大连市生态脆弱性评价及其不确定性分析
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摘要
[目的]分析大连市生态脆弱性总体结果和空间分布特征,并识别分析评价体系的敏感性特征。[方法]基于生态敏感性—生态恢复力—生态压力度(SRP模型)构建城市生态脆弱性指标体系评估模型;采用OAT(one-at-a-time)方法评估指标权重不确定性下的结果变异程度。[结果]大连市极度脆弱、重度脆弱、中度脆弱、轻度脆弱、微度脆弱5个等级面积比例分别是4.17%,22.97%,41.00%,23.69%,8.16%;脆弱性最高的地区位于市中心及甘井子区东部,脆弱性最低的地区位于大连市北部地区、甘井子区与旅顺区交界处。土壤有机碳含量指标对结果影响最大,区域绝对平均变化率的最大值及最大像元变化率分别为11.49%和17.27%。[结论]大连市整体生态脆弱性处于中等脆弱水平,对于土壤有机碳含量指标权重应慎重考虑以减少评估结果不确定性。
[Objective] The objectives of the study were to analyze the overall spatial distribution characteristics of the ecological vulnerability of Dalian City and identify the sensitivity characteristics of the evaluation index system. [Methods] We constructed an urban ecological vulnerability index system based on sensitivity-recovery-pressure model(SRP), and the one-at-a-time method(OAT) was used to estimate the sensitivity of results under uncertainty of index weights. [Results] The vulnerability of Dalian City was classified into five levels: extreme vulnerability, high vulnerability, moderate vulnerability, light vulnerability and slight vulnerability, with an area proportion of 4.17%, 22.97%, 41.00%, 23.69%, and 8.16%, respectively. The areas with the highest vulnerability distributed in the city center and the east area of Ganjingzi District, while areas with the lowest vulnerability distributed in the northern part of Dalian and the junction of Ganjingzi District and Lushun District. The soil organic carbon showed the greatest impact on the evaluation results. The maximum absolute average change rate and the maximum pixel change rate was 11.49% and 17.27%, respectively. [Conclusion] The overall ecological vulnerability of Dalian City is at a moderate vulnerability level. The weight of soil organic carbon index should be carefully considered to reduce the uncertainty of evaluation results.
[Objective] The objectives of the study were to analyze the overall spatial distribution characteristics of the ecological vulnerability of Dalian City and identify the sensitivity characteristics of the evaluation index system. [Methods] We constructed an urban ecological vulnerability index system based on sensitivity-recovery-pressure model(SRP), and the one-at-a-time method(OAT) was used to estimate the sensitivity of results under uncertainty of index weights. [Results] The vulnerability of Dalian City was classified into five levels: extreme vulnerability, high vulnerability, moderate vulnerability, light vulnerability and slight vulnerability, with an area proportion of 4.17%, 22.97%, 41.00%, 23.69%, and 8.16%, respectively. The areas with the highest vulnerability distributed in the city center and the east area of Ganjingzi District, while areas with the lowest vulnerability distributed in the northern part of Dalian and the junction of Ganjingzi District and Lushun District. The soil organic carbon showed the greatest impact on the evaluation results. The maximum absolute average change rate and the maximum pixel change rate was 11.49% and 17.27%, respectively. [Conclusion] The overall ecological vulnerability of Dalian City is at a moderate vulnerability level. The weight of soil organic carbon index should be carefully considered to reduce the uncertainty of evaluation results.
引文
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[22] 蒋玉玲,张戈.大连市地质灾害评价研究[J].国土与自然资源研究,2018(2):13-18.
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[24] 黄耀欢,江东,付晶莹.中国公里网格GDP分布数据集[DB/OL].全球变化科学研究数据出版系统,2014.DOI:10.3974/geodb.2014.01.07.V1.
[25] 郭宾,周忠发,苏维词,等.基于格网GIS的喀斯特山区草地生态脆弱性评价[J].水土保持通报,2014,34(2):204-207.
[26] Chen Yun,Yu Jia,Khan S.Spatial sensitivity analysis of multi-criteria weights in GIS-based land suitability evaluation[J].Environmental Modelling & Software,2010,25(12):1582-1591.
[27] Xu Erqi,Zhang Hongqi.Spatially-explicit sensitivity analysis for land suitability evaluation[J].Applied Geography,2013,45:1-9.
[28] 赵小娟,叶云,周晋皓,等.珠三角丘陵区耕地质量综合评价及指标权重敏感性分析[J].农业工程学报,2017,33(8):226-235.
[29] 黎敏.耦合系统下的城市脆弱性评价研究[D].辽宁大连:辽宁师范大学,2018.
[2] Thiault L,Marshall P,Gelcich S,et al.Mapping social-ecological vulnerability to inform local decision making[J].Conservation Biology,2018,32(2):447-456.
