蛛网萼的地理分布模拟及迁移趋势预测
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摘要
为探究国家Ⅱ级野生保护植物蛛网萼Platycrater arguta的地理分布格局,了解它在气候变化下地理迁移的趋势,运用DIVA-GIS软件及其整合的BIOCLIM和DOMAIN模型,结合经过筛选的80个精确分布点信息,对其潜在分布区进行预测并分析影响其分布的主要气候因子。2种模型的预测结果均表明:当下蛛网萼的潜在分布区集中在中国浙赣闽交界处和日本四国岛,且未来气候下蛛网萼的最适生活区有明显的缩小,低度适生区整体向西偏移,并有向高海拔迁移的趋势。受试者工作特征曲线(ROC曲线)检验表明:2种模型的ROC曲线下的面积(AUC值)均达到0.9以上,说明模型预测结果可信。对19个气候变量的主成分分析表明:第1主成分方差贡献率为95%以上,其中年降水量(BIO12),最湿季降水量(BIO16)和最暖季降水量(BIO18)载荷值较高,是影响蛛网萼分布的主要气候因子,表明水分是影响蛛网萼分布的主要因素。建议基于其预测的分布区域开展相应的调查与保护工作。
To find the geographical distribution pattern of the National Level Ⅱ wild protected plant Platycrater arguta and to understand its geographical migration patterns with climate change,DIVA-GIS software and its integrated BIOCLIM and DOMAIN models were used in combination with 80 precision distribution points.Distribution point information was used to forecast the potential distribution area and analysis included the Receiver Operating Characteristic(ROC) curve test for the main climatic factors affecting distribution and a principal component analysis.The precise distribution information of P.arguta was imported into DIVA-GIS software,and the potential distribution area of P.arguta was predicted through the modelling panel.Prediction results from the two models both indicated that current potential distribution areas of P.arguta were concentrated at the junction of Zhejiang,Jiangxi,and Fujian Provinces in China as well as Shikoku Island in Japan.The optimum living area for P.arguta was greatly reduced with future climate estimates,and the low-grade habitat area shifted overall to the west and to higher altitudes.The ROC curve test showed that the area under the curve(AUC) values of both models reached more than 0.9 indicating that model prediction results were credible.The principal component analysis of 19 climatic variables showed that annual precipitation(BIO12),the most humid seasonal precipitation(BIO16),and the warmest seasonal precipitation(BIO18) were the major climatic factors that affected distribution of Platycrater arguta indicating that water was the main factor.Thus,research and protection strategies should be carried out based on predicted distribution areas.
To find the geographical distribution pattern of the National Level Ⅱ wild protected plant Platycrater arguta and to understand its geographical migration patterns with climate change,DIVA-GIS software and its integrated BIOCLIM and DOMAIN models were used in combination with 80 precision distribution points.Distribution point information was used to forecast the potential distribution area and analysis included the Receiver Operating Characteristic(ROC) curve test for the main climatic factors affecting distribution and a principal component analysis.The precise distribution information of P.arguta was imported into DIVA-GIS software,and the potential distribution area of P.arguta was predicted through the modelling panel.Prediction results from the two models both indicated that current potential distribution areas of P.arguta were concentrated at the junction of Zhejiang,Jiangxi,and Fujian Provinces in China as well as Shikoku Island in Japan.The optimum living area for P.arguta was greatly reduced with future climate estimates,and the low-grade habitat area shifted overall to the west and to higher altitudes.The ROC curve test showed that the area under the curve(AUC) values of both models reached more than 0.9 indicating that model prediction results were credible.The principal component analysis of 19 climatic variables showed that annual precipitation(BIO12),the most humid seasonal precipitation(BIO16),and the warmest seasonal precipitation(BIO18) were the major climatic factors that affected distribution of Platycrater arguta indicating that water was the main factor.Thus,research and protection strategies should be carried out based on predicted distribution areas.
引文
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[24]张丽芳,裘利洪.蛛网萼开花物候、花部特征及繁育系统研究[J].广西植物,2017,37(10):1301-1311.ZHANG Lifang,QIU Lihong.Flowering phenology,floral traits and breeding system of Platycrater arguta[J].Guihaia,2017,37(10):1301-1311.
[25]张丽芳,林昌勇,俞群,等.珍稀濒危植物蛛网萼的种子形态及萌发特性[J].江西农业大学学报,2015,37(3):497-503.ZHANG Lifang,LIN Changyong,YU Qun,et al.The morphological structure and germination characters of seed of rare and endangered species Platycrater arguta[J].Acta Agric Univ Jiangxi.2015,37(3):497-503.
