经济林种植对人工林木材供给能力的影响:抑制还是促进?——基于南方12省份森林资源清查面板数据
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摘要
本文首先识别了经济林种植对人工林木材供给能力的作用机制,构建了将经济林种植在土地利用上的竞争效应及其经营收益的投资效应相结合的理论分析框架,然后基于南方12省份第二次至第八次森林资源清查面板数据,实证分析了经济林种植对人工林木材供给能力的影响及其机制。研究结果表明:第一,经济林种植提升了人工林蓄积量,总体上促进了南方12省份木材供给能力的提升;第二,经济林种植在土地利用上的竞争效应会一定程度地抑制人工林面积的增加,但其经营收益的投资效应则能明显促进人工林单位面积蓄积量的提升;第三,经济林种植更可能通过发挥消极投资效应提升人工林木材供给能力,即发挥经营收益的生计保障作用,使农户更有耐心等待长周期林木投资的回报。因此,要关注不同林种转换对木材生产和农户生计的影响,并重视经济林种植"以短养长"的投资效应及其对小规模农户在从事人工林木材经营方面的保障价值。
This article constructs a theoretical framework of analysis that combines two intervention mechanisms, namely, the competition effect of tree crops cultivation on land use and the investment effect of its operating income. Based on the panel data from the second to the eighth forest resources inventory in12 provinces of South China, the study adopts a fixed effect model to empirically analyze the effect of the cultivation of tree crops on timber supply capacity in planted forests and its internal mechanisms. The results are as follows. Firstly, the cultivation of tree crops increases the volume of planted forest, and generally improves timber supply capacity in 12 southern provinces. Secondly, the cultivation of tree crops tends to inhibit expansion of planted forest area to a certain extent through land use competition effect, but largely promotes the increase of the volume of planted forest unit area through the investment effect of its operating income. Thirdly, tree crops cultivation is more likely to enhance the timber supply capacity of plantation by exerting negative investment effect, which means to give full play to the livelihood security role of operating income, thus making smallholders more patient to wait for long-term returns from planted forest timber investment. The results indicate that one should pay attention to the impact of conversion of forest types on timber supply and smallholders' livelihoods, as well as to the investment effect of tree crops cultivation and its guarantee value for smallholders engaged in forest management.
This article constructs a theoretical framework of analysis that combines two intervention mechanisms, namely, the competition effect of tree crops cultivation on land use and the investment effect of its operating income. Based on the panel data from the second to the eighth forest resources inventory in12 provinces of South China, the study adopts a fixed effect model to empirically analyze the effect of the cultivation of tree crops on timber supply capacity in planted forests and its internal mechanisms. The results are as follows. Firstly, the cultivation of tree crops increases the volume of planted forest, and generally improves timber supply capacity in 12 southern provinces. Secondly, the cultivation of tree crops tends to inhibit expansion of planted forest area to a certain extent through land use competition effect, but largely promotes the increase of the volume of planted forest unit area through the investment effect of its operating income. Thirdly, tree crops cultivation is more likely to enhance the timber supply capacity of plantation by exerting negative investment effect, which means to give full play to the livelihood security role of operating income, thus making smallholders more patient to wait for long-term returns from planted forest timber investment. The results indicate that one should pay attention to the impact of conversion of forest types on timber supply and smallholders' livelihoods, as well as to the investment effect of tree crops cultivation and its guarantee value for smallholders engaged in forest management.
