气候变化与我国海洋灾害风险治理探讨
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摘要
本文基于观测数据和文献资料,分析了近几十年来气候变化下我国沿海海平面和海表温度,以及台风、风暴潮和赤潮等主要致灾因子及灾害损失的变化。结果表明,近40年来,我国沿海海平面和海表温度显著上升,上升速率分别为3.3 mm/a和0.016°C/a,高于全球平均和我国的历史变化水平,2017年中国沿海的海表温度达到了1960年有记录以来的最高值,并且自2000年以来,超强台风、风暴潮和赤潮等致灾事件的发生频次呈显著增加趋势;气候变化下,受关键海洋环境要素变迁和超强台风、风暴潮等极端事件的影响,我国沿海地区暴露度明显加大。随着我国海洋防灾减灾水平的提高,近30年来海洋灾害损失出现下降趋势。值得指出的是,每年各类海洋灾害总损失仍高达百亿元量级(年均直接经济损失约120亿元),其中,2005年总损失达到最高值,约332亿元,这与致灾事件的强度以及各致灾事件、灾种的叠加放大效应有密切关系。本文进一步从气候变化综合风险理论角度出发,结合海岸带及沿海地区致灾因子危险性、承灾体暴露度和脆弱性及其相互作用关系,分析了气候变化背景下我国沿海地区海洋灾害风险的特征,探讨了有关海洋灾害的监测、预测预警和风险治理能力建设等若干科学问题,以期为我国沿海地区社会经济的可持续发展提供科学参考。
Based on lasted observations and research literatures, the variations of the key environmental hazard elements in the coastal China seas(CCS)such as sea level, sea surface temperature, super typhoons, storm surges and red tides, as well as total economic losses of marine disasters under the climate change in the recent decades was briefly analyzed. The results show that in the past 40 years, sea level and surface temperature in the CCS have increased significantly, with the rate of 3.3 mm/year and 0.016 ℃/year, respectively, higher than the global average and the historical mean in the CCS. The recordbreaking SST along the coastal China in 2017 was the highest observation since 1960. The frequency of disasters caused by super-typhoons, storm surges and red tides has increased significantly since 2000. Under the influence of changes in the key marine environmental hazards and extreme events such as super typhoons and storm surges, the exposure of the coastal China areas has amplified greatly. With the improvement of marine disaster prevention and reduction measures in the coastal China area, the economic loss of marine disasters has been decreasing in the past 30 years. However, it is worth pointing out that the annual total economic loss of various marine disasters is still as much as 10 billion RMB(about 12 billion RMB of direct economic loss per year), of which the total economic loss reached the largest in 2005, about 33.2 billion RMB. This is closely related to the intensity of the disasters and the superposition and amplification effect of multiple disasters. Based on the risk of climate-related impacts from the interaction of climate-related hazard with the exposure and vulnerability of coastal human and natural systems in coastal areas,this paper further analyzes the characteristics of marine disaster risks in the coastal China areas under the background of climate change. And some scientific issues concerning marine disaster monitoring,prediction, early warning and capacity building of marine risk governance are discussed in order to provide scientific reference for the sustainable development of economy and society in the coastal China areas.
Based on lasted observations and research literatures, the variations of the key environmental hazard elements in the coastal China seas(CCS)such as sea level, sea surface temperature, super typhoons, storm surges and red tides, as well as total economic losses of marine disasters under the climate change in the recent decades was briefly analyzed. The results show that in the past 40 years, sea level and surface temperature in the CCS have increased significantly, with the rate of 3.3 mm/year and 0.016 ℃/year, respectively, higher than the global average and the historical mean in the CCS. The recordbreaking SST along the coastal China in 2017 was the highest observation since 1960. The frequency of disasters caused by super-typhoons, storm surges and red tides has increased significantly since 2000. Under the influence of changes in the key marine environmental hazards and extreme events such as super typhoons and storm surges, the exposure of the coastal China areas has amplified greatly. With the improvement of marine disaster prevention and reduction measures in the coastal China area, the economic loss of marine disasters has been decreasing in the past 30 years. However, it is worth pointing out that the annual total economic loss of various marine disasters is still as much as 10 billion RMB(about 12 billion RMB of direct economic loss per year), of which the total economic loss reached the largest in 2005, about 33.2 billion RMB. This is closely related to the intensity of the disasters and the superposition and amplification effect of multiple disasters. Based on the risk of climate-related impacts from the interaction of climate-related hazard with the exposure and vulnerability of coastal human and natural systems in coastal areas,this paper further analyzes the characteristics of marine disaster risks in the coastal China areas under the background of climate change. And some scientific issues concerning marine disaster monitoring,prediction, early warning and capacity building of marine risk governance are discussed in order to provide scientific reference for the sustainable development of economy and society in the coastal China areas.
