近56 a新疆北部地区气候变化特征
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摘要
根据新疆北部40个站点1961—2016年逐日气温、降水数据,采用数理统计、倾向率法、Mann-Kendall突变检验和小波分析等方法,研究北疆地区近56 a气候变化特征、变化趋势以及变化的空间差异。结果表明:在研究时段内,气候总体呈气温升高、降水量增加的暖湿化趋势,年平均气温以0. 34℃·(10a)~(-1)速率上升,年降水量递增速率12. 05 mm·(10a)~(-1); Mann-Kendall突变检验显示,气温在1991年发生突变后升高,降水量1987年出现突变后逐渐增多;年平均气温变化表现出6 a、14 a和28 a周期性规律,降水量变化有4 a、12 a和22 a的规律;在空间上,气温增速东西大于南北,降水量增量山区多于平原和盆地,西部多于东部。
The mathematical statistics,trend rate method,Mann-Kendall mutation test and wavelet analysis were used to study the characteristics,trends and spatial difference of climate change in North Xinjiang in the past 56 years based on the daily temperature and precipitation data from 40 stations in North Xinjiang from 1961 to 2016. The results showed that,during the study period,there was generally a warming-wetting climate change trend. The annual average temperature increased by 0. 34 ℃ ·( 10 a)~(-1),and the increase rate of annual precipitation was 12. 05 mm·( 10 a)~(-1). Mann-Kendall mutation test showed that the temperature increased after 1991,and the precipitation increased gradually after its mutation in 1987; there were the 6-,14-and 28-year periodical changes of annual mean temperature,and the 4-,12-and 22-year ones of annual precipitation. In terms of spatial differences,the temperature increase was higher in the east and west than that in the north and south,and the precipitation increase was higher in the mountainous regions than that in the plains and basins and higher in the west than that in the east.
The mathematical statistics,trend rate method,Mann-Kendall mutation test and wavelet analysis were used to study the characteristics,trends and spatial difference of climate change in North Xinjiang in the past 56 years based on the daily temperature and precipitation data from 40 stations in North Xinjiang from 1961 to 2016. The results showed that,during the study period,there was generally a warming-wetting climate change trend. The annual average temperature increased by 0. 34 ℃ ·( 10 a)~(-1),and the increase rate of annual precipitation was 12. 05 mm·( 10 a)~(-1). Mann-Kendall mutation test showed that the temperature increased after 1991,and the precipitation increased gradually after its mutation in 1987; there were the 6-,14-and 28-year periodical changes of annual mean temperature,and the 4-,12-and 22-year ones of annual precipitation. In terms of spatial differences,the temperature increase was higher in the east and west than that in the north and south,and the precipitation increase was higher in the mountainous regions than that in the plains and basins and higher in the west than that in the east.
引文
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[27]张山清,普宗朝,李景林,等.气候变暖背景下新疆无霜冻期时空变化分析[J].资源科学,2013,35(9):1 908-1 916.[Zhang Shanqing,Pu Zongchao,Li Jinglin,et al.The impact of global warming on frost-free periods from 1961 to 2010 in warming[J].Resources Science,2013,35(9):1 908-1 916.]
[28]韩颖,侯向阳.内蒙古荒漠草原牧户对气候变化的感知和适应[J].应用生态学报,2011,22(4):913-922.[Han Ying,Hou Xiangyang.Perceptions and adaptation strategies of herders in desert steppe of Inner Mongolia to climate change[J].Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology,2011,22(4):913-922.]
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[2]Ji Fei,Wu Zhaohua,Huang Jianping,et al.Evolution of landsurface air temperature trend[J].Nature Climate Change,2014,4(6):462-466.
[3]丁一汇,任国玉,石广玉,等.气候变化国家评估报告(1):中国气候变化的历史和未来趋势[J].气候变化研究进展,2006,2(1):3-8.[Ding Yihui,Ren Guoyu,Shi Guangyu,et al.National assessment report ofclimate change(1):Climate change in China and itsfuture trend[J].Advances in Climate Change Research,2006,2(1):3-8.]
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[5]王绍武,叶瑾琳,龚道溢.近百年中国气温序列的建立[J].应用气象学报,1998,9(4):392-401.[Wang Shaowu,Ye Jinlin,Gong Daoyi.Construction of mean annual temperature series for the last one hundred years in China[J].Quarterly Journal of Applied Meteorology,1998,9(4):392-401.]
