长江三角洲区域发展差距时空演变驱动因素研究
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摘要
基于人口经济增长弹性、重心、地理集中度和不一致指数等方法,在研究2000～2015年长江三角洲人口与经济协同演变规律基础上,从人口与经济协同演变的角度,采用空间计量方法探究不同时期区域发展差距驱动因素。研究发现:在发展环境与政策演变影响下,区域人口与经济集聚格局也发生了变化,二者重心距离的缩小表征了总体发展差距的缩小。城市对比发现,区域经济集中度呈现"Z"字形格局而人口集中度南北差异显著;人口与经济不一致指数呈现相对稳定的"核心-边缘"格局,2000～2015年演变表现为发达城市的增加和欠发达城市的下降;这些都表征了区域发展的显著差异和向均衡状态的演变趋势。不同时期区域发展差距影响因素存在一定差异,但总体呈现市场力量的趋强和政府影响的弱化;普通面板回归高估了多数影响因素的效应,空间溢出效应的下降也在一定程度上说明了区域发展向均衡状态的转变。
Regional development gap is one of the key academic issues for economic researchers. Although to some degree it favors to factor flow and resource allocation, long-term and over-huge disparity may weaken the cooperative efficiency between regions. With expanding regional development gap, the way of narrowing the gap has also become the attentive focus of the society. Based on methods of population-economy growth elasticity, center of gravity, geographic concentration and inconsistent index, this paper examines the coordinated evolution law of the population-economy of Yangtze river delta within 2000-2015, and through this perspective explores the driving factors of regional development gap at different periods using spatial panel model. Results show that: the agglomeration pattern of regional population-economy changes responding to the evolution of development environment and policy. The approaching gravity center of pop and economy indicates the gradual narrowing development gap. Economic concentration shows a "Z" shape, while population concentration shows significant north-south difference. Inconsistent index of the population-economy exhibits relatively stable pattern of "core-edge" with the phenomenon of increasing developed cities and decreasing less developed cities, which respectively indicates the significant differences in regional development as well as the evolution of equilibrium trend. Driving factors of regional development gap vary in different periods, overall, the market force strengthens and government influence is weakening. Ordinary panel regression overestimates the effect of many influencing factors, and the declining spillover effects indicates the transition of regional development towards equilibrium. This paper selects one of China's economic powerhouses-Yangtze River Delta as study area, aiming at offering scientific reference for regional coordinated development.
Regional development gap is one of the key academic issues for economic researchers. Although to some degree it favors to factor flow and resource allocation, long-term and over-huge disparity may weaken the cooperative efficiency between regions. With expanding regional development gap, the way of narrowing the gap has also become the attentive focus of the society. Based on methods of population-economy growth elasticity, center of gravity, geographic concentration and inconsistent index, this paper examines the coordinated evolution law of the population-economy of Yangtze river delta within 2000-2015, and through this perspective explores the driving factors of regional development gap at different periods using spatial panel model. Results show that: the agglomeration pattern of regional population-economy changes responding to the evolution of development environment and policy. The approaching gravity center of pop and economy indicates the gradual narrowing development gap. Economic concentration shows a "Z" shape, while population concentration shows significant north-south difference. Inconsistent index of the population-economy exhibits relatively stable pattern of "core-edge" with the phenomenon of increasing developed cities and decreasing less developed cities, which respectively indicates the significant differences in regional development as well as the evolution of equilibrium trend. Driving factors of regional development gap vary in different periods, overall, the market force strengthens and government influence is weakening. Ordinary panel regression overestimates the effect of many influencing factors, and the declining spillover effects indicates the transition of regional development towards equilibrium. This paper selects one of China's economic powerhouses-Yangtze River Delta as study area, aiming at offering scientific reference for regional coordinated development.
引文
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[2] 万永坤,董锁成,王菲,等.俄罗斯东部区域经济发展差异研究[J].地理研究,2013,32(10):1890-1898.WAN Y K, DONG S C, WANG F, et al. Research on the regional economic discrepancy of eastern Russian[J].Geographical Research, 2013,32(10):1890-1898.