引文
1.陈幸良、巨茜、林昆仑,2014:《中国人工林发展现状、问题与对策》,《世界林业研究》第6期。
2.蒋立、王安、杨布朗、张志涛、朱烈夫,2017:《湖北省三峡库区生态屏障区生态建设情况调研报告》,《林业经济》第9期。
3.李凌超、刘金龙、程宝栋,2018:《中国劳动力转移对森林转型的影响》,《资源科学》第8期。
4.李向宇,2016:《“佃山造林”的政治经济学考察》,《中国农村观察》第6期。
5.龙贺兴、林素娇、刘金龙,2017:《成立社区林业股份合作组织的集体行动何以可能?》,《中国农村经济》第8期。
6.许传德、韩璐、张学军,2015:《新世纪以来我国木材进口情况分析及预测》,《林业经济》第10期。
7.王小龙,2004:《退耕还林:私人承包与政府规制》,《经济研究》第4期。
8.张红、周黎安、徐晋涛、赵锦勇,2016:《林权改革、基层民主与投资激励》,《经济学(季刊)》第3期。
9.张英、宋维明,2012:《林权制度改革对集体林区森林资源的影响研究》,《农业技术经济》第4期。
10.周振、张琛、彭超、孔祥智,2016:《农业机械化与农民收入:来自农机具购置补贴政策的证据》,《中国农村经济》第6期。
11.Bennett,M.T.,A.Mehta,and J.Xu,2011,“Incomplete Property Rights,Exposure to Markets and the Provision of Environmental Services in China”,China Economic Review,22(4):485-498.
12.Bhattarai,M.,and M.Hammig,2001,“Institutions and the Environmental Kuznets Curve for Deforestation”,World Development,29(6):995-1010.
13.Frayer,J.,Z.Sun,D.Müller,D.K.Munroe,and J.Xu,2014,“Analyzing the Drivers of Tree Planting in Yunnan,China,with Bayesian Networks”,Land Use Policy,36:248-258.
14.Gatto,M.,Wollni,M.,and Qaim,M.,2015.“Oil Palm Boom and Land-use Dynamics in Indonesia:The Role of Policies and Socioeconomic Factors”,Land Use Policy,46:292-303.
15.Gasparri,N.I.,H.R.Grau,and J.Gutiérrez Angonese,2013,“Linkages between Soybean and Neotropical Deforestation:Coupling and Transient Decoupling Dynamics in a Multi-decadalAnalysis”,Global Environment Change,23(6):1605-1614.
16.He,J.,2016,“Rights to Benefit from Forest?A Case Study of the Timber Harvest Quota System in Southwest China”,Society&Natural Resources,29(4):448-461.
17.Heilmayr,R.,2014,“Conservation through Intensification?The Effects of Plantations on Natural Forests”,Ecological Economics,105:204-210.
18.Heilmayr,R,C.Echeverría,R.Fuentes,and E.F.Lambin,2016,“A Plantation-dominated Forest Transition in Chile”,Applied Geography,75:71-82.
19.Hogarth,N.J.,B.Belcher,B.Campbell,and N.Stacey,2013,“The Role of Forest-related Income in Household Economies and Rural Livelihoods in the Border-region of Southern China”,World Development,43:111-123.
20.Hua,F.,L.Wang,B.Fisher,X.Zheng,X.Wang,D.W.Yu,Y.Tang,J.Zhu,and D.S.Wilcove,2018,“Tree Plantations Displacing Native Forests:The Nature and Drivers of Apparent Forest Recovery on Former Croplands in Southwestern China From 2000 to 2015”,Biological Conservation,222:113-124.
21.Li,L.,J.Liu,H.Long,W.De Jong,and Y.C.Youn,2017,“Economic Globalization,Trade and Forest Transition--The Case of NineAsian Countries”,Forest Policy and Economics,76:7-13.
22.Liu,C.,S.Wang,H.Liu,and W.Zhu,2017,“Why Did the 1980s’Reform of Collective Forestland Tenure in Southern China Fail?”,Forest Policy and Economic,83:131-141.
23.Mather,A.S.,1992,“The Forest Transition”,Area,24(4):367-379.
24.Mertens,B.,H.Liu,B.Belcher,M.Ruiz-Pe′rez,M.Fu,and X.Yang,2008,“Spatial Patterns and Processes of Bamboo Expansion in Southern China”,Applied Geography,28(1):16-31.
25.Meyfroidt,P.,and Lambin E.F.,2008,“TheCauses of the Reforestation inVietnam”,Land Use Policy,25(2):182-197.
6.Qian,N.,2008,“Missing Women and the Price of Tea in China:The Effect of Sex-specific Earnings on Sex Imbalance”,The Quarterly Journal of Economics,123(3):1251-1285.
27.Qiu,J.,2009,“Where the Rubber Meets the Garden”,Nature,457:246-247.
