吉林省县域环境污染的时空演变特征与影响因素
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摘要
基于2011年和2015年环境污染物排放和经济社会数据,选取4类污染物的工业源、农业源和城镇生活源排放总量指标,通过构建整体环境污染综合指数和分来源污染指数综合反映吉林省县域尺度单元污染状况,运用Moran I指数、时空跃迁分析和标准差椭圆分析定量研究吉林省环境污染的时空演变特征,并构建空间计量模型对环境污染的影响因素进行分析.结果表明:吉林省环境污染具有空间集聚特征,环境污染主要分布在长春、吉林等中部地区,分来源的环境污染空间分布存在明显的区域差异特征;吉林省县域单元整体环境污染和农业源污染均具有空间相关性,环境污染空间布局的关联结构稳定性高,环境污染具有路径锁定特征;环境污染的空间分布呈现西北-东南分布格局,且环境污染表现出由中心向四周扩散态势,环境污染的重心在43.65—43.66°N,125.83—125.84°E之间变动;地区经济发展水平、城市化水平和农业生产是吉林省县域环境污染和工业源污染的主要驱动因素,产业结构的调整优化改善了整体环境污染与工业源污染状况.化肥的过度使用增加了农业源污染,经济发展水平和城市化水平是城镇生活源污染排放的主要驱动因素.县域整体环境污染和农业源污染均具有空间扩散效应,各自污染状况分别与相邻地区整体环境污染和农业源污染状况密切相关.
Based on pollutant emissions and social-economic data during 2011 and 2015, we selec-ted the total emission index of four pollutants, including the industrial source, agricultural source, and urban living source. The comprehensive index of environmental pollution and sub-source pollution index were built to reflect the pollution of Jilin Province at county scale. Furthermore, the Moran's I, spatial-temporal transition analysis, and standard deviation ellipse analysis were used to quantitatively examine the spatial-temporal evolutionary characteristics of environmental pollution in Jilin Province. A spatial econometric model was built to analyze the influencing factors of environmental pollution. The results showed that environmental pollution in Jilin Province presented spatial agglomeration characteristics, which was mainly concentrating in central areas such as Changchun and Jilin cities. There were obvious regional differences in the spatial distribution of environmental pollution from different sources. There were spatial correlation of the total environmental pollution and agricultural source pollution separately at county scale in Jilin Province. The correlation structure stability of the spatial distribution of environmental pollution was high, which had path locking characteristic. The spatial distribution of environmental pollution showed a northwest-southeast distribution pattern and a spread from the center to the surroundings. The barycenter of environmental pollution moved in the area between 43.65-43.66° N and 125.83-125.84° E. The level of regional economic development, urbanization level and agricultural production were main driving factors for county-scale environmental pollution and industrial source pollution. The adjustment and optimization of industrial structure had improved the overall environmental pollution and industrial source pollution situation. Overuse of chemical fertilizers significantly increased agricultural source pollution. The level of economic development and urbanization were the main drivers of urban living source pollution. The overall environmental pollution and agricultural source pollution had spatial diffusion effects, and their pollution status was closely related to the overall environmental pollution and agricultural source pollution status in adjacent areas, respectively.
Based on pollutant emissions and social-economic data during 2011 and 2015, we selec-ted the total emission index of four pollutants, including the industrial source, agricultural source, and urban living source. The comprehensive index of environmental pollution and sub-source pollution index were built to reflect the pollution of Jilin Province at county scale. Furthermore, the Moran's I, spatial-temporal transition analysis, and standard deviation ellipse analysis were used to quantitatively examine the spatial-temporal evolutionary characteristics of environmental pollution in Jilin Province. A spatial econometric model was built to analyze the influencing factors of environmental pollution. The results showed that environmental pollution in Jilin Province presented spatial agglomeration characteristics, which was mainly concentrating in central areas such as Changchun and Jilin cities. There were obvious regional differences in the spatial distribution of environmental pollution from different sources. There were spatial correlation of the total environmental pollution and agricultural source pollution separately at county scale in Jilin Province. The correlation structure stability of the spatial distribution of environmental pollution was high, which had path locking characteristic. The spatial distribution of environmental pollution showed a northwest-southeast distribution pattern and a spread from the center to the surroundings. The barycenter of environmental pollution moved in the area between 43.65-43.66° N and 125.83-125.84° E. The level of regional economic development, urbanization level and agricultural production were main driving factors for county-scale environmental pollution and industrial source pollution. The adjustment and optimization of industrial structure had improved the overall environmental pollution and industrial source pollution situation. Overuse of chemical fertilizers significantly increased agricultural source pollution. The level of economic development and urbanization were the main drivers of urban living source pollution. The overall environmental pollution and agricultural source pollution had spatial diffusion effects, and their pollution status was closely related to the overall environmental pollution and agricultural source pollution status in adjacent areas, respectively.
