长三角地区城市土地与能源消费CO_2排放的时空耦合分析
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摘要
探究城市土地与碳排放的时空耦合关系,是协调城市土地与生态环境亟待解决的重要问题。基于重心模型、总体耦合态势模型和空间耦合协调模型,使用建成区面积、能源消费和DMSP/OLS夜间灯光等数据,分析了1995—2013年长三角地区城市土地与能源消费碳排放的时空耦合特征,并考虑空间因素的影响,构建空间滞后面板Tobit模型分析其驱动因素。结果表明:①1995—2013年,建成区面积与碳排放量总体上均呈增加趋势。建成区面积由1251 km~2,增加至4394 km~2,碳排放量由30389.49万t,增加至90405.22万t。城市土地与碳排放间呈显著的正相关;②城市土地与碳排放空间差异明显,上海、南京、杭州、苏州和无锡的城市建成区面积相对较大,碳排放相对较高;③长三角地区城市土地与碳排放耦合关系总体上呈减弱-增强-波动的态势。协调关系处于不断演化过程中,低协调阶段的城市数量明显减小,高协调阶段的城市数量明显增加,且呈集聚分布特点。南京、无锡、苏州、杭州和宁波处于高协调阶段;④空间滞后面板Tobit模型结果表明:城镇化对城市土地与碳排放耦合协调度具有驱动和制动的双重作用。同时,人口密度、经济水平、产业结构和空间因素对其也具有重要影响。
Exploring the spatio-temporal coupling relationship between urban land and carbon emissions is an important issue to be solved urgently to coordinate urban land and ecological environment. Based on data such as built-up area, energy consumption, and DMSP/OLS night lights, the spatio-temporal coupling relationship between urban land and carbon emissions from energy consumption of the Yangtze River Delta region during 1995-2013 was analyzed by the gravity center model, overall coupled situation model, and spatial coupling coordination model.By taking into account the influence of spatial factors, spatial lag panel Tobit model was constructed to analyze its driving factors. The results are shown as follows:(1)During the period of 1995-2013, built-up area and carbon emissions from energy consumption generally increased. The built-up area increased from 1251 km~2 to 4394 km~2. Carbon emissions from energy consumption increased from 303.89 million tons to 904.05 million tons. There was significantly positive correlation between built-up area and carbon emissions.(2) There was obvious spatial disparity for urban land and carbon emissions from energy consumption. There were larger built-up areas and higher carbon emissions from energy consumption in Shanghai,Nanjing, Hangzhou, Suzhou and Wuxi.(3) The coupling relationship between urban land and carbon emissions of the Yangtze River Delta generally showed a pattern of first weakened, then strengthened and last fluctuated. The coordination relationship was in the process of continuous evolution. The number of cities in the low-coordination phase obviously decreased, while that in the high-coordination phase obviously increased. Nanjing, Wuxi, Suzhou, Hangzhou and Ningbo were in high coordination.(4) The results of spatial lag Tobit model show that urbanization played a dual role in driving and braking the coupling degree of carbon emissions between urban land and carbon emissions from energy consumption. Meanwhile, population density, economic level, industrial structure and spatial factors had an important impact on the coupling degree. Population density and industrial structure played a significantly positive role in improving the coupling degree. Economic level and spatial factors had a negative impact on the coupling degree.
Exploring the spatio-temporal coupling relationship between urban land and carbon emissions is an important issue to be solved urgently to coordinate urban land and ecological environment. Based on data such as built-up area, energy consumption, and DMSP/OLS night lights, the spatio-temporal coupling relationship between urban land and carbon emissions from energy consumption of the Yangtze River Delta region during 1995-2013 was analyzed by the gravity center model, overall coupled situation model, and spatial coupling coordination model.By taking into account the influence of spatial factors, spatial lag panel Tobit model was constructed to analyze its driving factors. The results are shown as follows:(1)During the period of 1995-2013, built-up area and carbon emissions from energy consumption generally increased. The built-up area increased from 1251 km~2 to 4394 km~2. Carbon emissions from energy consumption increased from 303.89 million tons to 904.05 million tons. There was significantly positive correlation between built-up area and carbon emissions.(2) There was obvious spatial disparity for urban land and carbon emissions from energy consumption. There were larger built-up areas and higher carbon emissions from energy consumption in Shanghai,Nanjing, Hangzhou, Suzhou and Wuxi.(3) The coupling relationship between urban land and carbon emissions of the Yangtze River Delta generally showed a pattern of first weakened, then strengthened and last fluctuated. The coordination relationship was in the process of continuous evolution. The number of cities in the low-coordination phase obviously decreased, while that in the high-coordination phase obviously increased. Nanjing, Wuxi, Suzhou, Hangzhou and Ningbo were in high coordination.(4) The results of spatial lag Tobit model show that urbanization played a dual role in driving and braking the coupling degree of carbon emissions between urban land and carbon emissions from energy consumption. Meanwhile, population density, economic level, industrial structure and spatial factors had an important impact on the coupling degree. Population density and industrial structure played a significantly positive role in improving the coupling degree. Economic level and spatial factors had a negative impact on the coupling degree.
