松嫩平原地下水氮污染健康风险评估
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摘要
为探明松嫩平原地下水氮污染现状及其对人类健康的影响,利用浅层地下水采样测试数据,运用地统计学分析及三角随机模型开展了儿童和成人群体摄入氮污染风险评估及其不确定性研究.结果表明:研究区氮污染物主要存在形式为硝态氮,样品超标率为44.35%,最大值达到566.2mg/L,硝态氮浓度大于20mg/L的区域约占区内总面积的60%,主要分布在东中部高平原地区,西部山前倾斜平原污染较轻;以Isight5.9-2为平台,基于三角模糊法耦合随机模型,考虑人类活动及农业发展的影响,将研究区划分为不同单元,非致癌风险排序为:评价单元Ⅲ>评价单元Ⅱ>评价单元Ⅰ,且单元Ⅲ污染物主要来源于农业活动,单元Ⅲ、Ⅱ区域风险远高于安全阈值1,会对儿童和成人群体健康造成潜在危害,对儿童威胁更大;污染物浓度和参数的不确定性对风险值影响的波动范围较大,三角随机模型对数据变化更为敏感,可降低三角模糊法的不确定性,单元Ⅰ儿童风险区间值横跨安全阈值1,可能会误导污染防控决策;硝态氮浓度对风险贡献率均在90%以上,明确对硝态氮浓度参数随机抽样的必要性,提高评价结果的可靠性.
To explore the Songnen Plain of nitrogen pollution and its effect on human health, this study employed shallow groundwater sampling test data, geostatistical analysis and conducted the triangular random model to assess the risk of nitrogen exposure in children and adults, and performed the uncertainty analysis. The results showed that: The main nitrogen pollutants was nitrate nitrogen, and the sample exceeded the standard rate of 44.35%, and the maximum value reached 566.2 mg/L, and the region with a concentration of nitrate nitrogen greater than 20 mg/L accounted for about 60% of the total area in the region, mainly distributed in the high plain area of the eastern and central parts, and the western front slope plain was less polluted; Based on the triangular fuzzy coupled stochastic model on the Isight 5.9-2 platform, considering the impact of human activities and agricultural development, the study area was divided into different units. The non-carcinogenic risk ranking was: evaluation unit Ⅲ> evaluation unit Ⅱ>evaluation unit Ⅰ, and the contaminants in Unit Ⅲ were mainly derived from agricultural activities, and the risks in Units Ⅲ and Ⅱ were much higher than the safety threshold value of 1, which may cause potential harm to children and adults, and threaten children more; The uncertainty of pollutant concentration and parameters had a large fluctuation range for the risk value, and the triangular random model was more sensitive to data changes, which can reduce the uncertainty of the triangular fuzzy method. The unit Ⅰ risk interval value crossed the safety threshold 1, and it may mislead pollution prevention and control decisions; the contribution rate of nitrate nitrogen concentration to risk was above 90%, which clarified the necessity of random sampling to improve the reliability of the evaluation results.
To explore the Songnen Plain of nitrogen pollution and its effect on human health, this study employed shallow groundwater sampling test data, geostatistical analysis and conducted the triangular random model to assess the risk of nitrogen exposure in children and adults, and performed the uncertainty analysis. The results showed that: The main nitrogen pollutants was nitrate nitrogen, and the sample exceeded the standard rate of 44.35%, and the maximum value reached 566.2 mg/L, and the region with a concentration of nitrate nitrogen greater than 20 mg/L accounted for about 60% of the total area in the region, mainly distributed in the high plain area of the eastern and central parts, and the western front slope plain was less polluted; Based on the triangular fuzzy coupled stochastic model on the Isight 5.9-2 platform, considering the impact of human activities and agricultural development, the study area was divided into different units. The non-carcinogenic risk ranking was: evaluation unit Ⅲ> evaluation unit Ⅱ>evaluation unit Ⅰ, and the contaminants in Unit Ⅲ were mainly derived from agricultural activities, and the risks in Units Ⅲ and Ⅱ were much higher than the safety threshold value of 1, which may cause potential harm to children and adults, and threaten children more; The uncertainty of pollutant concentration and parameters had a large fluctuation range for the risk value, and the triangular random model was more sensitive to data changes, which can reduce the uncertainty of the triangular fuzzy method. The unit Ⅰ risk interval value crossed the safety threshold 1, and it may mislead pollution prevention and control decisions; the contribution rate of nitrate nitrogen concentration to risk was above 90%, which clarified the necessity of random sampling to improve the reliability of the evaluation results.
