应力释放模型的改进及其在研究台湾地区地震预测问题中的应用

英文篇名：IMPROVED STRESS RELEASE MODEL: APPLICATION TO EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION IN TAIWAN AREA
中文刊名：地震学报
英文刊名：Acta Seismologica Sinica
作者：朱守彪 ; 石耀霖
英文作者：Zhu Shoubiao 1 ; 2) Shi Yaolin 1) 1) Graduate School ; Chinese Academy of Sciences ; Beijing 100039 ; China 2) College of Disaster Prevention Technique ; Beijing 101601 ; China
中文关键词：改进应力释放模型 ; 条件概率强度 ; 泊松模型 ; 台湾地区
英文关键词：improved stress release model ; conditional probability intensity ; Poisson model ; Taiwan area
出版日期：2002-04-15
机构：中国科学院研究生院 ,中国科学院研究生院中国北京100039,中国北京101601防灾技术高等专科学校,中国北京100039
年：2002
期：02
出版单位：地震学报

摘要

应力释放模型过去主要用于研究大范围历史大地震活动规律 .本文对应力释放模型进行了改进 ,对其能否运用于区域更小、时段更短、震级更低的情况进行了探讨 ;以台湾地区近百年 6级以上地震为例的研究结果表明 ,应力释放模型仍然适用 .在回溯性的地震预测检验中 ,用改进的应力释放模型计算出台湾地区地震发生的条件概率强度 ,并用其预测 6级以上地震的发震时刻 .结果表明 ,其预测精度优于泊松模型
Stress release model used to be applied to seismicity study of large historical earthquakes in a space of large scale. In this paper, we improve the stress release model, and discuss whether the stress release model is still applicable or not in the case of smaller spatio-temporal scale and weaker earthquakes. As an example of testing the model, we have analyzed the M≥6 earthquakes in recent about 100 years. The result shows that the stress release model is still applicable. The earthquake conditional probability intensity in Taiwan area is calculated with the improved stress release model. We see that accuracy of earthquake occurrence time predicted by the improved stress release model is higher than that by Poisson model in the test of retrospect earthquake prediction.

引文

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