中国及其周边国家间地缘关系解析
|
摘要
地缘关系研究作为地理学中一个重要研究领域越来越受到学者关注,开展基于大数据的地缘关系的定量研究,是对传统地缘关系研究的重要补充。利用新闻媒体大数据GDELT从全球性的视角将中国及其周边国家间地缘关系综合表达为合作与冲突关系,通过有序聚类方法识别中国及其周边国家合作与冲突的阶段划分,并对不同阶段国家间的合作与冲突关系进行社会网络分析,利用社区探索等工具对合作与冲突网络进一步剖析和解译,最后对不同时段内突出的双边关系进行对应分析,以及以中国为中心的均衡度分析。结果发现:1979-2017年中国及其周边国家间合作与冲突关系在时间上表现出明显的3个阶段,中国逐渐成为网络的中心,形成了以中国为中心,以俄、日、韩为支撑的广泛合作格局;中越、中日、中俄、朝韩等各阶段突出的双边关系表现出各异的发展态势和驱动因素;伴随着中国和平崛起的进程,中国与周边国家的合作越来越均衡,与此同时中国与周边国家的冲突范围不断扩大。
Geo-relationships, as an important field of research in geography, have attracted much attention from scholars. Quantitative research on geo-relationships based on big data is an important supplement to traditional geo-relationships study. This paper uses GDELT mass media data to express the geo-relationships between China and its neighboring countries as a global relationship of cooperation and conflict, and identifies the stage division of these relationships using ordered cluster analysis. Social network analysis is conducted for each stage of the cooperation and conflict relationship, and community detection is used to further analyze and interpret the networks of cooperation and conflict. Finally, we highlight bilateral relations in various stages and conduct a China-centered equilibrium analysis. Three main results are presented. First, from 1979 to 2017, the cooperation and conflict relationship between China and its neighboring countries demonstrated an obvious three-stage temporal division. China has gradually become the center of the network, and a broad cooperation pattern centered on China and supported by Russia, Japan, and South Korea has formed. Second, the highlighted bilateral relations in each stage, such as China-Vietnam, China-Japan, China-Russia, and DPRK-ROK,show varied development trends and driving factors. Third, with the process of China's peaceful rise, cooperation between the country and its neighbors is becoming more and more balanced, and conflict between them is expanding.
Geo-relationships, as an important field of research in geography, have attracted much attention from scholars. Quantitative research on geo-relationships based on big data is an important supplement to traditional geo-relationships study. This paper uses GDELT mass media data to express the geo-relationships between China and its neighboring countries as a global relationship of cooperation and conflict, and identifies the stage division of these relationships using ordered cluster analysis. Social network analysis is conducted for each stage of the cooperation and conflict relationship, and community detection is used to further analyze and interpret the networks of cooperation and conflict. Finally, we highlight bilateral relations in various stages and conduct a China-centered equilibrium analysis. Three main results are presented. First, from 1979 to 2017, the cooperation and conflict relationship between China and its neighboring countries demonstrated an obvious three-stage temporal division. China has gradually become the center of the network, and a broad cooperation pattern centered on China and supported by Russia, Japan, and South Korea has formed. Second, the highlighted bilateral relations in each stage, such as China-Vietnam, China-Japan, China-Russia, and DPRK-ROK,show varied development trends and driving factors. Third, with the process of China's peaceful rise, cooperation between the country and its neighbors is becoming more and more balanced, and conflict between them is expanding.
引文
[1]Friedrich R.Politische Geographie.Munich and Berlin:Oldenbourg,1923.
[2]Geoffrey Parker.Li Yiming trans.Western Geopolitical Thought in the Twentieth Century.Beijing:People's Liberation Army Publishing House,1992:12.[杰弗里?帕克.李亦鸣等译.二十世纪的西方地理政治思想.北京:解放军出版社,1992:12.]
[3]Cohen B S.Geopolitics:The Geography of International Relations.Shanghai:Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences Press,2014.[索尔?科恩.地缘政治学:国际关系的地理学.上海:社会科学院出版社,2014.]
[4]Hu Zhiding,Ge Yuejing,Bao Jie,et al.The spatial pattern and differentiation laws of geo-setting in South Asia.Scientia Geographica Sinica,2013,33(6):685-692.[胡志丁,葛岳静,鲍捷,等.南亚地缘环境的空间格局与分异规律研究.地理科学,2013,33(6):685-692.]