引文
[1] Bian J M, Liu C H, Zhang Z Z, et al. Hydro-Geochemical Characteristics and Health Risk Evaluation of Nitrate in Groundwater[J]. Polish Journal of Environmental Studies, 2016,25(2):521-527.
[2] Chen J, Wu H, Qian H. Groundwater Nitrate Contamination and Associated Health Risk for the Rural Communities in an Agricultural Area of Ningxia, Northwest China[J]. Exposure and Health, 2016,8(3):349-359.
[3] Zhai Y Z, Zhao X B, Teng Y, et al. Groundwater nitrate pollution and human health risk assessment by using HHRA model in an agricultural area, NE China[J]. Ecotoxicology&Environmental Safety, 2017,137:130-142.
[4] Su X S, Wang H, Zhang Y L. Health Risk Assessment of Nitrate Contamination in Groundwater:A Case Study of an Agricultural Area in Northeast China[J]. Water Resources Management, 2013,27(8):3025-3034.
[5]杨静,肖天昀,李海波,等.江汉平原地下水中硝酸盐的分布及影响因素[J].中国环境科学, 2018,38(2):710-718.Yang J, Xiao T Y, Li H B, et al. Spatial distribution and influencing factors of the NO3-N concentration in ground-water in Jianghan Plain[J]. China Environmental Science, 2018,38(2):710-718.
[6]卞建民,张真真,韩宇.松嫩平原地下水氮污染空间变异性及健康风险评价[J].重庆大学学报, 2015,38(4):104-111.Bian J M, Zhang Z Z, Han Y. Spatial variability and health risk groundwater in assessment of nitrogen pollution in Song-nen Plain[J].Journal of Chongqing University, 2015,38(4):104-111.
[7]邓安琪,董兆敏,高群,等.中国地下水砷健康风险评价[J].中国环境科学, 2017,37(9):3556-3565.Deng A Q, Dong Z M, Gao Q, et al. Health risk assessment of arsenic in groundwater across China[J]. China Environmental Science,2017,37(9):3556-3565.
[8]赵娟,李育松,卞建民,等.吉林西部地区高砷地下水砷的阈值分析及风险评价[J].吉林大学学报(地球科学版), 2013,43(1):251-258.Zhao J, Li Y S, Bian J M, et al. Threshold Analysis and Health Risk Assessment of Arsenic in Groundwater in Western,Jilin Province[J].Journal of Jilin University(Earth Science Edition), 2013,43(1):251-258.
[9]周巾枚,蒋忠诚,徐光黎,等.铁矿周边地下水金属元素分布及健康风险评价[J].中国环境科学, 2019,39(5):1934-1944.Zhou J M, Jiang Z C, Xu G L, et al. Distribution and health risk assessment of metals in groundwater around iron mine[J]. China Environmental Science, 2019,39(5):1934-1944.
[10] Li R, Kuo Y M, Liu W W, et al. Potential health risk assess-ment through ingestion and dermal contact arseniccontaminat-ed groundwater in Jianghan Plain,China[J]. Environmental Geochemistry and Health, 2018,40(4):1585-1599.
[11]于云江,杨彦.基于GIS的松花江沿岸某区浅层地下水污染特征及人群暴露风险评价[J].中国环境科学, 2013,33(8):1487-1494.Yu Y J, Yang Y. The pollution characteristics and the crowd exposure risk assessment of shallow groundwater in an area of the Songhua River basin based on the GIS[J]. China Environmental Science, 2013,33(8):1487-1494.