[3] Dzoga M,Simatele D,Munga C.Assessment of ecological vulnerability to climate variability on coastal fishing communities:A study of Ungwana Bay and Lower Tana Estuary,Kenya[J].Ocean & Coastal Management,2018,163:437-444.
[4] 徐君,李贵芳,王育红.生态脆弱性国内外研究综述与展望[J].华东经济管理,2016,30(4):149-162.
[5] 田亚平,常昊.中国生态脆弱性研究进展的文献计量分析[J].地理学报,2012,67(11):1515-1525.
[6] Xue Lianqing,Wang Jing,Zhang Luochen,et al.Spatiotemporal analysis of ecological vulnerability and management in the Tarim River Basin,China[J].Science of the Total Enviroment,2019,649:876-888.
[7] 魏晓旭,赵军,魏伟,等.中国县域单元生态脆弱性时空变化研究[J].环境科学学报,2016,36(2):726-739.
[8] 张莹,张学玲,蔡海生.基于地理探测器的江西省万安县生态脆弱性时空演变及驱动力分析[J].水土保持通报,2018,38(4):207-214.
[9] 邓伟,袁兴中,孙荣,等.基于遥感的北方农牧交错带生态脆弱性评价[J].环境科学与技术,2016,39(11):174-181.
[10] 孙平军,修春亮,王忠芝.基于PSE模型的矿业城市生态脆弱性的变化研究:以辽宁阜新为例[J].经济地理,2010,30(8):1354-1359.
[11] He Li,Shen Jing,Zhang Yang.Ecological vulnerability assessment for ecological conservation and environmental management[J].Journal of Environmental Management,2018,206:1115-1125.
[12] 冉圣宏,金建君,薛纪渝.脆弱生态区评价的理论与方法[J].自然资源学报,2002,17(1):117-122.
[13] 付博,姜琦刚,任春颖,等.基于神经网络方法的湿地生态脆弱性评价[J].东北师大学报:自然科学版,2011,43(1):139-143.
[14] 封建民,郭玲霞,李晓华.基于景观格局的陕北资源富集区生态脆弱性评价:以陕西省神木县为例[J].水土保持通报,2015,35(4):271-276.
[15] Song Guobao,Chen Yu,Tian Meirong,et al.The Ecological Vulnerability Evaluation in Southwestern Mountain Region of China Based on GIS and AHP Method[J].Procedia Environmental Sciences,2010(2):465-475.
[16] 齐姗姗,巩杰,钱彩云,等.基于SRP模型的甘肃省白龙江流域生态环境脆弱性评价[J].水土保持通报,2017,37(1):224-228.
[17] 马骏,李昌晓,魏虹,等.三峡库区生态脆弱性评价[J].生态学报,2015,35(21):7117-7129.
[18] 李永化,范强,王雪,等.基于SRP模型的自然灾害多发区生态脆弱性时空分异研究:以辽宁省朝阳县为例[J].地理科学,2015,35(11):1452-1459.
[19] 王军邦,王居午,叶辉,等.2000—2012年全国气温和降水1 km网格空间插值数据集[J].中国科学数据,2017,2(1):73-80.
[20] 王耕,韩冬雪.1964—2014年大连市降雨侵蚀力时空演变分析[J].中国水土保持,2017(11):54-56,67.
[21] 赵国卫,赵大庆,大连市气象志编纂委员会.大连市气象志[M].北京:气象出版社,2014:109-151.
[22] 蒋玉玲,张戈.大连市地质灾害评价研究[J].国土与自然资源研究,2018(2):13-18.
[23] 付晶莹,江东,黄耀欢.中国公里网格人口分布数据集[DB/OL].全球变化科学研究数据出版系统,2014.DOI:10.3974/geodb.2014.01.06.V1.
[24] 黄耀欢,江东,付晶莹.中国公里网格GDP分布数据集[DB/OL].全球变化科学研究数据出版系统,2014.DOI:10.3974/geodb.2014.01.07.V1.
[25] 郭宾,周忠发,苏维词,等.基于格网GIS的喀斯特山区草地生态脆弱性评价[J].水土保持通报,2014,34(2):204-207.
[26] Chen Yun,Yu Jia,Khan S.Spatial sensitivity analysis of multi-criteria weights in GIS-based land suitability evaluation[J].Environmental Modelling & Software,2010,25(12):1582-1591.
[27] Xu Erqi,Zhang Hongqi.Spatially-explicit sensitivity analysis for land suitability evaluation[J].Applied Geography,2013,45:1-9.
[28] 赵小娟,叶云,周晋皓,等.珠三角丘陵区耕地质量综合评价及指标权重敏感性分析[J].农业工程学报,2017,33(8):226-235.
[29] 黎敏.耦合系统下的城市脆弱性评价研究[D].辽宁大连:辽宁师范大学,2018.
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