高房价、土地财政与房住不炒:房地产税能抑制房价吗?
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摘要
关于房地产税能否抑制房价的研究普遍存在期限混淆和现实数据匮乏的难题,造成研究结论各不相同。本文采用家庭微观数据和地区宏观数据,区分房地产税推出后的短期和长期影响并分别进行了理论和实证分析,发现:其一,房地产税推行之初,将会带来存量房供给的一次性释放,短期内供需失衡将造成房价回调,回调幅度存在区域异质性,相比经济发达地区和经济落后地区,中等经济水平地区受影响的程度最大;其二,随着市场供需达到新的均衡,在房地产税平稳运行之后,地方政府将成为影响房价长期走势的关键因素,随着地方政府对房地产的财政依赖程度的进一步加强,反而会在长期推高房价水平。因此,房地产税改革的着眼点要放在调节公平和完善税制上,无论是长期还是短期,房地产税调控房价的功能均不符合中央的治理初衷和政策预期。
It seems a common problem of duration specification and data access for most research on whether the real estate tax can curb the increasing house prices,which results in different conclusions.This paper combines family micro data and regional macro data and makes a theoretical and empirical analysis respectively basing on the short-term and long-term effects of the real estate tax after the introduction of the real estate tax.The findings are as follows:Firstly,at the beginning of the implementation,the real estate tax will bring a one-time supply surge.In the short term,the imbalance between supply and demand will result in price-cut of housing.Compared with the economically developed area and economically undeveloped area,the middle economic level areas are most significantly affected.Secondly,with the market supply and demand reaching a new balance and the real estate tax operating steadily,the local government will become the key factor for the long-term trend of housing price.As the local government relies more on land finance,it will push up the price level in the long run.Generally speaking,it's suggested that the focus of real estate tax reform should be on regulating fairness and improving the tax system.Whether in the long run or in the short run,the function of real estate tax in regulating housing prices does not meet the central government's original intention and policy expectations.
It seems a common problem of duration specification and data access for most research on whether the real estate tax can curb the increasing house prices,which results in different conclusions.This paper combines family micro data and regional macro data and makes a theoretical and empirical analysis respectively basing on the short-term and long-term effects of the real estate tax after the introduction of the real estate tax.The findings are as follows:Firstly,at the beginning of the implementation,the real estate tax will bring a one-time supply surge.In the short term,the imbalance between supply and demand will result in price-cut of housing.Compared with the economically developed area and economically undeveloped area,the middle economic level areas are most significantly affected.Secondly,with the market supply and demand reaching a new balance and the real estate tax operating steadily,the local government will become the key factor for the long-term trend of housing price.As the local government relies more on land finance,it will push up the price level in the long run.Generally speaking,it's suggested that the focus of real estate tax reform should be on regulating fairness and improving the tax system.Whether in the long run or in the short run,the function of real estate tax in regulating housing prices does not meet the central government's original intention and policy expectations.
引文
[1]陈舜.我国房产税改革的目标辨析与政策建议——基于国家治理视角[J].经济与管理评论,2016(3):104-109.
[2]骆永民,伍文中.房产税改革与房价变动的宏观经济效应——基于DSGE模型的数值模拟分析[J].金融研究,2012(5):1-14.
[3]朱孔来,张琳娜.浅议征收房产税对未来房价的影响[J].城市发展研究,2011(6):133-135+140.
[4]况伟大.房产税、地价与房价[J].中国软科学,2012(4):25-37.
[5]Simon H A.The Incidence of a Tax on Urban Real Property[J].The Quarterly Journal of Economics,1943,57(3):398-420.
[6]Netzer D.Economics of the Property Tax[M].Washington, D. C:BrookingsInstitution,1966:145-160.
[7]Oates W E.The Effects of Property Taxes and Local Public Spending on Property Values:An Empirical Study of Tax Capitalization and the Tiebout Hypothesis[J].Journal of Political Economy,1969,77(6):957-971.
[8]Yinger J.Capitalization and the Theory of Local Public Finance[J].Journal of Political Economy,1982,90(5):917-943.
[9]Zodrow G R.Local Provision of Public Services:The Tiebout Model after Twenty-Five Years[M].New York:Academic Press,1983:85-107.
[10]Fischel W A.Property Taxation and the Tiebout Model Evidence for the Benefit View from Zoning and Voting[J].Journal of Economic Literature,1992,30(1):171-177.