[12]高瑞忠,秦子元,张生,等.吉兰泰盐湖盆地地下水Cr~(6+)、As、Hg健康风险评价[J].中国环境科学, 2018,38(6):2353-2362.Gao R Z, Qin Z Y, Zhang S, et al. Health risk assessment of Cr6+, As and Hg in groundwater of Jilantai salt lake basin, China[J]. China Environmental Science, 2018,38(6):2353-2362.
[13] Chen J, Qian H, Gao Y Y, et al. Human Health Risk Assessment of Contaminants in Drinking Water Based on Triangular Fuzzy Numbers Approach in Yinchuan City, Northwest China[J]. Exposure and Health,2017,10(3):155-166.
[14]袁希慧,王菲凤,张江山.基于区间数的饮用水源地水环境健康风险模糊评价[J].安全与环境学报, 2011,11(4):129-133.Yuan X H, Wang F F, Zhang J S. Integrated fuzzy model based on interval number for the assessment of environmental health drinking risk of resources[J]. Journal of Safety and Environment, 2011,11(4):129-133.
[15]丁昊天.基于区间数的地下水重金属健康风险模糊综合评价[D].湖南:湖南大学, 2011.Ding H T. Intergrated fuzzy approach for health risk assessment of groundwater contamination of heavy metal[D]. Hunan:Hunan University, 2011.
[16] Yang S, Yang Q C, Ma H Y, et al. Health risk assessment of phreatic water based on triangular fuzzy theory in Yinchuan plain[J].Ecotoxicology and environmental safety, 2018,164:732-738.
[17]刘年磊,蒋洪强,吴文俊.基于不确定性的水资源优化配置模型及其实证研究[J].中国环境科学, 2014,34(6):1607-1613.Liu N L, Jiang H Q, Wu W J. Empirical research of optimal allocation model of water resources under uncertainties[J]. China Environmental Science, 2014,34(6):1607-1613.
[18]王阳,徐明芳,耿梦梦,等.基于Monte Carlo模拟法对水源水体中微囊藻毒素的健康风险评估[J].环境科学, 2017,38(5):1842-1851.Wang Y, Xu M F, Gen M M, et al. Health risk assessment of microcystins from drinking water source by Monte Carlo simulation method[J]. Environmental Science, 2017,38(5):1842-1851.
[19]杨阳,代丹,蔡怡敏,等.基于Monte Carlo模拟的土壤重金属综合风险评价与案例分析[J].环境科学, 2015,36(11):4225-4231.Yang Y, Dai D, Cai Y M, et al. Comprehensive risk assessment of soil heavy metals based on Monte Carlo simulation and case study[J].Environmental Science, 2015,36(11):4225-4231.
[20]邓玉,倪福全,李林桓,等.基于ANN-MC模型的农村饮用水源健康风险不确定性量化研究[J].华北水利水电大学学报(自然科学版),2017,38(4):25-32.Deng Y, Ni F Q, Li L H, et al. Quantitative analysis of uncertainty in health risk of rural drinking water sources based on ANN-MC Model[J]. Journal of North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power(Natural Science Edition), 2017,38(4):25-32.
[21]徐亚,朱雪梅,刘玉强,等.基于随机-模糊耦合的污染场地健康风险评价及案例[J].中国环境科学, 2014,34(10):2692-2700.Xu Y, Zhu X M, Liu Y Q, et al. A fuzzy-stochastic integrated model of contaminated site risk assessment model and case study[J]. China Environmental Science, 2014,34(10):2692-2700.
[22]郑德凤,苏琳,李红英,等.基于随机模拟与三角模糊数耦合模型的地下水环境健康风险评价研究[J].环境科学与管理, 2014.39(10):155-158+188.Zheng D F, Su L, Li H Y, et al. Health Risk Assessment of Groundwater Environment based on coupling model of stochastic simulation and triangle fuzzy number[J]. Environmental Science and Management, 2014,39(10):155-158+188.
[23] HJ/T 164-2004地下水环境监测技术规范[S].HJ/T 164-2004 Technical specification for environmental monitoring of groundwater[S].