引文
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[23]孙黄平,黄震方,徐冬冬,等.泛长三角城市群城镇化与生态环境耦合的空间特征与驱动机制.经济地理,2017,37(2):163-170+186.[Sun Huangping,Huang Zhenfang,Xu Dongdong,et al.The spatial characteristics and drive mechanism of coupling relationship between urbanization and eco-environment in the Pan Yangtze River Delta.Economic Geography,2017,37(2):163-170,186.]
[24]吕晓,臧涛,张全景.土地政策的农户认知及其农地转出响应研究:基于山东省287份农户问卷调查的实证[J].南京农业大学学报(社会科学版),2017,17(5):100-110+154.[Lv Xiao,Zang Tao,Zhang Quanjing.Farm households’cognition of land policy and its effect on farmland transfer:Based on the investigation of 287 farmer households in Shandong province.Journal of Nanjing Agricultural University(Social Sciences Edition),2017,17(5):100-110,154.]
[2]陆大道,宋林飞,任平.中国城镇化发展模式:如何走向科学发展之路.苏州大学学报:哲学社会科学版,2007,(2):1-7.[Lu Dadao,Song Linfei,Ren Ping.China's urbanization development model:How to move toward the path of scientific development.Academic Journal of Suzhou University(Philosophy and Social Science),2007,(2):1-7.]
[3]陆大道,姚士谋,李国平,等.基于我国国情的城镇化过程综合分析.经济地理,2007,27(6):883-887.[Lu Dadao,Yao Shimou,Li Guoping,et al.Comprehensive analysis of the urbanization process based on China’s conditions.Economic Geography,2007,27(6):883-887.]
[4]方创琳,周成虎,顾朝林,等.特大城市群地区城镇化与生态环境交互耦合效应解析的理论框架及技术路径.地理学报,2016,71(4):531-550.[Fang Chuanglin,Zhou Chenghu,Gu Chaolin,et al.Theoretical analysis of interactive coupled effects between urbanization and eco-environment in mega-urban agglomerations.Acta Geographica Sinica,2016,71(4):531-550.]
[5]赖力.中国土地利用的碳排放效应研究.南京:南京大学博士学位论文,2010.[Lai Li.Carbon emission effect of land use in China.Nanjing:Doctoral Dissertation of Nanjing University,2010.]
[6]Araujo M S M,Silva C,Campos C P.Land use change sector contribution to the carbon historical emissions and the sustainability.Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews,2009,13(3):696-702.
[7]Zhao R,Huang X,Liu Y,et al.Carbon emission of regional land use and its decomposition analysis:Case study of Nanjing city,China.Chinese Geographical Science,2015,25(2):198-212.
[8]曾德珩,罗丽姿.城市扩张与转型对碳排放影响研究.统计与决策,2014,(17):115-119.[Zeng Deheng,Luo Lizi.The impact of urban expansion and transformation on carbon emissions.Statistics&Decision,2014,(17):115-119.]
[9]杜官印.建设用地对碳排放的影响关系研究.中国土地科学,2010,24(5):32-36.[Du Guanyin.Research on influences of construction land on carbon emission.China Land Science,2010,24(5):32-36.]
[10]毛熙彦,林坚,蒙吉军.中国建设用地增长对碳排放的影响.中国人口·资源与环境,2011,21(12):34-40.[Mao Xiyan,Lin Jian,Meng Jijun.Effects of construction land expansion on carbon dioxide emission in China.China Population,Resources and Environment,2011,21(12):34-40.]
