基于绿色索罗模型的中国碳排放峰值预测
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摘要
本文对环境库兹涅茨曲线经典理论绿色索罗模型在微观基础的建立上进行改进,按照中国经济数据进行参数的校准与拟定,从理论和数值模拟的层面支持了中国数据的总体趋势和国内学者相关实证研究的结论:中国温室气体排放还未达到环境库兹涅茨曲线的拐点。更进一步,本文第一次使用理论模型预测出中国CO_2排放的库兹涅茨曲线拐点(2030年左右),该预测高度契合了我国的2020、2030减排目标。同时,基于改变环境治理支出的反事实分析,本文发现加快减排技术进步相较提高治理支出,对于促进排放总量下降的效果更为明显。因此,在经济发展进入新常态的当下,我国应进一步优化能源的生产结构,同时通过增加技术投入、提高生产效率和优化所有制结构等途径,推动节能技术进步。
This paper improves the classical theoretical model of the environmental Kuznets curve,the Green Solow Model on the establishment of the micro-foundation, and calibrates the parameters according to Chinese economic data. The results support the general trends of Chinese data and the conclusions made by domestic empirical researches from perspectives of theory and numerical simulation. Furthermore,through the numerical simulation method,it uses the theoretical model for the first time to predict the Kuznets curve inflection point of China's carbon dioxide emissions(around 2030), which is highly consistent with China's 2020 and 2030 emission reduction targets. Finally,based on the counterfactual analysis of changing environmental governance expenditures, it finds that the acceleration of emission reduction technological progress is more effective than improving governance expenditures in terms of accelerating the reduction of total emissions.
This paper improves the classical theoretical model of the environmental Kuznets curve,the Green Solow Model on the establishment of the micro-foundation, and calibrates the parameters according to Chinese economic data. The results support the general trends of Chinese data and the conclusions made by domestic empirical researches from perspectives of theory and numerical simulation. Furthermore,through the numerical simulation method,it uses the theoretical model for the first time to predict the Kuznets curve inflection point of China's carbon dioxide emissions(around 2030), which is highly consistent with China's 2020 and 2030 emission reduction targets. Finally,based on the counterfactual analysis of changing environmental governance expenditures, it finds that the acceleration of emission reduction technological progress is more effective than improving governance expenditures in terms of accelerating the reduction of total emissions.
引文
①Brian R.Copeland and M.Scott Taylor,“Trade,Growth,and the Environment,” Journal of Economic Literature,vol.42,no.1,2004,pp.7-71.
②Nancy L.Stokey,“Are There Limits to Growth?” International Economic Review,vol.39,no.1,1998,pp.1-31;James Andreoni and A.Levinson,“The Simple Analytics of the Environmental Kuznets Curve,” Journal of Public Economics,vol.80,no.2,2001,pp.269-286;Lopez Ramon,“The Environment as a Factor of Production:The Effects of Economic Growth and Trade Liberalization,” Journal of Environmental Economics & Management,vol.27,no.2,2004,pp.163-184.
③(36)William A.Brock and M.S.Taylor,“The Green Solow Model,” Journal of Economic Growth,vol.15,no.2,2010,pp.127-153.
④使用Matlab编程语言配合Dynare动态优化模型求解程序模块进行数值模拟分析。
⑤参见G.M.Grossman and A.B.Krueger,“Environmental Impacts of a North American Free Trade Agreement,” in P.Garber,ed.,The US-Mexico Free Trade Agreement,Cambridge:MIT Press,1994.
⑥Paul M.Romer,“The Origins of Endogenous Growth,” Journal of Economic Perspectives,vol.8,no.1,1994,pp.3-22.
⑦Gene M.Grossman and Alan B.Krueger,“Economic Growth and the Environment,” The Quarterly Journal of Economics,vol.110,no.2,1995,pp.353-377;Thomas M.Selden and Daqing Song,“Environmental Quality and Development:Is There a Kuznets Curve for Air Pollution Emissions?” Journal of Environmental Economics and Management,vol.27,no.2,1994,pp.147-162.
⑧Kankesu,Jayanthakumaran,Reetu Verma and Ying Liu,“CO2 Emissions,Energy Consumption,Trade and Income:A Comparative Analysis of China and India,” Energy Policy,vol.42,2012,pp.450-460.
