基于脱钩理论和LMDI模型安徽省用水量和经济发展关系的定量研究

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英文篇名：Study on the Relationship Between Water Consumption and Economic Development in Anhui Based on Decoupling and LMDI Model 作者：童国平 ; 陈岩 英文作者：TONG Guo-ping;CHEN Yan;School of Economics and Management, Nanjing Forestry University; 关键词：用水量 ; 经济发展 ; 脱钩弹性分析方法 ; LMDI分解模型 ; 安徽省 英文关键词：water consumption;;economic development;;decoupling elasticity method;;LMDI decomposition model;;Anhui Province 中文刊名：中国林业经济 英文刊名：China Forestry Economics 机构：南京林业大学经济管理学院; 出版日期：2019-01-10 出版单位：中国林业经济 年：2019 期：01 基金：国家自然基金青年项目“基于奈特不确定性理论的流域水资源脆弱性分析与适应性治理研究”(71403122);; 江苏省自然基金青年项目“流域水资源关键脆弱性分析与适应性治理研究”(BK20140980);; 教育部人文社科基金青年项目“基于影响因素风险预测的流域水资源脆弱性分析与适应性治理研究”(14YJC630018) 语种：中文; 页：18-22 页数：5 CN：23-1539/F ISSN：1673-5919 分类号：F127;TV213.4

摘要

采用脱钩弹性分析方法,分析安徽省的总用水量和地区生产总值之间的脱钩状态,并评价该省的总体脱钩状况和发展趋势。同时,利用LMDI分解模型把用水量影响因素定义为人口效应、经济水平效应、产业结构效应和水资源利用效应,分析四大效应对用水量的具体影响。结果表明:安徽省水资源利用的脱钩状态是由较差脱钩-弱脱钩-强弱脱钩交替的变化过程,脱钩状况随时间逐渐改善;同时,在四大效应的贡献率分析中,经济发展因素和产业结构因素主要导致了用水量的增加,水资源利用效率因素抑制了用水量,人口对用水量的影响很小。提出了应努力发展资源节约型经济、调整优化产业结构,发展技术提高水资源利用效应以达到强脱钩的目的建议。
        The decoupling elastic analysis method was used to analyze the decoupling state between the total water consumption and the regional GDP in Anhui Province, and to evaluate the overall decoupling status and development trend of the province. At the same time, the LMDI decomposition model is used to define the influencing factors of water consumption as population effect, economic level effect, industrial structure effect and water resource utilization effect, and analyze the specific effects of the four major effects on water consumption. The results show that the decoupling state of water resources utilization in Anhui Province is a change process of poor decoupling-weak decoupling-strong decoupling, and the decoupling condition gradually improves with time. At the same time, in the analysis of the contribution rate of the four major effects, economic development factors And industrial structure factors mainly lead to an increase in water consumption, water use efficiency factors inhibit water consumption, and the population has little impact on water consumption. This paper made some suggestions for the purpose of developing a resource-saving economy, adjusting and optimizing the industrial structure, and developing technologies to improve the utilization of water resources in order to achieve strong decoupling.

引文

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