[3] 王维,陈云,王晓伟,等.长江经济带区域发展差异时空格局研究[J].长江流域资源与环境,2017,10(26):1489-1497.WANG W, CHEN Y, WANG X W, et al. A study on spatial-temporal patterns of regional development disparities in Yangtze River Economic Zone[J].Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin,2017,10(26):1489-1497.
[4] 靳诚, 陆玉麒.基于空间变差函数的长江三角洲经济发展差异演变研究[J].地理科学,2011,31(11):1329-1334.JIN C, LU Y Q. Evolvement of economic development diversity in the Changjiang River Delta based on spatial variogram[J].Scientia Geographica Sinica,2011,31(11):1329-1334.
[5] 谢天成, 朱晓华.1978 年以来长江三角洲地区经济格局动态变化研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2008,18(5):7-11.XIE T C, ZHU X H. Research on spatial disparity and evolution of regional economy in Yangtze River Delta from 1978[J].China Population Resources and Environment,2008,18(5):7-11.
[6] 段学军, 虞孝感, 刘新.长江三角洲地区30年来区域发展特征初析[J].经济地理,2009,29(2):185-192.DUAN X J, YU X G, LIU X. Analysis on the character of regional development of 30 years in the Yangtze River Delta[J].Economic Geography,2009,29(2):185-192.
[7] 宋伟轩, 陈雯, 彭颖.长三角区域一体化背景下城乡收入格局演变研究[J].地理科学,2013,33(9):1037-1042.SONG W X, CHEN W, PENG Y. Spatial pattern of urban-rural income under the background of regional integration the Changjiang River Delta[J].Scientia Geographica Sinica,2013,33(9):1037-1042.
[8] 孟德友, 李小建, 陆玉麒, 等.长江三角洲地区城市经济发展水平空间格局演变[J].经济地理,2014,34(2):50-57.MENG D Y, LI X J, LU Y Q, et al. Evolvement of spatial pattern of urban economic development in Yangtze River Delta[J].Economic Geography,2014,34(2):50-57.
[9] 沈惊宏, 余兆旺, 石张宇, 等. 多尺度的泛长江三角洲经济空间格局演变[J].经济地理,2016,36(2):19-26.SHEN J H, YU Z W, SHI Z Y, et la. Evolution of economy space structure base on different grades boroughs in the pan Yangtze River Delta[J].Economic Geography,2016,36(2):19-26.
[10] 秦贤宏, 段学军.长三角极化区形成过程中的经济梯度演变特征及政策启示[J].长江流域资源与环境, 2018,27(6):1179-1185.QIN X H, DUAN X J. Analysis on the economic gradient evolution in the formation of Yangtze River Delta polarized area[J].Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin, 2018,27(6):1179-1185.
[11] 张学良.长三角地区经济收敛及其作用机制:1993～2006[J].世界经济,2010(3):126-140.ZHANG X L. Regional economic convergence mechanisms in the Yangtze River Delta of 1993-2016[J].The Journal of World Economy,2010(3):126-140.
[12] 盛广耀.区域经济增长的多重关联效应及其实证检验[J].经济学家,2018(4):34-41.SHENG G Y. Multiple correlation effects of regional economic growth and its empirical test[J].Economist,2018(4):34-41.
[13] 王磊, 段学军, 田方, 等.长江三角洲人口与经济的空间分布关系研究[J].经济地理,2009,29(10): 1619-1623.WANG L, DUAN X J, Tian F, et al. Study on the relationship between population and economic spatial distribution in Yangtze River Delta[J]. Economic Geography, 2009,29(10): 1619-1623.
[14] 肖周燕.中国人口与经济分布一致性的空间效应研究[J].人口研究,2013(5):42-52.XIAO Z Y. Spatial effect of population-economic distribution consistency in China[J]. Population Research,2013(5):42-52.