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[27]朱弘,尤禄祥,李涌福,等.浙闽樱桃地理分布模拟及气候限制因子分析[J].热带亚热带植物学报,2017,25(4):315-322.ZHU Hong,YOU Luxiang,LI Yongfu,et al.Modeling the geographical distribution pattern and climatic limited factors of Cerasus schneideriana[J].J Trop SubtropBot,2017,25(4):315-322.
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[2]IPCC.IPCC,2013,Technical summary[G]//STOCKER T,QIN D,PLATTNER G,et al.IPCC,Climate Change 2013the Physical Science Basis,Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Chang.Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2013:710-719.
[3]祁新帅.东亚特有间断分布植物蛛网萼属的生物地理学研究[D].杭州:浙江大学,2013.QI Xinshuai.Biogeographic Studies on the Genus Platycrater(Hydrangeaceae)Endemic to East China and South Japan[D].Hangzhou:Zhejiang University,2013.
[4]李国庆,刘长成,刘玉国,等.物种分布模型理论研究进展[J].生态学报,2013,33(16):4827-4835.LI Guoqing,LIU Changcheng,LIU Yuguo,et al.Advances in theoretical issues of species distribution models[J].Acta Ecol Sin,2013,33(16):4827-4835.
[5]许仲林,彭焕华,彭守璋.物种分布模型的发展及评价方法[J].生态学报,2015,35(2):557-567.XU Zhonglin,PENG Huanhua,PENG Shouzhang.The development and evaluation of species distribution models[J]Acta Ecol Sin,2015,35(2):557-567.
[6]陆建忠,翁恩生,吴晓雯,等.加拿大一枝黄花在中国的潜在入侵区预测[J].植物分类学报,2007,45(5):670-674.LU Jianzhong,WENG Ensheng,WU Xiaowen,et al.Potential distribution of Colidago canadensis in China[J].Acta Phytotaxon Sin,2007,45(5):670-674.
[7]张海涛,罗渡,牟希东,等.应用多个生态位模型预测福寿螺在中国的潜在适生区[J].应用生态学报,2016,27(4):1227-1284.ZHANG Haitao,LUO Du,MU Xidong,et al.Predicting the potential suitable distribution area of the apple snail Pomacea canaliculata in China based on multiple ecological niche models[J].Chin J Appl Ecol,2016,27(4):1277-1284.
[8]龚维,夏青,陈红锋,等.珍稀濒危植物伯乐树的潜在适生区预测[J].华南农业大学学报,2015,36(4):98-104.GONG Wei,XIA Qing,CHEN Hongfeng,et al.Prediction of potential distributions of Bretschneidera sinensis,an rare and endangered plant species in China[J].J South China Agric Univ,2015,36(4):98-104.
[9]高蓓,卫海燕,郭彦龙,等.应用GIS和最大熵模型分析秦岭冷杉潜在地理分布[J].生态学杂志,2015,34(3):843-852.GAO Bei,WEI Haiyan,GUO Yanlong,et al.Using GIS and MaxEnt to analyze the potential distribution of Abies chensiensis[J].Chin J Ecol,2015,34(3):843-852.
[10]马松梅,聂迎彬,段霞,等.蒙古扁桃植物的潜在地理分布及居群保护优先性[J].生态学报,2015,35(9):2960-2966.MA Songmei,NIE Yingbin,DUAN Xia,et al.The potential distribution and population protection priority of Amygdalus mongolica[J].Acta Ecol Sin,2015,35(9):2960-2966.
[11]张兴旺,李垚,方炎明.麻栎在中国的地理分布及潜在分布区预测[J].西北植物学报,2014,34(8):1685-1692.ZHANG Xingwang,LI Yao,FANG Yanming.Geographical distribution and prediction of potential ranges of Quercus acutissima in China[J].Acta Bot Boreal-Occident Sin,2014,34(8):1685-1692.
[12]王刚,孟艳琼,孙婧,等.麻花杜鹃的地理分布模拟[J].西北农林科技大学学报(自然科学版),2013,41(5):173-177.WANG Gang,MENG Yanqiong,SUN Jing,et al.Modeling the geographic distribution of Rhododendron maculiferum[J].J Northwest A&F Univ Nat Sci Ed,2013,41(5):173-177.
