基于水足迹理论和灰靶模型的汉江干流水资源可持续利用评价
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摘要
以汉江干流10个地级市为研究对象,计算2008-2015年水足迹参数,实现水足迹的时空分析;从PSR视角,构建水资源可持续利用综合评价体系,采用熵权灰靶模型评价2015年汉江干流水资源可持续利用强度。结果表明:①2008-2015年汉江干流水足迹呈缓慢增长态势,增长率24.28亿m~3/a;农业水足迹占比最大,平均为87.78%。②水足迹经济效益仅武汉市最高,为62.72元/m~3,其余各市集中在9～22.72元/m~3;水资源压力指数仅汉中、安康和十堰三市较小。③2015年汉江干流各市综合水资源可持续利用水平多集中在中、差等级,仅上游的汉中和安康市为优等级;就准则层而言,均表现为上游的可持续性优于中下游,其中,响应层的可持续性最佳,压力层的可持续性最差。
In this paper, the water resources in main stream of Hanjiang River was taken as the research object. Firstly, the water footprints of 10 cities around main stream of Hangjiang River from 2008 to 2015 were calculated to realize the spatial-temporal features analysis of the water footprint parameters. Then, based on PSR theory, a comprehensive index system, including water footprint indexes and regular indicators, was constructed for the sustainable utilization of water resources. Afterwards, the entropy weight method and grey target model were used to evaluate the spatial difference of sustainable utilization level of water resources in main stream of Hanjiang River in 2015. The results showed as follows: ① the total water footprint was slowly increasing during 2008 to 2015 with the increase rate of 24.28×10~8 m~3 per year, and water footprint of agricultural production played the dominant percentage in the total water footprint, averagely accounting for 87.78%. ② The largest economic benefits per unit water footprint was in Wuhan with 62.72 yuan/m~3, while the values were concentrated between 9 and 22.72 yuan/m~3 in the all remaining cities. And the weakest pressure index of water resource was in Hanzhong, Ankang and Shiyan, while the values exceeded 2 in the remaining cities. ③ In 2015, the sustainable utilization of water resources was dominated by the middle and poor grades in middle and lower reaches of main stream of Hanjiang River, and only Hanzhong and Ankang in upstream reached good level. Similarly, standard layers also presented better level in upstream than in middle and lower reaches for sustainable utilization level of water resources.
In this paper, the water resources in main stream of Hanjiang River was taken as the research object. Firstly, the water footprints of 10 cities around main stream of Hangjiang River from 2008 to 2015 were calculated to realize the spatial-temporal features analysis of the water footprint parameters. Then, based on PSR theory, a comprehensive index system, including water footprint indexes and regular indicators, was constructed for the sustainable utilization of water resources. Afterwards, the entropy weight method and grey target model were used to evaluate the spatial difference of sustainable utilization level of water resources in main stream of Hanjiang River in 2015. The results showed as follows: ① the total water footprint was slowly increasing during 2008 to 2015 with the increase rate of 24.28×10~8 m~3 per year, and water footprint of agricultural production played the dominant percentage in the total water footprint, averagely accounting for 87.78%. ② The largest economic benefits per unit water footprint was in Wuhan with 62.72 yuan/m~3, while the values were concentrated between 9 and 22.72 yuan/m~3 in the all remaining cities. And the weakest pressure index of water resource was in Hanzhong, Ankang and Shiyan, while the values exceeded 2 in the remaining cities. ③ In 2015, the sustainable utilization of water resources was dominated by the middle and poor grades in middle and lower reaches of main stream of Hanjiang River, and only Hanzhong and Ankang in upstream reached good level. Similarly, standard layers also presented better level in upstream than in middle and lower reaches for sustainable utilization level of water resources.
引文
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[20] 史利洁,吴普特,王玉宝,等.基于作物生产水足迹的陕西省水资源压力评价[J].中国生态农业学报,2015,23(5):650-658.
[21] 杨倩,孙铖,李山勇,等.湖北水资源生态承压能力的时空分异特征[J].水土保持研究,2016,23(1):289-295.
[22] 卢新海,柯善淦.基于生态足迹模型的区域水资源生态补偿量化模型构建——以长江流域为例[J].长江流域资源与环境,2016,25(2):334-341.
[23] 李宁,张建清,王磊.基于水足迹法的长江中游城市群水资源利用与经济协调发展脱钩分析[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2017(11):202-208.
[24] 马静,汪党献,来海亮,等.中国区域水足迹的估算[J].资源科学,2005,27(5):96-100.
[25] 孙才志,刘玉玉,陈丽新,等.基于基尼系数和锡尔指数的中国水足迹强度时空差异变化格局[J].生态学报,2010,30(5):1 312-1 321.
[26] 戚瑞,耿涌,朱庆华.基于水足迹理论的区域水资源利用评价[J].自然资源学报,2011,26(3):486-495.
[27] 罗军刚,解建仓,阮本清.基于熵权的水资源短缺风险模糊综合评价模型及应用[J].水利学报,2008,39(9):1 092-1 097.
[28] 刘楚烨,赵言文,马群宇,等.基于水足迹理论的江苏省水资源可持续利用评价[J].水土保持通报,2017,37(6):313-320.
[29] 孙才志,张灿灿.中国人均水足迹驱动效应分解与空间聚类分析[J].华北水利水电大学学报(自然科学版),2018,39(2):1-11.
