哈尔滨市主要断裂未来地震危险性评价
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摘要
哈尔滨市目标区内主要断裂断错地表的最新活动时代为第四纪早期,晚更新世以来无断错地表的活动迹象。通过对城市活动断层地震危险性评价的技术思路、哈尔滨市工作区的地震地质环境与潜在震源区划分、目标区主要断裂活动特征的综合分析,确定了目标区内3条主要断裂未来可能发生地震的最大震级,并以兴安-东蒙活动地块与工作区作为分析的两种范围尺度,在适当调整工程地震学地震危险性概率分析方法的基础上,综合估算了目标区和目标区内单条断裂未来100年的发震概率。结果表明:哈尔滨市目标区主要断裂未来发生4.0级上破坏性地震的可能性极小,可能地震的最大震级为MS5.5。
In the target area of active fault surveying around Harbin City,the latest rupturing ages of the main faults are all early or middle Pleistocene,and there are no evidences to indicate that rupture has occurred on these faults since late Pleistocene.By synthetical analysis of technical route of earthquake risk assessment of urban active fault,seismic environment and division of potential seismic source zone in research area around Harbin City,and activity characteristics of the main faults in target area,the maximum magnitude of probable future earthquake on these main faults are forecasted in this paper.And then probabilities of middle-strong earthquake occurring in the next 100 years are calculated for both the whole target area and its three single faults according to the two scales of Xin'an-Dongmeng active block and research area on the basis of adjusting properly the probability technique of earthquake risk analysis for engineering seismology.In conclusion,the probable future maximum magnitude on the main faults in target area are all M_ S 5.5,but there is bally low probability of damaging earthquake(M_ S>4)occurring on them.No doubt,there are still a few uncertainty and unreliability to these results because of the hypothesis for calculation and deficient samples for statistic.However,in terms of current level,the technique of earthquake risk assessment in this paper is more suitable to use for such still areas as Harbin,where the tectonic activity is quite weak since late Quaternary.And furthermore,it can provide at a certain extent tutor or reference for surveying and prospecting of active fault in other cities.
In the target area of active fault surveying around Harbin City,the latest rupturing ages of the main faults are all early or middle Pleistocene,and there are no evidences to indicate that rupture has occurred on these faults since late Pleistocene.By synthetical analysis of technical route of earthquake risk assessment of urban active fault,seismic environment and division of potential seismic source zone in research area around Harbin City,and activity characteristics of the main faults in target area,the maximum magnitude of probable future earthquake on these main faults are forecasted in this paper.And then probabilities of middle-strong earthquake occurring in the next 100 years are calculated for both the whole target area and its three single faults according to the two scales of Xin'an-Dongmeng active block and research area on the basis of adjusting properly the probability technique of earthquake risk analysis for engineering seismology.In conclusion,the probable future maximum magnitude on the main faults in target area are all M_ S 5.5,but there is bally low probability of damaging earthquake(M_ S>4)occurring on them.No doubt,there are still a few uncertainty and unreliability to these results because of the hypothesis for calculation and deficient samples for statistic.However,in terms of current level,the technique of earthquake risk assessment in this paper is more suitable to use for such still areas as Harbin,where the tectonic activity is quite weak since late Quaternary.And furthermore,it can provide at a certain extent tutor or reference for surveying and prospecting of active fault in other cities.
引文
[1]中国地震局震害防御司预报管理处,1999,中国强地震目录(公元前23世纪—公元1999年)(内部数字资料)。
[1]中国地震局地质研究所,中国石油天然气股份有限公司中俄原油管道项目部,2002,俄中原油管道满洲里—大庆段工程场地地震安全性评价报告。
[1]同676页[1]。
邓起东,于贵华,叶文华.1992.地震地表破裂参数与震级关系的研究[A].见:国家地震局地质研究所编.活动断裂研究(2).北京:地震出版社.247—264.DENG Qi-dong,YU Gui-hua,YE Wen-hua.1992.Relationship between earthquake magnitude and parameters ofsurface ruptures associated with historical earthquakes[A].In:Institute of Geology,SSB(ed).Research onActive Fault(2).Seismological Press,Beijing.247—264(in Chinese).