28.Rudel,T.K.,2009,“Tree Farms:Driving Forces and Regional Patterns in the Global Expansion of Forest Plantations”,Land Use Policy,26(3):545-550.
29.Rudel,T.K.,2010,“Three Paths to Forest Expansion:A Comparative Historical Analysis”,in H.Nagendra and J.Southworth(eds.):Reforesting Landscapes,Dordrecht,the Netherlands:Springer,pp.45-57.
30.Rudel,T.K.,S.Sloan,R.Chazdon,and R.Grau.,2016.“The Drivers of Tree Cover Expansion:Global,Temperate,and Tropical ZoneAnalyses”,Land Use Policy,58:502-513.
31.Sikor,T.,2012,“Tree Plantations,Politics of Possession and the Absence of Land Grabs in Vietnam”,The Journal of Peasant Studies,39(3-4):1077-1101.
32.Sturgeon,J.C.,2010,“Governing Minorities and Development in Xishuangbanna,China:Akha and Dai Rubber Farmers as Entrepreneurs”,Geoforum,41(2):318-328.
33.Su,S.,X.Zhou,C.Wang,Y.Li,and W.Kong,2016,“Land Use Changes to Cash Crop Plantations:Crop Types,Multilevel Determinants and Policy Implications”,Land Use Policy,50:379-390.
34.Urgessa,T.,2015,“The Determinants of Agricultural Productivity and Rural Household Income in Ethiopia”,Ethiopian Journal of Economics,2(24):63-91.
35.Wang,S.,C.Liu,and B.Wilson,2007,“Is China in a Later Stage of U-shaped Forest Resource Curve?ARe-examination of Empirical Evidence”,Forest Policy and Economic,10(1-2):1-6.
36.Wolfersberger,J.,P.Delacote,and S.Garcia,2015,“An Empirical Analysis of Forest Transition and Land-use Change in Developing Countries”,Ecological Economics,119:241-251.
37.Zhai,D.,J.Xu,Z.Dai,C.Cannon,and R.Grumbine,2014,“Increasing Tree Cover while Losing Diverse Natural Forests in Tropical Hainan,China”,Regional Environmental Change,14(2):611-621.
38.Zhang,Y.,J.Uusivuori,and J.Kuuluvainen,2000,“Econometric Analysis of the Causes of Forest Land Use Changes in Hainan,China”,Canadian Journal of Forest Research,30(12):1913-1921.
39.Ziegler,A.D.,J.M.Fox,and J.Xu,2009,“The Rubber Juggernaut”,Science,324(5930):1024-1025.
(1)资料来源:《中华人民共和国森林法》,中国政府网,http://www.gov.cn/banshi/2005-09/13/content_68753.htm。
(2)本文中,人工林仅指人工林中的林分,即人工乔木林,不包含不以木材利用为目的的经济林中的乔木类树种。
(1)数据来源:国家林业科学数据共享服务平台,http://www.cfsdc.org。
(2)国家统计局(编):《中国统计年鉴》(1981~2014年,历年),北京:中国统计出版社。
(3)国家统计局国民经济综合统计司(编),2010:《新中国六十年统计资料汇编》,北京:中国统计出版社。
(4)国家统计局农村社会经济调查司(编):《中国农村统计年鉴》(1985~2014年,历年),北京:中国统计出版社。
(5)国家林业局(编):《中国林业统计年鉴》(1988~2014年,历年),北京:中国林业出版社。
(6)中华人民共和国林业部(编),1990:《全国林业统计资料汇编1949—1987》,北京:中国林业出版社。
(1)根据《国家森林资源连续清查技术规定》,宜林地是指适宜发展林业但未被林木覆盖的土地,包括宜林荒山荒地、宜林沙荒地和其它宜林地。资料来源:国家林业局森林资源管理司(编),2007:《森林资源管理工作手册3》,北京:中国计量出版社。
2.蒋立、王安、杨布朗、张志涛、朱烈夫,2017:《湖北省三峡库区生态屏障区生态建设情况调研报告》,《林业经济》第9期。
3.李凌超、刘金龙、程宝栋,2018:《中国劳动力转移对森林转型的影响》,《资源科学》第8期。
4.李向宇,2016:《“佃山造林”的政治经济学考察》,《中国农村观察》第6期。
5.龙贺兴、林素娇、刘金龙,2017:《成立社区林业股份合作组织的集体行动何以可能?》,《中国农村经济》第8期。
6.许传德、韩璐、张学军,2015:《新世纪以来我国木材进口情况分析及预测》,《林业经济》第10期。
7.王小龙,2004:《退耕还林:私人承包与政府规制》,《经济研究》第4期。
8.张红、周黎安、徐晋涛、赵锦勇,2016:《林权改革、基层民主与投资激励》,《经济学(季刊)》第3期。
9.张英、宋维明,2012:《林权制度改革对集体林区森林资源的影响研究》,《农业技术经济》第4期。
10.周振、张琛、彭超、孔祥智,2016:《农业机械化与农民收入:来自农机具购置补贴政策的证据》,《中国农村经济》第6期。
11.Bennett,M.T.,A.Mehta,and J.Xu,2011,“Incomplete Property Rights,Exposure to Markets and the Provision of Environmental Services in China”,China Economic Review,22(4):485-498.
