基于Logistic回归模型的内蒙古多伦县土地沙漠化驱动力分析
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摘要
以内蒙古多伦县1960、1975、1987、1995、2000、2005年的土地沙漠化矢量数据及2010年2015年的遥感影像、地形图为主要数据来源,运用NEVI5. 0和ArcGIS10. 2软件提取8个时期土地沙漠化空间信息,划分为轻度沙漠化、中度沙漠化、重度沙漠化、严重沙漠化等不同类型进行时空分异特征分析。通过选取海拔高程、年均气温、降水量、平均风速、牲畜数量、第一产业、居民点距离等统计数据,运用Logistic回归模型定量分析了土地沙漠化动力机制,为京津风沙源区防治土地沙漠化,改善生态环境提供科学理论依据。结果表明:1960—2015年间多伦县土地沙漠化面积呈减少趋势,其中1960—1995年间呈发展趋势,1995—2015年间呈减少趋势; 1960—1995年间各类土地沙漠化增长的主导因子是第一产业和居民点距离;而在1995—2015年间影响各类土地沙漠化的主导因子是降水量、牲畜数量、第一产业和居民点距离。未来将继续控制牲畜数量、实施土地沙漠化治理政策来逆转土地沙漠化发展。
Taking the desertification vector data of 1960,1975,1987,1995,2000 and 2005 in Duolun County of Inner Mongolia,China and the remote sensing images and topographic maps of 2010 in 2010 as the main data sources,using ENVI5. 0 and ArcGIS10. 2 software to extract the spatial information of desertification in 8 periods,the characteristics of desertification in different desertification types such as mild desertification,moderate desertification,heavy desertification and severe desertification were analyzed in spatial and temporal differences. Duolun County is located in the desert and steppe transitional zone,ecological background is more fragile,agricultural production conditions change more frequently,and the process of desertification induced by human factors at a high level of intensity for nearly half a century. According to the actual situation of the study area,statistical data such as elevation,average annual temperature,precipitation,average wind speed,number of livestock,primary industry and residential area were selected. Logistic regression model was used to analyze quantitatively the dynamic mechanism of desertification. The results showed that the area of desertification in Duolun County decreased from 1960 to 2015,with a tendency of increasing from 1960 to 1995 and a decreasing trend from 1995 to 2015. The dominant factor to various types of desertification growth from 1960 to 1995 was primary idustry and residential areas; and in 1995—2015 the dominant factor affecting various types of land desertification was precipitation,livestock,primary industry and residential distance. In the future,we will continue to control the number of livestock and implement the policy of desertification control to reverse the development of land desertification.
Taking the desertification vector data of 1960,1975,1987,1995,2000 and 2005 in Duolun County of Inner Mongolia,China and the remote sensing images and topographic maps of 2010 in 2010 as the main data sources,using ENVI5. 0 and ArcGIS10. 2 software to extract the spatial information of desertification in 8 periods,the characteristics of desertification in different desertification types such as mild desertification,moderate desertification,heavy desertification and severe desertification were analyzed in spatial and temporal differences. Duolun County is located in the desert and steppe transitional zone,ecological background is more fragile,agricultural production conditions change more frequently,and the process of desertification induced by human factors at a high level of intensity for nearly half a century. According to the actual situation of the study area,statistical data such as elevation,average annual temperature,precipitation,average wind speed,number of livestock,primary industry and residential area were selected. Logistic regression model was used to analyze quantitatively the dynamic mechanism of desertification. The results showed that the area of desertification in Duolun County decreased from 1960 to 2015,with a tendency of increasing from 1960 to 1995 and a decreasing trend from 1995 to 2015. The dominant factor to various types of desertification growth from 1960 to 1995 was primary idustry and residential areas; and in 1995—2015 the dominant factor affecting various types of land desertification was precipitation,livestock,primary industry and residential distance. In the future,we will continue to control the number of livestock and implement the policy of desertification control to reverse the development of land desertification.
引文
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[7] CARROLL C,MERTON L,BURGER P. Impact of vegetation cover and slope on runoff,erosion,and water quality for field plots on a range of soil and water quality for field plots on a range of soil and spoil materials on central Queensland coalmines[J]. Australian Journal of Soil Research,2000,38(2):313-327.
[8]康相武,吴绍洪,刘雪华.浑善达克沙地土地沙漠化时空演变规律研究[J].水土保持学报,2009,23(1):1-6.[KANG Xiangwu,WU Shaohong,LIU Xuehua. Research on spatio-temporal change of sandy desertification in Hunshandake[J]. Journal of Soil and Water Conservation,2009,23(1):1-6.]