[15] 闫东升, 何甜, 陈雯. 人口聚集、经济扩散及其不一致状况——来自长江三角洲的经验研究[J].经济地理,2017,37(9):47-56.YAN D S, HE T, CHEN W. Population agglomeration, economic dispersion and inconsistent pattern: Evidence from the Yangtze River Delta[J]. Economic Geography,2017,37(9):47-56.
[16] 樊杰, 陶岸君, 吕晨. 中国经济与人口重心的耦合态势及其对区域发展的影响[J].地理科学进展,2010,29(1):87-95.FAN J, TAO A J, LV C. The coupling mechanism of the centroids of economic gravity and population gravity and its effect on the regional gap in China[J]. Progress in Geography, 2010,29(1): 87-95.
[17] 蒋子龙, 樊杰, 陈东. 2001～2010年中国人口与经济的空间集聚与均衡特征分析[J].经济地理,2014,34(5): 9-14.JIANG Z L, FAN J, CHEN D. Analysis of spatial agglomeration and equilibrium characteristics for population and economic in China during 2001-2010[J]. Economic Geography,2014,34(5): 9-14.
[18] 李国平,罗心然.京津冀地区人口与经济协调发展关系研究[J].地理科学进展,2017,36(1):25-33.LI G P, LUO X R. Coordinated development between population and economy in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region[J].Progress in Geography,2017,36(1): 25-33.
[19] 闫东升, 陈雯, 李平星. 基于人口分布空间特征的市民化压力研究[J].地理研究, 2015,34(9):1733-1743.YAN D S, CHEN W, LI P X. Research of citizenship pressure based on the spatial pattern of population[J].Geographical Research,2015, 34(9): 1733-1743.
[20] BAILEY T C, GATRELL A C. Interactive spatial data analysis[M].Harlow: Longman,1995.
[21] ANSELIN L. Spatial econometircs: Methods and models[M].Dordrecht: Kluwer Academic Publishers,1998.
[22] 胡曙虹,黄丽,范蓓蕾,等.中国高校创新产出的空间溢出效应与区域经济增长:基于省域数据的空间计量经济分析[J].地理科学, 2016,36 (12):1767-1776.HU S H, HUANG L, FAN P L, et al. Spatial spillover effects of innovative outputs of university and its impacts on regional economic growth of China:Based on spatial econometrics analysis of provincial data[J].Scientia Geographica Sinica,2016,36 (12):1767-1776.
[23] 姚士谋,陈振光,朱英明,等.中国城市群.2版[M].合肥:中国科学技术大学出版社,2006.YAO S M, CHEN Z G, ZHU Y M, et al. China’s urban agglomeration.2th[M]. Hefei: University of Science and Technology of China Press, 2006.
[24] 陈建军,陈怀锦,刘月.预期、集聚的动态演化与政策:基于文献的讨论[J].浙江大学学报(人文社会科学版),2015,45 (4)130-141.CHEN J J, CHEN H J, LIU Y. Forward-looking expectations, dynamic evolution of agglomeration and policy: A literature-based discussion[J].Journal of Zhejiang University(Humanities and Social Sciences) ,2015,45(4):130-141.
[25] 杨振.中国人口与经济空间分布关系研究[D].兰州:兰州大学,2008.YANG Z. Study on relationship between population and economic spatial distribution in China[D].Lanzhou:Lanzhou University,2008.
[26] 刘志彪.区域一体化发展的再思考——兼论促进长三角地区一体化发展的政策与手段[J].南京师大学报(社会科学版),2014(6):37-46.LIU Z B. A re-thinking of regional economic integration: Policy and method of promoting an integrated development in Yangtze River Delta[J]. Journal of Nanjing Normal University(Social Science Edition),2014(6):37-4 6.
(1)本文中的江苏、浙江及安徽仅包括相应省份在长江三角洲城市群中的城市.