[11]周黎安.转型中的地方政府:官员激励与治理[M].上海:格致出版社&上海人民出版社,2008:298-306.
[12]鲁建坤,李永友.超越财税问题:从国家治理的角度看中国财政体制垂直不平衡[J].社会学研究,2018(2):62-87.
[13]王学龙,杨文.中国的土地财政与房地产价格波动——基于国际比较的实证分析[J].经济评论,2012(4):88-96.
[14]赵文哲,杨继东.地方政府财政缺口与土地出让方式——基于地方政府与国有企业互利行为的解释[J].管理世界,2015(4):11-24.
[15]刘金东.中国税收超GDP增长的因素研究[M].北京:中国税务出版社,2014:151-152.
[16]邓郁松.住房市场发展阶段、波动与风险[M].北京:科学出版社,2016:41-47.
[17]王敏,黄滢.限购和房产税对房价的影响:基于长期动态均衡的分析[J].世界经济,2013(1):141-159.
[18]何杨.中国房地产税改革[M].北京:中国税务出版社,2017:96-102.
[19]刘甲炎,范子英.中国房产税试点的效果评估:基于合成控制法的研究[J].世界经济,2013(11):117-135.
[20]Bai ChongEn,Li Qi,Ouyang Ming.Property Taxes and Home Prices:A Tale of Two Cities[J].Journal of Econometrics,2014,180(1):1-15.
[21]Campbell J Y,Shiller R J.The Dividend-Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount Factors[J].The Review of Financial Studies,1988,1(3):195-228.
[22]Campbell S D,Davis M A,Gallin J,et al.What Moves Housing Markets:A Variance Decomposition of the Rent-price Ratio[J].Journal of Urban Economics,2009,66(2):90-102.
[23]Gao Lu.Achievements and Challenges:30Years of Housing Reforms in the People’s Republic of China[C]∥Asian Development Bank Economics Working Paper.Manila:ADB,2010:198.
[24]Li J,Chiang Y H,Choy L.Central-Local Conflict and Property Cycle:A Chinese Style[J].Habitat International,2011,35(1):126-132.
[25]雷根强,钱日帆.土地财政对房地产开发投资与商品房销售价格的影响分析——来自中国地级市面板数据的经验证据[J].财贸经济,2014,35(10):5-16.
[26]卡梅扎·加洛.智利的税收谈判与硝酸盐出口(1880-1930年)[M]//布罗蒂加姆等主编.卢军坪、毛道根译.发展中国家的税收与国家构建.上海:上海财经大学出版社,2016:145-165.
[27]刘洪玉,杨帆.中国主要城市住房供给价格弹性估计与比较研究[J].社会科学辑刊,2012(6):112-119.
[28]胡怡建,刘金东.存量资产、虚拟经济与税收超GDP增长之谜[J].财贸经济,2013(5):5-15.
[29]袁国敏.虚拟经济统计核算:理论与方法[M].北京:经济科学出版社,2009:56-58.
[30]刘金东,冯经纶.中国税收超GDP增长的因素分解研究——基于Divisia指数分解方法[J].财经研究,2014(2):30-40.
[31]吴洵,俞乔.地方政府债务风险溢价研究[J].财政研究,2017(1):89-102.
[32]F9lster S,Henrekson M.Growth Effects of Government Expenditure and Taxation in Rich Countries[J].European Economic Review,2001,45(8):1501-1520.
(1)在世界范围内有两种主流的房地产税计征模式:一是房产税和土地税分别计征的法国模式,二是房产税和土地税合并计征的美国模式,后者即被称为"房地产税"。本文所研究的"房地产税"对应于广义的房屋持有环节税,故而两种模式在本文的语境下并无本质差别,后文也不再对两者作精确划分,均以"房地产税"称之。
[2]骆永民,伍文中.房产税改革与房价变动的宏观经济效应——基于DSGE模型的数值模拟分析[J].金融研究,2012(5):1-14.
[3]朱孔来,张琳娜.浅议征收房产税对未来房价的影响[J].城市发展研究,2011(6):133-135+140.
[4]况伟大.房产税、地价与房价[J].中国软科学,2012(4):25-37.
[5]Simon H A.The Incidence of a Tax on Urban Real Property[J].The Quarterly Journal of Economics,1943,57(3):398-420.
[6]Netzer D.Economics of the Property Tax[M].Washington, D. C:BrookingsInstitution,1966:145-160.
