对地震地下流体学科研究与发展问题的思考
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摘要
依据地下流体存在趋势性异常和短临异常的基本观测事实,提出"应力-应变效应说与水诱发异常说并重"的地下流体地震预报研究的科学思路。按照这一思路,对地震地下流体观测的布网与选井原则提出了新的补充意见;认为降水及其相关的地表水、地下水及大范围抽水等是地形变、地应变、地应力、水化及地电阻率等多种前兆异常产生的调制与诱发因素,因而需要对原来的干扰因素的内涵作修正;对地下流体前兆异常做了新定义及主要特征的归纳;对于今后的工作,提出了加强对地下流体短临前兆异常重现性的研究、加强对浅层地下流体的调制与诱发作用的研究以及积极促进地震地下流体学与其他相关学科的交叉与融合等建议。
Based on the basic observational facts that there exist tendence and shortterm and imminent anomalies of subsurface fluid, a scientific conception that earthquake prediction′s research of subsurface fluid should pay equal attention to stressstrain effect; and "induced groundwater anomalies" has been put forward. According to the conception, new complementarity thinking for the distribution of observational network of seismic subsurface fluid and principle of choosing well has been put forward. It considers that atmospheric water and its relevant surface water as well as ground water and pumping water in a large range are concoction and induction factors for crustal deformation, earthstrain, earth stress, hydrochemistry, earthresistivity and so on creating multiprecursory anomalies. So it is necessary that the connotation of original disturbance factor should be modified and the precursory anomaly of subsurface fluid needs to be renewedly defined. The precursory anomalies of subsurface fluid have six basic characteristics. For the work in the future, it has put forward three suggestions regarding enhancing the recurrent character′s research of shortterm and imminent precursory anomalies for subsurface fluid, enhancing the research of concoction and induction role for shallow subsurface fluid and actively promoting the research for seismic subsurface fluid subject to cross and syncretized with other relevant subjects.
Based on the basic observational facts that there exist tendence and shortterm and imminent anomalies of subsurface fluid, a scientific conception that earthquake prediction′s research of subsurface fluid should pay equal attention to stressstrain effect; and "induced groundwater anomalies" has been put forward. According to the conception, new complementarity thinking for the distribution of observational network of seismic subsurface fluid and principle of choosing well has been put forward. It considers that atmospheric water and its relevant surface water as well as ground water and pumping water in a large range are concoction and induction factors for crustal deformation, earthstrain, earth stress, hydrochemistry, earthresistivity and so on creating multiprecursory anomalies. So it is necessary that the connotation of original disturbance factor should be modified and the precursory anomaly of subsurface fluid needs to be renewedly defined. The precursory anomalies of subsurface fluid have six basic characteristics. For the work in the future, it has put forward three suggestions regarding enhancing the recurrent character′s research of shortterm and imminent precursory anomalies for subsurface fluid, enhancing the research of concoction and induction role for shallow subsurface fluid and actively promoting the research for seismic subsurface fluid subject to cross and syncretized with other relevant subjects.
引文
[1] 国家地震局科技监测司.地震地下流体观测技术[M].北京:地震出版社,1995.11-12,38-56.
[2] 国家地震局预测预防司.地下流体地震预报方法[M].北京:地震出版社,1997.151-154.
[3] 中国地震局监测预报司.一九九八年张北地震[M].北京:地震出版社,1999.99-131.
[4] 王吉易,宋贯一,曹志成,等.地下水诱发的浅层前兆异常及其机理与有关的地震预报问题(1)[J].华北地震科学,2002,20(2):27-41.
[5] 王吉易,董守玉,万迪坤.地下流体附加力源的研究思路[J].华北地震科学,1995,13(2):61-65.
[6] 车用太,刘五洲,鱼金子.华北地区降雨与地震关系及中期预报新思路[A].国家地震局地质研究所.地震监测预报的新思路与新方法[C].北京:地震出版社,1997.39-42.
[7] 杨玉荣.我国地震流体前兆研究与展望[A].中国地震学会地震流体专业委员会,云南省地震局.地震流体前兆研究[C].北京:地震出版社,1998.1-4.
[2] 国家地震局预测预防司.地下流体地震预报方法[M].北京:地震出版社,1997.151-154.
[3] 中国地震局监测预报司.一九九八年张北地震[M].北京:地震出版社,1999.99-131.
[4] 王吉易,宋贯一,曹志成,等.地下水诱发的浅层前兆异常及其机理与有关的地震预报问题(1)[J].华北地震科学,2002,20(2):27-41.
[5] 王吉易,董守玉,万迪坤.地下流体附加力源的研究思路[J].华北地震科学,1995,13(2):61-65.
[6] 车用太,刘五洲,鱼金子.华北地区降雨与地震关系及中期预报新思路[A].国家地震局地质研究所.地震监测预报的新思路与新方法[C].北京:地震出版社,1997.39-42.
[7] 杨玉荣.我国地震流体前兆研究与展望[A].中国地震学会地震流体专业委员会,云南省地震局.地震流体前兆研究[C].北京:地震出版社,1998.1-4.
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