12.Bhattarai,M.,and M.Hammig,2001,“Institutions and the Environmental Kuznets Curve for Deforestation”,World Development,29(6):995-1010.
13.Frayer,J.,Z.Sun,D.Müller,D.K.Munroe,and J.Xu,2014,“Analyzing the Drivers of Tree Planting in Yunnan,China,with Bayesian Networks”,Land Use Policy,36:248-258.
14.Gatto,M.,Wollni,M.,and Qaim,M.,2015.“Oil Palm Boom and Land-use Dynamics in Indonesia:The Role of Policies and Socioeconomic Factors”,Land Use Policy,46:292-303.
15.Gasparri,N.I.,H.R.Grau,and J.Gutiérrez Angonese,2013,“Linkages between Soybean and Neotropical Deforestation:Coupling and Transient Decoupling Dynamics in a Multi-decadalAnalysis”,Global Environment Change,23(6):1605-1614.
16.He,J.,2016,“Rights to Benefit from Forest?A Case Study of the Timber Harvest Quota System in Southwest China”,Society&Natural Resources,29(4):448-461.
17.Heilmayr,R.,2014,“Conservation through Intensification?The Effects of Plantations on Natural Forests”,Ecological Economics,105:204-210.
18.Heilmayr,R,C.Echeverría,R.Fuentes,and E.F.Lambin,2016,“A Plantation-dominated Forest Transition in Chile”,Applied Geography,75:71-82.
19.Hogarth,N.J.,B.Belcher,B.Campbell,and N.Stacey,2013,“The Role of Forest-related Income in Household Economies and Rural Livelihoods in the Border-region of Southern China”,World Development,43:111-123.
20.Hua,F.,L.Wang,B.Fisher,X.Zheng,X.Wang,D.W.Yu,Y.Tang,J.Zhu,and D.S.Wilcove,2018,“Tree Plantations Displacing Native Forests:The Nature and Drivers of Apparent Forest Recovery on Former Croplands in Southwestern China From 2000 to 2015”,Biological Conservation,222:113-124.
21.Li,L.,J.Liu,H.Long,W.De Jong,and Y.C.Youn,2017,“Economic Globalization,Trade and Forest Transition--The Case of NineAsian Countries”,Forest Policy and Economics,76:7-13.
22.Liu,C.,S.Wang,H.Liu,and W.Zhu,2017,“Why Did the 1980s’Reform of Collective Forestland Tenure in Southern China Fail?”,Forest Policy and Economic,83:131-141.
23.Mather,A.S.,1992,“The Forest Transition”,Area,24(4):367-379.
24.Mertens,B.,H.Liu,B.Belcher,M.Ruiz-Pe′rez,M.Fu,and X.Yang,2008,“Spatial Patterns and Processes of Bamboo Expansion in Southern China”,Applied Geography,28(1):16-31.
25.Meyfroidt,P.,and Lambin E.F.,2008,“TheCauses of the Reforestation inVietnam”,Land Use Policy,25(2):182-197.