⑨Kakali Kanjilal and Sajal Ghosh,“Environmental Kuznets Curve for India:Evidence from Tests for Cointegration with Unknown Structural Breaks,” Energy Policy,vol.56,2013,pp.509-515.
⑩林伯强、蒋竺均:《中国二氧化碳的环境库兹涅茨曲线预测及影响因素分析》,《管理世界》2009年第4期。
(11)魏巍贤、杨芳:《技术进步对中国二氧化碳排放的影响》,《统计研究》2010年第7期。
(12)许广月、宋德勇:《中国碳排放环境库兹涅茨曲线的实证研究——基于省域面板数据》,《中国工业经济》2010年第5期。
(13)涂正革:《工业二氧化硫排放的影子价格:一个新的分析框架》,《经济学(季刊)》2009年第1期。
(14)Tao Song,Tingguo Zheng and Lianjun Tong,“An Empirical Test of the Environmental Kuznets Curve in China:A Panel Cointegration Approach,” China Economic Review,vol.19,no.3,2008,pp.381-392.
(15)符淼、黄灼明:《我国经济发展阶段和环境污染的库兹涅茨关系》,《中国工业经济》2008年第6期。
(16)Junyi Shen,“A Simultaneous Estimation of Environmental Kuznets Curve:Evidence from China,” China Economic Review,vol.17,no.4,2006,pp.383-394.
(17)包群、彭水军:《经济增长与环境污染:基于面板数据的联立方程估计》,《世界经济》2006年第11期。
(18)(22)朱平辉、袁加军、曾五一:《中国工业环境库兹涅茨曲线分析——基于空间面板模型的经验研究》,《中国工业经济》2010年第6期。
(19)王敏、黄滢:《中国的环境污染与经济增长》,《经济学(季刊)》2015年第2期。
(20)陈诗一、陈登科:《雾霾污染、政府治理与经济高质量发展》,《经济研究》2018年第2期。
(21)符淼:《我国环境库兹涅茨曲线:形态、拐点和影响因素》,《数量经济技术经济研究》2008年第11期。
(23)J.He and H.Wang,“Economic Structure,Development Policy and Environmental Quality:An Empirical Analysis of Environmental Kuznets Curves with Chinese Municipal Data,” Ecological Economics,vol.76,2012,pp.49-59.
(24)(28)涂正革:《能源安全与中国节能的现实路径》 ,《华中师范大学学报(人文社会科学版)》2012年第1期。
(25)Ming Zhang,et al.,“Decomposition of Energy-Related CO2 Emission over 1991-2006 in China,” Ecological Economics,vol.68,no.7,2009,pp.2122-2128;王锋、吴丽华、杨超:《中国经济发展中碳排放增长的驱动因素研究》,《经济研究》2010年第2期;涂正革、谌仁俊:《工业化、城镇化的动态边际碳排放量研究——基于LMDI“两层完全分解法”的分析框架》,《中国工业经济》2013年第9期。
(26)David I.Stern and Michael S.Common,“Is There an Environmental Kuznets Curve for Sulfur?” Journal of Environmental Economics and Management,vol.42,no.2,2001,pp.162-178;William T.Harbaugh,Arik Levinson,and David Molloy Wilson,“Reexamining the Empirical Evidence for an Environmental Kuznets Curve,” Review of Economics and Statistics,vol,84,no.3,2002,pp.541-551;Soumyananda Dinda,“Environmental Kuznets Curve Hypothesis:A Survey,” Ecological Economics,vol.49,no.4,2004,pp.431-455;刘华军、闫庆悦:《贸易开放、FDI与中国CO2排放》,《数量经济技术经济研究》2011年第3期。
(27)文中报告的GDP数据均为调整到2000年价格水平的实际产出水平。
(29)Soumyananda Dinda,“Environmental Kuznets Curve Hypothesis:A Survey,” Ecological Economics,vol.49,no.4,2004,pp.431-455.
(30)Brian R.Copeland and M.Scott Taylor,“North-South Trade and the Environment,” The Quarterly Journal of Economics,vol.109,no.3,1994,pp.755-787.
(31)Philippe Michel and Gilles Rotillon,“Disutility of Pollution and Endogenous Growth,” Environmental and Resource Economics,vol.6,no.3,1995,pp.279-300.
(32)William A.Brock and M.Scott Taylor,“Economic Growth and the Environment:A Review of Theory and Empirics,” in Handbook of Economic Growth.vol.1,Elsevier,2005,pp.1749-1821.
