适宜绿洲规模数学模型的比较研究——以且末为例
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摘要
根据且末绿洲综合分析的基础上,基于水量平衡法和适当的水热平衡绿洲规模数学模型,分析了且末绿洲适宜的发展规模,得出以下结论:①且末绿洲总面积为992.16 km~2,现耕地总面积为150.88 km~2;②通过水量平衡法计算的且末适宜绿洲规模为1 062.67 km~2,且末绿洲适宜耕地面积为336.59 km~2。绿洲的现有规模及现有耕地面积比适宜规模小,需增加70.51 km~2的绿洲面积和185.71 km~2的耕地面积。可知,可以扩大绿洲面积,然而不能确定稳定性。③通过水热平衡法计算且末绿洲适宜规模为609.22～812.29 km~2,适宜耕地面积为92.66～123.55 km~2。即绿洲的现规模和现耕地面积远超适宜规模,同样超出适宜规模及适宜耕地面积的0.2～0.6倍。绿洲面积不宜再扩大。④结合且末绿洲的实际情况,且末绿洲稳定性指数约为0.5358,且末绿洲处于亚稳定状态,生态系统退化,绿洲需要较高的投入才能保持稳定。因此,水热平衡的适宜绿洲规模数学模型符合且末适宜绿洲规模计算的模型。
Based on the comprehensive analysis of Qiemo Oasis,and on the basis of the water balance method and the appropriate mathematical model of the size of the water-heat balance oasis,this paper analyzes the suitable development scale of Qiemo Oasis,and draws the following conclusions: ①The total area of the last oasis is 992.16 km~2,and the total area of cultivated land is 150.88 km~2. ②According to the water balance method,the suitable oasis scale is 1 062.67 km~2 and the suitable cultivated land area of the last oasis is 336.59 km~2.The present scale of oasis and the cultivated land area are smaller than the suitable scale. It is necessary to increase the area of Oasis by70.51 and 185.71 km~2. It can be seen that the oasis area can be enlarged,but the stability can not be determined. ③The suitable scale of the last oasis is 609.22 ～ 812.29 km~2,and the suitable cultivated land area is 92.66～123.55 km~2. That is to say,the present scale of oasis and the area of cultivated land are far more than the suitable scale,and they are also 0.2 ～ 0.6 times larger than the suitable scale and the area of cultivated land. The area of oasis should not be enlarged. ④Combined with the actual situation of the last oasis,and the stability index of the last oasis is about 0.535 8,and the last oasis is in a sub-stable state,ecosystem degradation,oasis needs higher input to maintain stability.Therefore,the suitable oasis scale mathematical model of water and heat balance accords with the model of oasis scale calculation.
Based on the comprehensive analysis of Qiemo Oasis,and on the basis of the water balance method and the appropriate mathematical model of the size of the water-heat balance oasis,this paper analyzes the suitable development scale of Qiemo Oasis,and draws the following conclusions: ①The total area of the last oasis is 992.16 km~2,and the total area of cultivated land is 150.88 km~2. ②According to the water balance method,the suitable oasis scale is 1 062.67 km~2 and the suitable cultivated land area of the last oasis is 336.59 km~2.The present scale of oasis and the cultivated land area are smaller than the suitable scale. It is necessary to increase the area of Oasis by70.51 and 185.71 km~2. It can be seen that the oasis area can be enlarged,but the stability can not be determined. ③The suitable scale of the last oasis is 609.22 ～ 812.29 km~2,and the suitable cultivated land area is 92.66～123.55 km~2. That is to say,the present scale of oasis and the area of cultivated land are far more than the suitable scale,and they are also 0.2 ～ 0.6 times larger than the suitable scale and the area of cultivated land. The area of oasis should not be enlarged. ④Combined with the actual situation of the last oasis,and the stability index of the last oasis is about 0.535 8,and the last oasis is in a sub-stable state,ecosystem degradation,oasis needs higher input to maintain stability.Therefore,the suitable oasis scale mathematical model of water and heat balance accords with the model of oasis scale calculation.
引文
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[16]王忠静,王海峰,雷志栋.干旱内陆河区绿洲稳定性分析[J].水利学报,2002(5):26-30.
[17]郭明,李新.基于遥感和GIS绿洲发育适度规模分析:以酒泉绿洲为例[J].遥感技术与应用,2006,21(4):312-316.
[18]黄领梅,沈冰,张高锋.新疆和田绿洲适宜规模的研究[J].干旱区资源与环境,2008,22(9):1-4.
[19]柯夫达.生物圈变化的总趋势[J].干旱区研究,1987(1):68-72.
[2]周成龙,钟昕洁,张仕明等.塔克拉玛干沙漠腹地与周边地区降水及风沙环境对比分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2017,31(2):117-122.
[3]张沛,陈超群,徐海量等.塔里木河“九源一干”可承载最大灌溉面积探讨[J].干旱区研究,2017,34(1):223-231.
[4]邓铭江,南疆未来发展的思考-塔里木河流域水问题与水战略研究[J].干旱区地理,2016,39(1):1-10.
[5]杨依天,杨越,武智勇.西北干旱区绿洲化及其环境效应综述[J].河北民族师范学院学报,2015,35(2):20-25.
[6]孙建光,韩桂兰.塔里木河流域干旱区绿洲河道生境生态水权及其计量研究[J].灌溉排水学报,2015,34(3):81-85.
[7]丁俊祥,邹杰,唐立松.克里雅河流域荒漠-绿洲交错带3种不同生活型植物的光合特性[J].生态学报,2015,35(3):733-741.
[8]LING Hongbo,XU Hailiang,FU Jinyi,et al.Suitable oasis scale in a typical continental river basin in an arid region of China:A case study of the Manas River Basin[J].Quatenary International,2012,286(2013):116-125.
[9]MORAN M S,CLARKE T R,INOUE Y,et al.Estimating crop water deficit using the relation between surface-air temperature and spectral vegetation index[J].Remote Sensing Envir,1994,49(3):246-263.
[10]MONIREH F,HONG Y,RAINER S,et al.Abbaspour,modeling wheat yield and crop water productivity in Iran:implications of agricultural water management for wheat production[J].Agri Water Manag,2010,97(11):1 861-1 875.
[11]HU Shunjun,SONG Yudong,TIAN Changyan,et al.Suitable scale of Weigan River plain oasis[J].Science in China Series D(Earth Sciences),2007,50(Supp,I):56-64.
[12]姜德华,王国清.新疆库车绿洲灌溉农业发展模式[J].自然资源,1991,6(2):27-32.
[13]曲耀光,马世敏,刘景时.西北干旱区水资源开发利用阶段及潜力[J].自然资源学报,1995,10(1):27-34.
[14]陈昌毓.河西走廊绿洲和耕地的适宜面积及其沙害防治对策[J].干旱地区农业研究,1990(2):30-37.
[15]陈昌毓.河西走廊实际水资源及其确定的适宜绿洲和农田面积[J].干旱区资源与环境,1995,9(3):124-130.
[16]王忠静,王海峰,雷志栋.干旱内陆河区绿洲稳定性分析[J].水利学报,2002(5):26-30.
[17]郭明,李新.基于遥感和GIS绿洲发育适度规模分析:以酒泉绿洲为例[J].遥感技术与应用,2006,21(4):312-316.
[18]黄领梅,沈冰,张高锋.新疆和田绿洲适宜规模的研究[J].干旱区资源与环境,2008,22(9):1-4.
[19]柯夫达.生物圈变化的总趋势[J].干旱区研究,1987(1):68-72.