LONG Feng,WEN Xue-ze,XU Xi-wei.2006.Empirical relationships between magnitude and rupture length,and repture area,for seismogenic active faults in North China[J].Seismology and Geology,28(4):511—535(in Chinese).
青海省地震局,中国地震局地壳应力研究所.1999.东昆仑断裂带[M].北京:地震出版社.Earthquake Administration of Qinghai Province,Institute of Crustal Stress,China Earthquake Administration.1999.Ac-tive Faults in Eastern Kunlun Mountain[M].Seismological Press,Beijing(in Chinese).
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宋方敏,俞维贤.1998.走滑断裂带中挤压阶区内部剪切构造初探[J].地震地质,20(4):343—348.SONG Fang-min,YU Wei-xian.1998.Preliminary study of the inner shear structures in the compressional stepover of strike-slip faule zones[J].Seismology and Geology,20(4):343—348.(in Chinese).
孙鑫喆，徐锡伟，陈立春，等．2010.青海玉树MS7.1地震两个典型地点的地表破裂特征[J].地震地质,32(2):338—344.SUN Xin-zhe,XU Xi-wei,CHEN Li-chun,et al.2010.Characteristic of surface rupture of the MS7.1Yushu,Qinghai Province earthquake at two repsentative places[J].Seismology and Geology,32(2):338—344(in Chinese).
闻学泽,杜平山,龙德雄.2000.安宁河断裂带小相岭段古地震的新证据和最晚事件的年代[J].地震地质,22(1):1—8.WEN Xue-ze,DU Ping-shan,LONG De-xiong.2000.New evidence of paleoearthquake and date of the latest event on the Xiaoxiangling mountain segment of the Anninghe Fault zone[J].Seismology and Geology,22(1):1—8(in Chinese).
闻学泽,马胜利,雷兴林,等.2007.安宁河-则木河断裂带过渡段及其附近新发现的历史大地震破裂遗迹[J].地震地质,29(4):826—833.WEN Xue-ze,MA Sheng-li,LEI Xing-lin,et al.2007.Newly found surface rupture remains of large historical earth-quakes on and near the transition segment of the Anninghe and Zemuhe Fault zones,western Sichuan,China[J].Seismology and Geology,29(4):826—833(in Chinese).
闻学泽,徐锡伟,郑荣章,等.2003.甘孜-玉树断裂的平均滑动速率与近代大地震破裂[J].中国科学(D辑),33(增刊),199—208.WEN Xue-ze,XU Xi-wei,ZHENG Rong-zhang,et al.2003.Average slip-rate and recent large earthquake ruptures along the Ganze-Yushu Fault[J].Science in China(Ser D),33(suppl):199—208(in Chinese).
闻学泽.1995.活动断裂地震潜势的定量研究[M].北京:地震出版社.WEN Xue-ze.1995.Quantitative Estimates of Seismic Potential on Active Faults[M].Seismological Press,Beijing(in Chinese).
吴中海,吴珍汉,胡道功,等.2006.青藏铁路唐古拉山-拉萨段全新世控震断裂研究[J].地质通报,25(12):1387—1401.WU Zhong-hai,WU Zhen-han,HU Dao-gong,et al.2006.Holocene seismogenic faults along the Tanggula-Lhasa section of the Qinghai-Tibet Railway,China[J].Geological Bulletin of China,25(12):1387—1401(in Chinese).
新疆地震局.1985.富蕴地震断裂带[M].北京:地震出版社.Earthquake Administration of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region.1985.Fuyun Seismogenic Fault Zone[M].Seismo-logical Press,Beijing(in Chinese).
徐锡伟,陈文彬,于贵华,等.2002.2001年11月14日昆仑山库赛湖地震(MS8.1)地表破裂带的基本特征[J].地震地质,24(1):1—13.XU Xi-wei,CHEN Wen-bin,YU Gui-hua,et al.2002.Characteristic features of the surface ruptures of the Hoh Sai Hu(Kunlunshan)earthquake(MS8.1),northern Tibetan plateau,China[J].Seismology and Geology,24(1):1—13(in Chinese).
徐锡伟,闻学泽,于贵华,等.2003a.川西理塘断裂带平均滑动速率、地震破裂分段与复发特征[J].中国科学(D辑),33(6):540—551.XU Xi-wei,WEN Xue-ze,YU Gui-hua,et al.2003a.Average slip rate,earthquake rupturing segmentation and recur-rence behavior on the Litang Fault zone,western Sichuan Province,China[J].Science in China(Ser D),33(6):540—551(in Chinese).
徐锡伟,闻学泽,郑荣章,等.2003b.川滇地区活动块体最新构造变动样式及其动力来源[J].中国科学(D辑),33(增刊):151—162.XU Xi-wei,WEN Xue-ze,ZHENG Rong-zhang,et al.2003b.Pattern of latest tectonic motion and its dynamics for active blocks in Sichuan-Yunnan region,China[J].Science in China(Ser D),33(suppl):151—162(in Chinese).
俞维贤,柴天俊,侯学英.1991.澜沧7.6级地震形变带[J].地震地质,13(4):343—352.YU Wei-xian,CHAI Tian-jun,HOU Xue-ying.1991.Deformation zone of M=7.6Lancang earthquake[J].Seismology and Geology,13(4):343—352(in Chinese).
俞维贤,张建国,周光全,等.2005.2001年永胜地震的地表破裂与程海断裂[J].地震研究,28(2):125—128.YU Wei-xian,ZHANG Jian-guo,ZHOU Guang-quan,et al.2005.Surface rupture of the2001Yongsheng M6earthquake and Chenghai Fault[J].Journal of Seismological Research,28(2):125—128(in Chinese).
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