[6]Piao S L,Ciais P,Huang Y,et al.The impacts of climate change on water resources and agriculture in China[J].Nature,2010,467:43-51.
[7]普宗朝,张山清.1961-2008年新疆夏半年干湿气候时空变化[J].干旱区资源与环境,2011,25(9):138-144.[Pu Zongchao,Zhang Shanqing.Spatial-temporal variationof dry-wet climate on summer in recent 48 years in Xinjiang[J].Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment,2011,25(9):138-144.]
[8]何毅,杨太保,陈杰,等.1955-2012年南北疆气温、降水及相对湿度趋势分析[J].水土保持研究,2015,22(2):269-277.[He Yi,Yang Taibao,Chen Jie,et al.Long-term trend of temperature,precipitation and relative humidity in Northern and Southern regions of the Xinjiang from 1955 to 2012[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2015,22(2):269-277.]
[9]何毅,杨太保,陈杰,等.1960-2013年南北疆风速变化特征分析[J].干旱区地理,2015,38(2):249-259.[He Yi,Yang Taibao,Chen Jie,et al.Wind speed in the north and south Xinjiang from 1960 to 2013[J].Arid Land Geography,2015,38(2):249-259.]
[10]李景林,普宗朝,张山清,等.近52年北疆气候变化对棉花种植气候适宜性分区的影响[J].棉花学报,2015,27(1):22-30.[Li Jinglin,Pu Zongchao,Zhang Shanqing,et al.Impact of climate change on cotton-planting zoning in Northern Xinjiang during1961-2012[J].Cotton Science,2015,27(1):22-30.]
[11]罗那那,巴特尔·巴克,吴燕锋.基于标准化降水指数的北疆地区近52年旱涝变化特征[J].水土保持研究,2017,24(2):293-299.[Luo Nana,Bartle Barker,Wu Yanfeng.Analysis on spatiotemporal characteristics of drought-flood based on standard precipitation index in Northern Xinjiang in recent 52 years[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2017,24(2):293-299.]
[12]邱海军,曹明明,刘闻.基于EOF的陕西省降水变化时空分异研究[J].水土保持通报,2011,31(3):57-59.[Qiu Haijun,Cao Mingming,Liu Wen.Analyzing spatial and temporal distributions of in Shaanxi province using empirical orthogonal function[J].Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation,2011,31(3):57-59.]
[13]刘贤赵,张安定,李嘉竹.地理学数学方法[M].北京:科学出版社,2009:127-138.[Liu Xianzhao,Zhang Anding,Li Jiazhu.Mathematical Methods of Geography[M].Beijing:Science Press,2009:127-138.]
[14]申倩倩,束炯,王行恒.上海地区近136年气温和降水量变化的多尺度分析[J].自然资源学报,2011,26(4):644-654.[Shen Qianqian,Shu Jiong,Wang Xingheng.Multiple time scales analysis of temperature and precipitation variation in Shanghai for the recent 136 years[J].Journal of Natural Resources,2011,26(4):644-654.]
[15]刘晓琼,刘彦随,李同昇,等.1974-2012年陕西省榆林市气候变化统计特征[J].中国沙漠,2016,36(2):1-6.[Liu Xiaoqiong,Liu Yansui,Li Tongsheng,et al.Statistical characteristics of climate change during 1974-2012 in Yulin,Shaanxi,China[J].Journal of Desert Research,2016,36(2):1-6.]
[16]陈鹏翔,毛炜峄.基于GIS的新疆气温数据栅格化方法研究[J].干旱区地理,2012,35(3):438-445.[Chen Pengxiang,Mao Weiyi.GIS-based spatial interpolation of air temperature in Xinjiang Based on GIS[J].Arid Land Geography,2012,35(3):438-445.]
[17]普宗朝,张山清,宾建华,等.新疆乌-昌地区干湿气候要素时空变化分析[J].资源科学,2011,33(12):2 314-2 322.[Pu Zongchao,Zhang Shanqing,Bin Jianhua,et al.Spatiotemporal variations in dry-wet climatic variables over Urumqi-Changji Region of Xinjiang[J].Resources Science,2011,33(12):2 314-2 322.]