邓起东,陈立春,冉勇康.2004.活动构造定量研究与应用[J].地学前缘,11(4):383—392.DENG Qi-dong,CHEN Li-chun,RAN Yong-kang.2004.Quantitative studies and applications of active tectonics[J].Earth Science Frontiers,11(4):383—392(in Chinese).
杜国林,于露,韦庆海.2000.绥化及周边地区地震活动特征研究[J].东北地震研究,16(4):23—28.DU Guo-lin,YULu,WEI Qing-hai.2000.Study of seismic activity characteristics in Suihua area and its surroundings[J].Seismological Research of Northeast China,16(4):23—28(in Chinese).
周本刚,高名修.1992.松辽盆地几次中强震的构造条件探讨[J].地震地质,14(2):145—150.ZHOU Ben-gang,GAO Ming-xiu.1992.The structural analysis of several moderate-strong earthquakes in the Songliaobasin[J].Seismology and Geology,14(2):145—150(in Chinese).
国家地震局.1990.中国地震烈度区划图(1990)概论[M].北京:地震出版社.State Seismological Bureau.1990.Generality of the map of China earthquake intensity zonation(1990)[M].Seismological Press,Beijing(in Chinese).
胡聿贤.1999.地震安全性评价技术教程[M].北京:地震出版社.HU Yu-xian.1999.Tutorial of seismic safety evaluation[M].Seismological Press,Beijing(in Chinese).
李传友,汪一鹏.1999.吉林省松原地区1119年643级地震的发震构造条件[J].中国地震,15(3):237—246.LI Chuan-you,WANG Yi-peng.1999.Causative tectonic conditions of the historic earthquake(M=643)in1119inSongyuan area[J].Earthquake Research in China,15(3):237—246(in Chinese).
闻学泽.1995.活动断裂地震潜势的定量评估[M].北京:地震出版社.WEN Xue-ze.1995.Quantitative estimates of seismic potential on active faults[M].Seismological Press,Beijing(inChinese).
闻学泽,徐锡伟.2003.福州盆地的地震环境与主要断层潜在地震的最大震级评价[J].地震地质,25(4):499—524.WEN Xue-ze,XU Xi-wei.2003.Seismogenic environment and assessment of the maximum magnitude of potentialearthquakes on the main faults in Fuzhou basin[J].Seismology and Geology,25(4):499—524(in Chinese).
闻学泽.2005.福州盆地主要断裂的地震危险性评价[A].见:朱金芳等编.福州市活断层探测与地震危险性评价.北京:科学出版社.WEN Xue-ze.2005.Earthquake risk assessment on the main faults in Fuzhou basin[A].In:ZHU Jin-fanget al(eds).Survey and earthquake risk assessment on active fault in Fuzhou.Science Press,Beijing(in Chinese).
张培震,邓起东,张国民,等.2003.中国大陆的强震活动与活动地块[J].中国科学(D辑),33(增刊):12—20.ZHANG Pei-zhen,DENG Qi-dong,ZHANG Guo-min,et al.2003.Active tectonic blocks and strong earthquakes inthe continent of China[J].Science in China(Ser D),33(suppl):12—20(in Chinese).
中国地震局.2005.中国地震活动断层探测技术系统技术规程[M].北京:地震出版社.China Earthquake Administration.2005.Stipulation on technical system for China earthquake active fault surveying[M].Seismological Press,Beijing(in Chinese).
Chen P,Chen H.1989.Scaling lawand its applications to earthquake statistical relations[J].Tectonophysics,166:53—72.
Hanks TC,Kanamori H.1979.A moment magnitude scale[J].J Geophy Res,84:2348—2350.
Wells D L,Coppersmith K J.1994.New empirical relationships among magnitude,rupture length,rupture width,rupture area,and surface displacement[J].B S S A,84:974—1002.
