“二调”以来湖北省耕地变化的时空特征及其驱动因子识别
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摘要
为了识别耕地动态变化特征与驱动机制,基于湖北省第二次土地调查以来的土地利用数据,从省域、县域与地块3个尺度,系统分析了2009—2016年湖北省耕地变化的数量和景观格局特征,运用回归分析定量识别了驱动耕地变化的主要因子。结果表明:(1)湖北省耕地面积呈现出不断下降的趋势,耕地与其他地类之间的转换关系复杂而频繁,城乡建设用地整治已成为耕地补充的重要来源;(2)湖北省大部分地区的耕地斑块密度都呈现出小幅增长的态势,耕地斑块平均规模有下降趋势,耕地斑块形状趋于复杂化,耕地破碎化程度趋于严重。(3) 2009—2016年,经济驱动因素对湖北省耕地变化的作用明显,尤以人均GDP的影响最为显著,而自然因素对耕地变化的影响作用相对较小。研究将为统筹耕地资源保护与社会经济发展动态关系,制定区域差异化的耕地资源保护策略提供决策思考。
In order to analyze the dynamic change and its driving forces of cultivated land, the change features of cultivated land in quantity and landscape pattern from provincial, county, and land parcel levels in Hubei Province are analyzed, and the driving factors affecting the change of cultivated land are identified using the regression analysis. The research data are obtained from annual land-use data since the second land resource survey from 2009 to 2016. The results showed that there was a continuous quantity decline of cultivated land, which had a complex transfer relationship with other land-use types. Urban-rural construction land consolidation was an important way to increase cultivated land. Patch density of cultivated land showed a slight increase in most areas of Hubei Province, and the corresponding patch shape was more complex. The fragmentation of cultivated land was becoming more serious. The economic factors had the direct influence on cultivated land change, and the influence of per capital income was the most significant, whereas physical factors had less influence on the change. This study can provide important information for coordinating the dynamic relations between cultivated land protection and socioeconomic development, and formulating regional differentiation strategies for cultivated land protection.
In order to analyze the dynamic change and its driving forces of cultivated land, the change features of cultivated land in quantity and landscape pattern from provincial, county, and land parcel levels in Hubei Province are analyzed, and the driving factors affecting the change of cultivated land are identified using the regression analysis. The research data are obtained from annual land-use data since the second land resource survey from 2009 to 2016. The results showed that there was a continuous quantity decline of cultivated land, which had a complex transfer relationship with other land-use types. Urban-rural construction land consolidation was an important way to increase cultivated land. Patch density of cultivated land showed a slight increase in most areas of Hubei Province, and the corresponding patch shape was more complex. The fragmentation of cultivated land was becoming more serious. The economic factors had the direct influence on cultivated land change, and the influence of per capital income was the most significant, whereas physical factors had less influence on the change. This study can provide important information for coordinating the dynamic relations between cultivated land protection and socioeconomic development, and formulating regional differentiation strategies for cultivated land protection.
引文
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[20] 戈大专,龙花楼,杨忍.中国耕地利用转型格局及驱动因素研究:基于人均耕地面积视角[J].资源科学,2018,40(2):273-283.
[21] 王国刚,刘彦随,陈秧分.中国省域耕地集约利用态势与驱动力分析[J].地理学报,2014,69(7):907-915.
[22] 王伟,谷伟哲,翟俊.城市轨道交通对土地资源空间价值影响[J].城市发展研究,2014,21(6):117-124.
[23] 陈永桃,陈英,马婷婷.农民农地产权认知的影响因素分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2017,31(2):25-31.
[2] Arowolo A,Deng X.Land use/land cover change and statistical modelling of cultivated land change drivers in Nigeria [J].Regional Environmental Change,2018,18(S1):247-259.
[3] Xu X,Wang L,Cai H,et al.The influences of spatiotemporal change of cultivated land on food crop production potential in China [J].Food Security,2017,9(3):485-495.
[4] Sylvia T,Günther F,Martin B,et al.Our common cropland:Quantifying global agricultural land use from a consumption perspective [J].Ecological Economics,2019,157:332-341.
[5] 张丽娟,姚子艳,唐世浩,等.20世纪80年代以来全球耕地变化的基本特征及空间格局[J].地理学报,2017,72(7):1235-1247.
[6] 祖健,郝晋珉,陈丽,等.耕地数量、质量、生态三位一体保护内涵及路径探析[J].中国农业大学学报,2018,23(7):84-95.
[7] 张国平,刘纪远,张增祥.近10年来中国耕地资源的时空变化分析[J].2003,58(3):323-332.
[8] 宋伟.1998—2007年中国耕地数量及其结构变化研究[J].经济地理,2011,31(10):1698-1702.
[9] 卫新东,王筛妮,员学锋,等.陕西省耕地质量时空变化特征及其分异规律[J].农业工程学报,2018,34(3):240-248.
[10] 陈朝,吕昌河.基于综合指数的湖北省耕地质量变化分析[J].自然资源学报,2010,25(12):2018-2029.
[11] Song W,Liu M.Farmland conversion decreasing regional and national land quality in China [J].Land Degradation and Development,2017,28(2):459-471.
[12] 孔静静,魏建新.乌鲁木齐市近16年建设用地和耕地变化驱动力比较分析[J].水土保持研究,2014,21(4):101-106.
[13] 张英男,龙花楼,戈大专,等.黄淮海平原耕地功能演变的时空特征及其驱动机制[J].地理学报,2018,73(3):518-534.
[14] 方莹,王静,孔雪松,等.耕地利用多功能权衡关系测度与分区优化:以河南省为例[J].中国土地科学,2018,32(11):57-64.
[15] 宋小青,欧阳竹.耕地多功能内涵及其对耕地保护的启示[J].地理科学进展,2012,31(7):859-868.
[16] 李明薇,陈伟强,郧雨旱,等.基于投影寻踪模型的河南省耕地生态安全评价[J].水土保持研究,2018,25(4):257-263.
[17] 孔雪松,刘艳芳,常旭.基于GIS的城镇用地空间演化与景观特征分析[J].经济地理,2012,32(4):67-71.
[18] 赵锐锋,王福红,张丽华,等.黑河中游地区耕地景观演变及社会经济驱动力分析[J].地理科学,2017,37(6):920-928.
[19] 陈肖飞,姚士谋,张落成.1990年以来长江三角洲耕地资源变化及驱动因子研究[J].长江流域资源与环境,2015,24(9):1521-1527.
[20] 戈大专,龙花楼,杨忍.中国耕地利用转型格局及驱动因素研究:基于人均耕地面积视角[J].资源科学,2018,40(2):273-283.
[21] 王国刚,刘彦随,陈秧分.中国省域耕地集约利用态势与驱动力分析[J].地理学报,2014,69(7):907-915.
[22] 王伟,谷伟哲,翟俊.城市轨道交通对土地资源空间价值影响[J].城市发展研究,2014,21(6):117-124.
[23] 陈永桃,陈英,马婷婷.农民农地产权认知的影响因素分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2017,31(2):25-31.
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