中国持续暴雨及洪涝灾害的成因与预测
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摘要
持续性特大暴雨及洪涝灾害的成因及其预测 ,是国际科学界难以攻克的难题之一。本文综述了作者近 2 0年来对越赤道气流的研究及其与中国持续性特大暴雨和洪涝灾害的关系 ,并简要介绍了北京大学李宪之教授有关“宏观系统”的概念及国家地震局曾小苹研究员对地磁场异常与暴雨和洪涝关系的研究成果 ,以及在以上科研成果基础上创立的“气象与地球物理综合法”在1998— 2 0 0 2 5年中 ,在中国汛期降水预测实践中所取得的结果。
The causes and prediction of persistent storm rainfall and the flooding disaster is one of the most difficult problems in the world scientific community.A review on the author's research in the field of the cross\|equatorial flow and the relationship with the storm rainfall and flooding disaster in the last 20 years was made.At the same time,the conception of the “Larg\|scale System between two Hemispheres” presented by Prof.Li Xianzhi (Sjan\|zsi Li) and Prof.Zeng Xiaoping's research results—the relationship between the geomagnetic anomaly and the storm rainfall as well as the flooding disaster in China was introduced too.It is founded that a “synthesis of meteorology and geophysics” upon the above results to predict the storm rainfall and heavy flooding.The 5 years operational test from 1998 to 2002 showed that the “synthesis of meteorology and geophysics”approach has reasonable forecasting skill and further study and experiments are needed to improve this method.
The causes and prediction of persistent storm rainfall and the flooding disaster is one of the most difficult problems in the world scientific community.A review on the author's research in the field of the cross\|equatorial flow and the relationship with the storm rainfall and flooding disaster in the last 20 years was made.At the same time,the conception of the “Larg\|scale System between two Hemispheres” presented by Prof.Li Xianzhi (Sjan\|zsi Li) and Prof.Zeng Xiaoping's research results—the relationship between the geomagnetic anomaly and the storm rainfall as well as the flooding disaster in China was introduced too.It is founded that a “synthesis of meteorology and geophysics” upon the above results to predict the storm rainfall and heavy flooding.The 5 years operational test from 1998 to 2002 showed that the “synthesis of meteorology and geophysics”approach has reasonable forecasting skill and further study and experiments are needed to improve this method.
引文
参阅:丁继武,“汛期,气候预测有多难?”中国气象报19991021第二版及肖祥,“长期预报是科学难题”,中国气象报19991230。
1)取自《降水问题》一书,但作者增加了索马里处一支重要的通道。
1李宪之.历史上的自然灾害.见:仇永炎主编.寒潮台风灾害———庆贺李宪之教授九十五华诞文集.北京:气象出版社,2001,337～353
2张家诚,周魁一,杨华庭,等.中国气象、洪涝、海洋灾害.长沙:湖南人民出版社,1998,155～160
3Sjan zsiLi.DieK lteeinbrcheinOstasien.InauguralDissertation.Universit tzuBerlin,8.Februar1935.译文发表在《中国近代科学论著丛刊———气象学1919—1949》,北京:科学出版社,1955,35～118
4李宪之.降水问题.北京:海洋出版社,1987,233～239
5FindlaterJ.1969,AMajorLowLevelAirCurrentneartheIndianOceanduringtheNorthernSummer.QuartJRMetSoc,1969,95:362～380
6李曾中,楼光平.北半球夏季风时期东半球越赤道气流通道的研究.大气科学,1987,11(3):313～319
7韦有暹,杨亚正.南海台风发生发展与南半球跨赤道气流.见:全国台风科研技术组编.1981年台风会议文集.上海:上海科技出版社.1983,103～109
8李曾中.西北太平洋地区赤道西风的爆发性东进与台风活动.见:本论文集编辑组.热带环流和系统学术会议文集.北京:海洋出版社,1982,129～139
9李曾中,李月安,晁淑懿.越赤道气流与我国洪涝灾害关系的初探.应用气象学报.第9卷增刊,1998,132～136
10李宪之.半球间宏观天气系统问题.见:仇永炎主编.寒潮台风灾害———庆贺李宪之教授九十五华诞文集.北京:气象出版社,2001,384～392
11李宪之.减轻几种主要自然灾害的途径.见:仇永炎主编.寒潮台风灾害———庆贺李宪之教授九十五华诞文集.北京:气象出版社,2001:369～374
12曾小苹,林云芳,续春荣.地球磁场大面积短暂异常与灾害性天气相关性初探.自然灾害学报,1992,1(2):59～65
13李宪之.利用卫星云图解决几个气象问题尝试.见:李曾中主编:李宪之教授纪念文集.气象出版社,2004
14郭增建,秦保燕,李革平.未来灾害学.北京:地震出版社,1992
15杜乐天,贾跃明,肖庆辉,等.天然气开发新方向.北京:中国地质矿业信息研究院出版(内部发行),1993
16杜乐天.自然灾害可能的深部流体肇因.地学前缘,1996,3(3—4):298～305
1)取自《降水问题》一书,但作者增加了索马里处一支重要的通道。
1李宪之.历史上的自然灾害.见:仇永炎主编.寒潮台风灾害———庆贺李宪之教授九十五华诞文集.北京:气象出版社,2001,337～353
2张家诚,周魁一,杨华庭,等.中国气象、洪涝、海洋灾害.长沙:湖南人民出版社,1998,155～160
3Sjan zsiLi.DieK lteeinbrcheinOstasien.InauguralDissertation.Universit tzuBerlin,8.Februar1935.译文发表在《中国近代科学论著丛刊———气象学1919—1949》,北京:科学出版社,1955,35～118
4李宪之.降水问题.北京:海洋出版社,1987,233～239
5FindlaterJ.1969,AMajorLowLevelAirCurrentneartheIndianOceanduringtheNorthernSummer.QuartJRMetSoc,1969,95:362～380
6李曾中,楼光平.北半球夏季风时期东半球越赤道气流通道的研究.大气科学,1987,11(3):313～319
7韦有暹,杨亚正.南海台风发生发展与南半球跨赤道气流.见:全国台风科研技术组编.1981年台风会议文集.上海:上海科技出版社.1983,103～109
8李曾中.西北太平洋地区赤道西风的爆发性东进与台风活动.见:本论文集编辑组.热带环流和系统学术会议文集.北京:海洋出版社,1982,129～139
9李曾中,李月安,晁淑懿.越赤道气流与我国洪涝灾害关系的初探.应用气象学报.第9卷增刊,1998,132～136
10李宪之.半球间宏观天气系统问题.见:仇永炎主编.寒潮台风灾害———庆贺李宪之教授九十五华诞文集.北京:气象出版社,2001,384～392
11李宪之.减轻几种主要自然灾害的途径.见:仇永炎主编.寒潮台风灾害———庆贺李宪之教授九十五华诞文集.北京:气象出版社,2001:369～374
12曾小苹,林云芳,续春荣.地球磁场大面积短暂异常与灾害性天气相关性初探.自然灾害学报,1992,1(2):59～65
13李宪之.利用卫星云图解决几个气象问题尝试.见:李曾中主编:李宪之教授纪念文集.气象出版社,2004
14郭增建,秦保燕,李革平.未来灾害学.北京:地震出版社,1992
15杜乐天,贾跃明,肖庆辉,等.天然气开发新方向.北京:中国地质矿业信息研究院出版(内部发行),1993
16杜乐天.自然灾害可能的深部流体肇因.地学前缘,1996,3(3—4):298～305
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