[5]Song Changqing,Ge Yuejing,Liu Yungang,et al.Undertaking research on Belt and Road Initiative from the georelation perspective.Geographical Research,2018,37(1):3-19.[宋长青,葛岳静,刘云刚,等.从地缘关系视角解析“一带一路”的行动路径.地理研究,2018,37(1):3-19.]
[6]Lu Dadao,Du Debin.Some thoughts on the strengthening of geopolitical and geo-economic studies.Acta Geographica Sinica,2013,68(6):723-727.[陆大道,杜德斌.关于加强地缘政治地缘经济研究的思考.地理学报,2013,68(6):723-727.]
[7]Huang Renwei.Geo-theory evolution and China's road of peaceful development.Contemporary International Relations,2010(Suppl.1):18-25.[黄仁伟.地缘理论演变与中国和平发展道路.现代国际关系,2010(Suppl.1):18-25.]
[8]Mao Hanying.Geopolitical and geo-economic situation in the surrounding areas and China's strategies.Progress in Geography,2014,33(3):289-302.[毛汉英.中国周边地缘政治与地缘经济格局和对策.地理科学进展,2014,33(3):289-302.]
[9]Yu Guozheng,Zhou Ling,Chen Wei.Analysis on the development posture of China's peripheral marine georelationship.World Regional Studies,2015,24(4):11-19.[于国政,周玲,陈唯.中国周边海洋地缘关系发展态势探析.世界地理研究,2015,24(4):11-19.]
[10]Zhou Xiaonan,Chen Cai.On the standard research paradigm of geopolitics and geo-economics.Journal of Northeast Normal University(Philosophy and Social Sciences),2007(2):76-80.[周骁男,陈才.论地缘政治与地缘经济的研究范式.东北师大学报(哲学社会科学版),2007(2):76-80.]
[11]Liu Weidong.Scientific understanding of the Belt and Road Initiative of China and related research themes.Progress in Geography,2015,34(5):538-544.[刘卫东.“一带一路”战略的科学内涵与科学问题.地理科学进展,2015,34(5):538-544.]
[12]Du Debin,Ma Yahua.Geography of containment and anti-containment of China's peaceful rise.World Regional Studies,2012,21(1):1-16.[杜德斌,马亚华.中国崛起的国际地缘战略研究.世界地理研究,2012,21(1):1-16.]
[13]Li Xiao,Li Junjiu."One Belt and One Road"and the reshaping of China's geopolitical and geoeconomic strategy.World Economics and Politics,2015(10):30-59.[李晓,李俊久.“一带一路”战略与中国地缘政治经济战略的重构.世界经济与政治,2015(10):30-59.]
[14]Zeng Xianghong.The geopolitical imaginations of the"One Belt,One Road"Initiative and regional cooperation.World Economics and Politics,2016(1):46-71.[曾向红.“一带一路”的地缘政治想象与地区合作.世界经济与政治,2016(1):46-71.]
[15]Zhou Ping.The geopolitical risks faced by the"Belt and Road"and its control.Exploration and Free Views,2016(1):83-86.[周平.“一带一路”面临的地缘政治风险及其管控.探索与争鸣,2016(1):83-86.]
[16]Jiang Heng.Evaluation and management for geopolitical risks of the Belt and Road.Intertrade,2015(8):21-24.[蒋姮.“一带一路”地缘政治风险的评估与管理.国际贸易,2015(8):21-24.]
[17]Du Debin,Duan Dezhong,Yang Wenlong,et al.Spatial evolution pattern of Chinese economic power based on the sensitivity and vulnerability of states interdependence.Acta Geographica Sinica,2016,71(10):1741-1751.[杜德斌,段德忠,杨文龙,等.中国经济权力空间格局演化研究:基于国家间相互依存的敏感性与脆弱性分析.地理学报,2016,71(10):1741-1751.]
[18]Pan Fenghua,Lai Zhiyong,Ge Yuejing.The surrounding geopolitical environment of China:A social network analysis based on trade data.Geographical Research,2015,34(4):775-786.[潘峰华,赖志勇,葛岳静.经贸视角下中国周边地缘环境分析:基于社会网络分析方法.地理研究,2015,34(4):775-786.]
[19]Su Donghui,Luo Huasong,Cai Dingkun.Analysis of geo-economic relationships between the region of Southeast Asia and major outside countries.World Regional Studies,2013,22(1):1-11.[苏东辉,骆华松,蔡定昆.区外大国与东南亚地缘经济关系测度分析.世界地理研究,2013,22(1):1-11.]
