南京市近25年短历时暴雨雨型特性
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摘要
采用南京市7个雨量观测站近25年的逐分钟雨量资料,提取了各站30min、60min、90min、120min、150min、180min历时的暴雨样本,统计了各站暴雨年发生次数变化并比较了空间差异性,采用模糊识别法识别了各暴雨样本的雨型,分析了各历时暴雨样本雨型组成结构,从雨峰数量和雨峰系数方面探究了雨峰的分布规律,并对比了城郊暴雨雨型特征差异性。结果表明,近25年来南京市暴雨发生次数呈增加趋势,暴雨时程分配更加集中;各历时暴雨中以雨型Ⅰ(单峰且雨峰在前部)、Ⅳ(暴雨过程均匀)发生频率较大,雨型发生比例空间差异较小;各站暴雨中约有38.6%~70.2%为单峰暴雨,不同站点暴雨雨峰位置分布类似;城区暴雨发生频次更高,且未来时期持续性强降水发生几率较大,郊区暴雨雨峰出现时间比城区更早。
Based on the rainifall data at 7 rainfall stations in Nanjing City during 1992-2016,this paper extracted the rainstorm samples in the durations of 30 minutes,60 minutes,90 minutes,120 minutes,150 minutes and 180 minutes.Besides,the annual rainstorm frequencies were collected and the spatial difference was compared.Moreover,the patterns of rainstorm samples were investigated based on the rainfall peak quantity and rainfall peak coefficients by using the fuzzy recognition method.Then,the rainstorm pattern difference was compared between the urban and suburban areas.The results show that the the rainstorm frequency increased in the recent 25 years.The temporal distribution of rainstorms tends to concentrate in a short duration.The rainstorms of pattern No.I and No.IV occur more frequently than the other patterns,and the spatial variation of rainfall pattern is little.The single peak rainstorm accounts for about 38.6%-70.2% of rainstroms.The spatial distribution of all duration rainstorm is similar.The frequency of rainstorms is higher in urban areas,and the probability of continuous rainstorms is greater in the future.The rainstorm peaks in the suburban areas appear earlier than that in the urban areas.
Based on the rainifall data at 7 rainfall stations in Nanjing City during 1992-2016,this paper extracted the rainstorm samples in the durations of 30 minutes,60 minutes,90 minutes,120 minutes,150 minutes and 180 minutes.Besides,the annual rainstorm frequencies were collected and the spatial difference was compared.Moreover,the patterns of rainstorm samples were investigated based on the rainfall peak quantity and rainfall peak coefficients by using the fuzzy recognition method.Then,the rainstorm pattern difference was compared between the urban and suburban areas.The results show that the the rainstorm frequency increased in the recent 25 years.The temporal distribution of rainstorms tends to concentrate in a short duration.The rainstorms of pattern No.I and No.IV occur more frequently than the other patterns,and the spatial variation of rainfall pattern is little.The single peak rainstorm accounts for about 38.6%-70.2% of rainstroms.The spatial distribution of all duration rainstorm is similar.The frequency of rainstorms is higher in urban areas,and the probability of continuous rainstorms is greater in the future.The rainstorm peaks in the suburban areas appear earlier than that in the urban areas.