[1]中国地震局地质研究所,中国石油天然气股份有限公司中俄原油管道项目部,2002,俄中原油管道满洲里—大庆段工程场地地震安全性评价报告。
[1]同676页[1]。
邓起东,于贵华,叶文华.1992.地震地表破裂参数与震级关系的研究[A].见:国家地震局地质研究所编.活动断裂研究(2).北京:地震出版社.247—264.DENG Qi-dong,YU Gui-hua,YE Wen-hua.1992.Relationship between earthquake magnitude and parameters ofsurface ruptures associated with historical earthquakes[A].In:Institute of Geology,SSB(ed).Research onActive Fault(2).Seismological Press,Beijing.247—264(in Chinese).
邓起东,陈立春,冉勇康.2004.活动构造定量研究与应用[J].地学前缘,11(4):383—392.DENG Qi-dong,CHEN Li-chun,RAN Yong-kang.2004.Quantitative studies and applications of active tectonics[J].Earth Science Frontiers,11(4):383—392(in Chinese).
杜国林,于露,韦庆海.2000.绥化及周边地区地震活动特征研究[J].东北地震研究,16(4):23—28.DU Guo-lin,YULu,WEI Qing-hai.2000.Study of seismic activity characteristics in Suihua area and its surroundings[J].Seismological Research of Northeast China,16(4):23—28(in Chinese).
周本刚,高名修.1992.松辽盆地几次中强震的构造条件探讨[J].地震地质,14(2):145—150.ZHOU Ben-gang,GAO Ming-xiu.1992.The structural analysis of several moderate-strong earthquakes in the Songliaobasin[J].Seismology and Geology,14(2):145—150(in Chinese).
国家地震局.1990.中国地震烈度区划图(1990)概论[M].北京:地震出版社.State Seismological Bureau.1990.Generality of the map of China earthquake intensity zonation(1990)[M].Seismological Press,Beijing(in Chinese).
胡聿贤.1999.地震安全性评价技术教程[M].北京:地震出版社.HU Yu-xian.1999.Tutorial of seismic safety evaluation[M].Seismological Press,Beijing(in Chinese).
李传友,汪一鹏.1999.吉林省松原地区1119年643级地震的发震构造条件[J].中国地震,15(3):237—246.LI Chuan-you,WANG Yi-peng.1999.Causative tectonic conditions of the historic earthquake(M=643)in1119inSongyuan area[J].Earthquake Research in China,15(3):237—246(in Chinese).
闻学泽.1995.活动断裂地震潜势的定量评估[M].北京:地震出版社.WEN Xue-ze.1995.Quantitative estimates of seismic potential on active faults[M].Seismological Press,Beijing(inChinese).
闻学泽,徐锡伟.2003.福州盆地的地震环境与主要断层潜在地震的最大震级评价[J].地震地质,25(4):499—524.WEN Xue-ze,XU Xi-wei.2003.Seismogenic environment and assessment of the maximum magnitude of potentialearthquakes on the main faults in Fuzhou basin[J].Seismology and Geology,25(4):499—524(in Chinese).
闻学泽.2005.福州盆地主要断裂的地震危险性评价[A].见:朱金芳等编.福州市活断层探测与地震危险性评价.北京:科学出版社.WEN Xue-ze.2005.Earthquake risk assessment on the main faults in Fuzhou basin[A].In:ZHU Jin-fanget al(eds).Survey and earthquake risk assessment on active fault in Fuzhou.Science Press,Beijing(in Chinese).
张培震,邓起东,张国民,等.2003.中国大陆的强震活动与活动地块[J].中国科学(D辑),33(增刊):12—20.ZHANG Pei-zhen,DENG Qi-dong,ZHANG Guo-min,et al.2003.Active tectonic blocks and strong earthquakes inthe continent of China[J].Science in China(Ser D),33(suppl):12—20(in Chinese).
中国地震局.2005.中国地震活动断层探测技术系统技术规程[M].北京:地震出版社.China Earthquake Administration.2005.Stipulation on technical system for China earthquake active fault surveying[M].Seismological Press,Beijing(in Chinese).
Chen P,Chen H.1989.Scaling lawand its applications to earthquake statistical relations[J].Tectonophysics,166:53—72.
Hanks TC,Kanamori H.1979.A moment magnitude scale[J].J Geophy Res,84:2348—2350.
Wells D L,Coppersmith K J.1994.New empirical relationships among magnitude,rupture length,rupture width,rupture area,and surface displacement[J].B S S A,84:974—1002.
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