强震前地震时空相关特征研究
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摘要
首先,基于强震前地震活动时间变异系数与b值之间具有相关性,对我国四十次6.5级以上强震震例的震前地震活动时空相关特征作讨论。其次,尝试利用相关过程中"第一阶段"的特性来预测未来强震三要素,给出了预测时间、震级的经验公式。最后,对相关过程"第一阶段"判定的可靠性进行了讨论。
Based on the correlation between the temporal variability coefficient of seismic activity before strong earthquakes and the b-value, the relative characteristics of space and time of 40 strong earthquake cases(M>6.5) are discussed in this paper. The analysis indicated that the correlation coefficient curve has the stage feature, which is caused by the b-value being deviated in the relative temporal stage with stress field variation. Next, the three elements of future strong earthquakes were estimated using the feature of the first stage of the correlation process, and some empirical formulas for predicting time and magnitude are given. Finally, the reliability of the first stage of the correlation process is discussed. The research results of this study were not apparent for small and moderate earthquakes.
Based on the correlation between the temporal variability coefficient of seismic activity before strong earthquakes and the b-value, the relative characteristics of space and time of 40 strong earthquake cases(M>6.5) are discussed in this paper. The analysis indicated that the correlation coefficient curve has the stage feature, which is caused by the b-value being deviated in the relative temporal stage with stress field variation. Next, the three elements of future strong earthquakes were estimated using the feature of the first stage of the correlation process, and some empirical formulas for predicting time and magnitude are given. Finally, the reliability of the first stage of the correlation process is discussed. The research results of this study were not apparent for small and moderate earthquakes.
引文
[1] 顾瑾萍,李刚,黎明晓.地震活动时空关联研究[J].自然科学,2016,4(1):92-101.GU Jinping,LI Gang,LI Mingxiao.Seismic Activity Research in Relative Temporal Stage[J].Open Journal of Nature Science,2016,4(1):92-101.
[2] 顾瑾萍,姜龙.中强地震时间预测研究[J].地震,2014,34(2):138-142.GU Jinping,JIANG Long.A Method for Time Forecast of Intermediate to Strong Earthquakes[J].Earthquake,2014,34(2):138-142.
[3] 吴忠良.地震震源物理中的临界现象[M].北京:地震出版社,2000.WU Zhongliang.The Critical Phenomena in Seismic Source Physics[M].Beijing:Seismological Press,2000.
[4] 罗灼礼,孟国杰,王伟君,等.地震活动涨落、自组织结构和大震临界状态的统计特征[J].地震,2004,24(4):1-15.LUO Zhuoli,MENG Guojie,WANG Weijun.Seismicitiy Flucuation,Self-organization Structure and Statistical Characteristics of Critical Stage of Large Earthquakes[J].Earthquake,2004,24(4):1-15.
[5] 顾瑾萍,郭铁栓,姜龙.水平引潮力极值天体时角表征与调制讨论[J].中国地震,2012,28(1):61-68.GU Jinping,GUO Tieshuan,JIANG Long.Globe Time Angle as a Token of Horizontal Tidal Force Extreme and Earthquake Modulation[J].Earthquake Research in China,2012,28(1):61-68.
[2] 顾瑾萍,姜龙.中强地震时间预测研究[J].地震,2014,34(2):138-142.GU Jinping,JIANG Long.A Method for Time Forecast of Intermediate to Strong Earthquakes[J].Earthquake,2014,34(2):138-142.
[3] 吴忠良.地震震源物理中的临界现象[M].北京:地震出版社,2000.WU Zhongliang.The Critical Phenomena in Seismic Source Physics[M].Beijing:Seismological Press,2000.
[4] 罗灼礼,孟国杰,王伟君,等.地震活动涨落、自组织结构和大震临界状态的统计特征[J].地震,2004,24(4):1-15.LUO Zhuoli,MENG Guojie,WANG Weijun.Seismicitiy Flucuation,Self-organization Structure and Statistical Characteristics of Critical Stage of Large Earthquakes[J].Earthquake,2004,24(4):1-15.
[5] 顾瑾萍,郭铁栓,姜龙.水平引潮力极值天体时角表征与调制讨论[J].中国地震,2012,28(1):61-68.GU Jinping,GUO Tieshuan,JIANG Long.Globe Time Angle as a Token of Horizontal Tidal Force Extreme and Earthquake Modulation[J].Earthquake Research in China,2012,28(1):61-68.