[11]Kalnay E,Cai M.Impact of urbanization and land-use change on climate.Nature,2003,423(6939):528.
[12]Jiang W,Deng Y,Tang Z,et al.Modelling the potential impacts of urban ecosystem changes on carbon storage under different scenarios by linking the CLUE-S and the InVEST models.Ecological Modelling,2017,(345):30-40.
[13]赵荣钦,李志萍,韩宇平,等.区域“水-土-能-碳”耦合作用机制分析.地理学报,2016,71(9):1613-1628.[Zhao Rongqin,Li Zhiping,Han Yuping,et al.The coupling interaction mechanism of regional water-land-energy-carbon system.Acta Geographica Sinica,2016,71(9):1613-1628.]
[14]Tian G,Jiang J,Yang Z,et al.The urban growth,size distribution and spatio-temporal dynamic pattern of the Yangtze River Delta megalopolitan region,China.Ecological Modelling,2011,222(3):865-878.
[15]Liu Z,He C,Zhang Q,et al.Extracting the dynamics of urban expansion in China using DMSP-OLS nighttime light data from 1992 to 2008.Landscape and Urban Planning,2012,106(1):62-72.
[16]Su Y,Chen X,Wang C,et al.A new method for extracting built-up urban areas using DMSP-OLS nighttime stable lights:A case study in the Pearl River Delta,southern China.GIScience&Remote Sensing,2015,52(2):218-238.
[17]陈志刚,王青,黄贤金,等.长三角城市群重心移动及其驱动因素研究.地理科学,2007,27(4):457-462.[Chen Zhigang,Wang Qing,Huang Xianjin,et al.Movement of urban agglomeration gravity and its driving forces in the Yangtze Delta of China.Scientia Geographica Sinica,2007,27(4):457-462.]
[18]樊杰,陶岸君,吕晨.中国经济与人口重心的耦合态势及其对区域发展的影响.地理科学进展,2010,29(1):87-95.[Fan Jie,Tao Anjun,Lv Chen.The Coupling mechanism of the centroids of economic gravity and population gravity and its effect on the regional gap in China.Progress in Geography,2010,29(1):87-95.]
[19]Li Y,Li Y,Zhou Y,et al.Investigation of a coupling model of coordination between urbanization and the environment.Journal of Environmental Management,2012,98:127-133.
[20]刘浩,张毅,郑文升.城市土地集约利用与区域城市化的时空耦合协调发展评价:以环渤海地区城市为例.地理研究,2011,30(10):1805-1817.[Liu Hao,Zhang Yi,Zheng Wensheng.Evaluation on spatio-temporal development and interaction of intensive urban land use and urbanization:Case studies of the cities in the Bohai rim region.Geographical Research,2011,30(10):1805-1817.]
[21]周艳,黄贤金,徐国良,等.长三角城市土地扩张与人口增长耦合态势及其驱动机制.地理研究,2016,35(2):313-324.[Zhou Yan,Huang XianJin,Xu Guoliang,et al.The coupling and driving forces between urban land expansion and population growth in Yangtze River Delta.Geographical Research,2016,35(2):313-324.]
[22]陈晓红,万鲁河.城市化与生态环境耦合的脆弱性与协调性作用机制研究.地理科学,2013,33(12):1450-1457.[Chen Xiaohong,Wan Luhe.The interactive mechanisms for the coordination and vulnerability between regional urban and eco-environment.Scientia Geographica Sinica,2013,33(12):1450-1457.]
[23]孙黄平,黄震方,徐冬冬,等.泛长三角城市群城镇化与生态环境耦合的空间特征与驱动机制.经济地理,2017,37(2):163-170+186.[Sun Huangping,Huang Zhenfang,Xu Dongdong,et al.The spatial characteristics and drive mechanism of coupling relationship between urbanization and eco-environment in the Pan Yangtze River Delta.Economic Geography,2017,37(2):163-170,186.]
[24]吕晓,臧涛,张全景.土地政策的农户认知及其农地转出响应研究:基于山东省287份农户问卷调查的实证[J].南京农业大学学报(社会科学版),2017,17(5):100-110+154.[Lv Xiao,Zang Tao,Zhang Quanjing.Farm households’cognition of land policy and its effect on farmland transfer:Based on the investigation of 287 farmer households in Shandong province.Journal of Nanjing Agricultural University(Social Sciences Edition),2017,17(5):100-110,154.]