6.Qian,N.,2008,“Missing Women and the Price of Tea in China:The Effect of Sex-specific Earnings on Sex Imbalance”,The Quarterly Journal of Economics,123(3):1251-1285.
27.Qiu,J.,2009,“Where the Rubber Meets the Garden”,Nature,457:246-247.
28.Rudel,T.K.,2009,“Tree Farms:Driving Forces and Regional Patterns in the Global Expansion of Forest Plantations”,Land Use Policy,26(3):545-550.
29.Rudel,T.K.,2010,“Three Paths to Forest Expansion:A Comparative Historical Analysis”,in H.Nagendra and J.Southworth(eds.):Reforesting Landscapes,Dordrecht,the Netherlands:Springer,pp.45-57.
30.Rudel,T.K.,S.Sloan,R.Chazdon,and R.Grau.,2016.“The Drivers of Tree Cover Expansion:Global,Temperate,and Tropical ZoneAnalyses”,Land Use Policy,58:502-513.
31.Sikor,T.,2012,“Tree Plantations,Politics of Possession and the Absence of Land Grabs in Vietnam”,The Journal of Peasant Studies,39(3-4):1077-1101.
32.Sturgeon,J.C.,2010,“Governing Minorities and Development in Xishuangbanna,China:Akha and Dai Rubber Farmers as Entrepreneurs”,Geoforum,41(2):318-328.
33.Su,S.,X.Zhou,C.Wang,Y.Li,and W.Kong,2016,“Land Use Changes to Cash Crop Plantations:Crop Types,Multilevel Determinants and Policy Implications”,Land Use Policy,50:379-390.
34.Urgessa,T.,2015,“The Determinants of Agricultural Productivity and Rural Household Income in Ethiopia”,Ethiopian Journal of Economics,2(24):63-91.
35.Wang,S.,C.Liu,and B.Wilson,2007,“Is China in a Later Stage of U-shaped Forest Resource Curve?ARe-examination of Empirical Evidence”,Forest Policy and Economic,10(1-2):1-6.
36.Wolfersberger,J.,P.Delacote,and S.Garcia,2015,“An Empirical Analysis of Forest Transition and Land-use Change in Developing Countries”,Ecological Economics,119:241-251.
37.Zhai,D.,J.Xu,Z.Dai,C.Cannon,and R.Grumbine,2014,“Increasing Tree Cover while Losing Diverse Natural Forests in Tropical Hainan,China”,Regional Environmental Change,14(2):611-621.
38.Zhang,Y.,J.Uusivuori,and J.Kuuluvainen,2000,“Econometric Analysis of the Causes of Forest Land Use Changes in Hainan,China”,Canadian Journal of Forest Research,30(12):1913-1921.
39.Ziegler,A.D.,J.M.Fox,and J.Xu,2009,“The Rubber Juggernaut”,Science,324(5930):1024-1025.
(1)资料来源:《中华人民共和国森林法》,中国政府网,http://www.gov.cn/banshi/2005-09/13/content_68753.htm。
(2)本文中,人工林仅指人工林中的林分,即人工乔木林,不包含不以木材利用为目的的经济林中的乔木类树种。
(1)数据来源:国家林业科学数据共享服务平台,http://www.cfsdc.org。
(2)国家统计局(编):《中国统计年鉴》(1981~2014年,历年),北京:中国统计出版社。
(3)国家统计局国民经济综合统计司(编),2010:《新中国六十年统计资料汇编》,北京:中国统计出版社。
(4)国家统计局农村社会经济调查司(编):《中国农村统计年鉴》(1985~2014年,历年),北京:中国统计出版社。
(5)国家林业局(编):《中国林业统计年鉴》(1988~2014年,历年),北京:中国林业出版社。
(6)中华人民共和国林业部(编),1990:《全国林业统计资料汇编1949—1987》,北京:中国林业出版社。
(1)根据《国家森林资源连续清查技术规定》,宜林地是指适宜发展林业但未被林木覆盖的土地,包括宜林荒山荒地、宜林沙荒地和其它宜林地。资料来源:国家林业局森林资源管理司(编),2007:《森林资源管理工作手册3》,北京:中国计量出版社。
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