泥石流沟危险度定量评价研究——以白龙江陇南两河口镇至桔柑乡段为例
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摘要
泥石流的危险度是认识、防控泥石流的重要因素,针对反映泥石流危险度的特征函数进行分析,运用量纲分析方法,建立了基于泥石流势能的单沟危险度计算模型。同时考虑到防治工程的减危效果,增加了拦砂坝和排导槽对泥石流的拦挡排疏功能来修正模型,并以白龙江陇南两河口镇至桔柑乡段138条泥石流沟为例来验证模型的有效性,得到了研究区域单沟泥石流危险度值。结果表明:修正模型能计算增加防治工程后单沟泥石流的危险度,具有较好的实用性;沿白龙江流域的泥石流沟中,极高危险区占研究区范围的17.39%,高度危险区占研究区范围的21.74%,且危险区大多集中于白龙江北岸,计算值与野外实际情况基本吻合;然而由于防治工程减危值受历史条件的影响,对于极高危险区的泥石流沟,应及时做好防范。
The risk degree of debris flow is an important factor to understand, prevent and control debris flows. According to the characteristic function reflecting debris flow risk degree and the dimensional analysis method, a single gully debris flow risk degree calculation model based on debris flow potential energy is established. At the same time, considering the risk reduction effect of controlling projects, the blocking and drainage function of sediment retaining dam and drainage canal for debris flow is considered to modify the model. Taking 138 debris flow gullies from Lianghekou Town to Jugan Township by Bailong River as examples, the effectiveness of the model has been verified and the single-gully debris flow risk values are obtained. The results show that the model could calculate the risk value of single-gully debris flow considering the control projects, and has good practicability. In the debris flow gullies in the Bailong River Basin, the extremely high risk area accounts for 17.39%, and the high dangerous area accounts for 21.74%, and most of the dangerous areas are concentrated on the north bank of the Bailong River. The calculated values are in reasonably good agreement with the actual situation in the field. The risk reduction value of prevention and control project is affected by historical conditions. For debris flow gullies in extremely high risk areas, prevention should be done in a timely manner.
The risk degree of debris flow is an important factor to understand, prevent and control debris flows. According to the characteristic function reflecting debris flow risk degree and the dimensional analysis method, a single gully debris flow risk degree calculation model based on debris flow potential energy is established. At the same time, considering the risk reduction effect of controlling projects, the blocking and drainage function of sediment retaining dam and drainage canal for debris flow is considered to modify the model. Taking 138 debris flow gullies from Lianghekou Town to Jugan Township by Bailong River as examples, the effectiveness of the model has been verified and the single-gully debris flow risk values are obtained. The results show that the model could calculate the risk value of single-gully debris flow considering the control projects, and has good practicability. In the debris flow gullies in the Bailong River Basin, the extremely high risk area accounts for 17.39%, and the high dangerous area accounts for 21.74%, and most of the dangerous areas are concentrated on the north bank of the Bailong River. The calculated values are in reasonably good agreement with the actual situation in the field. The risk reduction value of prevention and control project is affected by historical conditions. For debris flow gullies in extremely high risk areas, prevention should be done in a timely manner.
引文
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[2] 罗元华.论泥石流灾害风险评估方法[J].中国矿业,2000,9(6):70-72.
[3] 黄忠恕,余应中.长江上游陇南地区泥石流分布发育特征[J].人民长江,1998,29(7):42-44.
[4] 刘希林.我国泥石流危险度评价研究:回顾与展望[J].自然灾害学报,2002,11(4):1-8.
[5] 苏经宇,周锡元,樊水荣.泥石流危险等级评价的模糊数学方法[J].自然灾害学报,1993(2):83-90.
[6] 刘希林,张松林,唐川.沟谷泥石流危险度评价研究[J].水土保持学报,1993,7(2):20-25.
[7] 李权.基于RS和GIS的泥石流地质灾害多尺度分析与评价[D].成都:成都理工大学,2016.
[8] 李秀珍,孔纪名,王成华.多分类支持向量机在滑坡稳定性判识中的应用[J].吉林大学学报(地球科学版),2010,40(3):631-637.
[9] 王纳纳,唐川.基于FLO-2D的都江堰市龙池镇黄央沟泥石流数值模拟[J].地质灾害与环境保护,2014,25(1):107-112.
[10] Chang I S,Park E Y,Park K B,et al.Study on risk assessment of debris flow using GIS[J].Journal of Environmental Science International,2013,22(2):225-234.
[11] Bregoli F,Ciervo F,Iglesias V C D M,et al.Development of preliminary assessment tools to evaluate debris flow hazard[C]// XVIII International Conference on Computational Methods in Water Resources,OAI,2010:14262.
[12] 胡凯衡,崔鹏,韩用顺,等.基于聚类和最大似然法的汶川灾区泥石流滑坡易发性评价[J].中国水土保持科学,2012,10(1):12-18.
[13] 李泳.根据能量确定的泥石流危险度[J].自然灾害学报,1999,8(2):168-171.
[14] 苏军德,高立兵,孔霞,等.白龙江流域泥石流的发育成因及时空分布特征[J].人民长江,2017,48(S1):23-25.
[15] 柳金峰,黄江成,欧国强,等.甘肃陇南武都区泥石流易发性评价[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,2010,21(4):8-13.
[16] 舒和平,孙爽,马金珠,等.甘肃省南部单沟泥石流灾害风险评估[J].山地学报,2016,34(3):337-345.
[17] 陈宁生,周海波,卢阳,等.西南山区泥石流防治工程效益浅析[J].成都理工大学学报(自然科学版),2013,40(1):50-58.