引文
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[13]杨星,朱大栋,李朝方,等.按风险率模型分析的设计雨型[J].水利学报,2013,44(5):542-548.(YANG Xing,ZHU Dadong,LI Chaofang,et al.Establishment of design hyetographs based on risk probability models[J].Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,2013,44(5):542-548.(in Chinese))
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[16]高佳琦,沈天琦,朱晓晨.基于GIS的南京主城区暴雨内涝灾害脆弱性研究[J].湖北农业科学,2015,54(12):2891-2896.(GAO Jiaqi,SHEN Tianqi,ZHU Xiaochen.Study of the vulnerability of Nanjing City rainstorm waterlogging disaster based on GIS[J].Hubei Agricultural Sciences,2015,54(12):2891-2896.(in Chinese))
[17]王光明,廖玉芳,曾向红,等.湖南短历时暴雨雨型分析[J].暴雨灾害,2017,36(1):86-90.(WANG Guangming,LIAO Yufang,ZENG Xianghong,et al.The analysis of the short-duration rainstorm pattern over Hunan Province[J].Torrential Rain and Disaster,2017,36(l):86-90.(in Chinese))
[18]王彬雁,赵琳娜,巩远发,等.北京降雨过程分型特征及短历时降雨重现期研究[J].暴雨灾害,2015,34(4):302-308.(WANG Binyan,ZHAO Linna,GONG Yuanfa,et al.Characteristics of temporal pattern and return period of short-duration rainfall at Beijing observatory[J].Torrential Rain and Disasters,2015,34(4):302-308.(in Chinese))
[19]戴有学,王振华,戴临栋,等.芝加哥雨型法在短历时暴雨雨型设计中的应用[J].干旱气象,2017,35(6):1061-1069.(DAI Youxue,WANG Zhenhua,DAI Lindong,et al.Application of Chicago hyetograph method in design of short duration rainstorm pattern[J].Journal of Arid Meteorology,2017,35(6):1061-1069.(in Chinese))
[2]沈澄,颜廷柏,刘冬晴,等.2008-2012年南京短时强降水特征分析[J].气象与环境学报,2015,31(1):28-33.(SHEN Cheng,YAN Tingbai,LIU Dongqing,et al.Characteristics of short-time heavy precipitation from 2008 to 2012 in Nanjing[J].Journal of Meteorology and Environment,2015,31(1):28-33.(in Chinese))
[3]侯精明,郭凯华,王志力,等.设计暴雨雨型对城市内涝影响数值模拟[J].水科学进展,2017,28(6):820-828.(HOU Jingming,GUO Kaihua,WAGN Zhili,et al.Numerical simulation of design storm pattern effects on urban flood inundation[J].Advances in Water Science,2017,28(6):820-828.(in Chinese))
[4]孙燕.朱伟军.江苏省梅汛期暴雨特征及其对长江下游水位的影响[J].地理科学,2013,33(2):238-243.(SUN Yan,ZHU Weijun.Rainstorm characteristics during Meiyu period in Jiangsu and its effect on water levels of lower reaches of the Changjiang River[J].Scientia Geographica Sinica,2013,33(2):238-243.(in Chinese))
[5]陈圣稢,尹东屏,李玉涛,等.南京地区城郊降雨差异特征分析[J].气象与环境学报,2016,32(6):27-42.(CHEN Shengjie,YIN Dongping,LI Yutao,et al.Analysis of differences of rainfall between urban and rural regions in Nanjing[J].Journal of Meteorology and Environment,2016,32(6):27-33.(in Chinese))
[6]沈红霞,杜付然.江海涛,等.南京主城区设计暴雨计算研究[J].水资源与水工程学报,2017,(6):74-78.(SHEN Hongxia,DU Furan,JIANG Haitao,et al.Study on design rainstorm in Nanjing main urban area[J].Journal of Water Resources&Water Engineering,2017,(6):74-78.(in Chinese))
[7]毛宇清,吴海英,裴海瑛,等.近50a南京夏季降水的气候特征[J].气象科学,2012,32(6):646-652.(MAO Yuqing,WU Haiying,PEI Haiying,et al.Climate features of summer rainfall in Nanjing during recent 50a[J].Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2012,32(6):646-652.(in Chinese))