[24] HJ/T535-2009水质氨氮的测定纳氏试剂分光光度法[S].HJ/T535-2009 Water quality-determination of ammonia nitrogenNessler’s reagent spectrophotometry[S].
[25] GB5749—2006国家标准生活饮用水卫生标准[S].GB5749—2006 Standards for drinking water quality[S].
[2] Chen J, Wu H, Qian H. Groundwater Nitrate Contamination and Associated Health Risk for the Rural Communities in an Agricultural Area of Ningxia, Northwest China[J]. Exposure and Health, 2016,8(3):349-359.
[3] Zhai Y Z, Zhao X B, Teng Y, et al. Groundwater nitrate pollution and human health risk assessment by using HHRA model in an agricultural area, NE China[J]. Ecotoxicology&Environmental Safety, 2017,137:130-142.
[4] Su X S, Wang H, Zhang Y L. Health Risk Assessment of Nitrate Contamination in Groundwater:A Case Study of an Agricultural Area in Northeast China[J]. Water Resources Management, 2013,27(8):3025-3034.
[5]杨静,肖天昀,李海波,等.江汉平原地下水中硝酸盐的分布及影响因素[J].中国环境科学, 2018,38(2):710-718.Yang J, Xiao T Y, Li H B, et al. Spatial distribution and influencing factors of the NO3-N concentration in ground-water in Jianghan Plain[J]. China Environmental Science, 2018,38(2):710-718.
[6]卞建民,张真真,韩宇.松嫩平原地下水氮污染空间变异性及健康风险评价[J].重庆大学学报, 2015,38(4):104-111.Bian J M, Zhang Z Z, Han Y. Spatial variability and health risk groundwater in assessment of nitrogen pollution in Song-nen Plain[J].Journal of Chongqing University, 2015,38(4):104-111.
[7]邓安琪,董兆敏,高群,等.中国地下水砷健康风险评价[J].中国环境科学, 2017,37(9):3556-3565.Deng A Q, Dong Z M, Gao Q, et al. Health risk assessment of arsenic in groundwater across China[J]. China Environmental Science,2017,37(9):3556-3565.
[8]赵娟,李育松,卞建民,等.吉林西部地区高砷地下水砷的阈值分析及风险评价[J].吉林大学学报(地球科学版), 2013,43(1):251-258.Zhao J, Li Y S, Bian J M, et al. Threshold Analysis and Health Risk Assessment of Arsenic in Groundwater in Western,Jilin Province[J].Journal of Jilin University(Earth Science Edition), 2013,43(1):251-258.
[9]周巾枚,蒋忠诚,徐光黎,等.铁矿周边地下水金属元素分布及健康风险评价[J].中国环境科学, 2019,39(5):1934-1944.Zhou J M, Jiang Z C, Xu G L, et al. Distribution and health risk assessment of metals in groundwater around iron mine[J]. China Environmental Science, 2019,39(5):1934-1944.
[10] Li R, Kuo Y M, Liu W W, et al. Potential health risk assess-ment through ingestion and dermal contact arseniccontaminat-ed groundwater in Jianghan Plain,China[J]. Environmental Geochemistry and Health, 2018,40(4):1585-1599.
[11]于云江,杨彦.基于GIS的松花江沿岸某区浅层地下水污染特征及人群暴露风险评价[J].中国环境科学, 2013,33(8):1487-1494.Yu Y J, Yang Y. The pollution characteristics and the crowd exposure risk assessment of shallow groundwater in an area of the Songhua River basin based on the GIS[J]. China Environmental Science, 2013,33(8):1487-1494.
[12]高瑞忠,秦子元,张生,等.吉兰泰盐湖盆地地下水Cr~(6+)、As、Hg健康风险评价[J].中国环境科学, 2018,38(6):2353-2362.Gao R Z, Qin Z Y, Zhang S, et al. Health risk assessment of Cr6+, As and Hg in groundwater of Jilantai salt lake basin, China[J]. China Environmental Science, 2018,38(6):2353-2362.