(33)参见Chong-En Bai,Chang-Tai Hsieh and Yingyi Qian,“The Return to Capital in China,” National Bureau of Economic Research,no.w12755,2006.
(34)参见L.Brandt and X.Zhu,“Accounting for China's Growth,” IZA Working Paper,2010;Yan Xu and Shu Yu,“Total Factor Productivity among Cities in China:Estimation and Explanation,” Economics Program Working Paper Series,2012,pp.12-101;Jianhua Zhang,Chunxia Jiang and Peng Wang,“Total Factor Productivity and China's Miraculous Growth:An Empirical Analysis,” Available at SSRN 2456009,2014.
(37)本文将k0设定为0.2乘以稳态时的k,以对应中国2012年与1997年的资本存量比(6∶1)。
(38)Z.Song,K.Storesletten and F.Zilibotti,“Growing like China,” American Economic Review,vol.101,no.1,2001,pp.196-233.
(39)图3—8中数据全部来自于模型生成的数值模拟结果,用于展现模拟的数据趋势,因此并无具体单位。
(40)欧盟国家环境治理支出在GDP中比重数据来源于https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/Environmental_protection_expenditure_accounts,2019年5月22日。
②Nancy L.Stokey,“Are There Limits to Growth?” International Economic Review,vol.39,no.1,1998,pp.1-31;James Andreoni and A.Levinson,“The Simple Analytics of the Environmental Kuznets Curve,” Journal of Public Economics,vol.80,no.2,2001,pp.269-286;Lopez Ramon,“The Environment as a Factor of Production:The Effects of Economic Growth and Trade Liberalization,” Journal of Environmental Economics & Management,vol.27,no.2,2004,pp.163-184.
③(36)William A.Brock and M.S.Taylor,“The Green Solow Model,” Journal of Economic Growth,vol.15,no.2,2010,pp.127-153.
④使用Matlab编程语言配合Dynare动态优化模型求解程序模块进行数值模拟分析。
⑤参见G.M.Grossman and A.B.Krueger,“Environmental Impacts of a North American Free Trade Agreement,” in P.Garber,ed.,The US-Mexico Free Trade Agreement,Cambridge:MIT Press,1994.
⑥Paul M.Romer,“The Origins of Endogenous Growth,” Journal of Economic Perspectives,vol.8,no.1,1994,pp.3-22.
⑦Gene M.Grossman and Alan B.Krueger,“Economic Growth and the Environment,” The Quarterly Journal of Economics,vol.110,no.2,1995,pp.353-377;Thomas M.Selden and Daqing Song,“Environmental Quality and Development:Is There a Kuznets Curve for Air Pollution Emissions?” Journal of Environmental Economics and Management,vol.27,no.2,1994,pp.147-162.
⑧Kankesu,Jayanthakumaran,Reetu Verma and Ying Liu,“CO2 Emissions,Energy Consumption,Trade and Income:A Comparative Analysis of China and India,” Energy Policy,vol.42,2012,pp.450-460.
⑨Kakali Kanjilal and Sajal Ghosh,“Environmental Kuznets Curve for India:Evidence from Tests for Cointegration with Unknown Structural Breaks,” Energy Policy,vol.56,2013,pp.509-515.
⑩林伯强、蒋竺均:《中国二氧化碳的环境库兹涅茨曲线预测及影响因素分析》,《管理世界》2009年第4期。
(11)魏巍贤、杨芳:《技术进步对中国二氧化碳排放的影响》,《统计研究》2010年第7期。
(12)许广月、宋德勇:《中国碳排放环境库兹涅茨曲线的实证研究——基于省域面板数据》,《中国工业经济》2010年第5期。
(13)涂正革:《工业二氧化硫排放的影子价格:一个新的分析框架》,《经济学(季刊)》2009年第1期。
(14)Tao Song,Tingguo Zheng and Lianjun Tong,“An Empirical Test of the Environmental Kuznets Curve in China:A Panel Cointegration Approach,” China Economic Review,vol.19,no.3,2008,pp.381-392.
(15)符淼、黄灼明:《我国经济发展阶段和环境污染的库兹涅茨关系》,《中国工业经济》2008年第6期。
(16)Junyi Shen,“A Simultaneous Estimation of Environmental Kuznets Curve:Evidence from China,” China Economic Review,vol.17,no.4,2006,pp.383-394.