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[11] ROLAND G,MOHAMMAD I. Assessment of rangeland degradation and development of a strategy for rehabilitation[J]. Remote Sensing of Environment,2004,90(4):490-504.
[12]马永欢,周立华,朱艳玲,等.近50年来盐池县土地沙漠化驱动因素的时间变化[J].干旱区研究,2009,26(2):249-253.[MA Yonghuan,ZHOU Lihua,ZHU Yanling,et al. Time series variation in the driving factors leading to land desertification in Yanchi County over the last 50 years[J]. Arid Zone Research,2009,26(2):249-253.]
[13]阿如旱,扬持.内蒙古多伦县沙漠化驱动因素影响的累加效应分析[J].中国沙漠,2007,27(6):936-941.[Aruhan,YANG Chi. Cumulative impacts of driving factors on desertification in Duolun country of Inner Mongolia[J]. Journal of Desert Research,2007,27(6):936-941.]
[14]于宝乐,吴文俊,赵学军,等.内蒙古京津风沙源治理工程土壤风蚀控制效益研究[J].干旱区研究,2016,6(33):1278-1286.[YU Baole,WU Wenjun,ZHAO Xuejun,et al. Benefits of soil wind erosion control of the Beijing-Tianjin Sand Source Control Project in Inner Mongolia[J]. Arid Zone Research,2016,6(33):1278-1286.]
[15]阿如旱.近50 a京津沙源边缘区土地沙漠化时空变化规律及其发展态势研究[D].呼和浩特:内蒙古大学,2007.[Aruhan.Study on temporal and spatial variation of land desertification and its development trend in the fringe of Beijing-Tianjin[D]. Hohhot:Inner Mongolia University,2007.]
[16]王涛,吴嶶,薛娴,等.近50年来中国北方沙漠化土地的时空变化[J].地理学报,2004,59(2):203-212.[WANG Tao,WU Wei,XUE Xian. Spatial-temporal changes of sandy desertified land during last 5 decades in northern China[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica,2004,59(2):203-212.]
[17]阿如旱,扬持.内蒙古多伦县土地沙漠化景观格局变化特征[J].应用生态学报,2007,18(11):2520-2525.[Aruhan,YANG Chi. Dynamic changes of land scape pattern during desertification in Duolun County of Inner Mongolia[J]. Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology,2007,18(11):2520-2525.]
[18]常学礼,王玮,韩艳,等.祁连山中部素珠链峰地区冰川斑块动态分析[J].自然资源学报,2013,28(2):266-276.[CHANG Xueli,WANG Wei,HAN Yan. Glacier patch dynamics in the Suzulian Peak area of the middle Qilian Mountains[J]. Journal of Natural Resources,2013,28(2):266-276.]
[19] HOSMER D W,LEMESHOW S. Applied logistic regression[M].2nded. New York:John Wiley and Sons,2000:156-164.
[20]王济川,郭志刚. Logistic回归模型:方法与应用[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2001.[WANG Jichuan,GUO Zhigang. Logistic regression model:Methods and applications[M]. Beijing:Higher Education Press,2001.]
[21]谢花林,李波.基于Logistic回归模型的农牧交错区土地利用变化驱动力分析[J].地理研究,2008,27(2):294-304.[XIE Hualin,LI Bo. Driving forces analysis of land-use pattern changes based on Logistic regression model in the farming-pastoral zone[J]. Geographical Research,2008,27(2):294-304.]
[22]姜广辉,张凤荣.基于Logistic回归模型的北京山区农村居民点距离变化的驱动力分析[J].农业工程学报,2007,23(5):81-87.[JIANG Guanhui,ZHANG Fengrong. Analysis of the driving forces of change of rural residential areas in Beijing mountainous areas based on Logistic regression model[J]. Transactions of the CSAE,2007,23(5):81-87.]
[23]阿如旱,车敏.近60年多伦县气候特征变化分析[J].内蒙古师范大学学报(自然科学汉文版),2017,46(3):426-430.[Aruhan,CHE Min. Analysis on the characteristics of climate change in recent 60 years in Duolun County of Inner Mongolia[J].Journal of Inner Mongolia Normal University(Natural Science Edition). 2017,46(3):426-430.]
