21世纪中国的自然灾害发展趋势──以地震和旱涝灾害为例
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摘要
通过对过去数千年的地震以及数百年的旱涝变化的研究，对中国２１世纪地震、洪涝趋势进行了探讨，研究认为，２１世纪的上半叶，我国的自然灾害态势较为严峻，可能将会面临地震多发，干旱期来临等状况，而２１世纪的下半叶，我国的自然灾害态势将会逐步缓解，地震可能将会进入一个平静期，气候也将可能转为多雨期。在此基础上，文中尝试性地提出了一些２１世纪的自然灾害防治策略。
Natural disasters pose major threat to large parts of the world. China is one of a few countries in the world with the highest level of natural disasters. Natural disasters occurred in China are characterized by multiple categories, high frequency, great seventy, and widespread distribution. The seven major kinds of natural disasters, which are meteorological, flood, oceanic, earthquake, geologic, disease and insect infestation of crops, and forestry disasters, caused great economic losses every year. As social and economic development progresses and urbanization occupies more and more areas, the economic losses due to natural disasters are increasing more rapidly. Since 1949, the natural disasters caused an annual average life losses of 20-30 thousand people, and resulted in a great economic losses. So the natural disasters have become one of the most important factors to hamper the development of China, especially earthquake, drought and flood. In order to reduce the disaster losses in the 21st century in China, one must know the possibility that earthquake, drought and flood disasters occur in China in the 21st, century. Based on the paleo-seismological and historical seismobogical data from 12,000aB.P. to present we found that earthquake in China had quasi-20a and quasi-300a active-moderate periods. In 20th century, there were five quasi-20a earthquake periods in China. The last quasi-20a period began since 1988, in which China had many destructive earthquakes such as Lijiang earthquake, Taiwan earthquake, and will end in 2001-2002. The last quasi-300a period began since 1815, and will end in 20362090. So it should be speculated that there will be two active periods of earthquake in the first half of 21st century in China, which may last from 2011-2025 and 2037- 2050, and that China may has a moderate period of earthquake in the second half of 21st century. Also based on monitoring and historic meteorological data from 1470 to 1998 in China, we found that transportation of drought and waterlogging stages had 21a and 50a periods, and the last waterlogging term began since 1990 and should end in about 2010. It can be speculated that China will suffer a serious drought term from 2010- 2040, in which China will need more water resources because of its economic progress and population growth. It can be revealed that China will have a more disaster stage in the first half of 21st century, and will have a less disaster term in the second half of 21st century. In the end of this paper, we put forward some suggestions about the countermea- sures for disaster reduction of China in the 21st century.
Natural disasters pose major threat to large parts of the world. China is one of a few countries in the world with the highest level of natural disasters. Natural disasters occurred in China are characterized by multiple categories, high frequency, great seventy, and widespread distribution. The seven major kinds of natural disasters, which are meteorological, flood, oceanic, earthquake, geologic, disease and insect infestation of crops, and forestry disasters, caused great economic losses every year. As social and economic development progresses and urbanization occupies more and more areas, the economic losses due to natural disasters are increasing more rapidly. Since 1949, the natural disasters caused an annual average life losses of 20-30 thousand people, and resulted in a great economic losses. So the natural disasters have become one of the most important factors to hamper the development of China, especially earthquake, drought and flood. In order to reduce the disaster losses in the 21st century in China, one must know the possibility that earthquake, drought and flood disasters occur in China in the 21st, century. Based on the paleo-seismological and historical seismobogical data from 12,000aB.P. to present we found that earthquake in China had quasi-20a and quasi-300a active-moderate periods. In 20th century, there were five quasi-20a earthquake periods in China. The last quasi-20a period began since 1988, in which China had many destructive earthquakes such as Lijiang earthquake, Taiwan earthquake, and will end in 2001-2002. The last quasi-300a period began since 1815, and will end in 20362090. So it should be speculated that there will be two active periods of earthquake in the first half of 21st century in China, which may last from 2011-2025 and 2037- 2050, and that China may has a moderate period of earthquake in the second half of 21st century. Also based on monitoring and historic meteorological data from 1470 to 1998 in China, we found that transportation of drought and waterlogging stages had 21a and 50a periods, and the last waterlogging term began since 1990 and should end in about 2010. It can be speculated that China will suffer a serious drought term from 2010- 2040, in which China will need more water resources because of its economic progress and population growth. It can be revealed that China will have a more disaster stage in the first half of 21st century, and will have a less disaster term in the second half of 21st century. In the end of this paper, we put forward some suggestions about the countermea- sures for disaster reduction of China in the 21st century.