引文
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Cai R S,Tan H J,Qi Q,2016.Impacts of and adaptation to inter-decadal marine climate change in coastal China seas.International Journal of Climatology,36(11):3770-3780.
Hoegh-Guldberg O,Cai R S,Poloczanska E,et al,2014.The ocean//Climate change 2014:Impacts,adaptation,and vulnerability.Part B:Regional Aspects.Contri-bution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.U K and New York,USA:Cambridge University Press:1655-1731.
IPCC,2013.Climate Change 2013:The Physical Science Basic Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.Cambridge,United Kingdom and New York,USA:Cambridge University Press.
Ma Z,Xu Z,Zhou J,2009.Effect of global warming on the distribution of Lucifer intermedius and L.hanseni(Decapoda)in the Changjiang estuary.Progress in Natural Science:Materials International,19(10):1389-1395.
Tan H J,2018.What caused the record-breaking warming in East China Seas during August 2016?.Atmospheric Science Letters.19(10):1-8.
蔡榕硕,付迪,2018.全球变暖背景下中国东部气候变迁及其对物候的影响.大气科学,42(4):729-740.
蔡榕硕,李本霞,方伟华,等,2017.中国海岸带和沿海地区全球变化综合风险研究.中国基础科学,(6):24-29.
蔡榕硕,齐庆华,2014.气候变化与全球海洋:影响、适应和脆弱性评估之解读.气候变化研究进展,10(3):185-190.
蔡榕硕,齐庆华,谭红建,2015.气候变化与亚太海洋区域:影响·适应·风险管理.应用海洋学学报,34(1):141-149.
陈杰,胡澜,2018.中国特色社会主义生态文明建设的实现路径.学理论,(1):19-21.
国家海洋局,2018a.1989-2017年中国海洋灾害公报.http://www.soa.gov.cn/zwgk/hygb/zghyzhgb/
国家海洋局,2018b.2017年中国海平面公报.http://www.soa.gov.cn/zwgk/hygb/zghpmgb/201804/t20180423_61104.html
国家海洋局海洋发展战略研究课题组,2014.中国海洋发展报告(2014).北京:海洋出版社.
金显仕,窦硕增,单秀娟,等,2015.我国近海渔业资源可持续产出基础研究的热点问题.渔业科学进展,36(1):124-131.
李琰,范文静,骆敬新,等,2018.2017年中国近海海温和气温气候特征分析.海洋通报,37(3):296-302.
卢振彬,戴泉水,2002.台湾海峡及其邻近海域渔业资源生产力和最大持续产量.中国水产科学,9(1):28-32.
牛海燕,刘敏,陆敏,等,2011.中国沿海地区近20年台风灾害风险评价.地理科学,(6):764-768.
齐庆华,蔡榕硕,2017a.21世纪海上丝绸之路海表温度异常与气候变率的相关性初探.海洋开发与管理,34(4):41-49.
齐庆华,蔡榕硕,2017b.21世纪海上丝绸之路海洋环境的气候变化与风暴灾害风险探析.海洋开发与管理,34(5):67-75.
《第三次气候变化国家评估报告》编写委员会,2015.第三次气候变化国家评估报告.北京:科学出版社.
秦大河,2015.中国极端天气气候事件和灾害风险管理与适应国家评估报告.北京:科学出版社,2015.
谭丽荣,陈珂,王军,等,2011.近20年来沿海地区风暴潮灾害脆弱性评价.地理科学,(9):1111-1117.
王康发生,尹占娥,殷杰,2011.海平面上升背景下中国沿海台风风暴潮脆弱性分析.热带海洋学报,30(6):31-36.
王丽荣,于红兵,李翠田,等,2018.海洋生态系统修复研究进展.应用海洋学学报,37(3):435-446.
徐兆礼,2006.东海亚强真哲水蚤种群生态特征.生态学报,26(4):1151-1158.
于保华,李宜良,姜丽,2006.21世纪中国城市海洋灾害防御战略研究.华南地震,26(1):67-75.
余克服,蒋明星,程志强,等,2004.涠洲岛42年来海面温度变化及其对珊瑚礁的影响.应用生态学报,15(3):506-510.
张晓龙,李培英,李萍,等,2005.中国滨海湿地研究现状与展望.海洋科学进展,23(1):87-95.