[20]Yang Wenlong,Du Debin,Liu Chengliang,et al.Study on the spatial-temporal evolution and internal mechanism of geoeconomic connections of China.Acta Geographica Sinica,2016,71(6):956-969.[杨文龙,杜德斌,刘承良,等.中国地缘经济联系的时空演化特征及其内部机制.地理学报,2016,71(6):956-969.]
[21]Wang Shufang,Yang Huiting,Ge Yuejing,et al.A geopolitical relationship evolution based on the event data analysis.Economic Geography,2015,35(10):13-20.[王淑芳,阳婷慧,葛岳静,等.基于事件数据分析法的中缅地缘关系演变.经济地理,2015,35(10):13-20.]
[22]Song Changqing,Cheng Changxiu,Shi Peijun.Geography complexity:New connotations of geography in the new era.Acta Geographica Sinica,2018,73(7):1189-1198.[宋长青,程昌秀,史培军.新时代地理复杂性的内涵.地理学报,2018,73(7):1189-1198.]
[23]Cheng Changxiu,Shi Peijun,Song Changqing,et al.Geographic big-data:A new opportunity for geography complexity study.Acta Geographica Sinica,2018,73(8):1397-1406.[程昌秀,史培军,宋长青,等.地理大数据为地理复杂性研究提供新机遇.地理学报,2018,73(8):1397-1406.]
[24]Goldstein J S.A conflict-cooperation scale for WEIS events data.Journal of Conflict Resolution,1992,36(2):369-385.
[25]Yuan Y,Liu Y,Wei G.Exploring inter-country connection in mass media:A case study of China.Computers Environment&Urban Systems,2017,62:86-96.
[26]Brandt P T,Freeman J R,Schrodt P A.Evaluating forecasts of political conflict dynamics.International Journal of Forecasting,2014,30(4):944-962.
[27]Levin N,Ali S,Crandall D.Utilizing remote sensing and big data to quantify conflict intensity:The Arab Spring as a case study.Applied Geography,2018,94:1-17.
[28]Song Changqing,Wang Bengyu,Sun Xiangjun.Implication of paleovegetational changes in Diaojiao Lake,Inner Mongolia.Acta Botanica Sinica,1996,38(7):568-575.[宋长青,王琫瑜,孙湘君.内蒙古大青山DJ钻孔全新世古植被变化指示.植物学报,1996,38(7):568-575.]
[29]Yang Zhirong,Shi Peijun,Fang Xiuqi.Vegetation and environment development in Diaojiaohaizi area,Daqingshan Mountain.Acta Phytoecologica Sinica,1997,21(6):551-563.[杨志荣,史培军,方修琦.大青山调角海子地区11 ka B.P.以来的植被与生态环境演化.植物生态学报,1997,21(6):551-563.]
[30]Grimm E C.CONISS:A FORTRAN 77 program for stratigraphically constrained cluster analysis by the method of incremental sum of squares.Computers&Geosciences,1987,13(1):13-15.
[31]Pan Fenghua,Lai Zhiyong,Ge Yuejing.Social network analysis in geo-politics studies.Economic Geography,2013,33(7):15-21.[潘峰华,赖志勇,葛岳静.社会网络分析方法在地缘政治领域的应用.经济地理,2013,33(7):15-21.]
[32]Newman M E J.Finding and evaluating community structure in networks.Physical Review E,2004,69(026113):1-15.
[33]Newman M E J.Fast algorithm for detecting community structure in networks.Physical Review E,2004,69(066133):1-5.
[34]Newman M E J.Modularity and community structure in networks.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,2006,103(23):8577-8582.
[35]Blondel V D,Guillaume J L,Lambiotte R,et al.Fast unfolding of communities in large networks.Journal of Statistical Mechanics:Theory and Experiment,2008(10):1-11.
[36]Shannon C E.A mathematical theory of communication.The Bell System Technical Journal,1948,27:379-423.
[2]Geoffrey Parker.Li Yiming trans.Western Geopolitical Thought in the Twentieth Century.Beijing:People's Liberation Army Publishing House,1992:12.[杰弗里?帕克.李亦鸣等译.二十世纪的西方地理政治思想.北京:解放军出版社,1992:12.]
[3]Cohen B S.Geopolitics:The Geography of International Relations.Shanghai:Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences Press,2014.[索尔?科恩.地缘政治学:国际关系的地理学.上海:社会科学院出版社,2014.]
