城市防震减灾能力评价中的可接受风险研究
|
摘要
搜集国内外破坏性地震的人员伤亡数据及1985年以来国内其他自然灾害(如水灾、台风等)和人为灾害(火灾、交通事故等)引起的非正常死亡情况的相关资料,结合专家调查问卷的统计结果,采用可接受风险研究中的F-N曲线和ALARP准则,统计分析了各类灾害的可接受生命风险指标,从而建议了地震人员伤亡的风险值。利用该风险标准作为评价城市防震减灾能力的控制性指标,指导决策者对公众生命风险进行合理的选择,以获得良好的社会效果。结果表明,风险分析的定量表示方法可以应用到城市防震减灾能力的评估中,并可以作为评价城市防震减灾能力强弱的判断标准。
The number of the fatalities caused by various types of disasters are collected,which includes the number of the fatalities caused by the destructive earthquake at home and abroad,and the number of the fatalities caused by the natural disasters(floods,typhoons,etc.) and man-made disasters(fires,traffic accidents,etc.) have also been included since 1985.The paper mainly defines the acceptable risk levels according to risk-prevention measures,which are included failure probability and the consequences of failure measure,such as human casualty and economic loss,etc.It has discussed the methods to use ALARP principle and F-N curve combined with the statistical result of the experts' questionnaires so as to determine the acceptable risk and their applications in the urban capacity of earthquake disaster prevention and reduction.Excellent social benefits are achieved by using the value of acceptable risk levels as a control index for evaluation of the urban capacity of earthquake disaster prevention and reduction.The results show that urban acceptable level of earthquake risk is the evaluation criterion of the urban capacity of earthquake disaster prevention and reduction and the basis for decision-making in risk management.
The number of the fatalities caused by various types of disasters are collected,which includes the number of the fatalities caused by the destructive earthquake at home and abroad,and the number of the fatalities caused by the natural disasters(floods,typhoons,etc.) and man-made disasters(fires,traffic accidents,etc.) have also been included since 1985.The paper mainly defines the acceptable risk levels according to risk-prevention measures,which are included failure probability and the consequences of failure measure,such as human casualty and economic loss,etc.It has discussed the methods to use ALARP principle and F-N curve combined with the statistical result of the experts' questionnaires so as to determine the acceptable risk and their applications in the urban capacity of earthquake disaster prevention and reduction.Excellent social benefits are achieved by using the value of acceptable risk levels as a control index for evaluation of the urban capacity of earthquake disaster prevention and reduction.The results show that urban acceptable level of earthquake risk is the evaluation criterion of the urban capacity of earthquake disaster prevention and reduction and the basis for decision-making in risk management.
引文
[1]DEFRA.Flood and Reservoir Safety Integration[R].Final report.http://www.defra.gov.uk/environment/water,August,2002.
[2]Faber MH,Stewart MG.Risk assessment for civil engineering facilities:critical overviewand discussion[J].Reliability Engineering and SystemSafety,2003,80(2):173-184.
[3]肖义,郭生练,熊立华,等.大坝安全评价的可接受风险究与评述[J].安全与环境学报,2005,5(3):90-94.
[4]Yang B,Wang R,An Z.Risk analysis of flood relief for single reservoir[J].Hydrology,1999,(4):5-12.
[5]谢礼立,张晓志,周雍年.论抗震设防标准[J].地震工程与工程震动,1996,16(1):1-17.
[6]马玉宏.基于性态的抗震设防标准研究[D].哈尔滨:中国地震局研工程力学研究所,2000.
[7]Jonkman S N,Van Gelder P HAJ M,Vrijling J K.An overviewof quantitative risk measures for loss of life and economic damage[J].Journal ofhazardous Material,2003,99(1):1-30.
[8]Vrijling J K,Van Hengel W.A framework for risk evaluation[J].Journal of Hazardous Material,1995,43(3):245-261.
[9]丁厚成,万成略.风险评价标准值初探[J].工业安全与环保,2004,30(10):45-47.
[10]刘茂.城镇公共安全规划编制要点和规划目标的研究[J].江苏城市规划,2005,(4):27-32.
[11]李冬升.基于可靠度理论的边坡风险评价研究[D].重庆:重庆大学,2006.
[12]Fell R.Some landslide risk zoning schemes in use in easter Australia and their application[C]//Sixth Australian NewZealand Conference on Ge-omechanics,Christchurch,1992:505-512.
[2]Faber MH,Stewart MG.Risk assessment for civil engineering facilities:critical overviewand discussion[J].Reliability Engineering and SystemSafety,2003,80(2):173-184.
[3]肖义,郭生练,熊立华,等.大坝安全评价的可接受风险究与评述[J].安全与环境学报,2005,5(3):90-94.
[4]Yang B,Wang R,An Z.Risk analysis of flood relief for single reservoir[J].Hydrology,1999,(4):5-12.
[5]谢礼立,张晓志,周雍年.论抗震设防标准[J].地震工程与工程震动,1996,16(1):1-17.
[6]马玉宏.基于性态的抗震设防标准研究[D].哈尔滨:中国地震局研工程力学研究所,2000.
[7]Jonkman S N,Van Gelder P HAJ M,Vrijling J K.An overviewof quantitative risk measures for loss of life and economic damage[J].Journal ofhazardous Material,2003,99(1):1-30.
[8]Vrijling J K,Van Hengel W.A framework for risk evaluation[J].Journal of Hazardous Material,1995,43(3):245-261.
[9]丁厚成,万成略.风险评价标准值初探[J].工业安全与环保,2004,30(10):45-47.
[10]刘茂.城镇公共安全规划编制要点和规划目标的研究[J].江苏城市规划,2005,(4):27-32.
[11]李冬升.基于可靠度理论的边坡风险评价研究[D].重庆:重庆大学,2006.
[12]Fell R.Some landslide risk zoning schemes in use in easter Australia and their application[C]//Sixth Australian NewZealand Conference on Ge-omechanics,Christchurch,1992:505-512.
版权所有：© 2023 中国地质图书馆 中国地质调查局地学文献中心