[8]王啸华,郑媛媛,徐芬,等.2011年江苏南部两场大暴雨对比分析[J].气象科学,2015,35(4):497-505.(WANG Xiaohua,ZHENG Yuanyuan,XU Fen,et al.Comparative analysis on two torrential rains in southern Jiangsu of 2011[J].Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2015,35(4):497-505.(in Chinese))
[9]王宏伟,方娟.一次梅雨期台风远距离暴雨的分析研究[J].气象科学,2014,34(6):601-611.(WANG Hongwei,FANG Juan.Analysis on a rainstorm related to remote typhoon during Meiyu period[J].Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2014,34(6):601-611.(in Chinese))
[10]刘梅,王磊,陈圣劼,等.江苏梅汛期不同天气背景水汽特征量分析[J].资源科学,2017,39(11):2141-2152.(LIU Mei,WANG Lei,CHEN Shengjie,et al.Moisture characteristics analysis of different weather backgrounds in plum flood season in Jiangsu[J].Resources Science,2017,39(11):2141-2152.(in Chinese))
[11]胡茂川,张兴奇.南京市内涝灾害成因分析[J].重庆交通大学学报(社会科学版),2011,11(3):28-30.(HU Maochuan,ZHANG Xingqi.Analysis of causes of waterlogging disasters in Nanjing City[J].Journal of Chongqing Jiaotong University(Social Sciences Edition),2011,11(3):28-30.(in Chinese))
[12]翁莉,马林,徐双凤.城市暴雨灾害风险评估及防御对策研究——以江苏省南京市为例[J].灾害学,2015,(1):130-134.(WENG Li,MA Lin,XU Shuangfeng.The urban rainstorm disaster risk assessment and defensive countermeasure-a case study of Nanjing of Jiangsu province[J].Journal of Catastrophology,2015,30(1):130-134.(in Chinese))
[13]杨星,朱大栋,李朝方,等.按风险率模型分析的设计雨型[J].水利学报,2013,44(5):542-548.(YANG Xing,ZHU Dadong,LI Chaofang,et al.Establishment of design hyetographs based on risk probability models[J].Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,2013,44(5):542-548.(in Chinese))
[14]林孝松,郭跃.滑坡与降雨的耦合关系研究[J].灾害学,2001,16(2):87-92.(LIN Xiaosong,GUO Yue.A study on coupling relation between landslide and rainfall[J].Journal of catastrophology,2001,16(2):87-92.(in Chinese))
[15]张社荣,谭尧升,王超,等.强降雨特性对饱和-非饱和边坡失稳破坏的影响[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2014,33(a2):4102-4112.(ZHANG Sherong,TAN Yaosheng,WANG Chao,et al.Influence of heavy rainfall characteristics on saturated-unsaturated slope failure[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2014,33(a2):4102-4112.(in Chinese))
[16]高佳琦,沈天琦,朱晓晨.基于GIS的南京主城区暴雨内涝灾害脆弱性研究[J].湖北农业科学,2015,54(12):2891-2896.(GAO Jiaqi,SHEN Tianqi,ZHU Xiaochen.Study of the vulnerability of Nanjing City rainstorm waterlogging disaster based on GIS[J].Hubei Agricultural Sciences,2015,54(12):2891-2896.(in Chinese))
[17]王光明,廖玉芳,曾向红,等.湖南短历时暴雨雨型分析[J].暴雨灾害,2017,36(1):86-90.(WANG Guangming,LIAO Yufang,ZENG Xianghong,et al.The analysis of the short-duration rainstorm pattern over Hunan Province[J].Torrential Rain and Disaster,2017,36(l):86-90.(in Chinese))
[18]王彬雁,赵琳娜,巩远发,等.北京降雨过程分型特征及短历时降雨重现期研究[J].暴雨灾害,2015,34(4):302-308.(WANG Binyan,ZHAO Linna,GONG Yuanfa,et al.Characteristics of temporal pattern and return period of short-duration rainfall at Beijing observatory[J].Torrential Rain and Disasters,2015,34(4):302-308.(in Chinese))
[19]戴有学,王振华,戴临栋,等.芝加哥雨型法在短历时暴雨雨型设计中的应用[J].干旱气象,2017,35(6):1061-1069.(DAI Youxue,WANG Zhenhua,DAI Lindong,et al.Application of Chicago hyetograph method in design of short duration rainstorm pattern[J].Journal of Arid Meteorology,2017,35(6):1061-1069.(in Chinese))