[13] Chen J, Qian H, Gao Y Y, et al. Human Health Risk Assessment of Contaminants in Drinking Water Based on Triangular Fuzzy Numbers Approach in Yinchuan City, Northwest China[J]. Exposure and Health,2017,10(3):155-166.
[14]袁希慧,王菲凤,张江山.基于区间数的饮用水源地水环境健康风险模糊评价[J].安全与环境学报, 2011,11(4):129-133.Yuan X H, Wang F F, Zhang J S. Integrated fuzzy model based on interval number for the assessment of environmental health drinking risk of resources[J]. Journal of Safety and Environment, 2011,11(4):129-133.
[15]丁昊天.基于区间数的地下水重金属健康风险模糊综合评价[D].湖南:湖南大学, 2011.Ding H T. Intergrated fuzzy approach for health risk assessment of groundwater contamination of heavy metal[D]. Hunan:Hunan University, 2011.
[16] Yang S, Yang Q C, Ma H Y, et al. Health risk assessment of phreatic water based on triangular fuzzy theory in Yinchuan plain[J].Ecotoxicology and environmental safety, 2018,164:732-738.
[17]刘年磊,蒋洪强,吴文俊.基于不确定性的水资源优化配置模型及其实证研究[J].中国环境科学, 2014,34(6):1607-1613.Liu N L, Jiang H Q, Wu W J. Empirical research of optimal allocation model of water resources under uncertainties[J]. China Environmental Science, 2014,34(6):1607-1613.
[18]王阳,徐明芳,耿梦梦,等.基于Monte Carlo模拟法对水源水体中微囊藻毒素的健康风险评估[J].环境科学, 2017,38(5):1842-1851.Wang Y, Xu M F, Gen M M, et al. Health risk assessment of microcystins from drinking water source by Monte Carlo simulation method[J]. Environmental Science, 2017,38(5):1842-1851.
[19]杨阳,代丹,蔡怡敏,等.基于Monte Carlo模拟的土壤重金属综合风险评价与案例分析[J].环境科学, 2015,36(11):4225-4231.Yang Y, Dai D, Cai Y M, et al. Comprehensive risk assessment of soil heavy metals based on Monte Carlo simulation and case study[J].Environmental Science, 2015,36(11):4225-4231.
[20]邓玉,倪福全,李林桓,等.基于ANN-MC模型的农村饮用水源健康风险不确定性量化研究[J].华北水利水电大学学报(自然科学版),2017,38(4):25-32.Deng Y, Ni F Q, Li L H, et al. Quantitative analysis of uncertainty in health risk of rural drinking water sources based on ANN-MC Model[J]. Journal of North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power(Natural Science Edition), 2017,38(4):25-32.
[21]徐亚,朱雪梅,刘玉强,等.基于随机-模糊耦合的污染场地健康风险评价及案例[J].中国环境科学, 2014,34(10):2692-2700.Xu Y, Zhu X M, Liu Y Q, et al. A fuzzy-stochastic integrated model of contaminated site risk assessment model and case study[J]. China Environmental Science, 2014,34(10):2692-2700.
[22]郑德凤,苏琳,李红英,等.基于随机模拟与三角模糊数耦合模型的地下水环境健康风险评价研究[J].环境科学与管理, 2014.39(10):155-158+188.Zheng D F, Su L, Li H Y, et al. Health Risk Assessment of Groundwater Environment based on coupling model of stochastic simulation and triangle fuzzy number[J]. Environmental Science and Management, 2014,39(10):155-158+188.
[23] HJ/T 164-2004地下水环境监测技术规范[S].HJ/T 164-2004 Technical specification for environmental monitoring of groundwater[S].
[24] HJ/T535-2009水质氨氮的测定纳氏试剂分光光度法[S].HJ/T535-2009 Water quality-determination of ammonia nitrogenNessler’s reagent spectrophotometry[S].
[25] GB5749—2006国家标准生活饮用水卫生标准[S].GB5749—2006 Standards for drinking water quality[S].