长江经济带雾霾污染空间效应与影响因素分析
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摘要
基于STIRPAT模型,采用空间计量方法,构建公共边界长度权重矩阵,运用莫兰指数、空间滞后模型和空间误差模型分析长江经济带2001—2016年雾霾污染的空间效应与影响因素。研究发现:长江经济带雾霾污染存在着显著的空间正相关性,长江经济带上游地区表现出显著的低-低集聚,下游地区表现出显著的高-高集聚。经济发展水平和对外开放程度与雾霾污染呈现出倒U型关系。人口密度、经济发展水平、产业结构、对外开放程度与长江经济带雾霾污染显著正相关,能源强度、环境保护力度对雾霾污染的影响不显著。
Based on STIRPAT model,using spatial econometric method,by constructing a common boundary length weightmatrix,using the Moran index,spatial lag model and spatial error model to analysis the spatial effects and influencing factorsof haze pollution in the Yangtze River economic belt from 2001 to 2016. The results show that:there is a significant spatialpositive correlation between haze pollution in the Yangtze River economic belt. The upstream region of the Yangtze Rivereconomic belt shows significant low-low agglomeration,the downstream region shows significant high-high agglomeration. Thelevel of economic development and the degree of opening have an inverted-U-shaped relationship with haze pollution.Population density,level of economic development,industrial structure and level of opening up have significantly positivelyrelated to the haze pollution in the Yangtze River economic belt, the impact of energy intensity and the effort ofenvironmental protect on haze pollution is insignificant.
Based on STIRPAT model,using spatial econometric method,by constructing a common boundary length weightmatrix,using the Moran index,spatial lag model and spatial error model to analysis the spatial effects and influencing factorsof haze pollution in the Yangtze River economic belt from 2001 to 2016. The results show that:there is a significant spatialpositive correlation between haze pollution in the Yangtze River economic belt. The upstream region of the Yangtze Rivereconomic belt shows significant low-low agglomeration,the downstream region shows significant high-high agglomeration. Thelevel of economic development and the degree of opening have an inverted-U-shaped relationship with haze pollution.Population density,level of economic development,industrial structure and level of opening up have significantly positivelyrelated to the haze pollution in the Yangtze River economic belt, the impact of energy intensity and the effort ofenvironmental protect on haze pollution is insignificant.
引文
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(1)http://sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/data/set/sdei-global-annual-avg-pm2-5-modis-misr-seawifs-aod-1998-2012/data-download。
[2]RUPASINGHA A,GOETZ S J,DEBERTIN D L,et al.The environmental Kuznets curve for US counties:a spatial econometric analysis with extensions[J].Papers in region-al science,2004,83(2):407-424.
[3]肖宏伟,易丹辉,张亚雄.中国区域碳排放空间计量研究[J].经济与管理,2013(12):53-62.
[4]付云鹏,马树才,宋琪.中国区域碳排放强度的空间计量分析[J].统计研究,2015,32(6):67-73.
[5]马丽梅,张晓.中国雾霾污染的空间效应及经济、能源结构影响[J].中国工业经济,2014(4):19-31.
[6]东童童,李欣,刘乃全.空间视角下工业集聚对雾霾污染的影响---理论与经验研究[J].经济管理,2015,37(9):29-41.
[7]邵帅,李欣,曹建华,等.中国雾霾污染治理的经济政策选择---基于空间溢出效应的视角[J].经济研究,2016(9):73-88.
[8]东童童.雾霾污染(PM2.5)、工业集聚与工业效率的交互影响研究[J].软科学,2016(3):26-30.
[9]康雨.贸易开放程度对雾霾的影响分析---基于中国省级面板数据的空间计量研究[J].经济科学,2016(1):114-125.
[10]马丽梅,刘生龙,张晓.能源结构、交通模式与雾霾污染---基于空间计量模型的研究[J].财贸经济,2016,37(1):147-160.
[11]张生玲,王雨涵,李跃,等.中国雾霾空间分布特征及影响因素分析[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2017,27(9):15-22.
[12]刘晓红,江可申.我国雾霾污染影响因素的空间效应---基于PM2.5的实证分析[J].科技管理研究,2017,37(12):247-252.
[13]刘华军,裴延峰.我国雾霾污染的环境库兹涅茨曲线检验[J].统计研究,2017,34(3):45-54.
[14]严雅雪,齐绍洲.外商直接投资对中国城市雾霾(PM2.5)污染的时空效应检验[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2017(4):68-77.
[15]回莹,戴宏伟.河北省产业结构对雾霾天气影响的实证研究[J].经济与管理,2017,31(3):87-92.
[16]EHRLICH P R,HOLDREN J P.Impact of population growth[J].Science,1971,171(3977):1212-1217.
[17]HOLDREN J P,EHRLICH P R.Human population and the global environment[J].American scientist,1974,62(3):282-292.
[18]WAGGONER P E,AUSUBEL J H.A framework for sus-tainability science:a renovated IPAT identity[J].Pro-ceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,2002,99(12):7860-7865.
[19]DIETZ T,ROSA E A.Rethinking the environmental impacts of population,affluence and technology[J].Hu-man ecology review,1994,2(1):277-300.
[20]潘文卿.中国的区域关联与经济增长的空间溢出效应[J].经济研究,2012,47(1):54-65.
[21]姜磊.空间回归模型选择的反思[J].统计与信息论坛,2016(10):10-16.
(1)http://sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/data/set/sdei-global-annual-avg-pm2-5-modis-misr-seawifs-aod-1998-2012/data-download。