引文
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[20] Qu X-E (屈小娥).China’s provincial environment assessment:An empirical analysis based on the years from 1990 to 2009.China Population,Resources and Environment (中国人口·资源与环境),2012,22(5):158-163 (in Chinese)
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[22] Xiao Z-Y (肖周燕).Effect of population spatial agglomeration on production and domestic pollution in China.China Population,Resources and Environment (中国人口·资源与环境),2015,25(3):128-134 (in Chinese)
[23] Rey SJ.Spatial empirics for economic growth and convergence.Geographical Analysis,2001,33:195-214
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[26] National Bureau of Statistics (国家统计局).China City Statistical Yearbook.Beijing:China Statistics Press,2016 (in Chinese)
[27] Jilin Bureau of Statistics (吉林省统计局).Jilin Statistical Yearbook.Beijing:China Statistics Press,2012 (in Chinese)
[28] Jilin Bureau of Statistics (吉林省统计局).Jilin Statistical Yearbook.Beijing:China Statistics Press,2016 (in Chinese)
[29] Li S (李姝).Urbanization,industrial structure adjustment and environmental pollution.Research on Financial and Economic Issues (财经问题研究),2011(6):38-43 (in Chinese)
[30] Cai F-J (蔡风景),Li Y (李元).Analysis of main environmental pollution factors in China.Statistics & Decision (统计与决策),2014(12):123-126 (in Chinese)
[31] Li H (李贺),Li Y-N (李亚楠).Study on the environmental countermeasures of urbanization in Jilin Pro-vince.Environment and Sustainable Development (环境与可持续发展),2016,41(3):187-188 (in Chinese)
[32] Liang Z-F (梁照凤),Chen W-B (陈文波),Zheng J (郑蕉).Influence of land intensive use on main atmospheric pollutants in the central urban area of Nanchang City,China.Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology (应用生态学报),2018,29(5):1705-1714 (in Chinese)
[33] Zhou L (周亮),Xu J-G (徐建刚),Cai B-M (蔡北溟),et al.The spatio-temporal changes of grain production and fertilizer consumption and its impact on water environment in the Huaihe river basin.Journal of Natural Resources (自然资源学报),2014,29(6):1053-1064 (in Chinese)
[34] Smith LED,Siciliano G.A comprehensive review of constraints to improved management of fertilizers in China and mitigation of diffuse water pollution from agriculture.Agriculture,Ecosystems & Environment,2015,209:15-25
[2] Chen Z-H (陈祖海),Lei Zhu-J-H (雷朱家华).The spatial-temporal characteristics and economic drivers of environmental pollution changes in China.Geographical Research (地理研究),2015,34(11):2165-2178 (in Chinese)
[3] Zhou K (周侃),Fan J (樊杰).Regional disparity of environmental pollution source and its socio-economic influencing factors:Based on the cross-section data of 339 cities at prefecture level or above in China.Acta Geographica Sinica (地理学报),2016,71(11):1911-1925 (in Chinese)
[4] Kumar A,Patil RS,Dikshit AK,et al.Evaluation of control strategies for industrial air pollution sources using American Meteorological Society/Environmental Protection Agency Regulatory Model with simulated meteoro-logy by Weather Research and Forecasting Model.Journal of Cleaner Production,2016,116:110-117
[5] Friberg MD,Kahn RA,Holmes HA,et al.Daily ambient air pollution metrics for five cities:Evaluation of data-fusion-based estimates and uncertainties.Atmospheric Environment,2017,158:36-50
[6] Lucas MT,Noordewier TG.Environmental management practices and firm financial performance:The moderating effect of industry pollution-related factors.International Journal of Production Economics,2016,175:24-34
[7] Ding L (丁镭),Huang Y-L (黄亚林),Liu Y-L (刘云浪),et al.Spatiotemporal variability of sudden environmental pollution incidents and influencing factors in China,1995-2012.Progress in Geography (地理科学进展),2015,34(6):749-760 (in Chinese)
[8] Zhou K (周侃).Spatial-temporal differences and cluster features of environmental pollution in China.Scientia Geographica Sinica (地理科学),2016,36(7):989-997 (in Chinese)
[9] Guo S-D (郭四代),Zhang H (张华),Guo J (郭杰),et al.Evaluation and impact factors of environmental pollution of China based on spatial metric model.Chinese Journal of Ecology (生态学杂志),2018,37(2):471-481 (in Chinese)
[10] Yang R-F (杨仁发).Whether industrial agglomeration can reduce environmental pollution or not.China Population,Resources and Environment (中国人口·资源与环境),2015,25(2):23-29 (in Chinese)
[11] Wang L-P (王立平),Guan J (管杰),Zhang J-D (张纪东).Environmental pollution and economic growth in China:A dynamic spatial panel data model.Scientia Geographica Sinica (地理科学),2010,30(6):818-825 (in Chinese)