[24]高晓霞,温璐,刘华民,等.基于Logistic回归模型的浑善达克沙地动态及其驱动力分析[J].内蒙古大学学报(自然科学版),2016,47(6):625-634.[GAO Xiaoxia,WEN Lu,LIU Huamin,et al. Dynamics changes and driving forces analysis of Otindag sandy land based on Logistic regression model[J]. Journal of Inner Mongolia University(Natural Science Edition),2016,47(6):625-634.]
[25]丁文广,耿怡颖,张慧琳,等.近40 a海西蒙古族藏族自治州沙漠化时空变化及驱动力分析[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2017,11(3):1-8.[DING Wenguang,GENG Yiying,ZHANG Huilin,et al. Analysis on spatial-temporal evolution of desertification and its driving force over Haixi Mongolian and Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture in recent 40 years[J]. Desert and Oasis Meteorology,2017,11(3):1-8.]
[2]张建香,张多勇,刘万锋,等.基于ESAI的黄土高原荒漠化风险评估[J].水土保持通报,2017,2(37):339-344.[ZHANG Jianxiang,ZHANG Duoyong,LIU Wanfeng,et al. ESAI based assessment of desertification risk in Loess Plateau[J]. Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation,2017,2(37):339-344.]
[3]吴亚平,潘高峰,彭尔兴,等.锡北地方铁路风沙防治措施研究[J].干旱区地理,2016,39(6):1247-1254.[WU Yaping,PAN Gaofeng,PENG Erxing,et al. Sand flow control measures of the Xitieshan to North Hobson local railway[J]. Arid Land Geography,2016,39(6):1247-1254.]
[4]王涛.荒漠化治理中生态系统、社会经济系统协调发展问题探析——以中国北方半干旱荒漠区沙漠化防治为例[J].生态学报,2016,22(36):7045-7048.[WANG Tao. Study on the coordinated development of ecosystem and socio-economic system in desertification control:A case study of desertification control in semiarid area in North China[J]. Acta Ecologica Sinica. 2016,22(36):7045-7048.]
[5]王娅,周立华,魏轩.基于社会-生态系统的沙漠化逆转过程脆弱性评价指标体系[J].生态学报,2018,38(3):1-12.[WANG Ya,ZHOU Lihua,WEI Xuan,et al. An evaluation index system of vulnerability of the desertification reversion process based on the socio-ecological systems theory[J]. Acta Ecologica Sinica,2018,38(2):1-12.]
[6]丁文广,陈利珍,李丹璐,等. 1975—2014年晋西北地区沙漠化动态变化趋势研究[J].干旱区地理,2016,39(5):994-1003.[DING Wenguang,CHNE Lizhen,LI Danlu,et al. Dynamic change trend of desertification in northwest Shanxi Province during1975—2014[J]. Arid Land Geography,2016,39(5):994-1003.]
[7] CARROLL C,MERTON L,BURGER P. Impact of vegetation cover and slope on runoff,erosion,and water quality for field plots on a range of soil and water quality for field plots on a range of soil and spoil materials on central Queensland coalmines[J]. Australian Journal of Soil Research,2000,38(2):313-327.
[8]康相武,吴绍洪,刘雪华.浑善达克沙地土地沙漠化时空演变规律研究[J].水土保持学报,2009,23(1):1-6.[KANG Xiangwu,WU Shaohong,LIU Xuehua. Research on spatio-temporal change of sandy desertification in Hunshandake[J]. Journal of Soil and Water Conservation,2009,23(1):1-6.]
[9]王涛.中国沙漠与沙漠化[M].石家庄:河北科学技术出版社,2003:16.[WANG Tao. Desert and aeolian desertification in China[M]. Shijiazhuang:Hebei Science and Technology Press,2003:16.]
[10]张莉秋,张红,李皎,等.晋北沙漠化地区1980—2014年的气候变化[J].中国沙漠,2016,36(4):1116-1125.[ZHANG Liqiu,ZHANG Hong,LI Jiao,et al. Climate change in sandy desertification area of the Northern Shanxi from 1980 to 2014[J]. Journal of Desert Research,2016,36(4):1116-1125.]
[11] ROLAND G,MOHAMMAD I. Assessment of rangeland degradation and development of a strategy for rehabilitation[J]. Remote Sensing of Environment,2004,90(4):490-504.
[12]马永欢,周立华,朱艳玲,等.近50年来盐池县土地沙漠化驱动因素的时间变化[J].干旱区研究,2009,26(2):249-253.[MA Yonghuan,ZHOU Lihua,ZHU Yanling,et al. Time series variation in the driving factors leading to land desertification in Yanchi County over the last 50 years[J]. Arid Zone Research,2009,26(2):249-253.]