引文
1马宗晋主编.中国重大自然灾害及对策.北京:科学出版社,1994.1～250
2 Gao Jianguo. Summary account of achievements and prospects of China's natural disaster reductionundertakings. Natural disaster reduction in China, 1995, 14:59-61
3王春珍,黄汉明.对我国大陆地震活动形势及几个地震区带地震活动趋势的研究.见:《地震预报研究》编委会编.地震预报研究论文集.北京:地震出版社. 1992. 96
4 《山西自然灾害》编辑委员会.山西自然灾害.太原:山西科学教育出版社,1989.255
5何淑韵等.全国地震带地震趋势及其危险区估计(1992年度).见:《地震预报研究》编委会编.地震预报研究论文集.北京:地震出版社,1992.100～107
6张虎男.南海及其周缘的地震活动与区域稳定性评价.海洋学报(中文版),1995,17(6):85
7柏美祥;罗福忠,丁德轩等.新疆可可托海-二台活断层晚第四纪活动时代的研究.见:《活动断裂研究》编委会编.活动断裂研究理论与应用(第1辑).北京:地震出版社,1991.57～70
8张安良,种 瑾,米丰收等.秦岭北缘断裂带晚第四纪活动特征及其古地震研究.见:《活动断裂研究》编委会编.活动断裂研究理论与应用(第1辑).北京:地震出版社,1991.105～117
9李家灵,晁洪太,崔昭文等.郯庐断裂带郯城-新沂段活断层研究.见:《活动断裂研究》编委会编.活动断裂研究理论与应用(第1辑).北京:地震出版社,1991.164～173
10冯先岳,李 军,陈 杰等.新疆霍尔果斯断裂古地震初步研究.见:《活动断裂研究》编委会编.活动断裂研究理论与应用(第2辑).北京:地震出版社, 1992. 95～116
11冉勇康,方仲景,王景钵等.怀 盆地北缘断裂沈庄-郝家坡区间晚第四纪的断层活动习性.见:《活动断裂研究》编委会编.活动断裂研究理论与应用(第2辑).北京:地震出版社,1992.152～162
12俞维贤,汪一鹏,宋方敏等.小江东支断裂带中段古地震初步研究.见:《活动断裂研究》编委会、国家地震局地质研究所编.活动断裂研究理论与应用(第4辑).北京:地震出版社,1995.10～16
13戴华光,陈永明,苏向洲等.天桥沟-黄羊川断裂古地震的初步研究.见:《活动断裂研究》编委会、国家地震局地质研究所编.活动断裂研究理论与应用(第4辑).北京:地震出版社,1995.92～103
14吴卫民,李 克,马保起等.大青山山前断裂带大型组合探槽的全新世古地震研究.见:《活动断裂研究》编委会、国家地震局地质研究所编.活动断裂研究理论与应用(第4辑).北京:地震出版社,1995.123～133
15毛风英,张培震.古地震研究的逐次限定方法与新疆北部主要断裂带的古地震研究.见:《活动断裂研究》编委会、国家地震局地质研究所编.活动断裂研究理论与应用(第4辑).北京:地震出版社,1995.153～164
16国家地震局震害防御司.中国历史强震目录(公元前23世纪～公元1911年).北京:地震出版社,1995.l～49
17中国社会科学院考古研究所.中国考古学中碳十四年代数据集1965～1981.北京:文物出版社,1983.l～200
18中国社会科学院考古研究所.中国考古学中碳十四年代数据集1965～1991.北京:文物出版社,1991.l～150
19宋正海,高建国,孙关龙.中国古代自然灾异群发期.合肥:安徽教育出版社,2001.l～150
20高建国.中国地震300年周期考.见:陈运泰主编.中国地震学会第八次地震学术大会文集.北京:地震出版社,2000.189
21中国气象局国家气候中心.98中国大洪水与气候异常.北京;气象出版社,1998.3
22中央气象局气象科学研究院编.中国近五百年旱涝分布图集.北京:地图出版社,1981.321～332