张学敏,商少平,张彩云,等,2005.闽南-台湾浅滩渔场海表温度对鲐鲹鱼类群聚资源年际变动的影响初探.海洋通报,24(4):91-96.
Cai R S,Tan H J,Qi Q,2016.Impacts of and adaptation to inter-decadal marine climate change in coastal China seas.International Journal of Climatology,36(11):3770-3780.
Hoegh-Guldberg O,Cai R S,Poloczanska E,et al,2014.The ocean//Climate change 2014:Impacts,adaptation,and vulnerability.Part B:Regional Aspects.Contri-bution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.U K and New York,USA:Cambridge University Press:1655-1731.
IPCC,2013.Climate Change 2013:The Physical Science Basic Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.Cambridge,United Kingdom and New York,USA:Cambridge University Press.
Ma Z,Xu Z,Zhou J,2009.Effect of global warming on the distribution of Lucifer intermedius and L.hanseni(Decapoda)in the Changjiang estuary.Progress in Natural Science:Materials International,19(10):1389-1395.
Tan H J,2018.What caused the record-breaking warming in East China Seas during August 2016?.Atmospheric Science Letters.19(10):1-8.
蔡榕硕,付迪,2018.全球变暖背景下中国东部气候变迁及其对物候的影响.大气科学,42(4):729-740.
蔡榕硕,李本霞,方伟华,等,2017.中国海岸带和沿海地区全球变化综合风险研究.中国基础科学,(6):24-29.
蔡榕硕,齐庆华,2014.气候变化与全球海洋:影响、适应和脆弱性评估之解读.气候变化研究进展,10(3):185-190.
蔡榕硕,齐庆华,谭红建,2015.气候变化与亚太海洋区域:影响·适应·风险管理.应用海洋学学报,34(1):141-149.
陈杰,胡澜,2018.中国特色社会主义生态文明建设的实现路径.学理论,(1):19-21.
国家海洋局,2018a.1989-2017年中国海洋灾害公报.http://www.soa.gov.cn/zwgk/hygb/zghyzhgb/
国家海洋局,2018b.2017年中国海平面公报.http://www.soa.gov.cn/zwgk/hygb/zghpmgb/201804/t20180423_61104.html
国家海洋局海洋发展战略研究课题组,2014.中国海洋发展报告(2014).北京:海洋出版社.
金显仕,窦硕增,单秀娟,等,2015.我国近海渔业资源可持续产出基础研究的热点问题.渔业科学进展,36(1):124-131.
李琰,范文静,骆敬新,等,2018.2017年中国近海海温和气温气候特征分析.海洋通报,37(3):296-302.
卢振彬,戴泉水,2002.台湾海峡及其邻近海域渔业资源生产力和最大持续产量.中国水产科学,9(1):28-32.
牛海燕,刘敏,陆敏,等,2011.中国沿海地区近20年台风灾害风险评价.地理科学,(6):764-768.
齐庆华,蔡榕硕,2017a.21世纪海上丝绸之路海表温度异常与气候变率的相关性初探.海洋开发与管理,34(4):41-49.
齐庆华,蔡榕硕,2017b.21世纪海上丝绸之路海洋环境的气候变化与风暴灾害风险探析.海洋开发与管理,34(5):67-75.
《第三次气候变化国家评估报告》编写委员会,2015.第三次气候变化国家评估报告.北京:科学出版社.
秦大河,2015.中国极端天气气候事件和灾害风险管理与适应国家评估报告.北京:科学出版社,2015.
谭丽荣,陈珂,王军,等,2011.近20年来沿海地区风暴潮灾害脆弱性评价.地理科学,(9):1111-1117.
王康发生,尹占娥,殷杰,2011.海平面上升背景下中国沿海台风风暴潮脆弱性分析.热带海洋学报,30(6):31-36.
王丽荣,于红兵,李翠田,等,2018.海洋生态系统修复研究进展.应用海洋学学报,37(3):435-446.
徐兆礼,2006.东海亚强真哲水蚤种群生态特征.生态学报,26(4):1151-1158.
于保华,李宜良,姜丽,2006.21世纪中国城市海洋灾害防御战略研究.华南地震,26(1):67-75.
余克服,蒋明星,程志强,等,2004.涠洲岛42年来海面温度变化及其对珊瑚礁的影响.应用生态学报,15(3):506-510.
张晓龙,李培英,李萍,等,2005.中国滨海湿地研究现状与展望.海洋科学进展,23(1):87-95.
张学敏,商少平,张彩云,等,2005.闽南-台湾浅滩渔场海表温度对鲐鲹鱼类群聚资源年际变动的影响初探.海洋通报,24(4):91-96.