[2] 万永坤,董锁成,王菲,等.俄罗斯东部区域经济发展差异研究[J].地理研究,2013,32(10):1890-1898.WAN Y K, DONG S C, WANG F, et al. Research on the regional economic discrepancy of eastern Russian[J].Geographical Research, 2013,32(10):1890-1898.
[3] 王维,陈云,王晓伟,等.长江经济带区域发展差异时空格局研究[J].长江流域资源与环境,2017,10(26):1489-1497.WANG W, CHEN Y, WANG X W, et al. A study on spatial-temporal patterns of regional development disparities in Yangtze River Economic Zone[J].Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin,2017,10(26):1489-1497.
[4] 靳诚, 陆玉麒.基于空间变差函数的长江三角洲经济发展差异演变研究[J].地理科学,2011,31(11):1329-1334.JIN C, LU Y Q. Evolvement of economic development diversity in the Changjiang River Delta based on spatial variogram[J].Scientia Geographica Sinica,2011,31(11):1329-1334.
[5] 谢天成, 朱晓华.1978 年以来长江三角洲地区经济格局动态变化研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2008,18(5):7-11.XIE T C, ZHU X H. Research on spatial disparity and evolution of regional economy in Yangtze River Delta from 1978[J].China Population Resources and Environment,2008,18(5):7-11.
[6] 段学军, 虞孝感, 刘新.长江三角洲地区30年来区域发展特征初析[J].经济地理,2009,29(2):185-192.DUAN X J, YU X G, LIU X. Analysis on the character of regional development of 30 years in the Yangtze River Delta[J].Economic Geography,2009,29(2):185-192.
[7] 宋伟轩, 陈雯, 彭颖.长三角区域一体化背景下城乡收入格局演变研究[J].地理科学,2013,33(9):1037-1042.SONG W X, CHEN W, PENG Y. Spatial pattern of urban-rural income under the background of regional integration the Changjiang River Delta[J].Scientia Geographica Sinica,2013,33(9):1037-1042.
[8] 孟德友, 李小建, 陆玉麒, 等.长江三角洲地区城市经济发展水平空间格局演变[J].经济地理,2014,34(2):50-57.MENG D Y, LI X J, LU Y Q, et al. Evolvement of spatial pattern of urban economic development in Yangtze River Delta[J].Economic Geography,2014,34(2):50-57.
[9] 沈惊宏, 余兆旺, 石张宇, 等. 多尺度的泛长江三角洲经济空间格局演变[J].经济地理,2016,36(2):19-26.SHEN J H, YU Z W, SHI Z Y, et la. Evolution of economy space structure base on different grades boroughs in the pan Yangtze River Delta[J].Economic Geography,2016,36(2):19-26.
[10] 秦贤宏, 段学军.长三角极化区形成过程中的经济梯度演变特征及政策启示[J].长江流域资源与环境, 2018,27(6):1179-1185.QIN X H, DUAN X J. Analysis on the economic gradient evolution in the formation of Yangtze River Delta polarized area[J].Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin, 2018,27(6):1179-1185.
[11] 张学良.长三角地区经济收敛及其作用机制:1993～2006[J].世界经济,2010(3):126-140.ZHANG X L. Regional economic convergence mechanisms in the Yangtze River Delta of 1993-2016[J].The Journal of World Economy,2010(3):126-140.
[12] 盛广耀.区域经济增长的多重关联效应及其实证检验[J].经济学家,2018(4):34-41.SHENG G Y. Multiple correlation effects of regional economic growth and its empirical test[J].Economist,2018(4):34-41.
[13] 王磊, 段学军, 田方, 等.长江三角洲人口与经济的空间分布关系研究[J].经济地理,2009,29(10): 1619-1623.WANG L, DUAN X J, Tian F, et al. Study on the relationship between population and economic spatial distribution in Yangtze River Delta[J]. Economic Geography, 2009,29(10): 1619-1623.
[14] 肖周燕.中国人口与经济分布一致性的空间效应研究[J].人口研究,2013(5):42-52.XIAO Z Y. Spatial effect of population-economic distribution consistency in China[J]. Population Research,2013(5):42-52.
