城镇化进程中的邻避项目风险演化线索探究
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摘要
随着城市化进程的加快,邻避冲突愈演愈烈,对其成因进行分析十分重要。为探究项目风险演化为邻避冲突的关键影响因素,在对已有研究成果梳理总结的基础上,归纳得到13个线索因素,构建出邻避风险演化单一系统设计透镜模型,以实现主观认知判断对决策标的预测。运用Policy EXC软件对回收的SJT问卷数据进行仿真,经过整合分析确定3个具有预测作用的线索,分别为政府部门的信息封闭、环境遭受污染程度及生活质量受损程度。
With the increasing urbanization rate in our country, the occurrence of "not in my back yard"(NIMBY) conflict has become intensified, so it is particularly important to analyze the causes of these conflicts.Therefore, to explore the effects of the risk evolution of NIMBY projects on NIMBY conflicts, we have generalized and identified 13 cues(decision reference variables) by summarizing the existing research results. Further, to realize prediction about the influencing factors whereby NIMBY risk evolves into NIMBY conflict, we then constructed a single system design lens model of NIMBY conflict evolution and prediction. Based on the simulation analysis of 75 collected pieces of valid SJT questionnaire data collected by Policy EXC software, through integration and analysis we obtained the following three predictability cues: government departments closing and not sharing NIMBY information, degree of environmental pollution, and impaired quality of life.
With the increasing urbanization rate in our country, the occurrence of "not in my back yard"(NIMBY) conflict has become intensified, so it is particularly important to analyze the causes of these conflicts.Therefore, to explore the effects of the risk evolution of NIMBY projects on NIMBY conflicts, we have generalized and identified 13 cues(decision reference variables) by summarizing the existing research results. Further, to realize prediction about the influencing factors whereby NIMBY risk evolves into NIMBY conflict, we then constructed a single system design lens model of NIMBY conflict evolution and prediction. Based on the simulation analysis of 75 collected pieces of valid SJT questionnaire data collected by Policy EXC software, through integration and analysis we obtained the following three predictability cues: government departments closing and not sharing NIMBY information, degree of environmental pollution, and impaired quality of life.
引文
[1]孟薇,孔繁斌.邻避冲突的成因分析及其治理工具选择--基于政策利益结构分布的视角[J].江苏行政学院学报,2014(2):119-124.
[2]刘冰.邻避设施选址的公众态度及其影响因素研究[J].南京社会科学,2015(12):62-69.
[3]郑卫.我国邻避设施规划公众参与困境研究--以北京六里屯垃圾焚烧发电厂规划为例[J].城市规划,2013,37(8):66-71.
[4]马奔,李珍珍.邻避设施选址中的公民参与--基于J市的案例研究[J].华南师范大学学报(社会科学版),2016(2):22-29.
[5]郑卫.邻避设施规划之困境--上海磁悬浮事件的个案分析[J].城市规划,2011,35(2):74-81.
[6]晏永刚,娄沪鑫,费倩儒.污染型邻避设施规划建设中引发邻避冲突的影响因素及对策机制研究述评[J].科技管理研究,2017(9):196-202.
[7]马奔.邻避设施选址规划中的协商式治理与决策--从天津港危险品仓库爆炸事故谈起[J].南京社会科学,2015(12):55-61.
[8]毛庆铎,马奔.邻避风险认知偏差与沟通:社会判断理论的视角[J].北京行政学院学报,2017(5):17-23.
[9]田鹏,陈绍军.邻避风险的运作机制研究[J].河海大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2015,17(6):36-42.
[10]吴翠丽.邻避风险的治理困境与协商化解[J].城市问题,2014(2):94-100.
[11]Brunswik E.The conceptual framework of psychology[M].University of Chicago Press,1952.
[12]Hastie,Reid,Hammond,et al.Rational analysis and the Lens model[J].Behavioral&Brain Sciences,1991,14(3):498.
[13]Piaget J,Cook M T.The origins of intelligence in children[J].American Journal of Psychiatry,1953,120(9):934.
[14]Hursch C J,Hammond K R,Hursch J L.Some Methodological Considerations in Multiple-cue Probability Studies[J].Psychological Review,1964,71(1):42-60.
[15]Cooksey R W.The methodology of social judgement theory.[J].Thinking&Reasoning,1996,2(2-3):141-174.
[16]Stewart T R.Judgment analysis:Procedures.B Brehmer,Crb Joyce,2014[C].
[17]何艳玲,陈晓运.从“不怕”到“我怕”:“一般人群”在邻避冲突中如何形成抗争动机[J].学术研究,2012(5):55-63.
[18]王娟,胡志强.公众技术风险认知的实证研究--北京公众对建设垃圾焚烧厂的风险认知调查分析[J].工程研究-跨学科视野中的工程,2012,4(4):382-396.
[19]Slovic P.Perception of Risk from Radiation[J].Radiation Protection Dosimetry,1996,68(3):165-180.
[20]李晓晖.城市邻避性公共设施建设的困境与对策探讨[J].规划师,2009,25(12):80-83.
[21]金艳荣.重大决策社会稳定风险评估功能浅析[J].长白学刊,2013(2):62-65.