[12] Wang T (王婷),Lyu Z-H (吕昭河).Population growth,income level and urban environment.China Population,Resources and Environment (中国人口·资源与环境),2012,22(4):143-149 (in Chinese)
[13] Wang F-C (王飞成),Guo Q-Y (郭其友).The influence of economic growth to environmental pollution and regional heterogeneity:Evidence from provincial dyna-mic panel data model.Journal of Shanxi University of Finance and Economics (山西财经大学学报),2014,36(4):14-26 (in Chinese)
[14] Ren X-J (任小静),Qu X-E (屈小娥),Zhang L-L (张蕾蕾).The influence of environmental regulation on the spatial evolution of environmental pollution.Journal of Beijing Institute of Technology (Social Science) (北京理工大学学报:社会科学版),2018,20(1):1-8 (in Chinese)
[15] Xu H-L (许和连),Deng Y-P (邓玉萍).Foreign direct investment has led to environmental pollution in China?A spatial econometric study based on panel data of provinces in China.Management World (管理世界),2012(2):30-43 (in Chinese)
[16] Liu H-Y (刘海英),Shang J (尚晶),Ji H-J (纪红军).Study on path characteristics recognition of correlation between environmental pollution and economic growth in Jilin Province.Economic Review (经济纵横),2009(11):49-51 (in Chinese)
[17] Cheng ZH.The spatial correlation and interaction between manufacturing agglomeration and environmental pollution.Ecological Indicators,2016,61:1024-1032
[18] Liu JM,Chen X,Wei RC.Socioeconomic drivers of environmental pollution in China:A spatial econometric analysis.Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society,2017(1):1-13,doi:10.1155/2017/4673262
[19] Li K-F (李凯风),Wang J (王捷).Financial agglomeration,industrial structure and environmental pollution:Spatial econometric analysis based on China’s provinces.Journal of Industrial Technological Economics (工业技术经济),2017,36(3):3-12 (in Chinese)
[20] Qu X-E (屈小娥).China’s provincial environment assessment:An empirical analysis based on the years from 1990 to 2009.China Population,Resources and Environment (中国人口·资源与环境),2012,22(5):158-163 (in Chinese)
[21] Ma X-Y (马晓钰),Li Q-Y (李强谊),Han Y-Y (韩源源).The impact of population on environmental pollution in China:Based on provincial static and dynamic panel data model.Ecological Economy (生态经济),2015,31(10):138-141 (in Chinese)
[22] Xiao Z-Y (肖周燕).Effect of population spatial agglomeration on production and domestic pollution in China.China Population,Resources and Environment (中国人口·资源与环境),2015,25(3):128-134 (in Chinese)
[23] Rey SJ.Spatial empirics for economic growth and convergence.Geographical Analysis,2001,33:195-214
[24] Lefever DW.Measuring geographic concentration by means of the standard deviational ellipse.American Journal of Sociology,1926,32:88-94
[25] National Bureau of Statistics (国家统计局).China City Statistical Yearbook.Beijing:China Statistics Press,2012 (in Chinese)
[26] National Bureau of Statistics (国家统计局).China City Statistical Yearbook.Beijing:China Statistics Press,2016 (in Chinese)
[27] Jilin Bureau of Statistics (吉林省统计局).Jilin Statistical Yearbook.Beijing:China Statistics Press,2012 (in Chinese)
[28] Jilin Bureau of Statistics (吉林省统计局).Jilin Statistical Yearbook.Beijing:China Statistics Press,2016 (in Chinese)
[29] Li S (李姝).Urbanization,industrial structure adjustment and environmental pollution.Research on Financial and Economic Issues (财经问题研究),2011(6):38-43 (in Chinese)
[30] Cai F-J (蔡风景),Li Y (李元).Analysis of main environmental pollution factors in China.Statistics & Decision (统计与决策),2014(12):123-126 (in Chinese)
[31] Li H (李贺),Li Y-N (李亚楠).Study on the environmental countermeasures of urbanization in Jilin Pro-vince.Environment and Sustainable Development (环境与可持续发展),2016,41(3):187-188 (in Chinese)
[32] Liang Z-F (梁照凤),Chen W-B (陈文波),Zheng J (郑蕉).Influence of land intensive use on main atmospheric pollutants in the central urban area of Nanchang City,China.Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology (应用生态学报),2018,29(5):1705-1714 (in Chinese)
[33] Zhou L (周亮),Xu J-G (徐建刚),Cai B-M (蔡北溟),et al.The spatio-temporal changes of grain production and fertilizer consumption and its impact on water environment in the Huaihe river basin.Journal of Natural Resources (自然资源学报),2014,29(6):1053-1064 (in Chinese)
[34] Smith LED,Siciliano G.A comprehensive review of constraints to improved management of fertilizers in China and mitigation of diffuse water pollution from agriculture.Agriculture,Ecosystems & Environment,2015,209:15-25