耕地生态足迹与生态承载力研究——基于中国粮食主产区2007-2016年面板数据
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摘要
我国粮食主产区面临耕地面积缩减、耕地压力增强、耕地质量破坏加剧等现实问题和严峻形势,进而耕地安全问题成为制约粮食安全的瓶颈。文章以2007-2016年统计数据为基础,分析粮食主产区耕地资源现状及问题,构建耕地生态足迹模型实证测算粮食主产区13个省(区)粮食安全保障的耕地生态足迹与生态承载力,并选取3个时间节点对各地区耕地生态盈亏状况从时间和空间进行动态评估。研究结果表明:耕地生态足迹省际差异显著,2007-2016年粮食主产区粮食安全保障的耕地EFI值呈赤字倒U扩大趋势,2016年达到(-3.79%),粮食安全保障处于耕地弱不可持续状态。
The ecological security problems of cultivated land in major grain producing areas are becoming increasingly stark and have become the bottleneck of China's food security. Based on the statistical data of 2007-2016,this paper analyzed the current situation and problems of cultivated land resources in major grain producing areas. The ecological footprint model was used to calculate the ecological footprint and ecological carrying capacity of cultivated land under the guarantee of food security in 13 provinces(regions) of main grain producing areas. In addition,three time nodes were selected to conduct dynamic empirical research on the ecological profit and loss of cultivated land in different regions from time and space. The research results showed that the provincial differences of ecological footprint for cultivated land were significant. From 2007 to 2016,the land EFI value of food security guarantee in major grain producing areas showed an inverted U shape of increasing deficit,and it reached(-3.79%) in the year of 2016,meaning that food security was in a weak and unsustainable state of cultivated land.
The ecological security problems of cultivated land in major grain producing areas are becoming increasingly stark and have become the bottleneck of China's food security. Based on the statistical data of 2007-2016,this paper analyzed the current situation and problems of cultivated land resources in major grain producing areas. The ecological footprint model was used to calculate the ecological footprint and ecological carrying capacity of cultivated land under the guarantee of food security in 13 provinces(regions) of main grain producing areas. In addition,three time nodes were selected to conduct dynamic empirical research on the ecological profit and loss of cultivated land in different regions from time and space. The research results showed that the provincial differences of ecological footprint for cultivated land were significant. From 2007 to 2016,the land EFI value of food security guarantee in major grain producing areas showed an inverted U shape of increasing deficit,and it reached(-3.79%) in the year of 2016,meaning that food security was in a weak and unsustainable state of cultivated land.
引文
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[2]张士功,纪纯,邱建军,等.中国耕地资源安全问题及其对策研究[J].中国农学通报,2005(12):372-375.
[3]朱红波.我国耕地资源生态安全的特征与影响因素分析[J].农业现代化研究,2008(2):194-197.
[4]宋振江,杨俊,李争.长江中下游粮食主产区耕地生态安全评价——基于省级面板数据[J].江苏农业科学,2017(20):290-294.
[5]杨曙辉,宋天庆,陈怀军,等.中国耕地生态安全危机的影响及思考[J].农业科技管理,2012(3):5-9.
[6]张锐,刘友兆.我国耕地生态安全评价及障碍因子诊断[J].长江流域资源与环境,2013(7):945-951.
[7]李明薇,陈伟强,郧雨旱,等.基于投影寻踪模型的河南省耕地生态安全评价[J].水土保持研究,2018(4):257-263.
[8]陈璐,胡月,韩学平,等.国家粮食安全中主产区粮食生产及其贡献的量化对比分析[J].中国土地科学,2017(9):34-42.
[9]蒋黎,朱福守.我国主产区粮食生产现状和政策建议[J].农业经济问题,2015(12):17-24.
[10]王一杰,邸菲,辛岭.我国粮食主产区粮食生产现状、存在问题及政策建议[J].农业现代化研究,2018(1):37-47.
[11]罗海平,宋焱,彭津琳.基于Costanza模型的我国粮食主产区生态服务价值评估研究[J].长江流域资源与环境,2017(4):585-590.
[12]王燕辉,陈卓,曹禺,等.河北省近20年耕地生态安全动态变化及阻力分析[J].水土保持研究,2017(1):194-199.
[13]施开放,刁承泰,孙秀锋,等.基于耕地生态足迹的重庆市耕地生态承载力供需平衡研究[J].生态学报,2013(6):1872-1880.
[14]王琦,易桂花,张廷斌,等.基于生态足迹模型的四川省耕地资源评价[J].长江流域资源与环境,2018(1):80-87.
[15]刘秀丽,张勃,昝国江,等.基于生态足迹的甘肃省耕地资源可持续利用与情景预测[J].干旱区地理,2013(1):84-91.
[16]付恭华,鄢帮有.中国未来的粮食安全与生态可持续性问题研究——基于粮食生产过程生态足迹的实证分析[J].长江流域资源与环境,2013(12):1550-1556.
[17]顾晓薇,王青,刘建兴,等.基于“国家公顷”计算城市生态足迹的新方法[J].东北大学学报,2005(4):295-298.
[18]吴开亚,王玲杰.基于全球公顷和国家公顷的生态足迹核算差异分析[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2007(5):80-83.
[19]刘某承,李文华.基于净初级生产力的中国各地生态足迹均衡因子测算[J].生态与农村环境学报,2010(5):401-406.
[20]吴隆杰.基于生态足迹指数的中国可持续发展动态评估[J].中国农业大学学报,2005(6):94-99.