(17)包群、彭水军:《经济增长与环境污染:基于面板数据的联立方程估计》,《世界经济》2006年第11期。
(18)(22)朱平辉、袁加军、曾五一:《中国工业环境库兹涅茨曲线分析——基于空间面板模型的经验研究》,《中国工业经济》2010年第6期。
(19)王敏、黄滢:《中国的环境污染与经济增长》,《经济学(季刊)》2015年第2期。
(20)陈诗一、陈登科:《雾霾污染、政府治理与经济高质量发展》,《经济研究》2018年第2期。
(21)符淼:《我国环境库兹涅茨曲线:形态、拐点和影响因素》,《数量经济技术经济研究》2008年第11期。
(23)J.He and H.Wang,“Economic Structure,Development Policy and Environmental Quality:An Empirical Analysis of Environmental Kuznets Curves with Chinese Municipal Data,” Ecological Economics,vol.76,2012,pp.49-59.
(24)(28)涂正革:《能源安全与中国节能的现实路径》 ,《华中师范大学学报(人文社会科学版)》2012年第1期。
(25)Ming Zhang,et al.,“Decomposition of Energy-Related CO2 Emission over 1991-2006 in China,” Ecological Economics,vol.68,no.7,2009,pp.2122-2128;王锋、吴丽华、杨超:《中国经济发展中碳排放增长的驱动因素研究》,《经济研究》2010年第2期;涂正革、谌仁俊:《工业化、城镇化的动态边际碳排放量研究——基于LMDI“两层完全分解法”的分析框架》,《中国工业经济》2013年第9期。
(26)David I.Stern and Michael S.Common,“Is There an Environmental Kuznets Curve for Sulfur?” Journal of Environmental Economics and Management,vol.42,no.2,2001,pp.162-178;William T.Harbaugh,Arik Levinson,and David Molloy Wilson,“Reexamining the Empirical Evidence for an Environmental Kuznets Curve,” Review of Economics and Statistics,vol,84,no.3,2002,pp.541-551;Soumyananda Dinda,“Environmental Kuznets Curve Hypothesis:A Survey,” Ecological Economics,vol.49,no.4,2004,pp.431-455;刘华军、闫庆悦:《贸易开放、FDI与中国CO2排放》,《数量经济技术经济研究》2011年第3期。
(27)文中报告的GDP数据均为调整到2000年价格水平的实际产出水平。
(29)Soumyananda Dinda,“Environmental Kuznets Curve Hypothesis:A Survey,” Ecological Economics,vol.49,no.4,2004,pp.431-455.
(30)Brian R.Copeland and M.Scott Taylor,“North-South Trade and the Environment,” The Quarterly Journal of Economics,vol.109,no.3,1994,pp.755-787.
(31)Philippe Michel and Gilles Rotillon,“Disutility of Pollution and Endogenous Growth,” Environmental and Resource Economics,vol.6,no.3,1995,pp.279-300.
(32)William A.Brock and M.Scott Taylor,“Economic Growth and the Environment:A Review of Theory and Empirics,” in Handbook of Economic Growth.vol.1,Elsevier,2005,pp.1749-1821.
(33)参见Chong-En Bai,Chang-Tai Hsieh and Yingyi Qian,“The Return to Capital in China,” National Bureau of Economic Research,no.w12755,2006.
(34)参见L.Brandt and X.Zhu,“Accounting for China's Growth,” IZA Working Paper,2010;Yan Xu and Shu Yu,“Total Factor Productivity among Cities in China:Estimation and Explanation,” Economics Program Working Paper Series,2012,pp.12-101;Jianhua Zhang,Chunxia Jiang and Peng Wang,“Total Factor Productivity and China's Miraculous Growth:An Empirical Analysis,” Available at SSRN 2456009,2014.
(37)本文将k0设定为0.2乘以稳态时的k,以对应中国2012年与1997年的资本存量比(6∶1)。
(38)Z.Song,K.Storesletten and F.Zilibotti,“Growing like China,” American Economic Review,vol.101,no.1,2001,pp.196-233.
(39)图3—8中数据全部来自于模型生成的数值模拟结果,用于展现模拟的数据趋势,因此并无具体单位。
(40)欧盟国家环境治理支出在GDP中比重数据来源于https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/Environmental_protection_expenditure_accounts,2019年5月22日。
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