2 Gao Jianguo. Summary account of achievements and prospects of China's natural disaster reductionundertakings. Natural disaster reduction in China, 1995, 14:59-61
3王春珍,黄汉明.对我国大陆地震活动形势及几个地震区带地震活动趋势的研究.见:《地震预报研究》编委会编.地震预报研究论文集.北京:地震出版社. 1992. 96
4 《山西自然灾害》编辑委员会.山西自然灾害.太原:山西科学教育出版社,1989.255
5何淑韵等.全国地震带地震趋势及其危险区估计(1992年度).见:《地震预报研究》编委会编.地震预报研究论文集.北京:地震出版社,1992.100～107
6张虎男.南海及其周缘的地震活动与区域稳定性评价.海洋学报(中文版),1995,17(6):85
7柏美祥;罗福忠,丁德轩等.新疆可可托海-二台活断层晚第四纪活动时代的研究.见:《活动断裂研究》编委会编.活动断裂研究理论与应用(第1辑).北京:地震出版社,1991.57～70
8张安良,种 瑾,米丰收等.秦岭北缘断裂带晚第四纪活动特征及其古地震研究.见:《活动断裂研究》编委会编.活动断裂研究理论与应用(第1辑).北京:地震出版社,1991.105～117
9李家灵,晁洪太,崔昭文等.郯庐断裂带郯城-新沂段活断层研究.见:《活动断裂研究》编委会编.活动断裂研究理论与应用(第1辑).北京:地震出版社,1991.164～173
10冯先岳,李 军,陈 杰等.新疆霍尔果斯断裂古地震初步研究.见:《活动断裂研究》编委会编.活动断裂研究理论与应用(第2辑).北京:地震出版社, 1992. 95～116
11冉勇康,方仲景,王景钵等.怀 盆地北缘断裂沈庄-郝家坡区间晚第四纪的断层活动习性.见:《活动断裂研究》编委会编.活动断裂研究理论与应用(第2辑).北京:地震出版社,1992.152～162
12俞维贤,汪一鹏,宋方敏等.小江东支断裂带中段古地震初步研究.见:《活动断裂研究》编委会、国家地震局地质研究所编.活动断裂研究理论与应用(第4辑).北京:地震出版社,1995.10～16
13戴华光,陈永明,苏向洲等.天桥沟-黄羊川断裂古地震的初步研究.见:《活动断裂研究》编委会、国家地震局地质研究所编.活动断裂研究理论与应用(第4辑).北京:地震出版社,1995.92～103
14吴卫民,李 克,马保起等.大青山山前断裂带大型组合探槽的全新世古地震研究.见:《活动断裂研究》编委会、国家地震局地质研究所编.活动断裂研究理论与应用(第4辑).北京:地震出版社,1995.123～133
15毛风英,张培震.古地震研究的逐次限定方法与新疆北部主要断裂带的古地震研究.见:《活动断裂研究》编委会、国家地震局地质研究所编.活动断裂研究理论与应用(第4辑).北京:地震出版社,1995.153～164
16国家地震局震害防御司.中国历史强震目录(公元前23世纪～公元1911年).北京:地震出版社,1995.l～49
17中国社会科学院考古研究所.中国考古学中碳十四年代数据集1965～1981.北京:文物出版社,1983.l～200
18中国社会科学院考古研究所.中国考古学中碳十四年代数据集1965～1991.北京:文物出版社,1991.l～150
19宋正海,高建国,孙关龙.中国古代自然灾异群发期.合肥:安徽教育出版社,2001.l～150
20高建国.中国地震300年周期考.见:陈运泰主编.中国地震学会第八次地震学术大会文集.北京:地震出版社,2000.189
21中国气象局国家气候中心.98中国大洪水与气候异常.北京;气象出版社,1998.3
22中央气象局气象科学研究院编.中国近五百年旱涝分布图集.北京:地图出版社,1981.321～332
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