[4]Hu Zhiding,Ge Yuejing,Bao Jie,et al.The spatial pattern and differentiation laws of geo-setting in South Asia.Scientia Geographica Sinica,2013,33(6):685-692.[胡志丁,葛岳静,鲍捷,等.南亚地缘环境的空间格局与分异规律研究.地理科学,2013,33(6):685-692.]
[5]Song Changqing,Ge Yuejing,Liu Yungang,et al.Undertaking research on Belt and Road Initiative from the georelation perspective.Geographical Research,2018,37(1):3-19.[宋长青,葛岳静,刘云刚,等.从地缘关系视角解析“一带一路”的行动路径.地理研究,2018,37(1):3-19.]
[6]Lu Dadao,Du Debin.Some thoughts on the strengthening of geopolitical and geo-economic studies.Acta Geographica Sinica,2013,68(6):723-727.[陆大道,杜德斌.关于加强地缘政治地缘经济研究的思考.地理学报,2013,68(6):723-727.]
[7]Huang Renwei.Geo-theory evolution and China's road of peaceful development.Contemporary International Relations,2010(Suppl.1):18-25.[黄仁伟.地缘理论演变与中国和平发展道路.现代国际关系,2010(Suppl.1):18-25.]
[8]Mao Hanying.Geopolitical and geo-economic situation in the surrounding areas and China's strategies.Progress in Geography,2014,33(3):289-302.[毛汉英.中国周边地缘政治与地缘经济格局和对策.地理科学进展,2014,33(3):289-302.]
[9]Yu Guozheng,Zhou Ling,Chen Wei.Analysis on the development posture of China's peripheral marine georelationship.World Regional Studies,2015,24(4):11-19.[于国政,周玲,陈唯.中国周边海洋地缘关系发展态势探析.世界地理研究,2015,24(4):11-19.]
[10]Zhou Xiaonan,Chen Cai.On the standard research paradigm of geopolitics and geo-economics.Journal of Northeast Normal University(Philosophy and Social Sciences),2007(2):76-80.[周骁男,陈才.论地缘政治与地缘经济的研究范式.东北师大学报(哲学社会科学版),2007(2):76-80.]
[11]Liu Weidong.Scientific understanding of the Belt and Road Initiative of China and related research themes.Progress in Geography,2015,34(5):538-544.[刘卫东.“一带一路”战略的科学内涵与科学问题.地理科学进展,2015,34(5):538-544.]
[12]Du Debin,Ma Yahua.Geography of containment and anti-containment of China's peaceful rise.World Regional Studies,2012,21(1):1-16.[杜德斌,马亚华.中国崛起的国际地缘战略研究.世界地理研究,2012,21(1):1-16.]
[13]Li Xiao,Li Junjiu."One Belt and One Road"and the reshaping of China's geopolitical and geoeconomic strategy.World Economics and Politics,2015(10):30-59.[李晓,李俊久.“一带一路”战略与中国地缘政治经济战略的重构.世界经济与政治,2015(10):30-59.]
[14]Zeng Xianghong.The geopolitical imaginations of the"One Belt,One Road"Initiative and regional cooperation.World Economics and Politics,2016(1):46-71.[曾向红.“一带一路”的地缘政治想象与地区合作.世界经济与政治,2016(1):46-71.]
[15]Zhou Ping.The geopolitical risks faced by the"Belt and Road"and its control.Exploration and Free Views,2016(1):83-86.[周平.“一带一路”面临的地缘政治风险及其管控.探索与争鸣,2016(1):83-86.]
[16]Jiang Heng.Evaluation and management for geopolitical risks of the Belt and Road.Intertrade,2015(8):21-24.[蒋姮.“一带一路”地缘政治风险的评估与管理.国际贸易,2015(8):21-24.]
[17]Du Debin,Duan Dezhong,Yang Wenlong,et al.Spatial evolution pattern of Chinese economic power based on the sensitivity and vulnerability of states interdependence.Acta Geographica Sinica,2016,71(10):1741-1751.[杜德斌,段德忠,杨文龙,等.中国经济权力空间格局演化研究:基于国家间相互依存的敏感性与脆弱性分析.地理学报,2016,71(10):1741-1751.]
