综合异常指数的进一步研究与应用
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摘要
从指数分布函数出发对于基于多种地震前兆异常的综合异常指数进行了较为深入的探讨,综合异常指数具有直接的数学来源,蕴涵着明确的物理意义:将失效分布函数中的失效率分段取值,并与地震研究中某种预测手段或方法所处的状态联系起来,即取为某种预测手段或方法在某研究考察时段内的异常隶属度,产品的失效则意味着该预测手段或方法出现了异常,得到异常指数;对其进行加权,得到单项异常指数;对单项异常指数进行综合后即得到综合异常指数。综合异常指数包含了所研究的所有观测手段或方法所蕴涵的地震信息。最后将其具体应用于宁夏震情监视区,进行了预测检验。发现对于1970年后发生在宁夏及邻区的9次中强地震事件,综合异常指数均有较好的对应。
From the exponential distribution function, more deep going discussion has been made on the synthetical anomaly index based on many kinds of seismic precursory anomalies. Synthetical anomaly index has direct mathematical origin and contains clear physical meaning. The loss efficiency in loss effect distribution function has given values according to divided sections and related to the states of some prediction means or methods in earthquake study. That is, it has given the anomaly degree of some prediction means or methods in certain study time. Loss effect of the product means that anomaly appears in the prediction means or methods and the anomaly index has been got. After the anomaly index is weighted, the single anomaly index has been got. Having synthesized anomaly index, the synthetical anomalt index has been got. Finally, it is used in Ningxia earthquake monitoring region and the prediction test is made. It has been found that the synthetical anomaly index is better correlated with 9 moderately strong earthquake events occurred in Ningxia and its neighboring region.
From the exponential distribution function, more deep going discussion has been made on the synthetical anomaly index based on many kinds of seismic precursory anomalies. Synthetical anomaly index has direct mathematical origin and contains clear physical meaning. The loss efficiency in loss effect distribution function has given values according to divided sections and related to the states of some prediction means or methods in earthquake study. That is, it has given the anomaly degree of some prediction means or methods in certain study time. Loss effect of the product means that anomaly appears in the prediction means or methods and the anomaly index has been got. After the anomaly index is weighted, the single anomaly index has been got. Having synthesized anomaly index, the synthetical anomalt index has been got. Finally, it is used in Ningxia earthquake monitoring region and the prediction test is made. It has been found that the synthetical anomaly index is better correlated with 9 moderately strong earthquake events occurred in Ningxia and its neighboring region.
引文
①罗兰格等 ,中短期前兆识别准则和评价研究 , 2 0 0 0。
[1] 罗兰格,曾炬,侯建明,等.地震综合预报方法及其物理实质[A].国家地震局科技监测司.地震监测与预报方法清理成果汇编[C].北京:地震出版社,1989.31 37.
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[10] 王海涛,曲延军,和锐.基于多种地震前兆异常的综合异常指数研究[J].内陆地震,2002,16(4):302 305.
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[1] 罗兰格,曾炬,侯建明,等.地震综合预报方法及其物理实质[A].国家地震局科技监测司.地震监测与预报方法清理成果汇编[C].北京:地震出版社,1989.31 37.
[2] 张郢珍,粟生平,邱竟男.用于地震综合预报研究的模式识别方法[A].国家地震局科技监测司.地震预报实用化研究文集[C].北京:地震出版社,1991.342 354.
[3] 李广鑫,吴晓芝.华北地震的积分法预报研究[A].国家地震局科技监测司.地震预报实用化研究文集[C].北京:地震出版社,1991.270 278.
[4] 冯德益,郑熙,吴国有,等.模糊数学在地震综合预报中的某些应用基于地震前兆的模糊综合预报[A].国家地震局科技监测司.地震预报实用化研究文集[C].北京:地震出版社,1991.332341.
[5] 朱令人.地震预报中模糊概率语言及其综合评判[A].国家地震局科技监测司.地震监测与预报方法清理成果汇编[C].北京:地震出版社,1989.191 195.
[6] 周硕愚,董慧凤,吴云,等.地震综合预报的信息系统方法原理、模型与应用[A].国家地震局科技监测司.地震预报实用化研究文集[C].北京:地震出版社,1991.279 294.
[7] 王海涛,杨马陵,杨又陵,等.多种前兆观测数据的合成信息熵研究[J].西北地震学报,1998,20(1):37 42.
[8] 陈棋福,石耀霖.基于遗传算法的分类体系在地震预报中的应用探索[J].地球物理学报,1997,36(4):539 549.
[9] 朱令人,周仕勇,邓传玲.地震综合预报的新方法投影寻踪回归[J].地震学报,1994,16(增刊):1 9.
[10] 王海涛,曲延军,和锐.基于多种地震前兆异常的综合异常指数研究[J].内陆地震,2002,16(4):302 305.
[11] 茆诗松,王玲玲.可靠性统计[M].上海:华东师范大学出版社,1984.~~
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