[22]马奔,王昕程,卢慧梅.当代中国邻避冲突治理的策略选择--基于对几起典型邻避冲突案例的分析[J].山东大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2014(3):60-67.
[23]黄汇娟.邻避情结与邻避治理--番禺垃圾焚烧厂设置的个案分析[J].广东开放大学学报,2012,21(2):99-104.
[24]Pelekasi T,Menegaki M,Damigos D.Externalities,NIMBY syndrome and marble quarrying activity[J].Journal of Environmental Planning&Management,2012,55(9):1192-1205.
[25]郑卫.邻避设施规划之困境--上海磁悬浮事件的个案分析[J].城市规划,2011,35(2):74-81.
[26]Guidotti T L,Abercrombie S.Aurum:a case study in the politics of NIMBY[J].Waste Management&Research the Journal of the International Solid Wastes&Public Cleansing Association Iswa,2008,26(6):582-588.
[27]Kikuchi R,Gerardo R.More than a decade of conflict between hazardous waste management and public resistance:A case study of NIMBY syndrome in Souselas(Portugal)[J].Journal of Hazardous Materials,2009,172(2-3):1681.
[2]刘冰.邻避设施选址的公众态度及其影响因素研究[J].南京社会科学,2015(12):62-69.
[3]郑卫.我国邻避设施规划公众参与困境研究--以北京六里屯垃圾焚烧发电厂规划为例[J].城市规划,2013,37(8):66-71.
[4]马奔,李珍珍.邻避设施选址中的公民参与--基于J市的案例研究[J].华南师范大学学报(社会科学版),2016(2):22-29.
[5]郑卫.邻避设施规划之困境--上海磁悬浮事件的个案分析[J].城市规划,2011,35(2):74-81.
[6]晏永刚,娄沪鑫,费倩儒.污染型邻避设施规划建设中引发邻避冲突的影响因素及对策机制研究述评[J].科技管理研究,2017(9):196-202.
[7]马奔.邻避设施选址规划中的协商式治理与决策--从天津港危险品仓库爆炸事故谈起[J].南京社会科学,2015(12):55-61.
[8]毛庆铎,马奔.邻避风险认知偏差与沟通:社会判断理论的视角[J].北京行政学院学报,2017(5):17-23.
[9]田鹏,陈绍军.邻避风险的运作机制研究[J].河海大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2015,17(6):36-42.
[10]吴翠丽.邻避风险的治理困境与协商化解[J].城市问题,2014(2):94-100.
[11]Brunswik E.The conceptual framework of psychology[M].University of Chicago Press,1952.
[12]Hastie,Reid,Hammond,et al.Rational analysis and the Lens model[J].Behavioral&Brain Sciences,1991,14(3):498.
[13]Piaget J,Cook M T.The origins of intelligence in children[J].American Journal of Psychiatry,1953,120(9):934.
[14]Hursch C J,Hammond K R,Hursch J L.Some Methodological Considerations in Multiple-cue Probability Studies[J].Psychological Review,1964,71(1):42-60.
[15]Cooksey R W.The methodology of social judgement theory.[J].Thinking&Reasoning,1996,2(2-3):141-174.
[16]Stewart T R.Judgment analysis:Procedures.B Brehmer,Crb Joyce,2014[C].
[17]何艳玲,陈晓运.从“不怕”到“我怕”:“一般人群”在邻避冲突中如何形成抗争动机[J].学术研究,2012(5):55-63.
[18]王娟,胡志强.公众技术风险认知的实证研究--北京公众对建设垃圾焚烧厂的风险认知调查分析[J].工程研究-跨学科视野中的工程,2012,4(4):382-396.
[19]Slovic P.Perception of Risk from Radiation[J].Radiation Protection Dosimetry,1996,68(3):165-180.
[20]李晓晖.城市邻避性公共设施建设的困境与对策探讨[J].规划师,2009,25(12):80-83.
[21]金艳荣.重大决策社会稳定风险评估功能浅析[J].长白学刊,2013(2):62-65.
[22]马奔,王昕程,卢慧梅.当代中国邻避冲突治理的策略选择--基于对几起典型邻避冲突案例的分析[J].山东大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2014(3):60-67.
[23]黄汇娟.邻避情结与邻避治理--番禺垃圾焚烧厂设置的个案分析[J].广东开放大学学报,2012,21(2):99-104.
[24]Pelekasi T,Menegaki M,Damigos D.Externalities,NIMBY syndrome and marble quarrying activity[J].Journal of Environmental Planning&Management,2012,55(9):1192-1205.
[25]郑卫.邻避设施规划之困境--上海磁悬浮事件的个案分析[J].城市规划,2011,35(2):74-81.
[26]Guidotti T L,Abercrombie S.Aurum:a case study in the politics of NIMBY[J].Waste Management&Research the Journal of the International Solid Wastes&Public Cleansing Association Iswa,2008,26(6):582-588.
[27]Kikuchi R,Gerardo R.More than a decade of conflict between hazardous waste management and public resistance:A case study of NIMBY syndrome in Souselas(Portugal)[J].Journal of Hazardous Materials,2009,172(2-3):1681.
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