[13]阿如旱,扬持.内蒙古多伦县沙漠化驱动因素影响的累加效应分析[J].中国沙漠,2007,27(6):936-941.[Aruhan,YANG Chi. Cumulative impacts of driving factors on desertification in Duolun country of Inner Mongolia[J]. Journal of Desert Research,2007,27(6):936-941.]
[14]于宝乐,吴文俊,赵学军,等.内蒙古京津风沙源治理工程土壤风蚀控制效益研究[J].干旱区研究,2016,6(33):1278-1286.[YU Baole,WU Wenjun,ZHAO Xuejun,et al. Benefits of soil wind erosion control of the Beijing-Tianjin Sand Source Control Project in Inner Mongolia[J]. Arid Zone Research,2016,6(33):1278-1286.]
[15]阿如旱.近50 a京津沙源边缘区土地沙漠化时空变化规律及其发展态势研究[D].呼和浩特:内蒙古大学,2007.[Aruhan.Study on temporal and spatial variation of land desertification and its development trend in the fringe of Beijing-Tianjin[D]. Hohhot:Inner Mongolia University,2007.]
[16]王涛,吴嶶,薛娴,等.近50年来中国北方沙漠化土地的时空变化[J].地理学报,2004,59(2):203-212.[WANG Tao,WU Wei,XUE Xian. Spatial-temporal changes of sandy desertified land during last 5 decades in northern China[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica,2004,59(2):203-212.]
[17]阿如旱,扬持.内蒙古多伦县土地沙漠化景观格局变化特征[J].应用生态学报,2007,18(11):2520-2525.[Aruhan,YANG Chi. Dynamic changes of land scape pattern during desertification in Duolun County of Inner Mongolia[J]. Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology,2007,18(11):2520-2525.]
[18]常学礼,王玮,韩艳,等.祁连山中部素珠链峰地区冰川斑块动态分析[J].自然资源学报,2013,28(2):266-276.[CHANG Xueli,WANG Wei,HAN Yan. Glacier patch dynamics in the Suzulian Peak area of the middle Qilian Mountains[J]. Journal of Natural Resources,2013,28(2):266-276.]
[19] HOSMER D W,LEMESHOW S. Applied logistic regression[M].2nded. New York:John Wiley and Sons,2000:156-164.
[20]王济川,郭志刚. Logistic回归模型:方法与应用[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2001.[WANG Jichuan,GUO Zhigang. Logistic regression model:Methods and applications[M]. Beijing:Higher Education Press,2001.]
[21]谢花林,李波.基于Logistic回归模型的农牧交错区土地利用变化驱动力分析[J].地理研究,2008,27(2):294-304.[XIE Hualin,LI Bo. Driving forces analysis of land-use pattern changes based on Logistic regression model in the farming-pastoral zone[J]. Geographical Research,2008,27(2):294-304.]
[22]姜广辉,张凤荣.基于Logistic回归模型的北京山区农村居民点距离变化的驱动力分析[J].农业工程学报,2007,23(5):81-87.[JIANG Guanhui,ZHANG Fengrong. Analysis of the driving forces of change of rural residential areas in Beijing mountainous areas based on Logistic regression model[J]. Transactions of the CSAE,2007,23(5):81-87.]
[23]阿如旱,车敏.近60年多伦县气候特征变化分析[J].内蒙古师范大学学报(自然科学汉文版),2017,46(3):426-430.[Aruhan,CHE Min. Analysis on the characteristics of climate change in recent 60 years in Duolun County of Inner Mongolia[J].Journal of Inner Mongolia Normal University(Natural Science Edition). 2017,46(3):426-430.]
[24]高晓霞,温璐,刘华民,等.基于Logistic回归模型的浑善达克沙地动态及其驱动力分析[J].内蒙古大学学报(自然科学版),2016,47(6):625-634.[GAO Xiaoxia,WEN Lu,LIU Huamin,et al. Dynamics changes and driving forces analysis of Otindag sandy land based on Logistic regression model[J]. Journal of Inner Mongolia University(Natural Science Edition),2016,47(6):625-634.]
[25]丁文广,耿怡颖,张慧琳,等.近40 a海西蒙古族藏族自治州沙漠化时空变化及驱动力分析[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2017,11(3):1-8.[DING Wenguang,GENG Yiying,ZHANG Huilin,et al. Analysis on spatial-temporal evolution of desertification and its driving force over Haixi Mongolian and Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture in recent 40 years[J]. Desert and Oasis Meteorology,2017,11(3):1-8.]