隧道围岩–初支系统灰色突变失稳预测模型研究
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摘要
为了预测风化岩质隧道围岩–初支系统的失稳险情,结合具体工程实践,采用系统工程科学理论和非线性科学的灰色尖点突变理论,根据系统协调性变化趋势判断其稳定性的原理,对围岩–初支系统的拱顶沉降和洞周边墙变形收敛值的现场监测数据进行平滑处理和一次累加生成变换,进行围岩–初支系统的拱顶沉降与洞周边墙的变形收敛值之比与距初支时间的多项式回归拟合,建立一个围岩–初支系统的灰色尖点突变失稳预测模型,对围岩–初支系统的失稳时间进行预测。研究结果表明:可通过建立围岩–初支系统的灰色突变失稳预测模型分析系统协调性的发展趋势,判断其稳定性;获得围岩–初支系统失稳的临界时间和系统失稳的前后时间差,准确地对围岩–初支系统失稳过程(包括临界状态)进行预警预报。
In order to forecast the destabilization and dangerous situation of surrounding rock of weathered rock tunnel and primary support system,combining with a practical engineering of shallow-buried tunnel,according to the principle of evaluating system stability with the variable tendency of its compatibility,with measured displacement data being smoothly processed and forecasted data being generated after once accumulation again,a grey-cusp-catastrophic destabilization prediction model of surrounding rock and primary support system is established by applying scientific theory of systems engineering and grey-cusp-catastrophe theory in nonlinear science;and then,the relation between the ratio of vault settlement to the deformation convergence of side wall around tunnel and time after primary support is fitted by polynomial regression;and the destabilization time of surrounding rock-primary support system is predicted by the grey-cusp-catastrophic destabilization prediction model.Furthermore,the destabilization and dangerous situation of surrounding rock and primary support system under the condition of steady rainfall are analyzed.The research results are shown as follows.Firstly,the stability of the surrounding rock and primary support system may be judged from analyzing the variable tendency of its compatibility with the grey-cusp-catastrophic destabilization prediction model.Secondlyt,he critical time and time difference of system destabilization may be more accurately derived.Moreover,the destabilization process including the critical state of the system may be accurately forewarned and forecasted by the established grey-cusp-catastrophic prediction model.
In order to forecast the destabilization and dangerous situation of surrounding rock of weathered rock tunnel and primary support system,combining with a practical engineering of shallow-buried tunnel,according to the principle of evaluating system stability with the variable tendency of its compatibility,with measured displacement data being smoothly processed and forecasted data being generated after once accumulation again,a grey-cusp-catastrophic destabilization prediction model of surrounding rock and primary support system is established by applying scientific theory of systems engineering and grey-cusp-catastrophe theory in nonlinear science;and then,the relation between the ratio of vault settlement to the deformation convergence of side wall around tunnel and time after primary support is fitted by polynomial regression;and the destabilization time of surrounding rock-primary support system is predicted by the grey-cusp-catastrophic destabilization prediction model.Furthermore,the destabilization and dangerous situation of surrounding rock and primary support system under the condition of steady rainfall are analyzed.The research results are shown as follows.Firstly,the stability of the surrounding rock and primary support system may be judged from analyzing the variable tendency of its compatibility with the grey-cusp-catastrophic destabilization prediction model.Secondlyt,he critical time and time difference of system destabilization may be more accurately derived.Moreover,the destabilization process including the critical state of the system may be accurately forewarned and forecasted by the established grey-cusp-catastrophic prediction model.
引文
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[8]熊传祥,龚晓南,王成华.高速滑坡临界变形能突变模型的研究[J].浙江大学学报(工学版),2000,34(4):443–447.(XIONG Chuanxiang,GONG Xiaonan,WANG Chenghua.A deformation energy catastrophic model of high-speed landslide before sliding[J].Journal of Zhejiang University(Engineering Science),2000,34(4):443–447.(in Chinese))
[9]CUBITT J M,SHAW B.The geological implication of steady-state mechanisms in catastrophe theory[J].Mathematical Geology,1976,8(6):657–662.