[30] Chapagain A K,Hoekstra A Y.Water footprints of nations-Volume 1[R].Value of Water Research Report Series No.16.UNESCO-IHE,2004.
[31] 张俊凤,花盛,刘友兆,等.基于改进灰靶模型的土地整治可持续性评价研究——以江苏省为例[J].长江流域资源与环境,2014,23(2):153-160.
[2] 杨广,何新林,李俊峰,等.玛纳斯河流域水资源可持续利用评价方法[J].生态学报,2011,31(9):2 407-2 413.
[3] 余灏哲,韩美.基于PSR模型的陕西省水资源承载力熵权法评价[J].水电能源科学,2016(1):27-31.
[4] 陈广,刘广龙,朱端卫,等.城镇化视角下三峡库区重庆段水生态安全评价[J].长江流域资源与环境,2015(s1):213-220.
[5] 高媛媛,王红瑞,许新宜,等.水资源安全评价模型构建与应用——以福建省泉州市为例[J].自然资源学报,2012,27(2):204-214.
[6] 孙才志,刘玉玉.基于DEA-ESDA的中国水资源利用相对效率的时空格局分析[J].资源科学,2009,31(10):1 696-1 703.
[7] 戚国强,卢静,李佳鸿,等.基于水足迹的黑龙江省水资源SE-DEA模型评价[J].人民黄河,2017,39(2):47-50.
[8] 余灏哲,韩美.基于水足迹的山东省水资源可持续利用时空分析[J].自然资源学报,2017,32(3):474-483.
[9] 熊鸿斌,周凌燕.基于水足迹—灰靶的安徽省水资源可持续利用评价[J].环境科学学报,2018,38(8):377-386.
[10] 赵锐,闵宁,张涵,等.区域水资源可持续利用评价以乐山市为例[J].节水灌溉,2016(12):89-93.
[11] 宋松柏,蔡焕杰.区域水资源可持续利用评价的人工神经网络模型[J].农业工程学报,2004,20(6):89-92.
[12] 邢军,孙立波.基于因子分析与模糊综合评判方法的水资源承载力评价[J].节水灌溉,2014(4):52-55.
[13] 李俊晓,李朝奎,罗淑华,等.基于AHP-模糊综合评价方法的泉州市水资源可持续利用评价[J].水土保持通报,2015,35(1):210-214.
[14] 季妤,陆宝宏.南京市水资源可持续利用评价[J].水资源保护,2014,30(1):79-83.
[15] 李玉凤,刘红玉,郝敬锋,等.湿地水环境健康评价方法及案例分析[J].环境科学,2012,33(2):346-351.
[16] 宋捷,党耀国,王正新,等.正负靶心灰靶决策模型[J].系统工程理论与实践,2010,30(10):1 822-1 827.
[17] 李红,周波.基于改进后灰靶模型的四川省水资源紧缺度评价[J].工程科学与技术,2012,44(1):43-49.
[18] Shamilov A.A development of entropy optimization methods[J].WSEAS Trans.Math.,2006,5(5):568-575.
[19] 陈颢,任志远,郭斌.陕西省近10年来水资源足迹动态变化研究[J].干旱区资源与环境,2011,25(3):43-48.
[20] 史利洁,吴普特,王玉宝,等.基于作物生产水足迹的陕西省水资源压力评价[J].中国生态农业学报,2015,23(5):650-658.
[21] 杨倩,孙铖,李山勇,等.湖北水资源生态承压能力的时空分异特征[J].水土保持研究,2016,23(1):289-295.
[22] 卢新海,柯善淦.基于生态足迹模型的区域水资源生态补偿量化模型构建——以长江流域为例[J].长江流域资源与环境,2016,25(2):334-341.
[23] 李宁,张建清,王磊.基于水足迹法的长江中游城市群水资源利用与经济协调发展脱钩分析[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2017(11):202-208.
[24] 马静,汪党献,来海亮,等.中国区域水足迹的估算[J].资源科学,2005,27(5):96-100.
[25] 孙才志,刘玉玉,陈丽新,等.基于基尼系数和锡尔指数的中国水足迹强度时空差异变化格局[J].生态学报,2010,30(5):1 312-1 321.
[26] 戚瑞,耿涌,朱庆华.基于水足迹理论的区域水资源利用评价[J].自然资源学报,2011,26(3):486-495.
[27] 罗军刚,解建仓,阮本清.基于熵权的水资源短缺风险模糊综合评价模型及应用[J].水利学报,2008,39(9):1 092-1 097.
[28] 刘楚烨,赵言文,马群宇,等.基于水足迹理论的江苏省水资源可持续利用评价[J].水土保持通报,2017,37(6):313-320.
[29] 孙才志,张灿灿.中国人均水足迹驱动效应分解与空间聚类分析[J].华北水利水电大学学报(自然科学版),2018,39(2):1-11.
[30] Chapagain A K,Hoekstra A Y.Water footprints of nations-Volume 1[R].Value of Water Research Report Series No.16.UNESCO-IHE,2004.
[31] 张俊凤,花盛,刘友兆,等.基于改进灰靶模型的土地整治可持续性评价研究——以江苏省为例[J].长江流域资源与环境,2014,23(2):153-160.