[7]Oates W E.The Effects of Property Taxes and Local Public Spending on Property Values:An Empirical Study of Tax Capitalization and the Tiebout Hypothesis[J].Journal of Political Economy,1969,77(6):957-971.
[8]Yinger J.Capitalization and the Theory of Local Public Finance[J].Journal of Political Economy,1982,90(5):917-943.
[9]Zodrow G R.Local Provision of Public Services:The Tiebout Model after Twenty-Five Years[M].New York:Academic Press,1983:85-107.
[10]Fischel W A.Property Taxation and the Tiebout Model Evidence for the Benefit View from Zoning and Voting[J].Journal of Economic Literature,1992,30(1):171-177.
[11]周黎安.转型中的地方政府:官员激励与治理[M].上海:格致出版社&上海人民出版社,2008:298-306.
[12]鲁建坤,李永友.超越财税问题:从国家治理的角度看中国财政体制垂直不平衡[J].社会学研究,2018(2):62-87.
[13]王学龙,杨文.中国的土地财政与房地产价格波动——基于国际比较的实证分析[J].经济评论,2012(4):88-96.
[14]赵文哲,杨继东.地方政府财政缺口与土地出让方式——基于地方政府与国有企业互利行为的解释[J].管理世界,2015(4):11-24.
[15]刘金东.中国税收超GDP增长的因素研究[M].北京:中国税务出版社,2014:151-152.
[16]邓郁松.住房市场发展阶段、波动与风险[M].北京:科学出版社,2016:41-47.
[17]王敏,黄滢.限购和房产税对房价的影响:基于长期动态均衡的分析[J].世界经济,2013(1):141-159.
[18]何杨.中国房地产税改革[M].北京:中国税务出版社,2017:96-102.
[19]刘甲炎,范子英.中国房产税试点的效果评估:基于合成控制法的研究[J].世界经济,2013(11):117-135.
[20]Bai ChongEn,Li Qi,Ouyang Ming.Property Taxes and Home Prices:A Tale of Two Cities[J].Journal of Econometrics,2014,180(1):1-15.
[21]Campbell J Y,Shiller R J.The Dividend-Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount Factors[J].The Review of Financial Studies,1988,1(3):195-228.
[22]Campbell S D,Davis M A,Gallin J,et al.What Moves Housing Markets:A Variance Decomposition of the Rent-price Ratio[J].Journal of Urban Economics,2009,66(2):90-102.
[23]Gao Lu.Achievements and Challenges:30Years of Housing Reforms in the People’s Republic of China[C]∥Asian Development Bank Economics Working Paper.Manila:ADB,2010:198.
[24]Li J,Chiang Y H,Choy L.Central-Local Conflict and Property Cycle:A Chinese Style[J].Habitat International,2011,35(1):126-132.
[25]雷根强,钱日帆.土地财政对房地产开发投资与商品房销售价格的影响分析——来自中国地级市面板数据的经验证据[J].财贸经济,2014,35(10):5-16.
[26]卡梅扎·加洛.智利的税收谈判与硝酸盐出口(1880-1930年)[M]//布罗蒂加姆等主编.卢军坪、毛道根译.发展中国家的税收与国家构建.上海:上海财经大学出版社,2016:145-165.
[27]刘洪玉,杨帆.中国主要城市住房供给价格弹性估计与比较研究[J].社会科学辑刊,2012(6):112-119.
[28]胡怡建,刘金东.存量资产、虚拟经济与税收超GDP增长之谜[J].财贸经济,2013(5):5-15.
[29]袁国敏.虚拟经济统计核算:理论与方法[M].北京:经济科学出版社,2009:56-58.
[30]刘金东,冯经纶.中国税收超GDP增长的因素分解研究——基于Divisia指数分解方法[J].财经研究,2014(2):30-40.
[31]吴洵,俞乔.地方政府债务风险溢价研究[J].财政研究,2017(1):89-102.
[32]F9lster S,Henrekson M.Growth Effects of Government Expenditure and Taxation in Rich Countries[J].European Economic Review,2001,45(8):1501-1520.
(1)在世界范围内有两种主流的房地产税计征模式:一是房产税和土地税分别计征的法国模式,二是房产税和土地税合并计征的美国模式,后者即被称为"房地产税"。本文所研究的"房地产税"对应于广义的房屋持有环节税,故而两种模式在本文的语境下并无本质差别,后文也不再对两者作精确划分,均以"房地产税"称之。
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