汶川地震灾区堰塞湖应急处置中的计算分析
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摘要
四川"5·12"汶川大地震形成的34个主要堰塞湖,超过半数处于中危以上,需要及时开展溃决风险评估和应急处置。应用数字流域模型和水动力学模型,在资料匮乏的条件下,快速预报了典型堰塞湖的来流入库过程和溃口发展过程,模拟了不同应急预案条件下的洪水传播过程,为堰塞湖溃决风险评估和应急处置提供了有效依据。将来需要进一步建立集来流预报、泄流溃决、洪水淹没及优化措施分析为一体的完整模型体系,以应对基本数据匮乏条件下的应急预警预报和优化决策需求。
The 8.0-magnitude Wenchuan earthquake triggered huge landslides that blocked rivers and created more than 34 quake lakes including the Tangjiashan one on the Jianjiang River in Beichuan County.More than 17 quake lakes were in moderately dangerous situations and needed to be tackled in emergency for hazards relief.The Digital Watershed Model(DWM) and hydrodynamic models developed at Tsinghua University were adopted for quickly forecasting the incoming flow discharge and dam-breach processes of the Tangjiashan Quake Lake.Dam break scenarios of typical quake lakes were also simulated for outburst flood routing in downstream rivers and the simulation results were used for the design of emergency treatment plans.To meet the need of emergency forecasting and treatment of quake lakes in areas with limited data,it is desirable to set up an integrated modeling system that functions as hydrological forecasting,dam breach analysis,inundation analysis,and optimal decision of engineering measures.
The 8.0-magnitude Wenchuan earthquake triggered huge landslides that blocked rivers and created more than 34 quake lakes including the Tangjiashan one on the Jianjiang River in Beichuan County.More than 17 quake lakes were in moderately dangerous situations and needed to be tackled in emergency for hazards relief.The Digital Watershed Model(DWM) and hydrodynamic models developed at Tsinghua University were adopted for quickly forecasting the incoming flow discharge and dam-breach processes of the Tangjiashan Quake Lake.Dam break scenarios of typical quake lakes were also simulated for outburst flood routing in downstream rivers and the simulation results were used for the design of emergency treatment plans.To meet the need of emergency forecasting and treatment of quake lakes in areas with limited data,it is desirable to set up an integrated modeling system that functions as hydrological forecasting,dam breach analysis,inundation analysis,and optimal decision of engineering measures.
引文
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[2]柴贺军,刘汉超.一九三三年叠溪地震滑坡堵江事件及其环境效应.地质灾害与环境保护,1995,6(1):7-17
[3]周魁一,苏克忠.十四世纪以来我国地震次生水灾的研究.自然灾害学报,1992,1(3):83-91
[4]晏鄂川,郑万模,唐辉明,等.滑坡堵江坝溃决洪水及其演进的理论分析.水文地质工程地质,2001,28(6):15-17,22
[5]王光谦,刘家宏.数字流域模型.北京:科学出版社,2006
[6]Wang G Q,Wu B S,Li TJ.Digital yellowriver model.Journal of Hydro-Environment Research,2007,1(1):1-11
[7]刘帆.一维溃坝模拟及四川堰塞湖应急计算[D].北京:清华大学,2008
[8]四川省水利水电勘测设计研究院.四川安县肖家桥堰塞湖应急处理工程设计方案报告.成都:四川省水利水电勘测设计研究院,2008
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