[10]刘军,秦四清,张倬元.缓倾角层状岩体失稳的尖点突变模型研究[J].岩土工程学报,2001,23(1):42–44.(LIU Jun,QIN Siqing,ZHANG Zhuoyuan.Study on catastrophic model with cusp point for failure of stratified rock mass with a gentle inclination[J].Chinese Journal of Geotechnical Engineering,2001,23(1):42–44.(in Chinese))
[11]龙辉,秦四清,朱世平,等.滑坡演化的非线性动力学与突变分析[J].工程地质学报,2001,9(3):331–335.(LONG Hui,QIN Siqing,ZHU Shiping,et al.Nonlinear dynamic model and catastrophe analysis of slope evolution[J].Journal of Engineering Geology,2001,9(3):331–335.(in Chinese))
[2]张军胜,薛烨,陶纪南.巷道和边坡的稳定位移与突发失稳时间预测[J].岩土工程学报,1996,18(1):39–45.(ZHANG Junsheng,XUE Ye,TAO Jinan.Prediction of stable displacement and unstable time on tunnel and slope[J].Chinese Journal of Geotechnical Engineering,1996,18(1):39–45.(in Chinese))
[3]徐曾和,徐小荷.考虑围岩流变特性的地震尖点型突变模型[J].岩土力学,2000,21(1):24–27.(XU Zenghe,XU Xiaohe.Instability of fault earthquake in rheological media and cusp catastrophe[J].Rock and Soil Mechanics,2000,21(1):24–27.(in Chinese))
[4]谢和平,刘夕才,王金安.关于21世纪岩石力学发展战略的思考[J].岩土工程学报,1996,18(3):98–102.(XIE Heping,LIU Xicai,WANG Jin′an.Thinking about the 21st century development stratagem of rock mechanics[J].Chinese Journal of Geotechnical Engineering,1996,18(3):98–102.(in Chinese))
[5]许建聪.浅埋风化岩质隧道初支后黏弹性变形性态分析[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2007,26(9):1 781–1 786.(XU Jiancong.Analysis of viscoelastic deformation behavior of shallow-buried decomposed rock tunnel after preliminary support[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2007,26(9):1 781–1 786.(in Chinese))
[6]秦四清,张倬元,王士天,等.非线性工程地质学导引[M].成都:西南交通大学出版社,1993.(QIN Siqing,ZHANG Zhuoyuan,WANG Shitian,et al.An introduction to nonlinear engineering geology[M].Chengdu:Southwest Jiaotong University Press,1993.(in Chinese))
[7]龙辉,秦四清,万志清.降雨触发滑坡的尖点突变模型[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2002,21(4):502–508.(LONG Hui,QIN Siqing,WAN Zhiqing.Catastrophe analysis of rainfall-induced landslides[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2002,21(4):502–508.(in Chinese))
[8]熊传祥,龚晓南,王成华.高速滑坡临界变形能突变模型的研究[J].浙江大学学报(工学版),2000,34(4):443–447.(XIONG Chuanxiang,GONG Xiaonan,WANG Chenghua.A deformation energy catastrophic model of high-speed landslide before sliding[J].Journal of Zhejiang University(Engineering Science),2000,34(4):443–447.(in Chinese))
[9]CUBITT J M,SHAW B.The geological implication of steady-state mechanisms in catastrophe theory[J].Mathematical Geology,1976,8(6):657–662.
[10]刘军,秦四清,张倬元.缓倾角层状岩体失稳的尖点突变模型研究[J].岩土工程学报,2001,23(1):42–44.(LIU Jun,QIN Siqing,ZHANG Zhuoyuan.Study on catastrophic model with cusp point for failure of stratified rock mass with a gentle inclination[J].Chinese Journal of Geotechnical Engineering,2001,23(1):42–44.(in Chinese))
[11]龙辉,秦四清,朱世平,等.滑坡演化的非线性动力学与突变分析[J].工程地质学报,2001,9(3):331–335.(LONG Hui,QIN Siqing,ZHU Shiping,et al.Nonlinear dynamic model and catastrophe analysis of slope evolution[J].Journal of Engineering Geology,2001,9(3):331–335.(in Chinese))
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