[13]王娟,倪健.中国北方温带地区5种锦鸡儿植物的分布模拟[J].植物生态学报,2009,33(1):12-24.WANG Juan,NI Jian.Modeling the distribution of five Caragana species in temperate northern China[J].Chin JPlant Ecol,2009,33(1):12-24.
[14]徐晓婷,杨永,王利松.白豆杉的地理分布及潜在分布区估计[J].植物生态学报,2008,32(5):1134-1145.XU Xiaoting,YANG Yong,WANG Lisong.Geographic distribution and potential distribution estimation of Pseudotaxus chienii[J].Chin J Plant Ecol,2008,32(5):1134-1145.
[15]李垚,张兴旺,方炎明.气候变暖对中国栓皮栎地理分布格局影响的预测[J].应用生态学报,2014,25(12):3381-3389.LI Yao,ZHANG Xingwang,FANG Yanming.Predicting the impact of global warming on the geographical distribution pattern of Quercus variabilis in China[J].Chin J Appl Ecol,2014,25(12):3381-3389.
[16]乐新贵,谭策铭,李林海,等.贵溪市阳际峰自然保护区新发现成片蛛网萼群落[J].江西林业科技,2008(4):42-43.LE Xingui,TAN Ceming,LI Linhai,et al.New discovery on flaky community of Platycrater arguta of Yangjifeng Nature Reserve in Guixi City,Jiangxi,China[J].J Jiangxi For Sci Technol,2008(4):42-43.
[17]陶晓瑜.东亚特有濒危植物蛛网萼的遗传多样性与亲缘地理学研究[D].杭州:浙江大学,2008.TAO Xiaoyu.Genetic Diversity and Phylogeography of Genus Platycrater(Hydrangeaceae)Endemic to East China and South Japan[D].Hangzhou:Zhejiang University,2008.
[18]GOVINDASAMY B,DUFFY P B,COQUARD J.High-resolution simulations of global climate,part 2:effects of increased greenhouse cases[J].Clim Dynam,2003,21(5/6):391-404.
[19]BUSBY J R.BIOCLIM:a bioclimate analysis and prediction system[J].Plant Protect Quart,1991,6(1):64-68.
[20]CARPENTER G,GILLISON A N,WINTER J.DOMAIN:a flexible modelling procedure for mapping potential distributions of plants and animals[J].Biodiv Conserv,1993,2(6):667-680.
[21]曹向锋,钱国良,胡白石,等.采用生态位模型预测黄顶菊在中国的潜在适生区[J].应用生态学报,2010,21(12):3063-3069.CAO Xiangfeng,QIAN Guoliang,HU Baishi,et al.Prediction of potential suitable distribution area of Flaveria bidentis in China based on niche models[J].Chin J Appl Ecol,2010,21(12):3063-3069.
[22]RAES N,ter STEEGE H.A null-model for significance testing of presence-only species distribution models[J]Ecography,2007,30(5):727-736.
[23]CHEN Pingfu,WILEY E O,MCNYSET K M.Ecological niche modeling as a predictive tool:silver and bighead carps in North America[J].Biol Invas,2007,9(1):43-51.
[24]张丽芳,裘利洪.蛛网萼开花物候、花部特征及繁育系统研究[J].广西植物,2017,37(10):1301-1311.ZHANG Lifang,QIU Lihong.Flowering phenology,floral traits and breeding system of Platycrater arguta[J].Guihaia,2017,37(10):1301-1311.
[25]张丽芳,林昌勇,俞群,等.珍稀濒危植物蛛网萼的种子形态及萌发特性[J].江西农业大学学报,2015,37(3):497-503.ZHANG Lifang,LIN Changyong,YU Qun,et al.The morphological structure and germination characters of seed of rare and endangered species Platycrater arguta[J].Acta Agric Univ Jiangxi.2015,37(3):497-503.
[26]朱耿平,刘国卿,卜文俊,等.生态位模型的基本原理及其在生物多样性保护中的应用[J].生物多样性,2013,21(1):90-98.ZHU Gengping,LIU Guoqing,BU Wenjun,et al.Ecological niche modeling and its applications in biodiversity conservation[J].Biodivers Sci,2013,21(1):90-98.
[27]朱弘,尤禄祥,李涌福,等.浙闽樱桃地理分布模拟及气候限制因子分析[J].热带亚热带植物学报,2017,25(4):315-322.ZHU Hong,YOU Luxiang,LI Yongfu,et al.Modeling the geographical distribution pattern and climatic limited factors of Cerasus schneideriana[J].J Trop SubtropBot,2017,25(4):315-322.
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