[15] 闫东升, 何甜, 陈雯. 人口聚集、经济扩散及其不一致状况——来自长江三角洲的经验研究[J].经济地理,2017,37(9):47-56.YAN D S, HE T, CHEN W. Population agglomeration, economic dispersion and inconsistent pattern: Evidence from the Yangtze River Delta[J]. Economic Geography,2017,37(9):47-56.
[16] 樊杰, 陶岸君, 吕晨. 中国经济与人口重心的耦合态势及其对区域发展的影响[J].地理科学进展,2010,29(1):87-95.FAN J, TAO A J, LV C. The coupling mechanism of the centroids of economic gravity and population gravity and its effect on the regional gap in China[J]. Progress in Geography, 2010,29(1): 87-95.
[17] 蒋子龙, 樊杰, 陈东. 2001～2010年中国人口与经济的空间集聚与均衡特征分析[J].经济地理,2014,34(5): 9-14.JIANG Z L, FAN J, CHEN D. Analysis of spatial agglomeration and equilibrium characteristics for population and economic in China during 2001-2010[J]. Economic Geography,2014,34(5): 9-14.
[18] 李国平,罗心然.京津冀地区人口与经济协调发展关系研究[J].地理科学进展,2017,36(1):25-33.LI G P, LUO X R. Coordinated development between population and economy in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region[J].Progress in Geography,2017,36(1): 25-33.
[19] 闫东升, 陈雯, 李平星. 基于人口分布空间特征的市民化压力研究[J].地理研究, 2015,34(9):1733-1743.YAN D S, CHEN W, LI P X. Research of citizenship pressure based on the spatial pattern of population[J].Geographical Research,2015, 34(9): 1733-1743.
[20] BAILEY T C, GATRELL A C. Interactive spatial data analysis[M].Harlow: Longman,1995.
[21] ANSELIN L. Spatial econometircs: Methods and models[M].Dordrecht: Kluwer Academic Publishers,1998.
[22] 胡曙虹,黄丽,范蓓蕾,等.中国高校创新产出的空间溢出效应与区域经济增长:基于省域数据的空间计量经济分析[J].地理科学, 2016,36 (12):1767-1776.HU S H, HUANG L, FAN P L, et al. Spatial spillover effects of innovative outputs of university and its impacts on regional economic growth of China:Based on spatial econometrics analysis of provincial data[J].Scientia Geographica Sinica,2016,36 (12):1767-1776.
[23] 姚士谋,陈振光,朱英明,等.中国城市群.2版[M].合肥:中国科学技术大学出版社,2006.YAO S M, CHEN Z G, ZHU Y M, et al. China’s urban agglomeration.2th[M]. Hefei: University of Science and Technology of China Press, 2006.
[24] 陈建军,陈怀锦,刘月.预期、集聚的动态演化与政策:基于文献的讨论[J].浙江大学学报(人文社会科学版),2015,45 (4)130-141.CHEN J J, CHEN H J, LIU Y. Forward-looking expectations, dynamic evolution of agglomeration and policy: A literature-based discussion[J].Journal of Zhejiang University(Humanities and Social Sciences) ,2015,45(4):130-141.
[25] 杨振.中国人口与经济空间分布关系研究[D].兰州:兰州大学,2008.YANG Z. Study on relationship between population and economic spatial distribution in China[D].Lanzhou:Lanzhou University,2008.
[26] 刘志彪.区域一体化发展的再思考——兼论促进长三角地区一体化发展的政策与手段[J].南京师大学报(社会科学版),2014(6):37-46.LIU Z B. A re-thinking of regional economic integration: Policy and method of promoting an integrated development in Yangtze River Delta[J]. Journal of Nanjing Normal University(Social Science Edition),2014(6):37-4 6.
(1)本文中的江苏、浙江及安徽仅包括相应省份在长江三角洲城市群中的城市.
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