[18]Pan Fenghua,Lai Zhiyong,Ge Yuejing.The surrounding geopolitical environment of China:A social network analysis based on trade data.Geographical Research,2015,34(4):775-786.[潘峰华,赖志勇,葛岳静.经贸视角下中国周边地缘环境分析:基于社会网络分析方法.地理研究,2015,34(4):775-786.]
[19]Su Donghui,Luo Huasong,Cai Dingkun.Analysis of geo-economic relationships between the region of Southeast Asia and major outside countries.World Regional Studies,2013,22(1):1-11.[苏东辉,骆华松,蔡定昆.区外大国与东南亚地缘经济关系测度分析.世界地理研究,2013,22(1):1-11.]
[20]Yang Wenlong,Du Debin,Liu Chengliang,et al.Study on the spatial-temporal evolution and internal mechanism of geoeconomic connections of China.Acta Geographica Sinica,2016,71(6):956-969.[杨文龙,杜德斌,刘承良,等.中国地缘经济联系的时空演化特征及其内部机制.地理学报,2016,71(6):956-969.]
[21]Wang Shufang,Yang Huiting,Ge Yuejing,et al.A geopolitical relationship evolution based on the event data analysis.Economic Geography,2015,35(10):13-20.[王淑芳,阳婷慧,葛岳静,等.基于事件数据分析法的中缅地缘关系演变.经济地理,2015,35(10):13-20.]
[22]Song Changqing,Cheng Changxiu,Shi Peijun.Geography complexity:New connotations of geography in the new era.Acta Geographica Sinica,2018,73(7):1189-1198.[宋长青,程昌秀,史培军.新时代地理复杂性的内涵.地理学报,2018,73(7):1189-1198.]
[23]Cheng Changxiu,Shi Peijun,Song Changqing,et al.Geographic big-data:A new opportunity for geography complexity study.Acta Geographica Sinica,2018,73(8):1397-1406.[程昌秀,史培军,宋长青,等.地理大数据为地理复杂性研究提供新机遇.地理学报,2018,73(8):1397-1406.]
[24]Goldstein J S.A conflict-cooperation scale for WEIS events data.Journal of Conflict Resolution,1992,36(2):369-385.
[25]Yuan Y,Liu Y,Wei G.Exploring inter-country connection in mass media:A case study of China.Computers Environment&Urban Systems,2017,62:86-96.
[26]Brandt P T,Freeman J R,Schrodt P A.Evaluating forecasts of political conflict dynamics.International Journal of Forecasting,2014,30(4):944-962.
[27]Levin N,Ali S,Crandall D.Utilizing remote sensing and big data to quantify conflict intensity:The Arab Spring as a case study.Applied Geography,2018,94:1-17.
[28]Song Changqing,Wang Bengyu,Sun Xiangjun.Implication of paleovegetational changes in Diaojiao Lake,Inner Mongolia.Acta Botanica Sinica,1996,38(7):568-575.[宋长青,王琫瑜,孙湘君.内蒙古大青山DJ钻孔全新世古植被变化指示.植物学报,1996,38(7):568-575.]
[29]Yang Zhirong,Shi Peijun,Fang Xiuqi.Vegetation and environment development in Diaojiaohaizi area,Daqingshan Mountain.Acta Phytoecologica Sinica,1997,21(6):551-563.[杨志荣,史培军,方修琦.大青山调角海子地区11 ka B.P.以来的植被与生态环境演化.植物生态学报,1997,21(6):551-563.]
[30]Grimm E C.CONISS:A FORTRAN 77 program for stratigraphically constrained cluster analysis by the method of incremental sum of squares.Computers&Geosciences,1987,13(1):13-15.
[31]Pan Fenghua,Lai Zhiyong,Ge Yuejing.Social network analysis in geo-politics studies.Economic Geography,2013,33(7):15-21.[潘峰华,赖志勇,葛岳静.社会网络分析方法在地缘政治领域的应用.经济地理,2013,33(7):15-21.]
[32]Newman M E J.Finding and evaluating community structure in networks.Physical Review E,2004,69(026113):1-15.
[33]Newman M E J.Fast algorithm for detecting community structure in networks.Physical Review E,2004,69(066133):1-5.
[34]Newman M E J.Modularity and community structure in networks.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,2006,103(23):8577-8582.
[35]Blondel V D,Guillaume J L,Lambiotte R,et al.Fast unfolding of communities in large networks.Journal of Statistical Mechanics:Theory and Experiment,2008(10):1-11.
[36]Shannon C E.A mathematical theory of communication.The Bell System Technical Journal,1948,27:379-423.