[18]周秉荣,颜亮东,张海静,等.热量资源栅格化技术在青海高原地区的应用[J].青海气象,2010(2):10-15.[Zhou Bingrong,Yan Liangdong,Zhang Haijing,et al.Application of thermal resource rasterization technology in Qinghai Plateau[J].Qinghai Meteorology,2010(2):10-15.]
[19]任国玉,郭军,徐铭志,等.近50中国地面气候变化基本特征[J].气象学报,2005,63(6):943-956.[Ren Guoyu,Guo Jun,Xu Mingzhi,et al.Climate changes of China’s main land over the past half century[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica,2005,63(6):943-956.]
[20]潘国营,秦永泰,马亚芬,等.基于R/S和Morlet小波分析的丹河径流变化特征研究[J].水资源与水工程学报,2015,26(3):41-45,50.[Pan Guoying,Qin Yongtai,Ma Yafen,et al.Research on variation characteristics of runoff in Danhe river basin based on R/S and Morlet wavelet analysis[J].Journal of Water Resources and Water Engineering,2015,26(3):41-45,50.]
[21]普宗朝,张山清,王胜兰,等.近48 a新疆干湿气候时空变化特征[J].中国沙漠,2011,31(6):1 563-1 572.[Pu Zongchao,Zhang Shanqing,Wang Shenglan,et al.The spatial-temporal variation characteristics of dry-wet climate in recent 48 years in Xinjiang province,China[J].Journal of Desert Research,2011,31(6):1 563-1 572.]
[22]李珍,姜逢清.1961-2004年新疆气候突变分析[J].冰川冻土,2007,29(3):351-359.[Li Zhen,Jiang Fengqing.A study of abrupt climate change in Xinjiang region during 1961-2004[J].Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2007,29(3):351-359.]
[23]毛炜峄,陈鹏翔,白素琴.增暖趋势对新疆冬季气温预测效果的影响[J].干旱区研究,2014,31(5):882-890.[Mao Weiyi,Chen Pengxiang,Bai Suqin.Influence of warming trend on the predicted temperature in winter in Xinjiang[J].Arid Zone Research,2014,31(5):882-890.]
[24]关学锋,孙卫国,李敏姣,等.1965-2012年新疆北部地区气候变化及其对北极涛动的响应[J].干旱区研究,2016,33(4):681-689.[Guan Xuefeng,Sun Weiguo,Li Minjiao,et al.Climate change in Northern Xinjiang and its response to arctic oscillation during the period of 1965-2012[J].Arid Zone Research,2016,33(4):681-689.]
[25]王涛,霍彦峰,罗艳.近300 a来天山中西部降水与太阳活动的小波分析[J].干旱区研究,2016,33(4):708-717.[Wang Tao,Huo Yanfeng,Luo Yan.Precipitation and sunspots in the central-west Tianshan Mountains in recent 300 years[J].Arid Zone Research,2016,33(4):708-717.]
[26]杨金虎,江志红,魏锋,等.近45 a来中国西北年极端高、低温的变化及对区域性增暖的响应[J].干旱区地理,2006,29(5):625-631.[Yang Jinhu,Jiang Zhihong,Wei Feng,et al.Variability of extreme hightemperature and low temperature and their response to regional warming in Northwest China in recent 45 years[J].Arid Land Geography,2006,29(5):625-631.]
[27]张山清,普宗朝,李景林,等.气候变暖背景下新疆无霜冻期时空变化分析[J].资源科学,2013,35(9):1 908-1 916.[Zhang Shanqing,Pu Zongchao,Li Jinglin,et al.The impact of global warming on frost-free periods from 1961 to 2010 in warming[J].Resources Science,2013,35(9):1 908-1 916.]
[28]韩颖,侯向阳.内蒙古荒漠草原牧户对气候变化的感知和适应[J].应用生态学报,2011,22(4):913-922.[Han Ying,Hou Xiangyang.Perceptions and adaptation strategies of herders in desert steppe of Inner Mongolia to climate change[J].Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology,2011,22(4):913-922.]
[29]刘伟,姜逢清,李小兰.新疆气候变化的适应能力时空演化特征[J].干旱区研究,2017,34(3):531-540.[Liu Wei,Jiang Fengqing,Li Xiaolan.Spatiotemporal evolution of adaptive capacity to climate change in Xinjiang[J].Arid Zone Research,2017,34(3):531-540.]
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