基于地震压埋率的在室率先验性研究
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摘要
针对震后快速反应与应急救援辅助决策的需要,在分析研究地震压埋人员影响因素的基础上,建立了基于倒塌率和在室率的压埋率预估模型。以在室率为先验概率,提出了在室率区划的概念,并对全国绝大多数地方进行了在室率区划,为快速预测地震压埋人员提供了先决条件。最后,以汶川地震灾区部分中小学为例,用压埋率模型进行估计,说明在室率在压埋率中的作用和关系,证实了在室率的先验性。
To meet the demand of fast response and emergence rescue assistant decision-making,the prediction model for buried rate was set up based on collapse rate and in-building rate Taking the in-building rate as a priori probability,a concept of in-building rate regionalization was presented and the in-building rate regionalization carried out for most areas of China which provide prior condition to predict seismic buried personnel fast.At last,taking middle primary schools in disaster area of Wenchuan earthquake as example,situation of buried personnel was estimated with the model of buried rate and the precision of the model was analyzed with error theory.It is proved that the priori nature of the in-building rate is true.
To meet the demand of fast response and emergence rescue assistant decision-making,the prediction model for buried rate was set up based on collapse rate and in-building rate Taking the in-building rate as a priori probability,a concept of in-building rate regionalization was presented and the in-building rate regionalization carried out for most areas of China which provide prior condition to predict seismic buried personnel fast.At last,taking middle primary schools in disaster area of Wenchuan earthquake as example,situation of buried personnel was estimated with the model of buried rate and the precision of the model was analyzed with error theory.It is proved that the priori nature of the in-building rate is true.
引文
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[10]http://www.worldchineseweekly.com/weekly_cn/article/,2008-07-12/2008-10-29.
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[2]马玉宏,谢礼立.关于地震人员伤亡因素的探讨[J].自然灾害学报,2000,9(3):84-90.
[3]赵振东,郑向远.地震人员伤亡研究的回顾与进展[J].自然灾害学报,2000,9(1):94-97.
[4]李海华.震灾最大伤亡率的初步分析[J].灾害学,1987,2:42-43.
[5]盛骤,谢式千.概率论与数理统计[M].北京:高等教育出版社,1989.
[6]甘本根.中国作息时间参考区的初步研究[J].抚州师专学报,1999,62(3):84-90.
[7]程家喻,杨喆.唐山地震人员震亡率与房屋倒塌率的相关分析[J].地震地质,1993,15(1):83-87.
[8]程家喻.地震发生时间对人员伤亡影响的概率[J].灾害学,1993,8(2):14-16.
[9]程家喻,杨喆.评估地震人员伤亡的软件系统[J].地震地质,1996,18(4):468-469.
[10]http://www.worldchineseweekly.com/weekly_cn/article/,2008-07-12/2008-10-29.
[11]武汉大学测绘学院测量平差学科组.误差理论与测量平差基础[M].武汉:武汉大学出版社,2002.
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